From what I've seen (MD and OH) the lotteries are open to anyone who has been vaccinated as of the drawing date...
Do any have a cut-off date, that is, a lottery that excludes people who were vaccinated in, say, JAN-MAR?
That would be dumb if there were... but I could see from the reporting how it sounds like they are targeting the group who isn't yet vaxed, when as far as I can tell, it's targeting the general vaxxed populi and the stragglers are simply missing out on chances each time there's a draw.
But given the dreadful communications around all things virus/vaccine, I wouldn't be surprised if we were encouraging people to hold-out for a smaller pool of eligibles when all they are doing is missing drawings and joining an ever increasing pool. Possibly too one of the states has foolishly designed just such a system (but I haven't seen it yet).
Well, I come from a proud tradition that rejects the mumbo-jumbo of this pseudo-science and instead has a robust personality practice based around the humors. Based.
My perhaps more serious comment would be that our humors based personality is about recognizing the weaknesses of our personality types so that we might work cross-wise against our 'personality.' What I notice about a lot of the personality studies these days is that it's about embracing your 'true' enneagram number or your M-B type. I prefer blend the old and the new, so I'm a better INTJ than the rest of you because I know that those are my weaknesses that I have to counter to be a better person. Which might be the most INTJ comment ever. QED.
Need's a good catch phrase: he hits a target, then pops out of hiding on TikTok saying Fauci Ouchi Nowchi to some kpop hit.
Or something like that, I'm just spitballin' here.
Slightly more seriously, I'm just surpized at the Masktastrophe that Biden's team let happen... thought for sure we were going to walk through easy milestones to 200M vaccinations by July 4th with easing restrictions along the way to some sort of under-promise/over-deliver festival culminating July 4 weekend.
Instead, we'll hit the same targets, but be informed we as a people have greatly disappointed our government.
It's getting easier... but only in the past week or so would I call it Trivial in VA... so I expect we'll see an on-going stream of people getting vaccinated all summer... and an up-tick in the fall.
But for my daughters (12/17) who just got their second dose today... the process 3-weeks ago was not trivial... and they navigated direct to a specific Walgreens after using the Govt. Site that asked for your zip code... then told you nope!... would you like to enter another zip-code? Nope, none in that one! Want to try another zip-code? eventually they put in a zipcode for an area that we never go to... but is only 8 miles away. So... trivial? We were being actively told that there were no vaccines in our Zip.
My 17yo signed-up with the state... she was never notified that she was eligible or that there were options in an 8-mile radius.
Now? Signs at the local Costco that you can get a free vaccine... but only in the past week.
We're just now entering the the *beginning* of 'trivial' phase... an important part of trivial phase is not telling people they are idiots for not already having a vaccine that is "trivial to get"
edit: and this is obviously just for one micro-zone... multiply by 1M and I have no idea where it's trivial and where it's almost trivial, and where it's still convoluted.
Right... when my wife was taking the girls for their second... there was a walk-in (at a Walgreens) who was very concerned about whether it was 'really free' ... we're inundated with FREE but not free, so it's absolutely reasonable that folks who are exposed to FREE not free might question the whole FREE.
Do a better job making it free.
I'm also confused by the whole insurance thing from a different angle... my sign-ups asked for insurance info, but we never gave it, and it didn't force us to give it... so, why include it as it's very clear that in some cases - who knows which - the insurance company aren't being reimbursed on a dose-by-dose basis.
Make it easy, confirm it's free, make it a little easier, and don't turn it into a political validation step.
I suppose this is another of those matters where we absolutely *know* that herd immunity is achieved at exactly 70% of fully vaccinated people... Not some conspiracy theory that a combination of 66% of vaccinated adults (currently at 62%) plus another substantial overlap of people who have had the virus and natural antibodies, plus overwhelming vaccination of at-risk people = public health mitigation/success.
