The Race to Control the Senate

I’ve talked a bit about the presidential polling in this year’s election, but that is far from the only election going on. (To be correct, I should say “those races” because the presidential election is actually a series of presidential races in the states that culminate in an Electoral College vote rather than a single election.) The race to control Congress is almost as important as the presidency, possibly more so.

If Republicans regain control of one or both houses of Congress, they will be able to block the agenda of a Harris Administration, but perhaps more importantly, in a Trump Administration, a Republican Congress would block attempts to rein in the excesses of a second Trump Administration or hold Trump accountable. Similarly, a Democrat majority in one or both houses could stymie Trump’s legislative agenda while helping Harris to pass some of her priorities.

When considering this, we should keep in mind that the filibuster will greatly limit the ability of either party to pass legislation in the closely divided Congress, so control of the House and Senate will not represent a carte blanche. Having said that Donald Trump has advocated nuking the filibuster while Harris has backed ending the filibuster for abortion legislation. In practice, a partial nuking of the filibuster would probably end up killing the whole thing in short order. In Trump’s case, the former president has shown a willingness to bypass Congress with emergency declarations that also limit the ability of congressional Democrats to block his agenda.

In the Senate, Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority (counting three independents who caucus with the Democrats). There are a total of 34 Senate races and Republicans have a structural advantage because Democrats are defending 23 seats as opposed to 11 for Republicans.

The majority of seats on both sides are safe, but no Republican seats are in serious danger. The same cannot be said of Democratic seats. The nature of Democratic waves in recent years and the continuing political realignment is that Democrats ended up with quite a few seats in red or purple states. Those seats are becoming increasingly untenable.

The Cook Political Report gives Republicans the edge in two races for Democratic seats. In West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, the race is rated as “solid Republican.” Democrats who complained about Joe Manchin are about to find out that it could always get worse.

The second most likely Republican pickup is Montana, where many folks might be surprised to learn that one of the senators is Democrat Jon Tester. Tester has been a consistent underdog in polling for the past few months by about five points. In a state-level poll, five points is not an insurmountable obstacle, but Republican Tim Sheehy is the definite favorite in a race that Cook rates as “lean Republican.”

Those two races would be enough to flip the Senate, but the news gets worse for Democrats. There are two toss-up races for Democratic seats in Ohio and Michigan. Sherrod Brown is defending his seat in Ohio where he holds a small lead in polling. In Michigan, incumbent Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and Democrat Elissa Slotkin holds a small lead over Republican Mike Rogers.

Four more races are in the “lean Democrat” column. These are elections in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These seats will probably stay blue unless Election Day goes really badly for Democrats.

When it comes to Republicans, there are no seats likely to flip and no toss-ups. Cook doesn’t even rate any Republican seats as leaners. To pick off a Republican seat, Democrats have to move all the way up to the “likely” column, the second safest category. There are three states in that category: Florida, Nebraska, and Texas.

In Florida, Rick Scott has seen his polling lead decline to the point where he only held a one-point lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in a recent poll, the only poll in September. If further polling shows the race to be as close, Cook may downgrade its rating.

There are two Senate races in Nebraska. One is a special election to fill the seat of Ben Sasse, who retired in 2023. That seat is rated as a “solid Republican” for Pete Ricketts.

In the other race, Republican incumbent Deb Fischer is defending against independent Dan Osborn. Democrats are backing Osborn and not fielding a candidate. Polling has been sparse in the race, but a poll released last week, the only poll in September, showed Osborn with a one-point lead.

Finally, we come to Texas. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke to hang on to his seat in 2018 and he is once again having problems in deep-red Texas. This year, Cruz has a five-point polling average lead over Collin Allred. Cruz looks likely to eke out another victory but Democrats would love to pick him off and are starting to put more money into the race.

A point to consider is that the outcome of the presidential election also affects the outcome of the battle for control of the Senate. The new vice president will also serve as president of the Senate and can cast the deciding vote if necessary. In practical terms, this means that a Trump-Vance victory would mean that Republicans only need to pick up one seat to win a majority while a Harris-Walz victory would raise the bar.

At this point, at least two Republican pickups seem likely with only longshots available to Democrats to offset their likely losses in West Virginia and Montana. It seems likely that Republicans will gain outright control of the Senate regardless of who becomes president.

Democrats have to pin their hopes on a very good night in which Trump’s reverse coattails will bail out their candidates in tossup and trailing races. It has happened before when bad MAGA candidates lost winnable races, and it’s happening this year in Arizona where perennial loser Kari Lake is once again trailing her Democratic opponent, Ruben Gallego. It would have to be an extremely bad night for Republicans to lose one or more of their “likely” holds in Florida, Nebraska, or Texas. It’s probably too much to hope that Republican weaknesses will overcome what should be a strong red year, but the self-destructive tendencies of MAGA may be enough to reduce the damage.

As a closing thought, a Harris presidential win with a Republican Senate majority would help to preserve the filibuster a bit longer. There would be no incentive for either side to nuke the filibuster if it wouldn’t help get their legislative priorities through Congress and past the Resolute desk. That’s a decent reason to hope for a mixed outcome on November 5.