Thanks, I've prepared for a few years of winter; I guess the question will be whether the Cubs can develop a long-term approach. They've got good management, but tanking a team, trading anything not nailed down for prospects, and hoarding assets for the big push is not as difficult as finding a sustainable path. Worst of luck with that.
Unfortunately, I was at the Cards/Cubs game Wednesday where the little bears clinched a post-season spot (though thankfully not the division). Your conclusions are just and fair.
Yes, the Seven Years War took place from the Philippines to India to West Africa to Europe to North America. I don't know why a war in the Eastern Mediterranean would count as a world war unless any war where the three continents meet becomes a world war.
A2: It appears to be a map that posits language/tribal groupings as of 1844 as if no European interference, but it does assume Arabization.
It also appears to me that there is an attempt to balance size. The Arab states appear to be more fragmented than I would expect and I wonder if they are supposed to represent Ottoman vilayets. Much of sub-saharran Africa at that time was comprised of mini-states averaging about 30 miles across, so these have been combined in some fashion. If feels like the Sahara should be visible to me.
On the broader counterfactuals, Brad de Long started a post on why no industrial revolution in the global south, which reduced to its essentials was a lack of sufficient temperate zones to create agricultural surpluses to support a more complicated economy. The same could be asserted about state formation, and I assume in this scenario maize isn't brought by Europeans to Africa, which created the population boom that enabled the Atlantic slave trade. Africa avoids the negatives of European intervention, but also the positives that provided the opportunity to escape the Malthusian trap.
This is not how real people think though. I personally know Trump supporters and they are not engaging in something at a meta level. I also, partly because I've been wearing my "George Washington for President" t-shirt, have been getting into discussions with total strangers about how anguished they are about this election and appreciate the humor.
And this all seems familiar to me from living through the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race:
Unfavorabilities:
David Duke: 67%
Edwin Edwards: 59%
Clinton and Trump have had similar negatives, through RCP currently has an average of Trump: 58.6%; Clinton 55.4%. In my experience, the typical dynamics of an election are turned upside down when a broken primary foists two unpopular candidates on the electorate. First issue is how many people refuse to vote in such an election. Second issue, what are people against?
Does voting for a third-party candidate, like for a former Republican governor, constitute not being put off by white ethnocentrism? Frankly, at 48%, I think Trump wins the election because Libertarians are likely to have a big year. I don't think its a three party race, but think the Ls will get at least 5% from Republicans signaling.
Disagree with your premise though if you are saying actual voters are thinking in terms of "white ethnocentrism." Trump is a personality, and he's largely been given the stamp of approval from celebrity culture.
People can say they have a mandate all they want. Bush II was saved by 9/11 IMHO. My main point though, probably in part because I don't see Trump winning at this point, is that it is Clinton's degree of success that is most important.
I do not know what happened, but it is part of the police officer's job to take evidence. It shouldn't take priority over life and limb, but barring that I think the picture needed to be taken to record the scene. Probably exhibit one in having the child removed from parents.
What's the significance of Trump getting 40% or 48%? I'm not sure there is much. I think it will be significant if Clinton gets under or over 50% to the extent it will tar her as an unpopular President elevated by a more divisive figure. Probably indirectly impacts coattails and the nature of her Presidency.
For Republicans, if Clinton is under 50%, as in Trump plus Johnson would have beaten Clinton, then I think there will be a fight about what lesson should be drawn (Trump wrong messenger vs wrong message). If Clinton is over 50%, the "establishment" will have more incentives and stronger hand to redirect the party, even if that only means that they will unite behind a Presidential candidate earlier in the 2020 election cycle to avoid the outsider divide-and-conquer scenario.
The problem is that while natural people don't like artificial people, when it comes time to bring a criminal prosecution, juries don't like to convict the type of real people that get indicted, people at the bottom of the corporate pyramid like themselves. At least that was one of the explanations a lawyer involved in prosecuting bank fraud after the Great Recession gave based upon post-trial jury interviews.
