Live feed coverage from NBC News:
Some final ratings from our friends over at Elections Daily:
First off, we’re moving two Safe states onto the board. In an abundance of caution, we’re shifting Iowa and Ohio from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada.
In Georgia, we think Kamala Harris is also the favorite. While Donald Trump has led in most polls, we think the fundamentals in this race play against him. He has a lot of room to fall in the Atlanta suburbs, and there’s no evidence that these trends have changed or abated. And barring a revolt among black voters – something that seems increasingly unlikely – Republicans will have to rely on increasing their share of rural white voters. Notably, a recent NYT/Siena poll didn’t indicate a realignment with black voters, and showed Harris ahead. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic.
Finally, in the biggest shift of this update, we’re moving all three Rust Belt swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – to Leans Democratic. Even before Joe Biden dropped out, polling showed Democrats in a stronger position in the industrial midwest than the Sun Belt, and we think this is still the case now. Polling averages show a near dead-heat in all three states, but we think Harris has the advantage.
Final Ratings
With these three Rust Belt swing states in her camp, we think Kamala Harris has the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President. It’s worth noting that she could afford to lose one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, as Georgia and Nevada collectively provide a buffer that would keep her just barely above 270.
If Harris were to lose in Nevada, she could then only afford to lose Michigan or Wisconsin, while a loss in Pennsylvania would allow Trump to pass 270. We don’t think there is any reasonable scenario leading to a 269-269 tie.
Our final Senate update features only three ratings changes. The first, and biggest, change is in Ohio, where we now expect Democrat Sherrod Brown to hold on for a fourth term. While polling has been slightly more favorable for Republican Bernie Moreno as of late, most credible polls still show Brown ahead. Excluding ActiVote, Moreno has led only three polls since September. He’s been outraised, outspent, and frankly just has not run a good campaign. And with the recent Iowa poll from Selzer showing a shock lead for Kamala Harris, we can’t dismiss the possibility that Democrats are broadly outperforming in the Rust Belt. We’re moving this to Leans Democratic.
In Texas, we still think incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is favored. He’s led in all but four polls in the entire campaign – but polling has narrowed to the point we can’t consider this a Likely race anymore. In the latest DDHQ/The Hill polling average, Cruz holds a three-point lead over Democrat Collin Allred. This is less than half the lead Trump has over Harris in the state, and it warrants moving the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Finally, we’re reluctantly moving Nebraska’s regular Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican out of an abundance of caution. Since our last update, we’ve had two nonpartisan polls – one from New York Times/Siena showing a two-point lead for Deb Fischer, and one from The Economist/YouGov showing a seven-point lead for Fischer. We’re skeptical this race ends up being that competitive – it has all the signs of a mirage race – but the nonpartisan polling here backs up the picture broadly presented by internal polling. Democratic-aligned Independent Dan Osborn is likely to outrun pretty much any Nebraska Democrat in recent memory; the question is just by how much.
Final Ratings
As a result of our final updates, we project Republicans will control 51 seats, compared to 49 for Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents.
Republican gains
Now, onto the Tossups. First, let’s go over the seats we expect to flip from Democratic to Republican. In Alaska, incumbent Mary Peltola faces a first – a race with only a single Republican opponent, and a good one at that. Polling has been limited here, but internals from the Begich camp show him up four in the last round of ranked-choice voting. A Data for Progress poll earlier this year showed the race tied, even with Peltola having a ten-point edge in favorability; we have reason to believe her approval has fallen since. We expect Alaska to be carried by Donald Trump by a margin of eight to ten points, and we don’t think Peltola will overcome that. This is a close one, but we’re moving it to Leans Republican.In California’s 47th district, we expect Republican Scott Baugh to flip this open seat. This one comes down to candidate quality: this is a Biden+11 seat, but Baugh nearly flipped it last cycle. More importantly, Democratic nominee Dave Min has faced continual scrutiny for a 2023 DUI arrest as a state senator. We have this at Leans Republican. Finally, we’re moving Michigan’s 7th district, held by retiring Rep. Elissa Slotkin, to Leans Republican; all polls here have shown a lead for Republican Tom Barrett.
