97th Oscars Projections: Final Nomination Predictions
A year ago, the eve of the 96th annual Academy Awards’ nominations carried the excitement of a Hollywood comeback, fueled by the cultural phenomenon of “Barbenheimer.” Activist voting made its presence felt primarily through anti-war messaging, influenced by the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. The 10 Best Picture nominees were already well known ahead of time, reflecting one of the most static and predictable awards seasons I’ve ever watched unfold. Oppenheimer dominated regional critics’ awards, with its director Christopher Nolan emerging as the clear frontrunner for that prize. Meanwhile, Godzilla Minus One, a late-surging box office hit in the horror genre, garnered momentum for Oscar recognition. Barbie served as the year’s populist darling, ensuring broader audience interest in the upcoming ceremony. And Jimmy Kimmel was coming back to host the show for a fourth time.
A year later, the time has come for the nominations for the 97th annual Academy Awards to be announced. This time Conan O’Brien is hosting for the first time ever. Hollywood is grappling with a crisis as devastating fires ravage Los Angeles, the heart of the industry. Nomination and ceremony dates have been postponed, sparking a heated debate about whether the awards season should proceed amidst the turmoil. Activist voting is expected to focus on discontent with the possibility of a second Trump presidency or the need for escapism to counter the industry’s current struggles and the fires raging as voting took place.
The Best Picture lineup is shaping up to be incredibly unpredictable this year; eight films appear to be secure contenders (A Complete Unknown, Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, The Substance, and Wicked), but the remaining two slots are wide open – with more than a handful of films vying for those last spots. Anora has emerged as a favorite among most regional critics groups, though its lead isn’t as commanding as previous frontrunners from recent years. The Best Director race is equally competitive, with a weak frontrunner whose film (The Brutalist) has not been able to become the clear critics’ favorite. Nosferatu, this year’s late-surging box office hit in the horror genre, faces stiff competition to get Oscar love from another horror contender that happens to be locked in for nominations, The Substance. Meanwhile, Wicked stands as this year’s mass-appeal blockbuster, which ceremony producers hope will attract broader viewership – helping them will be the first ever streaming simulcast option in the ceremony’s history.
In my view, The Brutalist currently has the clearest path to a Best Picture win, as it is favored to secure two major above-the-line awards – Best Director and Best Actor. Three other films also have plausible paths to victory in Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Perez. Anora must overcome an incredibly tight Best Actress race, Conclave needs to secure a win beyond Best Adapted Screenplay, and Emilia Perez faces the significant challenge of overcoming some of the lowest audience scores I’ve ever seen for a Best Picture nominee in my years of following awards season.
Wicked made a remarkable impression on SAG nomination morning, tying the record for most nominations and positioning itself as the ensemble everyone wants to rally behind. However, with the film struggling to pick up wins outside of a few technical categories, it risks becoming a contender akin to Black Panther, which saw its cast win the SAG Ensemble award but failed to be competitive for Best Picture.
Meanwhile, A Complete Unknown and The Substance have gained late momentum, the former resonating strongly with the industry and the latter earning critical acclaim. Both are emerging as contenders with passionate followings. Finally, while Dune: Part Two is proving to be less dominant than its 2021 predecessor, it remains a strong player in the technical categories.
For the final two Best Picture slots, several films are in contention. A Real Pain and Sing Sing both have strong cases, as they seem likely to secure acting and screenplay nominations. Nosferatu also has a potential path, with the possibility of showing up in enough technical categories to claim the tenth and final spot. There’s also a case to be made for September 5, Nickel Boys, or Challengers, all of which could break into the lineup if they show up in the screenplay categories. Internationally beloved films like The Apprentice, Kneecap, and All We Imagine as Light could also sneak in, bolstered by strong support from the international voting bloc. The final lineup will remain a mystery until nominations morning, but my prediction leans toward A Real Pain and Sing Sing securing those last two coveted spots. I went 9/10 in 2021, 8/10 in 2022, and 10/10 last season, so I’m confident I’ll do no worse or better than recent years.
Below are my FINAL nomination predictions for ALL 23 categories, a total of 120 nominations in all. As always, I recommend not just focusing on the nominees I’m predicting but also keeping an eye on those I’ve marked as “Also Keep An Eye On…” These are contenders that could easily break into the lineup in several competitive categories. Historically, I tend to predict 74-76% of the nominations correctly, but this year feels especially competitive, and I wouldn’t be surprised if my accuracy falls closer to 70-72%. Inevitably, there will be some misses, and I suspect many of the surprises will come from those I’ve ranked in the #6-10 range for each category.