I'm pro-vaccine... got it myself and for all my children (except 6yo who isn't eligible) ... and we've known that vaccination rates were going to drop in the summer as Covid seasonally 'disappears' ... but we'll still see vaccine rates go up over the summer... probably topping 200M first doses... maybe hitting 230M by the start of school (maybe more) as it gets ever easier to get one.
But execution matters... and the goal should be focusing on making the vaccine easier (and easier) to get - which it has been - and emphasizing the incredible gains we've made since March (which we've made!)... and reminding people to get ready for Fall where we'll (inevitably) see a bump (hopefully a small one)... by making it even easier to get a vaccine - hopefully from your Dr.
But doomcasting that the population is failing Govt goals is still bad execution...
And using success to try to score political points is also bad execution... but probably the primary motivation.
I think there's an opening for a political narrative that's right of center on some cultural issues, left of center on other cultural issues, and left of center on some economic issues and right of center on others.
Which is to say... the current duopoly is ossified into untenable positions across the spectrum. And as I've been saying for 5-6 years, whomever get's there first, wins.
I wrote a piece on American Solidarity party last cycle... that would be one example of how a realignment party mixes/matches policies that confound the simple narratives.
But if your question is whether one has to resurrect Reagan or chase libertarians or rage with the Trumpian ID? Then I say none of the above.
Vanity Fair has dropped the investigative reporting on the matter:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
"As officials at the meeting discussed what they could share with the public, they were advised by Christopher Park, the director of the State Department’s Biological Policy Staff in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, not to say anything that would point to the U.S. government’s own role in gain-of-function research, according to documentation of the meeting obtained by Vanity Fair."
...
"Park, who in 2017 had been involved in lifting a U.S. government moratorium on funding for gain-of-function research, was not the only official to warn the State Department investigators against digging in sensitive places."
Oh, and 528 contributes with these weighty thoughts from science journal editors:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-it-matter-if-there-was-a-lab-leak/
"You know, I think it is important, and I’m, like, super interested in this stuff. But I don’t know if knowing the source of this emerging pandemic is going to stop us from preventing the next one, because they seem to come from different animals for different reasons. "
~Amy Maxem, Sr. Reporter for Nature
Eh... I don't subscribe to that... there are plenty of options, just that there are too many path dependent choices driving options and too few mechanisms to unstick the previous paths. It's a 'simple' people/process/path problem that's the bigger reality in politics than 'ideas'
Yeah... on the one hand, Glenn Youngkin (recently) CEO of Carlyle Group is probably friends with lots of NOVA voters... on the other hand, what exactly is the ex-CEO of the Carlyle Group going to do to connect with the rest of the voters?
Will he go the way of ex-Bain Capital CEO's Tribune to the people or forge a new ex-Carlyle Group CEO to the rabble? Either way, I don't think there's any Republican realignment in the offing that's led by Bain/Carlyle folks.
I mean, I know a lot of VA Republican operators and a couple of Pols... they are all pre-Trump figures... they have no idea what Trump is, was, or will be. They are the reason there's a Trump at all. So... hard for me to see these folks navigating their way out of this mess.
Personally I don't think the Republican apparatus knows what 'good candidates' or 'good policy objectives' would be to win a realignment... but I suppose we can see what Glenn Youngkin comes up with as a trial balloon.
At the moment his website doesn't have any info other than the obligatory picture of him and his family... and how to give them money. But eventually we'll see what VA Republican party thinks is a winning message from their curated pick.
Right, as the great Philosopher @Steak-umm points out, we have an epistemology problem.
"science itself isn't "true" it's a constantly refining process used to uncover truths based in material reality and that process is still full of misteaks. neil just posts ridiculous sound bites like this for clout and he has no respect for epistemology"
There are bi-lateral leverage points... Chinese research benefits from American Grant $$, scientists need and want access to Western networks of Scholarship, Education, IP, and funding. It isn't a matter of imposing US will upon China, but recognizing that the international standards and protocols that enable them to claim to have a BSL4 facility so that they can have access to all the support you need to run a BSL4 lab requires that you participate in the protocols.