Democratic gains
On the Democratic side, we have six additional districts set to flip. The first is Arizona’s 1st district. Polling has been limited, but on a fundamental district level we think the trends will be too much for Schweikert to overcome. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic. In California’s 13th district’s rematch, we think Democrat Adam Gray is now the favorite to unseat first-term incumbent Republican John Duarte. We also expect Democrats to flip Iowa’s 3rd district, in large part due to a favorable broader climate in the Rust Belt. Both of them move to Leans Democratic.In two races in New York, we’re moving the 19th district to Leans Democratic. We think Democratic stretch in Ithaca is going to be too much for first-term incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro to overcome. We also expect Democrats to flip Oregon’s 5th district and Pennsylvania’s 10th district. The 10th district in particular would be a major coup; incumbent Scott Perry is one of the foremost members of the Freedom Caucus, and one of the few to represent a genuine swing seat. Multiple polls, including a Republican internal, have shown him trailing Democrat Janelle Stelson. Both of these move to Leans Democratic.
What it means
With these changes, we predict that Democrats will flip control of the House of Representatives, but only barely. We’re projecting that 219 Democrats and 216 Republicans will be elected – a three-seat majority for the Democrats, among the narrowest in American history.It’s worth noting, however, that the margin of error here is high. It would only take a handful of seats diverging for control to flip. In other words: this is as close to a 50/50 House of Representatives election as we’ve ever seen.
:keeps hitting F5 like a lab rat with the cocaine button:Report
Is this or is this not a Melania body double?
https://x.com/NYinLA2121/status/1853889956974063963Report
No.
If they couldn’t get Melania to show up nobody would care enough to make getting a body double seem like a remotely worthwhile thing to do.Report
“This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada.”
Unintentionally or not, this is a good example of herding in action. Selzer has been considered a gold standard pollster for a long time and she has been more right than wrong within the margin of error in elections since 2016. She can still be wrong now and was wrong in 2018 (she predicted Democrats would get the IA governorship). But stating they have doubts is still getting a read between the lines of “But abortion and sexism are girls’ cooties issues, not a serious issues.”Report
FWIW, whenever Trump writes something like this, I assume things are not looking good for him: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/465698848_10114653023320626_5916772039225456877_n.jpg
He telegraphs that way if you will.Report
Did he not write stuff like that in 2016?Report
To this extent? No. He was more restrained.Report
Ah, the sweet days of a restrained 2016 Trump who was only running against Hillary Clinton…Report
In 2016, Trump was one of the very many people who thought Trump didn’t have a chance.Report
Armand Domalewski points out that there are a number of voters out there who are just now finding out that Biden dropped out.Report
Every single OT commenter is in that bubble reserved for people who can name their Congresscritter, both Senators, and all nine Supreme Court justices.
And man is that easy to forget.Report
I am ashamed to admit that I only today found out that Doug Lamborn retired.Report
She’s not my congresscritter!Report
I think you pasted in the wrong link there.Report
DANG IT
Okay, I fixed it.Report
Well, you know the old saying… ‘As Guam goes, so goes Guam’
https://www.guampdn.com/news/moylan-wins-reelection-republicans-retake-legislature-in-unofficial-tally/article_5bcb7876-9b7b-11ef-aec7-83497e6acae4.htmlReport
This is poorly written:
“Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz took the lead in Guam’s presidential straw poll.
The Democrat team won 13,510 votes, 49.46% of those cast as of 1:30 a.m.
Former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance took 12,624 votes, 46.22%.
While Guam residents can’t vote for president, Guam votes cast in the presidential straw poll are among the first cast and counted on American Election Day.
Island voters have predicted the winner of the popular vote for president in every race since 1980.
Guam’s straw poll only got the 2016 race wrong, when former Sen. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump won the Electoral College vote.”
So did Guam predict the winner of the popular vote or the EC vote? In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but not the EC vote and Bush II won the straw poll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_straw_poll_in_Guam“Report
Charlie Kirk is a bit panicked: https://www.rawstory.com/charlie-kirk-ground-game/Report
My prior distribution:
1% — Kirk has access to internal Trump camp info that’s making him flip his sh!t
4% — Kirk is shrewdly trying to get people who take him seriously to goose turnout
95% — Kirk has absolutely no idea WTF is happening but decided to freak out anywayReport
You are potentially right but I want him to have some info and be freaking out.Report
I feel you bro but it’s Charlie KirkReport
In addition to Charlie Kirk, my obsessive Election Day blog refreshing has reminded me of the existence of Ian Miles Chong and Catturd2
So that’s niceReport
There were reports of Democrats switching back to more in person voting and there is some evidence it is happening. From Ralston:
“On Election Day 2020, 109,000 Clark County voters went to the polls. Repubs won by 2,000 ballots.
Today: 84,000 have already voted with 5 and a half hours left and Dems have a 2,000-ballot lead.”
