The Unavoidable Truth About Iran

The memorial service of Jihad Mughniyah held at the representative office of the Lebanese Hezbollah in Tehran, Iran, 21 January 2015. Photo by Fars Media Corporation, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Iran is on high alert in anticipation of the response from the Israeli government after Iran fired 180 short and longer-range missiles in multiple locations that hit inside Israel, some with payloads up to 1000 pounds. These aren’t firecrackers or DIY mortars slapped together by Hezbollah or some other proxy-wannabes. No, these are properly manufactured weapons designed and tested to do one thing: Inflict as much damage as possible on civilian and military targets alike.

These weapons were fired in retaliation for the strike that killed the senior Hezbollah command and their beloved charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah. His death was mourned by his fans, both in the region and globally, as one of the “good guys” in the conflict that ended his life, and he was laid to rest with full funeral regalia Friday. But at the same time, it seemed like just as many people began handing out treats in Syria and Lebanon in impromptu celebrations of his death. To say reactions were mixed would be an understatement.

Nasrallah, as charming as he may have been, was the man pulling the strings in Lebanon since well before 10/8. He chose to choke that beautiful country and turn it into a nightmare, as Americans paid billions in an effective bribe to the Lebanese military to not join Hezbollah, even as some military personnel doing the organization’s bidding have made the US State Department look foolish. That was unfortunately America’s choice, and a bad one.

He chose to ingratiate himself over decades with the inner circle of Iran’s notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, complete with family ties to IRGC leaders. He chose to launch the 1983 attack on the Beirut barracks that killed French nationals, locals and Americans. He chose to direct attacks on Israel over and over again. What Nasrallah did in Syria, where Hezbollah and affiliate Shia jihadis have been the tip of the spear in fighting to preserve the Assad regime, was stomach-turning: Atrocities like starvation and indiscriminate targeting of civilians with weapons like barrel bombs and worse are well documented.

Nasrallah intimidated the Lebanese, ran protection rackets, exploited patronage, sold aid on the black market at exuberant prices, and infiltrated the UN. He also trafficked in weapons, drugs and people. He might have been charismatic but he was an evil person and him not being on this planet is a net positive.

Much of Washington and Brussels somehow saw in Iran’s pyrotechnic attempt to regain control a sign of “restraint” in pursuit of leverage over the “rate of escalation” in the region, and hope it will bring about a ceasefire for 21 days — which will almost immediately be violated. This is a fool’s errand.

It’s a sophomoric and, if it weren’t so serious, laughable response to use such language to make war not sound like war when large swaths of the Anglophone media’s preferred side are the belligerents.

People who instinctively criticize Israel, America and The West almost always fall into 3 categories. First are Obama sycophants who know nothing about the region but think it’s great and the deal is great because it’s Obama’s deal and he’s great. The second category is Obama sycophants who know what the deal is and treat it like an historical geopolitical win for Obama because it makes them feel good. But the final, and most dangerous, category are the people cheered the deal on because they knew it would help Iran have more leverage in the region to attack its neighbors.

The first two groups can be forgiven for wanting a ceasefire (which would immediately be violated) and sending aid into Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen (that will end up on the black market at marked up rates only after it has smuggled weapons into impacted areas) or at the very least, and most commonly, they just ignore it all together. But the third group actively wants to, and still does, flood Iran with cash allowing them to repay debts to Russia and China who will seek to sell them even more advanced weapons once everyone gets paid.

Conventional wisdom says that this particular ship on an Iran Deal 2.0 has sailed and it will be hard to rebrand Iran as moderate negotiators in Vienna after all this maligned activity has come to light. I doubt that ship turns around but crazier things have happened and people really still believe in Obama’s legacy.

The truth about Iran’s “restraint” is they only exercise it when it is clear Israel is about to be far less restrained, as one would expect it to be in response to the horrific 10/7/23 attack by Hamas, 11 months of constant rockets from Hezbollah who violate 1701, recent Houthi long range explosive hunks of garbage from Yemen, and watching hostages in Gaza being executed. All of this, directed or funded by Iran.

Bluntly put, the ordeal will be a devastating expression of will on the part of the Israelis to not be targets in the region by anyone, let alone cowardice theocratic thugs who call time-out when it gets too real for their delusional reality that makes it clear their particular brand of exported security is weak and frankly not up to the task. Their brand isn’t so much a security option as better trained execution squads with cleaner uniforms.

Iran is clearly losing a war where it and its proxies are the belligerents. The sad, unavoidable truth is Israel’s retaliation will not be a theatrical protest meant to make a political point and drive headlines.

It will be a calculated and surgical application of terrifying kinetic force that is 100% likely to cause civilian casualties, and the number of those displaced will be staggering.

Fortunately, the immediate reality is that Israel has an opportunity to knee-cap Iran for a good while which means, as heavy as it weighs on the human heart, innocent people are going to be in the impact zone.

The IDF, despite their vilified reputation at the United Nations, have gone to great links to avoid civilian casualties. A cold-blooded military expert might say ‘the fuel in the planes could be used better for other missions, and alerting civilians helps the enemy,’ but any optics can have huge costs on the backend.

The IDF has all the momentum and is fighting down hill. Israel’s policy, should it be enacted, would decimate Iran’s day-to-day economy, its market investments and its infrastructure. It would limit internet and telecoms and would all but prevent their agency, communications and control of distant proxies, which could accidentally escalate with Israel because Iran has lost the ability to say “stop”. It doesn’t seem prospects for the proxies are looking up. That’s not to mention the threat to the regime from social unrest in Iran.

An immediate priority for Iran would be reinforcing Assad in Syria. Any kind of scenario where Iran can reestablish itself as a regional power that sells a brand of security that allegedly stabilizes the region, exacts revenge on apostates and traitors, and punishes the West is a good look. Israel is aware of this and Bashar al-Assad would most definitely be on their very extensive list of assets/targets that continue to cripple Iran.

Moscow would definitely want to see Assad, by way of the Iranians, truly securing Northeast Syria so they can vacation there when taking breaks from bombing Ukraine. Unfortunately, Israel and even reportedly Ukrainians have been hitting instillations connected to or occupied by Russians. China seems indifferent although it’s natural to imagine they’d also like a return on their investment in Iran.

Both countries on the security council are always the obstacle in the JCPOA negotiations. If it gets that far in 2025 it’s reasonable to expect they will maintain the same obstructionist posture.

In the meantime, it appears Israel isn’t asking for permission and is accumulating wins to operate from a much more secure position of strength, while Western politicians try one more time to bribe Iran to restrain itself.