Else, the funding, the IP, the exchanges, the networks, etc. etc. can be sanctioned.
That wouldn't necessarily stop China dead in their tracks if they wanted to go solo... but there's leverage... and reasonable leverage at that.
But that's also partly what Michael means, I think, by Biden blowing it... they aren't going to collaborate with Team Spy. So we've effectively closed the door on the Science Community sorting this out themselves.
Intelligence reports will always include all the possible options with discussions about weighted probabilities that decision makers can use to make decisions. It will be vague by design and I'm willing to bet that the 'answer' will be, we can't say for sure what happened, but it is in everyone's interest to make sure that all BSL4 labs have more funding.
Alternately, using NIH, CDC, WHO and others would hopefully provide a collaborative analysis... and, if healthy, would point out failures (if any) for the good of the praxis.
However, there's strong temptation to NIH, CDC, WHO, and other players who are possibly complicit in 'unleashing the worst natural disaster in the modern era' (by accident, mind you) to make sure that the institutions are protected first. Not to mention institutional capture by not only the practitioners, but the government(s) themselves. I mean, it's hard to imagine WHO as having any credibility in any investigation ever again.
Journalists might be a counter-balance to this, but a big part of what's being discussed (or not discussed) above is that the journalists aren't providing a counter-balance to this. Some of what 'indie' reporters have pointed out is that the Lancet article supporting the WIV (and originally 'debunking' the Engineered Virus) was sponsored by Dr. Daszak, who is part of EcoHealth Alliance, which funds WIV with grants from NIH - possibly even GOF Engineering. Which is to say, it is possible that Lancet/EcoHealth/NIH may have banal corporate/funding interests in not acknowledging certain things (if they need acknowledging). Again, the paper-trails are there to keep these possible conflicts above the board... but only if our journalism isn't in the business of deciding who the "good guys" and "bad guys" and making sure the good guys win... no matter the science.
So Intelligence is the perfect way to de-fuse the situation by providing a report that comes from 'secret spy soruces' that provides a vague answer that ultimately results in more institutional funding.
Much of the initial science reporting *wasn't* conspiracy theories though... it required a sort of distortion to associate/obfuscate initial reporting with less credible conspiracies. But that's a different audit.
Wuhan Flu is the same distraction if it came from a wet-market vs. a lab leak in Wuhan/China.
I don't think that particular distraction is relevant to this matter...
I acknowledge that Trump's initial bungling of the matter (compared to his middle and late bungling) was hoping to deflect attention away from his bungling.
That isn't an excuse to ignore another institution's bungling, even if Trump's deflection was in bad faith.
Yeah... I suspect an Ox or two may be gored along the way... and I'm not really competent to say who's. BUT, the crew that jumped in to action to suppress any discussion/investigation seem to be the owners of many Oxen.
I still think that's a second order phenomenon as surely the scientific consensus once the fire is out is to have a full investigation, right?
On “Linky Friday: Once More Unto The Breach Edition”
The evolution of Motte/Bailey: Whose Motte, Which Bailey?
Fitting for a Philosophy Grad Student at Notre Dame.
On “Introducing The New Morning Ed”
OT Pivots to video!
Have you considered the Milennial post-edit ironic style? a'la Brad Leone
"
I never thought anyone here was a bot...
On “Vaccination Rates Slow to A Crawl, Worrying Officials”
From what I've seen (MD and OH) the lotteries are open to anyone who has been vaccinated as of the drawing date...
Do any have a cut-off date, that is, a lottery that excludes people who were vaccinated in, say, JAN-MAR?
That would be dumb if there were... but I could see from the reporting how it sounds like they are targeting the group who isn't yet vaxed, when as far as I can tell, it's targeting the general vaxxed populi and the stragglers are simply missing out on chances each time there's a draw.