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853911156026753313?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Clark County is 75 percent of Nevada. Nevada also automatically registers new voters as independents so the lead maybe biggerReport
This is the first presidential election since I had to put my wife in memory care. I’m going to miss cuddling up under a blanket with her and making fun of the talking heads on television.Report
Awwwww.Report
now I am tearing up on a cruise ship. I am sorry Michael.Report
I’m sorry that you’re stuck with us.Report
Trump is having a normal about Philadelphia
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/503ba08866d41eaf60a3db5b6ae245b397f330223e861ba89edaf7f5b028ba6a.jpgReport
Unlike Charlie Kirk, I think there’s a meaningful chance Trump is responding to something he’s hearing from his campaign here.Report
Stephen Miller on Musk’s thing: If you know any men who haven’t voted, get them to the polls.Report
Steve M over at No More Mister Nice Blog sums up my feelings nicely:
My head tells me that Harris isn’t Hillary Clinton and there’s no James Comey or email pseudo-scandal. It tells me that Trump’s ground game has been outsourced to grifters. It tells me that women are furious. It tells me that young boy-men won’t leave the house and go vote.
But I’m bracing for impact in spite of all that, just in case.
I’m also bracing for the fact that we won’t be rid of Trump tomorrow even if he loses a blowout. He’ll declare victory in about fourteen hours no matter what the voters did — Harris could be on course to trounce Trump with Obama-in-’08-level numbers, she could be winning all the swing states plus Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, and he’ll still say he won. If he doesn’t win, he’ll fight to get the results overturned right up to Inauguration Day. So if you’re sick of him, sick of his voice and his bronzer and his bigotry and the disgusting way he pronounces his L’s when he’s trying to be contemptuous and sarcastic, calm yourself, because he might be more of a presence in the next two and a half months than he is even now.
https://nomoremister.blogspot.com/Report
Suck it libs, the fat lady is warming up.Report
Class always shows.Report
Trump won Hamilton County, Indiana by 7 points in 2020. According to a poster on the other blog, 2/3rds of the vote are in and Harris has a 1 point lead. That is epic.Report
It is encouraging but let’s wait for more data.Report
Weren’t you the guy complaining about Clark Country’s clerk being slow?Report
Republicans are lighting their Emergency Signal in Clark County.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93ca5c9843688488fdd0d794852cf79994d029871e274a135cbaca7c806e48df.jpgReport
7.03… who’s president?Report
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.Report
Are you sure?Report
100%Report
The girl reading this.Report
Stephen Miller is freaking out:
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1853942454753378511?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853942454753378511%7Ctwgr%5E2afeb00443c54a3b55dbebeca38c3fc331bfb2ba%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dlawyersgunsmoneyblog-comt_i%3D14595820https3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F3Fp3D145958t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com2F20242F112Fan-inclusive-message-from-herr-millert_e%3DAn20Inclusive20Message20from20Herr20Millert_d%3DAn20Inclusive20Message20from20Herr20Millert_t%3DAn20Inclusive20Message20from20Herr20Millers_o%3Ddescversion%3Dd9bf63667ed03c99c8fc502b196e66efReport
Hi all from the Pacific. internet is unreliable, intermittent and only available near shore so I’ll be mostly absent but my thoughts and worthless agnostic (this useless) prayers are focused northward. Best of luck to the Dems, confusion to the GOP.Report
NBC is saying that Georgia is too close to call.
As is North Carolina.
Fox is saying Pennsylvania is too close to call.
Polymarket is selling dollars for 32 cents.Report
The crazy thing is that *BOTH* Trump and Harris are overperforming in Georgia.
Which means that the 3rd Parties are dead and gone.Report
The Needle Is Back!!!
The NYT is currently projecting the Don to win with 274. But it’s only 6:25PM Mountain Standard Time.Report
Guys, go to the needle and go to the left side and click on “shift from 2020”.Report
I’m not looking at the NYT needle but my own personal needle says it’s gotta be Trump 85-90% now.
Not only is Kamala getting nothing in the Sun Belt but the fact that Trump’s toughest state was N Carolina which fell really easily for him and the fact that Georgia is likely to come in 5+% leads me to believe that we’re seeing a parallel shift (Trump gains everywhere) as opposed to a tilt (Trump gains in the Sun Belt Kamala gains in the Rust Belt).
