97th Oscars Projections: Post HCA Awards & Critics Choice/Golden Globes Outlook
The fast-paced state of the awards race is evident, as I’ve had to quickly update my projections for the eight above-the-line categories for the upcoming 97th Academy Awards. This past week alone, we saw the Hollywood Creative Alliance (HCA) present their Astra Awards, while the Critics Choice Association (CCA) and the Golden Globes announced their nominees. Regional critics’ groups across the country have also started weighing in with their nominations and winners. On a personal note, I’ll soon be assembling my ballot for three critics’ groups I participate in – Central Florida, International Film Society, and Puerto Rico. The landscape is constantly shifting, and it’s hard to keep up. Next week, we’ll have even more regional awards and the release of the Oscars’ shortlists, which should provide clearer insight into Academy voters’ preferences.
The Astra Awards leaned heavily toward Wicked, awarding it Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and several craft categories. Timothée Chalamet and Kieran Culkin won Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, respectively. At Critics Choice, Wicked and Conclave led with the most nominations, followed closely by Dune: Part Two and Emilia Perez. The latter topped the Golden Globes nominations, though the Globes notably snubbed some perceived frontrunners, such as Sing Sing. So far, only Anora, Conclave, and Wicked have received Best Picture recognition from all major precursors, including AFI, NBR, HCA, CCA, and the Golden Globes.
Regional critics’ groups have spread their awards broadly, with the exception of Supporting Actor, where Culkin has nearly swept. As of this writing, Anora, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Brutalist, and Wicked have all won at least one Best Picture prize. In acting races, Brody and Domingo are vying for Best Actor dominance, while Madison and Jean-Baptiste are neck-and-neck for Best Actress. In Supporting Actress, Deadwyler, Grande, and Saldana are locked in a tight race. For Original Screenplay, Anora and A Real Pain are leading, while Adapted Screenplay has become a three-way contest between Conclave, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing. These results underscore just how open many categories remain with so many more groups both big and small yet to chime in.
Guilds, where some Academy members have a vote, have also begun weighing in. Unsurprisingly, many of the expected contenders are showing up. However, the most striking development is the momentum of The Substance. This audacious body-horror film is gaining traction as a potential Best Picture nominee, possibly joining the rarefied group of horror films like The Exorcist, Jaws, The Silence of the Lambs, and Get Out. Meanwhile, there are warning signs for Nickel Boys and Sing Sing, which, despite critical acclaim, may not be resonating as strongly with industry voters. The former’s experimental POV style of storytelling could be a hurdle for some voters, while the latter has been on a roller coaster in perceived strength week-to-week.
Below are my projections for the eight above-the-line categories, divided into their typical tiers. With the Oscars shortlists coming next week, I may do another quick update that includes the rest of the categories as well or wait until the start of next year. If neither, this could be my last update until my final nomination predictions. With five weeks until nominations morning, this year’s race feels entirely unpredictable compared to last. Many potential outcomes still lie ahead.