But given the dreadful communications around all things virus/vaccine, I wouldn't be surprised if we were encouraging people to hold-out for a smaller pool of eligibles when all they are doing is missing drawings and joining an ever increasing pool. Possibly too one of the states has foolishly designed just such a system (but I haven't seen it yet).
On “The Persistent Problems of Personality Tests”
Right, the Plegmatics, Sanguines, Cholerics, Melancholics and the Virtuous Man.
"
Well, I come from a proud tradition that rejects the mumbo-jumbo of this pseudo-science and instead has a robust personality practice based around the humors. Based.
My perhaps more serious comment would be that our humors based personality is about recognizing the weaknesses of our personality types so that we might work cross-wise against our 'personality.' What I notice about a lot of the personality studies these days is that it's about embracing your 'true' enneagram number or your M-B type. I prefer blend the old and the new, so I'm a better INTJ than the rest of you because I know that those are my weaknesses that I have to counter to be a better person. Which might be the most INTJ comment ever. QED.
On “Vaccination Rates Slow to A Crawl, Worrying Officials”
Worse than changing his mind later on... his retcon was a lie.
It was a lie to say he lied because it was a noble lie.
Fauci isn't a cautionary tale about the banality of evil, he's a cautionary tale about the banality of Exec Mgmt.
"
Need's a good catch phrase: he hits a target, then pops out of hiding on TikTok saying Fauci Ouchi Nowchi to some kpop hit.
Or something like that, I'm just spitballin' here.
Slightly more seriously, I'm just surpized at the Masktastrophe that Biden's team let happen... thought for sure we were going to walk through easy milestones to 200M vaccinations by July 4th with easing restrictions along the way to some sort of under-promise/over-deliver festival culminating July 4 weekend.
Instead, we'll hit the same targets, but be informed we as a people have greatly disappointed our government.
"
It's getting easier... but only in the past week or so would I call it Trivial in VA... so I expect we'll see an on-going stream of people getting vaccinated all summer... and an up-tick in the fall.
But for my daughters (12/17) who just got their second dose today... the process 3-weeks ago was not trivial... and they navigated direct to a specific Walgreens after using the Govt. Site that asked for your zip code... then told you nope!... would you like to enter another zip-code? Nope, none in that one! Want to try another zip-code? eventually they put in a zipcode for an area that we never go to... but is only 8 miles away. So... trivial? We were being actively told that there were no vaccines in our Zip.
My 17yo signed-up with the state... she was never notified that she was eligible or that there were options in an 8-mile radius.
Now? Signs at the local Costco that you can get a free vaccine... but only in the past week.
We're just now entering the the *beginning* of 'trivial' phase... an important part of trivial phase is not telling people they are idiots for not already having a vaccine that is "trivial to get"
edit: and this is obviously just for one micro-zone... multiply by 1M and I have no idea where it's trivial and where it's almost trivial, and where it's still convoluted.
"
Right... when my wife was taking the girls for their second... there was a walk-in (at a Walgreens) who was very concerned about whether it was 'really free' ... we're inundated with FREE but not free, so it's absolutely reasonable that folks who are exposed to FREE not free might question the whole FREE.
Do a better job making it free.
I'm also confused by the whole insurance thing from a different angle... my sign-ups asked for insurance info, but we never gave it, and it didn't force us to give it... so, why include it as it's very clear that in some cases - who knows which - the insurance company aren't being reimbursed on a dose-by-dose basis.
Make it easy, confirm it's free, make it a little easier, and don't turn it into a political validation step.
"
Execution matters.
I suppose this is another of those matters where we absolutely *know* that herd immunity is achieved at exactly 70% of fully vaccinated people... Not some conspiracy theory that a combination of 66% of vaccinated adults (currently at 62%) plus another substantial overlap of people who have had the virus and natural antibodies, plus overwhelming vaccination of at-risk people = public health mitigation/success.