And, even if Kamala wins WI, MI, and PA, given what we’ve seen so far you have to think Trump is competitive in New Mexico and he still has chances even without any part of the blue wall.Report
Wow, the needle has been going steadily redder since you posted this. I was too chicken to make a prediction but I was mostly buying the last-minute Harris vibes — not looking that way at the moment.Report
Up to 296 now.
I think that the main thing that we keep forgetting is that the vibes are connected. There’s really no better way for me to show this than to look at the “shift from 2020” map so I’d say look at that.
You have tiny pockets of arrows going one way but, for the most part, you have entire fields of arrows all pointing together. They cover the area like clouds.Report
Oh yeah – wow, that’s pretty dramatic.Report
Needle now “Likely Trump”, not just ‘Lean” — but other sites I’ve checked aren’t hinting one way or the other yet.Report
Iowa just called for Trump. Guess Selzer was a bold outlier.Report
I don’t mind outliers! I mind them all going the same way!Report
Despite the fact that it is a school night, I am now drinking some wine.
I am doing that so that I do not write an essay.Report
made a little cocktail of a couple ounces bourbon with some Aperol and triplesec, and it’s having a noticeable effect.Report
Okay, Virginia has flipped from Trumpy, probably to Harrisy, probably.
NC and GA are Trump’s (probably).Report
Turning in… 216/193 Trump ahead… Blue wall undecided. Rs have 50 senate. House still jump ball.Report
There are upsides to living in flyover.
It won’t be bedtime for another half hour and I won’t be up late for 90 minutes and I won’t be up waaaaay too late for 150.
I’m mostly wondering if we’ll get a concession before I’m up waaaaaaaay too late.Report
Where’d everybody go? Had to wash their hair tonite probably.Report
I suppose that that explains why I’m still here. I just need a chamois and some carnauba wax.Report
I wanted to see how some of the other swing states turned out and it’s a little weird to me that NYT (at least) just said F*** it … Trump has 276… go find your election data somewhere else.Report
Inconceivable.Report
Report
We probably need to have a talk about the Ann Selzer thing.Report
Turns out a survey of 808 people isn’t the “gold standard” poll people wished it to be.
Shocking.Report
Who wants a Bible verse? Here’s Revelation 3:16.
“So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.”Report
Real quiet in here.
Anyone going to do a welfare check on some of our OT superstars?Report
Okay. Where we are now.
It is theoretically possible for Harris to still win. She could, theoretically, get 277 EVs if she wins all of the battlegrounds left.
The NYT, however, says that it’s most likely for Trump to win ~306 EVs. Which is well above the 270 to win.
Not only that, he has a likely (but not *VERY* likely) chance to win the popular vote too.
The bottle is empty and I am close to going to bed and the possibility exists that Harris will still win all of the remaining battleground states and the election officials will find a bunch of votes from overseas and election boxes downtown and whatnot…
But I will soon be going to bed thinking “Yeah. Trump not only won but Harris definitely lost and now I have to come up with an essay title for an essay that talks about The Boy Who Cried Wolf, The Little Dutch Boy, The Trumpeter Taken Captive, and a story from my mama where she told me that I had infinite rabbit bullets, a handful of wolf bullets, and only 1-2 elephant bullets, and, as such, I needed to make sure of what I was shooting at if I wasn’t using a rabbit bullet.
But this wine is also very, very good.Report
So, I guess the question we all have now is who will control the House, and how many times will Trump be impeached if it’s Democrats.
Actually, first I guess we have the question ‘What happens if the president elect is serving a felony sentence?’ Because the apparent President-elect is going to be sentenced on November 26th on 34 felony counts in New York.
I wonder exactly how many Trump voters know that, and understand that. I wonder how many Trump voters are motivated by blinding hatred and bigotry, vs. just being completely clueless and negative information voters.
And the entire news media that has spent years normalizing Trump and pretending things were normal during this slow slide into fascism can burn in hell. Which Trump has promised to put them through.
I guess we had a republic, for as long as we chose to keep it.
I don’t know, I’m a little numb right now…I actually had already internalized that the world was doomed thanks to our complete inability to do anything about climate chance, but I assumed we had decades there and I would probably be dead. But now we’re getting unrestrained Trump, and I have to start planning for the personal safety of me and a lot of my friends.Report
If I wanted Trump to experience consequences, I sure as hell would have had them kick in prior to the election.
Because the last thing I’d want is to have the whole feeling of “maybe he won the 2020 election too!” floating around out there following some silly consequences following his big electoral win.Report
The Judge delayed the sentences to ‘avoid any appearance of affecting the outcome of the presidential race’.