In your analogy, its the bank employees that held up the bank, partly because their employers were dicks, but also because they wanted more money for their job. But in the process they variously used bank customers as screens during the heists putting the customers at risk at harm. But the customers were not robbed, nor did someone attempt to rob them.
The higher the culpability goes, the more likely its the bank employees holding up the stockholders.
Sounds right, though is part of the underlying story that conventional banking is having serious problems due to low interest rates or low savings rates, customer rejection of fees, and/ or competition from non-traditional financial services?
When I went to access my safe-deposit box a few weeks ago, the bank's internal controls had changed so that I had to go to a service desk where she pretended to enter important information while receiving instructions on what services to offer me.. Four (mortgage refinance, home equity loan, credit card, and automobile savings account) during which I became progressively more annoyed at each "opportunity." I felt bad for her, but I was getting the distinct impression that if I didn't start signaling my displeasure, the opportunities might have been endless.
There was another awkward moment on Morning Joe today where Joe ridiculed Johnson's follow-up that he would cut a deal with Putin to resolve the Syria crisis and Joe ridiculed this idea and turned to the panel's expert (Spencer Ackerman I believe) to confirm how insane this idea was, and the expert laughed and politely pointed out that cutting a deal with Putin is what the Obama administration is currently trying to do.
Very good Atlantic article. My children attend schools desegregated by court order with poor blacks being bused to the the white(*) side of town. My observations had been that it was no longer working or helping and it might be causing serious harm, which I still think is true, but stopping might be worse. The most haunting line for me was the Judge who suffered under Jim Crow and removed the desegregation order: “The answer cannot be ‘The only way to get good schools is to have white people in them.’ ”
(*) White meaning non African-American. African immigrants won't live on the non-white side of town.
The NYTimes was being understandably lazy, there really was little reason to know anything about Aleppo until it touched on a political horse race. Certainly Morning Joe had no reason to cover the subject while they had Donald Trump on a line.
I think the initial coverage had to do with making fun of his name and laughing at how personally demeaning his conduct was perceived. I think it tagged closer to public exposure than affair.
There is a kernel of truth in his explanation that Laotians have an interest in learning about cultures in nearby countries, but it was not a good analogy to the U.S. unless his point was that Laos is simply a distant, unimportant country. Which was off-message from his assertion that the U.S. is and can be a force for good in the world.
Closer to the reality, there are more Laotians in the United than any other country in the world other than Laos, and very likely in academia, the U.S. probably has some of the best, if not the best, resources on Laotian culture, politics, history, etc. in the world. No need to apologize or rationalize.
Does buying a gift off of an Amazon gift list make all of the difference in the world, or is it all just a slippery slope to hell?
(I think gift cards are situationally appropriate -- distant relatives, acquaintances, closer relatives that one only sees for an hour or two on Christmas each year)
I've read Rushdie's Midnight's Children and Satanic Verses, and wouldn't consider his writing to promote "empathy" in the way the more traditional 19th century novelists explored human psychology, like Tolstoy. Rushdie was writing more about India in the first, or the idea of India, or something.
it’s interesting how often artists in particular were screwed, sometimes in favor of “writers.”
Most of the link though is about Kirby, and thus Lee, who AFAIK never sought any ownership of any of the characters he helped create as a Marvel employee, and he wasn't simply a writer anyway, but at various times: editor-in-chief, art director and publisher (i.e., management). When Kirby (and Joe Simon) had their own comic publishing company, they used the same work-for-hire arrangements that "screwed" the talent. And arguably by claiming creation of Spider-Man, Kirby (or his heirs) were the ones trying to screw over Steve Ditko.
You're not looking at incorrectly, other than there was probably a not insignificant chance that Trump would have used his public remarks to complement Mexico on its great Taco Bell tacos, made out of Doritos even.
On “The Cubs Win the Pennant!”
Thanks, I've prepared for a few years of winter; I guess the question will be whether the Cubs can develop a long-term approach. They've got good management, but tanking a team, trading anything not nailed down for prospects, and hoarding assets for the big push is not as difficult as finding a sustainable path. Worst of luck with that.