I'm pro-vaccine... got it myself and for all my children (except 6yo who isn't eligible) ... and we've known that vaccination rates were going to drop in the summer as Covid seasonally 'disappears' ... but we'll still see vaccine rates go up over the summer... probably topping 200M first doses... maybe hitting 230M by the start of school (maybe more) as it gets ever easier to get one.
But execution matters... and the goal should be focusing on making the vaccine easier (and easier) to get - which it has been - and emphasizing the incredible gains we've made since March (which we've made!)... and reminding people to get ready for Fall where we'll (inevitably) see a bump (hopefully a small one)... by making it even easier to get a vaccine - hopefully from your Dr.
But doomcasting that the population is failing Govt goals is still bad execution...
And using success to try to score political points is also bad execution... but probably the primary motivation.
On “Linky Friday: Lies, Slander, and Calumny Edition”
Good point, just let me know when you want your beer back.
"
I'm nodding along to: "the performative displays of respect for laws and norms and objective truth…all that could safely be dropped"
and then I get to: "the raw authoritarian id of white grievance be exposed and naked and the base would go wild."
And I just see 4 more years.
On “Republicans Are Not Helpless Against Trump”
I think there's an opening for a political narrative that's right of center on some cultural issues, left of center on other cultural issues, and left of center on some economic issues and right of center on others.
Which is to say... the current duopoly is ossified into untenable positions across the spectrum. And as I've been saying for 5-6 years, whomever get's there first, wins.
I wrote a piece on American Solidarity party last cycle... that would be one example of how a realignment party mixes/matches policies that confound the simple narratives.
But if your question is whether one has to resurrect Reagan or chase libertarians or rage with the Trumpian ID? Then I say none of the above.
On “From Buzzfeed News: Anthony Fauci’s Emails Reveal The Pressure That Fell On One Man”
comment in mod for double link.
"
Vanity Fair has dropped the investigative reporting on the matter:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins
"As officials at the meeting discussed what they could share with the public, they were advised by Christopher Park, the director of the State Department’s Biological Policy Staff in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, not to say anything that would point to the U.S. government’s own role in gain-of-function research, according to documentation of the meeting obtained by Vanity Fair."
...
"Park, who in 2017 had been involved in lifting a U.S. government moratorium on funding for gain-of-function research, was not the only official to warn the State Department investigators against digging in sensitive places."
Oh, and 528 contributes with these weighty thoughts from science journal editors:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-it-matter-if-there-was-a-lab-leak/
"You know, I think it is important, and I’m, like, super interested in this stuff. But I don’t know if knowing the source of this emerging pandemic is going to stop us from preventing the next one, because they seem to come from different animals for different reasons. "
~Amy Maxem, Sr. Reporter for Nature
On “Republicans Are Not Helpless Against Trump”
Eh... I don't subscribe to that... there are plenty of options, just that there are too many path dependent choices driving options and too few mechanisms to unstick the previous paths. It's a 'simple' people/process/path problem that's the bigger reality in politics than 'ideas'
"
Yeah... on the one hand, Glenn Youngkin (recently) CEO of Carlyle Group is probably friends with lots of NOVA voters... on the other hand, what exactly is the ex-CEO of the Carlyle Group going to do to connect with the rest of the voters?
Will he go the way of ex-Bain Capital CEO's Tribune to the people or forge a new ex-Carlyle Group CEO to the rabble? Either way, I don't think there's any Republican realignment in the offing that's led by Bain/Carlyle folks.
I mean, I know a lot of VA Republican operators and a couple of Pols... they are all pre-Trump figures... they have no idea what Trump is, was, or will be. They are the reason there's a Trump at all. So... hard for me to see these folks navigating their way out of this mess.
"
Personally I don't think the Republican apparatus knows what 'good candidates' or 'good policy objectives' would be to win a realignment... but I suppose we can see what Glenn Youngkin comes up with as a trial balloon.