Please note, these are my objective assessments of where each race currently stands, not my personal picks for who or what should be nominated. For that, you can check out my personal “Best of 2024” piece. The nominations will finally be announced on Thursday morning, January 23rd. Until then, I hope this provides you with the most informed outlook on which films and individuals are likely to hear their names called:
Best Picture: Tilts The Brutalist
- The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Anora
03. Conclave
04. Emilia Perez
05. Wicked
06. A Complete Unknown
07. The Substance
08. Dune: Part Two
09. A Real Pain
10. Sing Sing
- Also Keep An Eye On…
11. Nosferatu
12. September 5
13. Nickel Boys
14. Challengers
15. The Apprentice
16. Kneecap
17. All We Imagine As Light
18. I’m Still Here
19. The Wild Robot
20. Flow
Best Director: Tilts Corbet
- The Predicted Field
01. Brady Corbet; The Brutalist
02. Sean Baker; Anora
03. Edward Berger; Conclave
04. Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
05. Coralie Fargeat; The Substance
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Denis Villeneuve; Dune: Part Two
07. Jon M. Chu; Wicked
08. James Mangold; A Complete Unknown
09. Remelle Ross; Nickel Boys
10. Payal Kapadia; All We Imagine As Light
Best Actor: Tilts Brody
- The Predicted Field
01. Adrien Brody; The Brutalist
02. Timothee Chalamet; A Complete Unknown
03. Ralph Fiennes; Conclave
04. Colman Domingo; Sing Sing
05. Sebastian Stan; The Apprentice
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Daniel Craig; Queer
07. Hugh Grant; Heretic
08. Jesse Eisenberg; A Real Pain
09. Glen Powell; Hit Man
10. Sebastian Stan; A Different Man
Best Actress: Tilts Madison
- The Predicted Field
01. Mikey Madison; Anora
02. Demi Moore; The Substance
03. Karla Sofia Gascon; Emilia Perez
04. Cynthia Erivo; Wicked
05. Fernanda Torres; I’m Still Here
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Marianne Jean-Baptiste; Hard Truths
07. Angelina Jolie; Maria
08. Nicole Kidman; Babygirl
09. Kate Winslet; Lee
10. Pamela Anderson; The Last Showgirl
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Culkin → Leans Culkin
- The Predicted Field
01. Kieran Culkin; A Real Pain
02. Edward Norton; A Complete Unknown
03. Yura Borisov; Anora
04. Guy Pearce; The Brutalist
05. Jeremy Strong; The Apprentice
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Clarence Maclin; Sing Sing
07. Jonathan Bailey; Wicked
08. Stanley Tucci; Conclave
09. Denzel Washington; Gladiator II
10. Mark Eydelshteyn; Anora
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Saldana
- The Predicted Field
01. Zoe Saldana; Emilia Perez
02. Ariana Grande; Wicked
03. Isabella Rossellini; Conclave
04. Margaret Qualley; The Substance
05. Jamie Lee Curtis; The Last Showgirl
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Selena Gomez; Emilia Perez
07. Felicity Jones; The Brutalist
08. Monica Barbaro; A Complete Unknown
09. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor; Nickel Boys
10. Danielle Deadwyler; The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts Anora
- The Predicted Field
01. Anora
02. The Brutalist
03. The Substance
04. A Real Pain
05. Challengers
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Hard Truths
07. September 5
08. Saturday Night
09. Kneecap
10. All We Imagine As Light
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Conclave → Leans Conclave
- The Predicted Field
01. Conclave
02. Emilia Perez
03. Sing Sing
04. Nickel Boys
05. A Complete Unknown
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Wicked
07. Dune: Part Two
08. Queer
09. The Piano Lesson
10. I’m Still Here
Best Animated Feature: Tilts The Wild Robot
- The Predicted Field
01. The Wild Robot
02. Flow
03. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
04. Inside Out 2
05. Memoir Of A Snail
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Moana 2
07. That Christmas
08. Ultraman: Rising
09. Transformers One
10. Chicken For Linda!
Best Animated Short: Tilts A Bear Named Wojtek
- The Predicted Field
01. A Bear Named Wojtek
02. ME
03. In The Shadow Of The Cypress
04. Yuck!
05. Maybe Elephants
- Also Keep An Eye On: A Crab In The Pool; Au Revoir Mon Monde; Beautiful Men; Bottle George; Magic Candies; Origami; Percebes; The 21; The Wild-Tempered Cavier; Wander To Wonder!