Call me crazy, but I think a candidate being convicted of felonies should, in fact, affect the outcome of a presidential race. I feel while a felony conviction may sway voters, it is indeed entirely proper for that to sway voters!
I like how we have all these guardrails to make sure the legal system can’t invent bogus charges to sway elections, and very much forgot that sometimes, apparently, candidates can actually be committing a sh*tton of crimes all over the place, and it would really be nice to actually wrap that up conclusively before elections so it _can_ sway them.
And now we’ve got the opposite problem, the judge is going to know that the person he is sentencing is supposed to be the next president, which a) means he’s going to have to fit that sentence to the circumstances instead of the same sentence everyone would get (And Trump either having to work within it or getting it modified), and b) knows that the convicted will be in a place of power, able to harm him. (And has a history of doing that, and has at this point threatened to do it.)
I’d call that a conflict of interest except the premise of a conflict of interest is that it’s specific to the person, whereas ‘Trump will be the next president and have the power to harm them if they piss him off by trying to enforce the law against them’ is true for literally everyone.Report
I wonder how many Trump voters are motivated by blinding hatred and bigotry…
That’s a “you” thing, i.e. “what you want to think”, rather than a “them” thing.
For years, there hasn’t been enough bigotry to meet demand. Team Blue has tens of thousands of social justice warriors who want to oppose bigotry and racism. Ergo they’ve needed to invent new forms of bigotry and racism.
That Blue wants villains to oppose doesn’t mean other people are obligated to think of themselves as that.
If we need to use “racism” to explain why black men who voted for Obama voted for Trump, then we’re doing wishful thinking and we should find a different explanation.Report
I didn’t say racism, I said bigotry, and if you think Black men can’t be bigots, you…well, you’ve apparently never spoken to Black women, for the most obvious example of misogyny.
Anyway, you chopped off the second half of what I said, ‘or completely clueless and negative information voters’.Report
Ugh. Not only is Trump going to be the President again, but partisan Democrats are going to spend the next five years being utterly insufferable.
More than usual, I mean.Report
Yeah, we’ll be bringing frivolous lawsuits and storming the Capitol any day now.Report
Fani Willis won reelection!Report
Oh my, someone won an election. How insufferable!Report
I hope she keeps going after him. The federalist purists need to be thusly tortured.Report
She’s going to need at least one really good Special Prosecutor on her team…Report
Oof. Well this should be stupid. I guess we’ll be pressure testing the whole system again.
Fingers crossed for a D house to at least create some speed bumps.Report
Yeah all hope lies with the house now. Congrats to the right wingers, they got their dude in. We all get Trump and Trump gets the right whole hog now. I hope, and expect, that our side will take the L like liberals and not like the right, set the contrast stark from the get go.Report
Of course we will. And if Trump drops massive inflationary tarrifs or blows up the deficit with unfunded tax cuts they’ll only have themselves to blame, yet will likely remain constitutionally incapable of seeing it.
My long term hope is that the party re-tools itself. Some of this is bad luck with inflation, but we can’t lose to this guy twice in 10 years and not be prepared to do some serious recalibration. The good news is that trends have a way of turning against incumbents, whoever they are.Report
I think Dems are going to fall in love with the filibuster again.Report
Now that the lefties have chewed the other guys finger off to get THE PRECIOUS…..it’s time for a lava bath.
I hear Canada and Mexico are fine places to move to.
Also remember that unarmed J6 rioters will have jail cells without beds, without clothes, will be beaten and pass food to each other through a toilet to keep from starving.
Fun times aheadReport
Yeah, blame the lefties, not the candidate who promised to put Republicans in the cabinet.
It turns out that the voters who wanted Republicans in the cabinet already were voting for someone who promised to put even more in there.
Harris promised absolutely nothing, and the American people very much want. The Democrats are too beholden to corporate interest to actually do change, so the American people voted for the liars and lunatics instead.Report
I was wrong. So SO very wrong.
Americans want a recession back.
Americans want concentration camps.
Americans want me to loose my job and pay for their weather forecasts.
Americans want a hierarchy based on misogyny, class and race.
May the odds be ever in your favor.Report
You can’t beat something with nothing. Having selected a candidate who is terrible at running for office, you have someone who is terrible at running for office. All of the happy talk about how super qualified she was to be President was somewhat jarring.
Pick a governor next time.Report
Look at the upside, Cuba is only 90 miles away from America and reflects all your political values.Report
Well that sucked
Gonna step away for a while until the urge to pick fights with people whose fault this isn’t passesReport