Ukraine and the Axis of Evil

Photo by Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Over the past few months and years, an interesting dynamic has been emerging in the Russo-Ukraine war. Russia, which began the war on its own back in 2014 and was still on its own when it launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, has built its own coalition.

Unlike NATO, which began life as a Cold War alliance against the Soviet Union, the new Russian coalition is not a continuation of the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet bloc answer to NATO. Ironically, many former Warsaw Pact members and former Soviet republics are now members of NATO. Instead, the new Russian confederation bears a strong resemblance to the Axis of Evil.

For those of you who don’t remember, George W. Bush coined the term, “Axis of Evil,” in 2002. In a speech just a few months after September 11, Bush labeled three rogue terrorist states, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, saying, “States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world.”

We know what happened to then-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Within a few short years, a US-led coalition deposed Saddam and ultimately tried and executed him for a long list of crimes against the people of Iraq. Today, Iraq has its problems but it is no longer a terrorist state.

Iran and North Korea are still around, course, and its interesting to note that both are actively involved in the Russian effort in Ukraine.

Last spring, I did a feature on the drone war in Ukraine, and as it turns out, Iran is a major supplier of high tech dronesand ballistic missiles for the Russians. Often, these weapons are used in terror attacks against Ukrainian civilian targets, which is pretty much par for the course for both Iran and Russia.

In fact, Danny Citrinowicz of the Atlantic Council reports that Iran is usurping Russia’s longtime role as a major global arms supplier. A variety of factors that include both sanctions and the underwhelming performance of Russian soldiers and equipment in Ukraine have combined to diminish Russia’s role as a weapons exporter.

Likewise, North Korea has long been supplying Russia with military equipment and munitions such as artillery shells and missiles. In return, Russia provides North Korea with food, economic aid, and military assistance. The obvious question is how hard up does Vladimir Putin have to be to look to North Korea for help?

Pretty hard up for manpower as it turns out since Russia has suffered an estimated 600,000 casualties, including 115,000 dead, since 2022. Just this week, news broke that North Korea has assigned at least 3,000 soldiers to train in Russia and possibly take part in fighting. NBC News reports that 10-12,000 North Koreans are ultimately expected to possibly deploy to Ukraine.

But wait, there’s more!

China was not a member of Bush’s original Axis of Evil, but they are a mostly-silent partner in Putin’s anti-Ukraine coalition. China has flouted sanctions to become Russia’s largest trading partner, an action that has allowed Vladimir Putin to continue the war and engage in recent escalations. While China has not overtly provided weapons to Russia, it has supplied dual-use goods that aid the military effort.

China has a vested interest in helping Russia to avoid a defeat. Putin’s war has strained NATO and EU relations while also making the West focus on Europe. China also likely hopes that Western countries will be slow to adapt and replace weapons systems and munitions stocks transferred to Ukraine.

Make no mistake, China has its eye on Taiwan as is confirmed by recent war games simulating a blockade of the island nation. If Russia can break the West’s will in Ukraine, it will give China an advantage in their attempt to reclaim Taiwan. Even drawing out the Ukraine conflict and sapping the West’s strength would give China an advantage. If Ukraine is lost (or even saved) after a long an unpopular war, the West will be less likely to intervene when China makes its move on Taiwan.

And then there is Russia. Russia also was not part of the original Axis of Evil, but it is increasingly clear that Vladimir Putin is an aggressor with imperialist designs on the countries that used to be part of the various Russian empires and spheres of influence. That includes much of Europe.

This isn’t speculation. Putin has told us that he believes his historical destiny is to rebuild the Russian empire. As the saying goes, when authoritarians tell you what they want to do, believe them. That’s especially true when the authoritarian has already been acting on these goals for decades.

The problem for Putin is that, like the Ukrainians, other people for whom Russia domination is a recent and vivid memory are not anxious to go back under the thumb Mother Russia. Vladimir Putin is going to have a very bloody time trying to enslave them once again.

To make the situation even more strange, the American MAGA movement has emerged as a de facto ally of Putin’s Axis of Evil. Although some MAGA members align with Putin more or less openly, many others deny that their positions put them in Putin’s corner. Still, most of the MAGA world is virulently anti-Ukraine and anti-Zelensky. The Republican MAGA faction single-handedly blocked American aid to Ukraine for months last year despite a recent poll showing that37 percent of Republicans favor aid to Ukraine (we’ll call this the Nikki Haley faction). MAGA is obviously taking its marching orders from Donald Trump, whose plan to end the conflict essentially involves hanging Ukraine out to dry and giving Putin whatever he wants.

I think MAGA antipathy to Ukraine is based on several different factors. At a very basic level, Trump and MAGA blame Ukraine for Biden’s 2020 victory and Trump’s first impeachment. If Zelensky had played ball with Trump by announcing an investigation into the Bidens, there is little doubt that MAGA would view the country and conflict in a different light.

There is also a visceral desire to see anything associated with Joe Biden fail. When Russia launched its invasion in 2022, MAGA was quick to blame Biden for losing the country. Only Ukraine was not lost, thanks in large part to Biden and US aid. I am certain that at least part of anti-Ukraine sentiment is due to the country not conveniently dying in order to prove Trump right and make Biden look bad. Two years later, Trump’s prophecy of a Ukrainian defeat must be fulfilled because Trump is always right.

Take those ingredients, stir in Trump’s well documented affinity for dictators and MAGA’s isolationism and resistance to foreign aid to anyone (except maybe Israel), and I think we’ve got a pretty fair estimation of MAGA’s motives in Ukraine. The war and US aid converge at the same point where a lot of MAGA hot buttons intersect.

It may be off the mark to say that Ukraine’s fate depends on the outcome of the US presidential election. I think the war will continue as long as Putin thinks he can take the country. Even taking the entire country won’t end the fighting. A collapse of Free Ukraine would only transform the conflict into a guerrilla war. Nothing I’ve seen from the Ukrainians makes me think they’ll stop fighting for their freedom.

But aid to Ukraine does make the difference between having the weapons to defend themselves capably or dying noble-but-wasteful deaths. If Trump wins and Republicans control Congress, there is very little chance of meaningful US aid continuing.

And to bring it back full circle, that brings up a question MAGA should be asking itself: If you believe that Iran, North Korea, and China are hostile powers, why are you working to advance their goals when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine?

There are many things the MAGA right should think carefully about, but soul searching why their movement is aligned with Putin’s Axis of Evil should top the list.

Isolationism in the 1930s included some Americans who openly sympathized with Nazis. That isolationism gave way to the bloodiest conflict in human history in the 1940s. It isn’t so far fetched to think that modern isolationism might encourage the various members of the Axis of Evil to continue attacking their neighbors, eventually igniting another very bloody conflict that would almost certainly involve the US.

America has made mistakes as the leader of the free world, but one thing is certain: The world is a better place with us at the forefront of world affairs than it would be without us.