"
Unfortunately, I was at the Cards/Cubs game Wednesday where the little bears clinched a post-season spot (though thankfully not the division). Your conclusions are just and fair.
On “Linky Friday #184: Here On Planet Earth”
Yes, the Seven Years War took place from the Philippines to India to West Africa to Europe to North America. I don't know why a war in the Eastern Mediterranean would count as a world war unless any war where the three continents meet becomes a world war.
"
A2: It appears to be a map that posits language/tribal groupings as of 1844 as if no European interference, but it does assume Arabization.
It also appears to me that there is an attempt to balance size. The Arab states appear to be more fragmented than I would expect and I wonder if they are supposed to represent Ottoman vilayets. Much of sub-saharran Africa at that time was comprised of mini-states averaging about 30 miles across, so these have been combined in some fashion. If feels like the Sahara should be visible to me.
On the broader counterfactuals, Brad de Long started a post on why no industrial revolution in the global south, which reduced to its essentials was a lack of sufficient temperate zones to create agricultural surpluses to support a more complicated economy. The same could be asserted about state formation, and I assume in this scenario maize isn't brought by Europeans to Africa, which created the population boom that enabled the Atlantic slave trade. Africa avoids the negatives of European intervention, but also the positives that provided the opportunity to escape the Malthusian trap.
On “Morning Ed: Europe {2016.09.15.Th}”
This is not how real people think though. I personally know Trump supporters and they are not engaging in something at a meta level. I also, partly because I've been wearing my "George Washington for President" t-shirt, have been getting into discussions with total strangers about how anguished they are about this election and appreciate the humor.
And this all seems familiar to me from living through the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race:
Unfavorabilities:
David Duke: 67%
Edwin Edwards: 59%
Clinton and Trump have had similar negatives, through RCP currently has an average of Trump: 58.6%; Clinton 55.4%. In my experience, the typical dynamics of an election are turned upside down when a broken primary foists two unpopular candidates on the electorate. First issue is how many people refuse to vote in such an election. Second issue, what are people against?
"
Does voting for a third-party candidate, like for a former Republican governor, constitute not being put off by white ethnocentrism? Frankly, at 48%, I think Trump wins the election because Libertarians are likely to have a big year. I don't think its a three party race, but think the Ls will get at least 5% from Republicans signaling.
Disagree with your premise though if you are saying actual voters are thinking in terms of "white ethnocentrism." Trump is a personality, and he's largely been given the stamp of approval from celebrity culture.
"
People can say they have a mandate all they want. Bush II was saved by 9/11 IMHO. My main point though, probably in part because I don't see Trump winning at this point, is that it is Clinton's degree of success that is most important.
"
I do not know what happened, but it is part of the police officer's job to take evidence. It shouldn't take priority over life and limb, but barring that I think the picture needed to be taken to record the scene. Probably exhibit one in having the child removed from parents.
"
Downside: Christmas ghosts.
"
What's the significance of Trump getting 40% or 48%? I'm not sure there is much. I think it will be significant if Clinton gets under or over 50% to the extent it will tar her as an unpopular President elevated by a more divisive figure. Probably indirectly impacts coattails and the nature of her Presidency.
For Republicans, if Clinton is under 50%, as in Trump plus Johnson would have beaten Clinton, then I think there will be a fight about what lesson should be drawn (Trump wrong messenger vs wrong message). If Clinton is over 50%, the "establishment" will have more incentives and stronger hand to redirect the party, even if that only means that they will unite behind a Presidential candidate earlier in the 2020 election cycle to avoid the outsider divide-and-conquer scenario.
On “The Stagecoach That Robs You”
The problem is that while natural people don't like artificial people, when it comes time to bring a criminal prosecution, juries don't like to convict the type of real people that get indicted, people at the bottom of the corporate pyramid like themselves. At least that was one of the explanations a lawyer involved in prosecuting bank fraud after the Great Recession gave based upon post-trial jury interviews.
"
In your analogy, its the bank employees that held up the bank, partly because their employers were dicks, but also because they wanted more money for their job. But in the process they variously used bank customers as screens during the heists putting the customers at risk at harm. But the customers were not robbed, nor did someone attempt to rob them.
