Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool”
— Richard Feynman
It’s fundamentally about the polling. It’s about the stuff we were talking about every day. Over and over again, the polling told us what was going to happen.
The polls showed Biden losing (and even the hints that came out from Biden’s internal polling seemed to show that).
Then we had the debate and Biden looked *AWFUL*. There were a number of post-mortems after the debate and they ranged from “Biden lost badly” to “How dare you imply that Trump would make a better president?” to (my favorite) “It was a tie.”
Biden is too old. We don’t know that Biden can handle it. Biden seemed lost. Biden seemed confused.
If you could replace Biden before the convention, we knew that things could turn around. Biden went from being the one freakin’ guy who could be relied upon to win against Trump in 2020 to being the one freakin’ guy who was going to lose to him in 2024.
Thankfully, Biden decided to drop out.
The debate over whether it’d be Harris or whether there’d be an open convention was quickly squashed by Biden’s full-throated endorsement of Harris.
And Harris did her best to demonstrate that she was *NOT* too old to campaign against Trump, she was *NOT* going to be confused, and she was *NOT* going to look lost out there. All of the attacks that were scoring hits against Biden suddenly became liabilities! Trump is too old! Trump looks confused! Trump looks lost!
And it was the debate where Harris pretty much eviscerated Trump in front of the country.
Did you see what happened to the polling after the debate? Over and over, Harris inched up. She looked good. She gave a couple of softball funsies interviews when she needed to and demonstrated not that she was this or that other trait, but that, compared to Trump, she was preferable. She was more charismatic, more pleasant, and had more big profile names endorsing her. Everybody from Michael Moore to Dick Cheney were in agreement: I’m With Harris.
This was the tip of an iceberg. If Cheney was okay with Harris, how many people who were okay with Cheney suddenly relaxed and thought “well, I can just say that I agree with the Republican party” (and meant the one they voted for in the oughts)? You can claim to be “Undecided” to your friends but, when you’re alone in the booth, you can vote your conscience.
The polling kept telling us that this was going to happen but the newspapers, to make money, had to run with it being a close horserace and running stories about this or that awful thing happening to sell papers. “If it bleeds, it leads” and the one thing that was never bleeding was support for Harris in the polls.
Sure, there were awful things happening far away: conflict in the Middle East (a perpetual headline), conflict in Russia (a perpetual headline), and hurricane season all over again. But the aid was given to the states, the various conflicts going on far away didn’t embroil us beyond sending old equipment that we didn’t use anymore and new equipment that we really wanted to field test to our *ALLIES* who were fighting against powers that were our regional opponents.
And anybody looking dispassionately knew that this was a stable equilibrium that we could keep going indefinitely when Trump would get in there and shake everything up and who knows how bad things could get?
Maybe a competent Republican could have put up a meaningful fight against Harris… but not Trump. He’s just offputting.
Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” point to a Harris victory, according to Lichtman and he’s used them to correctly predict the outcomes of each presidential election from 1984 to 2012. (2016, man. The keys didn’t work on 2016.) In 2020 they started working again and Lichtman says that they’re unlocking the White House for Harris currently.
The polling of the Decideds are pointing to Harris and while there are still Undecideds, and while there is still a margin of error, the polls are, probably and in aggregate, correct. The keys point to a Harris victory. The main problem is that there are too many people psyching themselves up and psyching themselves out because it’s fun or because of high neuroticism or something. The debate was fine. The vice-presidential debate was fine. (If anything, the vice-presidential debate demonstrated how refreshing it was to see a normal Republican arguing with a normal Democrat again. No Trump weirdness.)
Everything is fine.
Calm down. Take a deep breath.
Seriously. You’ll be able to say that you saw this coming if you weren’t currently so busy fooling yourself.
What is often overlooked is that 2016 and 2020 were almost identical outcomes.
One was a razor thin victory in one direction, the other a razor thin victory in the other, but both were razor thin, turning on a few tens of thousands of votes in a few counties in a few states.
And all polling to date suggests that 2024 will be the same. Whether Harris or Trump, the winner will be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania.
A 1984 landslide just isn’t going to happen. A 2008 solid and convincing victory isn’t going to happen.
I would love to be proven wrong, but again, right now the polls just aren’t pointing to such an event.
And further, the polls have remained virtually unchanged for almost a decade.
