If you go to NYT Biden's path the victory is paved with 0.2% leads, while Trump's undecideds are sitting at +6% and +11%... but you have to understand.
Whelp... this being 2020 I'm just going to stop fighting the fates and assume the results will be disappointing to everyone... Biden skulks into the White House and the Senate remains Republican. But at this point that's based on nothing but pure augury, by which I mean 538.
If that happens, looking forward the the love and gratitude that will be showered on White Men for saving the union.
Whelp... I'm calling it a night... 207 Biden to 148 Trump.
I think the post-mortems are a bit early, and I expect to wake up to a Biden lead... but I'm concerned that the underperformance of Biden will leave the gate open for challenges in a state or two. Needed a clean win (one way or another) and this doesn't look like that. Dang.
PBS is getting that Hillary Supporter on the convention floor look. Soldiering on, but voices quavering and confidence shaken. Everyone seems pre-occupied and missing marks/talking points. Earpieces must be buzzing.
PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in.
Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.
Different feeds then... I haven't seen any 'smart' conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence... I've seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.
In fact among the 'smart' non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath... and he's an actual data kinda guy.
Didn't make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that's distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county... so have to organize across the entire state as well. It's a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.
On “Election Day, Part Deux: Recap, Open Thread, and Latest News”
Let's see if this embeds:
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The only demographic that didn't increase their support for Trump. He lost 5% in that single demographic.
[Posted by Matt Bruenig, noted leftist...assuming the data from Bruenig isn't made-up or all that]
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Closing in on Mid-night I thought I saw Karl Rove running around Fox without his shirt on...
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Heh, there's Stare Decisis and there's No Backsies. Both are equally hallowed traditions.
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Yep.
If you go to NYT Biden's path the victory is paved with 0.2% leads, while Trump's undecideds are sitting at +6% and +11%... but you have to understand.
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Oh yeah, I almost had a send tweet moment with that too.
But this is a safe space, right?
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Except for Brandon, he's getting everything he wanted in 2020.
~The Fates
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One of the networks (forget which) put up a graphic *before* polls closed that showed voter motivation.
Repubs:
Voting FOR Trump: 79%
Voting AGAINST Biden: 21%
Dems
Voting FOR Biden: 51%
Voting AGAINST Trump: 49%
That was my first, "huh" moment of many.
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Whelp... this being 2020 I'm just going to stop fighting the fates and assume the results will be disappointing to everyone... Biden skulks into the White House and the Senate remains Republican. But at this point that's based on nothing but pure augury, by which I mean 538.
If that happens, looking forward the the love and gratitude that will be showered on White Men for saving the union.
On “Election Day 2020: Open Thread, Breaking News, and Running Discussion”
Whelp... I'm calling it a night... 207 Biden to 148 Trump.
I think the post-mortems are a bit early, and I expect to wake up to a Biden lead... but I'm concerned that the underperformance of Biden will leave the gate open for challenges in a state or two. Needed a clean win (one way or another) and this doesn't look like that. Dang.
"
PBS is getting that Hillary Supporter on the convention floor look. Soldiering on, but voices quavering and confidence shaken. Everyone seems pre-occupied and missing marks/talking points. Earpieces must be buzzing.
"
Is it weird yet?
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If Trump wins because of the two-fist-two-step to YMCA I'm going to have to turn in my Time Capsule Prognostication Card.
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They let Karl Rove back on Fox on Election night?
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Never had that before, looks like something I'd like.
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Yeah, it's probably mostly FL... I bought high on FL when polling was showing a big Biden spread among seniors. Looks like I bought peak FL.
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Ok, I know it's *very* early... but I keep saying "huh" a lot. Like about as often as I said "huh" in 2016.
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PBS Called Warner (VA Senate) with a huge graphic showing Warner behind 45% to Gade 55% and <1% in. Probably true, but man, the execution is way off... get your graphics aligned with your call people.
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I'm gonna have to move to something stronger than Kombucha... maybe some Drambuie - orange for American Solidarity Party
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Invoke the originalist meaning of First Past the Post.
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Biden 3
Trump 8
Not looking good for Biden...
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Is it over yet?
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Different feeds then... I haven't seen any 'smart' conservatives calling it for Trump with any confidence... I've seen the usual sort of rallying/cheering/bucking-up the faithful types of calls.
In fact among the 'smart' non-Lincoln conservatives Henry Olsen predicts a blood-bath... and he's an actual data kinda guy.
"
ASP made it onto 8 official ballots.
Didn't make it onto 9 at all. The other 33 are a flavor of write-in. Definitely requires an organization that's distributed in all 50 states and within those states many require signatures from every county... so have to organize across the entire state as well. It's a process that requires actual ground troops, not simply an idea and some $$.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: Global Pandemic Edition”
Oh sure... wait for *all* the pre-election polls to come in.