At the moment his website doesn't have any info other than the obligatory picture of him and his family... and how to give them money. But eventually we'll see what VA Republican party thinks is a winning message from their curated pick.
On “Wuhan Lab-leak Theory Timeline”
Right, as the great Philosopher @Steak-umm points out, we have an epistemology problem.
"science itself isn't "true" it's a constantly refining process used to uncover truths based in material reality and that process is still full of misteaks. neil just posts ridiculous sound bites like this for clout and he has no respect for epistemology"
https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1381800742286209027
"
There are bi-lateral leverage points... Chinese research benefits from American Grant $$, scientists need and want access to Western networks of Scholarship, Education, IP, and funding. It isn't a matter of imposing US will upon China, but recognizing that the international standards and protocols that enable them to claim to have a BSL4 facility so that they can have access to all the support you need to run a BSL4 lab requires that you participate in the protocols.
Else, the funding, the IP, the exchanges, the networks, etc. etc. can be sanctioned.
That wouldn't necessarily stop China dead in their tracks if they wanted to go solo... but there's leverage... and reasonable leverage at that.
But that's also partly what Michael means, I think, by Biden blowing it... they aren't going to collaborate with Team Spy. So we've effectively closed the door on the Science Community sorting this out themselves.
"
Yeah, I think that's by design.
Intelligence reports will always include all the possible options with discussions about weighted probabilities that decision makers can use to make decisions. It will be vague by design and I'm willing to bet that the 'answer' will be, we can't say for sure what happened, but it is in everyone's interest to make sure that all BSL4 labs have more funding.
Alternately, using NIH, CDC, WHO and others would hopefully provide a collaborative analysis... and, if healthy, would point out failures (if any) for the good of the praxis.
However, there's strong temptation to NIH, CDC, WHO, and other players who are possibly complicit in 'unleashing the worst natural disaster in the modern era' (by accident, mind you) to make sure that the institutions are protected first. Not to mention institutional capture by not only the practitioners, but the government(s) themselves. I mean, it's hard to imagine WHO as having any credibility in any investigation ever again.
Journalists might be a counter-balance to this, but a big part of what's being discussed (or not discussed) above is that the journalists aren't providing a counter-balance to this. Some of what 'indie' reporters have pointed out is that the Lancet article supporting the WIV (and originally 'debunking' the Engineered Virus) was sponsored by Dr. Daszak, who is part of EcoHealth Alliance, which funds WIV with grants from NIH - possibly even GOF Engineering. Which is to say, it is possible that Lancet/EcoHealth/NIH may have banal corporate/funding interests in not acknowledging certain things (if they need acknowledging). Again, the paper-trails are there to keep these possible conflicts above the board... but only if our journalism isn't in the business of deciding who the "good guys" and "bad guys" and making sure the good guys win... no matter the science.
So Intelligence is the perfect way to de-fuse the situation by providing a report that comes from 'secret spy soruces' that provides a vague answer that ultimately results in more institutional funding.
"
Much of the initial science reporting *wasn't* conspiracy theories though... it required a sort of distortion to associate/obfuscate initial reporting with less credible conspiracies. But that's a different audit.
"
Wuhan Flu is the same distraction if it came from a wet-market vs. a lab leak in Wuhan/China.
I don't think that particular distraction is relevant to this matter...
I acknowledge that Trump's initial bungling of the matter (compared to his middle and late bungling) was hoping to deflect attention away from his bungling.
That isn't an excuse to ignore another institution's bungling, even if Trump's deflection was in bad faith.
"
Yeah... I suspect an Ox or two may be gored along the way... and I'm not really competent to say who's. BUT, the crew that jumped in to action to suppress any discussion/investigation seem to be the owners of many Oxen.
I still think that's a second order phenomenon as surely the scientific consensus once the fire is out is to have a full investigation, right?
I mean, why would you not?