Since 2015 Trump’s base of support has fluctuated only slightly, ranging from a high of maybe 47% of the electorate to a low of maybe 45% depending on how the mix is tabulated.
And probably more importantly, even if Harris wins a solid win of lets say 55%, Trumpism will still be in firm control of about half of the country.
For at least another decade, America will be one recession, one spike in gas prices, one gaffe or scandal away from Trumpism and the end of democracy.Report
I still have a feeling that Harris could get a 2012 style victory but you could be correct. That being said 2016 and 2020 were only “close” because of the horrible and counter-majoritarian electoral colleges. 2016 and 2020 with popular vote counts would be considered horrible defeats for TrumpReport
Right, but my main point is that Trumpism (roughly defined as White Christian Nationalism) isn’t a fluke or one-off, but something that is widely and deeply popular all across America.
And this is something a lot of pundits refuse to accept.Report
Trumpism is Obama-ism. There is one guy and his followers buy into him emotionally to the point where they ignore they don’t have a good reason.
Difference is Obama was far more ethical, saner, stayed inside the guard rails, and didn’t want to be a cult leader past the election.Report
No – Trumpism is a symptom of 50 plus years to laser focused action and decision making by the GOP. Take Trump out and all the democracy destroying impulses of Trumpism will remain – albeit in a saner and probably better looking.Report
In his 1953 novel “Revolt in 2100” Robert Heinlein predicted the rise of Christian Nationalism and the 2012 Electoral College win/popular vote loss of The First Prophet. There were no further elections, at least for a long time. The US became a theocratic state under a series of dictators/Prophets.
In 2017 fellow sci-fi author David Brin connected Heinlein’s work to the events of current times: https://david-brin.medium.com/heinleins-future-history-coming-true-before-our-eyes-10356a95556aReport
What the heck? Did this publish a month early? I need to go knock on wood and collect some rabbits feet or something!Report
You’re only making the jinx worse by commenting on it. And now I’ve done it too!Report
I think JB is doing a thing. He has another one with the identical title but replaces Trump with Harris.Report
Yes, I managed to get in before the second one so, in hindsight, my comment looks silly.Report
Like Jaybird, I live along the Colorado Front Range urban corridor (opposite end, though). With the West Coast ports open, I suspect neither of us will notice the longshoremen’s strike. Nor will anyone living farther west than us. Just for what it’s worth.
Clinton won the national popular vote by almost 3M votes. Biden by 7M. I’m putting a marker down for Harris to win by 10M. The abortion vote is being underweighted. Much of my adult life I’ve regularly had lunch in Great Plains rural towns of a certain size. Every one of them has an unofficial “old widows club” — women whose husbands have died, who don’t want to leave the area where they’ve lived their lives, who’ve moved to town and look out for each other. My HOA has a happy hour in the common area on Wednesdays if the weather is nice enough. That group has become similar to those old widows clubs. I go now and then because it’s entertaining to see them decide whether to continue their usual displeasure with old men, or try to accommodate me. I went yesterday. With the election coming up, every single one of them is incensed about the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. They are going to take it out on every Republican on the ballot from Trump down.Report
I so hope you’re right.Report
That last link, to the Lichtman post on Twitter/X. Man, the replies. Oh man. So glad I’m not on there anymore.Report
Heh, I wonder what October 4th’s post will be…Report
Optimistic hot takes: The Polls are overcorrecting for Trump and are much better for Harris than assumed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
The five most recent polls which have results favorable for Trump are from right-wing outfits even if not marked. Patriot Polling’s name is its tell. And if you google its two employees (both college students), you find they are young Republicans.
“At the same time, it has never been easier or cheaper to conduct lesser-quality polls using internet questionnaires or automated phone services.
One newcomer to the industry that illustrated the low barrier to entry was Patriot Polling, incorporated in September in suburban Philadelphia by two high school juniors.
The pair — Lucca Ruggieri, 17, who identifies as a Republican, and Arhan Kaul, 16, who is more interested in data science than politics — met at a program for future leaders, joked about how terrible polling had been in recent elections and decided to take a stab at it themselves. At worst, they figured, they would bolster their college applications.”
This is from a 2022 NY Times article on the red wave that wasn’t.
AtlasIntel is connected to a right-libertatian think tank called The Atlas NetworkReport