Best International Feature: Tilts Emilia Perez → Leans Emilia Perez
- The Predicted Field
01. Emilia Perez
02. Kneecap
03. I’m Still Here
04. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
05. Flow
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Dahomey
07. The Girl With The Needle
08. Vermiglio
09. How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
10. Armand
11. Santosh
12. Waves
13. From Ground Zero
14. Universal Language
15. Touch
Best Live Action Short: Tilts The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
- The Predicted Field
01. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
02. Dovecote
03. The Masterpiece
04. An Orange From Jaffa
05. Anuja
- Also Keep An Eye On: A Lien; Clodagh; Crust; Edge Of Space; I’m Not A Robot; Room Taken; Paris 70; The Compatriot; The Ice Cream Man; The Last Ranger
Best Documentary Feature: Tilts No Other Land
- The Predicted Field
01. No Other Land
02. Dahomey
03. Sugarcane
04. Daughters
05. The Remarkable Life Of Ibelin
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Will & Harper
07. Porcelain War
08. The Bibi Files
09. Black Box Diaries
10. Queendom
11. Soundtrack To A Coup d’Etat
12. Union
13. Hollywoodgate
14. Eno
15. Frida
Best Documentary Short: Tilts I Am Ready, Warren
- The Predicted Field
01. I Am Ready, Warren
02. Incident
03. The Only Girl In The Orchestra
04. Makayal’s Voice: A Letter To The World
05. Chasing Roo
- Also Keep An Eye On: A Swim Lesson; Death By Numbers; Eternal Father; Instruments Of A Beating Heart; Keeper; Once Upon A Time In Ukraine; Planetwalker; Until He’s Back; Seat 31: Zoey Zephyr; The Quilters
Best Original Song: Tilts “Kiss The Sky”; The Wild Robot → Tilts “El Mal”; Emilia Perez
- The Predicted Field
01. “El Mal”; Emilia Perez
02. “Mi Camino”; Emilia Perez
03. “Kiss The Sky”; The Wild Robot
04. “Harper And Will Go West”; Will And Harper
05. “The Journey”; The Six Triple Eight
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. “Like A Bird”; Sing Sing
07. “Compress Repress”; Challengers
08. “Sick In The Head”; Kneecap
09. “Never Too Late”; Elton John: Never Too Late
10. “Piece By Piece”; Piece By Piece
11. “Beyond”; Moana 2
12. “Tell Me It’s You”; Mufasa: The Lion King
13. “Winter Coat”; Blitz
14. “Out Of Oklahoma”; Twisters
Best Original Score: Tilts The Brutalist
- The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Conclave
03. Emilia Perez
04. Nosferatu
05. The Wild Robot
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Challengers
07. Wicked
08. Gladiator II
09. Blitz
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
11. Alien: Romulus
12. The Room Next Door
13. Babygirl
14. Sing Sing
15. Inside Out 2
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
17. The Six Triple Eight
18. Young Woman And The Sea
19. The Fire Inside
20. Blink Twice
Best Sound: Tilts Dune: Part Two → Leans Dune: Part Two
- The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. Emilia Perez
03. Wicked
04. A Complete Unknown
05. Gladiator II
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Blitz
07. Alien: Romulus
08. Deadpool & Wolverine
09. The Wild Robot
10. Joker: Folie a Deux
Best Editing: Tilts Dune: Part Two
- The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. Anora
03. Conclave
04. Emilia Perez
05. September 5
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Kneecap
07. Challengers
08. The Brutalist
09. A Complete Unknown
10. Wicked
Best Cinematography: Tilts The Brutalist
- The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Nosferatu
03. Dune: Part Two
04. Conclave
05. Emilia Perez
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Nickel Boys
07. Wicked
08. A Complete Unknown
09. Maria
10. The Girl With The Needle
Best Visual Effects: Tilts Dune: Part Two → Leans Dune: Part Two
- The Predicted Field
01. Dune: Part Two
02. Gladiator II
03. Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes
04. Alien: Romulus
05. Deadpool & Wolverine
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Wicked
07. Better Man
08. Mufasa: The Lion King
09. Twisters
10. Civil War
Best Production Design: Tilts Wicked → Leans Wicked
- The Predicted Field
01. Wicked
02. Nosferatu
03. Dune: Part Two
04. The Brutalist
05. Conclave
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Gladiator II
07. Blitz
08. Emilia Perez
09. A Complete Unknown
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Costume Design: Tilts Wicked → Leans Wicked
- The Predicted Field
01. Wicked
02. Nosferatu
03. Dune: Part Two
04. Conclave
05. Gladiator II
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. A Complete Unknown
07. Blitz
08. Emilia Perez
09. Maria
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Makeup & Hair: Tilts The Substance → Leans The Substance
- The Predicted Field
01. The Substance
02. Emilia Perez
03. Wicked
04. Dune: Part Two
05. Nosferatu
- Also Keep An Eye On…
06. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
07. The Apprentice
08. A Different Man
09. Maria
10. Waltzing With Brando