Best Picture: Tilts The Brutalist
– The Predicted Field
01. The Brutalist
02. Anora
03. Conclave
04. Emilia Perez
05. Wicked
06. Dune: Part Two
07. Sing Sing
08. A Real Pain
09. A Complete Unknown
10. The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
11. Nickel Boys
12. September 5
13. Challengers
14. The Wild Robot
15. Gladiator II
– Keep An Eye On
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
17. Juror #2
18. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
19. All We Imagine As Light (New To The Board)
20. Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: The Room Next Door
Best Director: Tilts Corbet
– The Predicted Field
01. Brady Corbet; The Brutalist
02. Sean Baker; Anora
03. Edward Berger; Conclave
04. Jacques Audiard; Emilia Perez
05. Coralie Fargeat; The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
06. Denis Villeneuve; Dune: Part Two
07. Remelle Ross; Nickel Boys
08. Jon M. Chu; Wicked
09. Mohammad Rasoulof; The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
10. Payal Kapadia; All We Imagine As Light
– Keep An Eye On
11. Walter Salles; I’m Still Here
12. Greg Kwedar; Sing Sing
13. James Mangold; A Complete Unknown (New To The Board)
14. Ridley Scott; Gladiator II
15. Robert Eggers; Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Pedro Almodovar; The Room Next Door
Best Actor: Tilts Brody
– The Predicted Field
01. Adrien Brody; The Brutalist
02. Ralph Fiennes; Conclave
03. Colman Domingo; Sing Sing
04. Timothee Chalamet; A Complete Unknown
05. Daniel Craig; Queer
– “On The Bubble”
06. Jesse Eisenberg; A Real Pain
07. Hugh Grant; Heretic (New To The Board)
08. Glen Powell; Hit Man
09. Sebastian Stan; The Apprentice
10. Sebastian Stan; A Different Man
– Keep An Eye On
11. Paul Mescal; Gladiator II
12. Nicholas Hoult; Juror #2
13. John David Washington; The Piano Lesson
14. Kingsley Ben-Adir; Bob Marley: One Love
15. Jesse Plemons; Kinds Of Kindness
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: Timothee Chalamet; Dune: Part Two
Best Actress: Tilts Madison
– The Predicted Field
01. Mikey Madison; Anora
02. Karla Sofia Gascon; Emilia Perez
03. Angelina Jolie; Maria
04. Cynthia Erivo; Wicked
05. Demi Moore; The Substance
– “On The Bubble”:
06. Marianne Jean-Baptiste; Hard Truths
07. Nicole Kidman; Babygirl
08. Kate Winslet; Lee
09. Amy Adams; Nightbitch
10. Fernanda Torres; I’m Still Here
– Keep An Eye On
11. Tilda Swinton; The Room Next Door
12. Julianne Moore; The Room Next Door
13. Zendaya; Challengers
14. Pamela Anderson; The Last Showgirl
15. Saoirse Ronan; The Outrun
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Culkin
– The Predicted Field
01. Kieran Culkin; A Real Pain
02. Guy Pearce; The Brutalist
03. Yura Borisov; Anora
04. Clarence Maclin; Sing Sing
05. Denzel Washington; Gladiator II
– “On The Bubble”
06. Edward Norton; A Complete Unknown
07. Stanley Tucci; Conclave
08. Jonathan Bailey; Wicked
09. Adam Pearson; A Different Man
10. Jeremy Strong; The Apprentice
– Keep An Eye On
11. Mark Eydelshteyn; Anora
12. John Lithgow; Conclave
13. Samuel L. Jackson; The Piano Lesson
14. Brian Tyree Henry; The Fire Inside
15. Austin Butler; Dune: Part Two
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Saldana
– The Predicted Field
01. Zoe Saldana; Emilia Perez
02. Ariana Grande; Wicked
03. Isabella Rossellini; Conclave
04. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor; Nickel Boys
05. Margaret Qualley; The Substance
– “On The Bubble”
06. Selena Gomez; Emilia Perez
07. Danielle Deadwyler; The Piano Lesson
08. Felicity Jones; The Brutalist
09. Natasha Lyonne; His Three Daughters
10. Elle Fanning; A Complete Unknown
– Keep An Eye On
11. Monica Barbaro; A Complete Unknown
12. Toni Collette; Juror #2
13. Zendaya; Dune: Part Two
14. Saoirse Ronan; Blitz
15. Joan Chen; Didi
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts Anora
– The Predicted Field
01. Anora
02. The Brutalist
03. A Real Pain
04. The Substance
05. His Three Daughters
– “On The Bubble”
06. Hard Truths
07. September 5
08. Challengers
09. Saturday Night
10. Juror #2
– Keep An Eye On
11. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
12. Babygirl
13. A Different Man
14. Didi
15. Blitz
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Sing Sing → Tilts Conclave
– The Predicted Field
01. Conclave
02. Sing Sing
03. Nickel Boys
04. Emilia Perez
05. Dune: Part Two
– “On The Bubble”
06. Wicked
07. A Complete Unknown
08. The Wild Robot
09. The Piano Lesson
10. The Room Next Door
– Keep An Eye On
11. Hit Man
12. Queer
13. I’m Still Here
14. Nightbitch
15. Nosferatu
– Off The Board Since The Last Update: N/A