The higher the culpability goes, the more likely its the bank employees holding up the stockholders.
"
Sounds right, though is part of the underlying story that conventional banking is having serious problems due to low interest rates or low savings rates, customer rejection of fees, and/ or competition from non-traditional financial services?
"
When I went to access my safe-deposit box a few weeks ago, the bank's internal controls had changed so that I had to go to a service desk where she pretended to enter important information while receiving instructions on what services to offer me.. Four (mortgage refinance, home equity loan, credit card, and automobile savings account) during which I became progressively more annoyed at each "opportunity." I felt bad for her, but I was getting the distinct impression that if I didn't start signaling my displeasure, the opportunities might have been endless.
On “Morning Ed: World Politics {2016.09.08.Th}”
There was another awkward moment on Morning Joe today where Joe ridiculed Johnson's follow-up that he would cut a deal with Putin to resolve the Syria crisis and Joe ridiculed this idea and turned to the panel's expert (Spencer Ackerman I believe) to confirm how insane this idea was, and the expert laughed and politely pointed out that cutting a deal with Putin is what the Obama administration is currently trying to do.
"
Very good Atlantic article. My children attend schools desegregated by court order with poor blacks being bused to the the white(*) side of town. My observations had been that it was no longer working or helping and it might be causing serious harm, which I still think is true, but stopping might be worse. The most haunting line for me was the Judge who suffered under Jim Crow and removed the desegregation order: “The answer cannot be ‘The only way to get good schools is to have white people in them.’ ”
(*) White meaning non African-American. African immigrants won't live on the non-white side of town.
"
The NYTimes was being understandably lazy, there really was little reason to know anything about Aleppo until it touched on a political horse race. Certainly Morning Joe had no reason to cover the subject while they had Donald Trump on a line.
"
I think the initial coverage had to do with making fun of his name and laughing at how personally demeaning his conduct was perceived. I think it tagged closer to public exposure than affair.
"
There is a kernel of truth in his explanation that Laotians have an interest in learning about cultures in nearby countries, but it was not a good analogy to the U.S. unless his point was that Laos is simply a distant, unimportant country. Which was off-message from his assertion that the U.S. is and can be a force for good in the world.
Closer to the reality, there are more Laotians in the United than any other country in the world other than Laos, and very likely in academia, the U.S. probably has some of the best, if not the best, resources on Laotian culture, politics, history, etc. in the world. No need to apologize or rationalize.
"
So, at least he didn't call us stupid then.
On “Morning Ed: Society {2016.09.06.T}”
an Amazon gift card is nothing but *LICENSE*.
Does buying a gift off of an Amazon gift list make all of the difference in the world, or is it all just a slippery slope to hell?
(I think gift cards are situationally appropriate -- distant relatives, acquaintances, closer relatives that one only sees for an hour or two on Christmas each year)
"
I've read Rushdie's Midnight's Children and Satanic Verses, and wouldn't consider his writing to promote "empathy" in the way the more traditional 19th century novelists explored human psychology, like Tolstoy. Rushdie was writing more about India in the first, or the idea of India, or something.
"
it’s interesting how often artists in particular were screwed, sometimes in favor of “writers.”
Most of the link though is about Kirby, and thus Lee, who AFAIK never sought any ownership of any of the characters he helped create as a Marvel employee, and he wasn't simply a writer anyway, but at various times: editor-in-chief, art director and publisher (i.e., management). When Kirby (and Joe Simon) had their own comic publishing company, they used the same work-for-hire arrangements that "screwed" the talent. And arguably by claiming creation of Spider-Man, Kirby (or his heirs) were the ones trying to screw over Steve Ditko.
On “Morning Ed: Politics {2016.08.30.W}”
You're not looking at incorrectly, other than there was probably a not insignificant chance that Trump would have used his public remarks to complement Mexico on its great Taco Bell tacos, made out of Doritos even.
"
So security is just another word for nothing left to lose?
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.