97th Oscars Projections: The Mid Fall Festivals Outlook For The Best Picture Race

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals have come and gone. In a couple weeks we’ll have New York’s turn. Historically, at this stage of the race, we have a clear frontrunner for what will win the next Best Picture oscar. Maybe that frontrunner doesn’t pan out, but there’s a clear consensus around what the movie to beat is coming out of these festivals. This year I would argue this race remains so wide open we don’t have such a clear consensus; in fact I’d call this the most wide open Best Picture race in years. Maybe it’s the overall weak year for movies, maybe it’s the feeling narratives are frozen until we learn what happens on election day, or maybe it’s because of the effect last year’s strikes have left over, but we didn’t come away from the midpoint of the fall festivals with many answers.

I’ve seen many argue for the Cannes film festival winner, Anora, as the current top contender but I personally have this strong feeling that it feels like a default choice at this point rather than a runaway clear favorite. In the Spring I thought Dune: Part Two began the movie to beat, going into the festivals it seemed like Sing Sing had become the favorite, but now with so much up in the air I have changed my predicted winner to The Brutalist – an epic period immigration drama picked up by A24 that received rave reviews at Venice and Toronto.

My decision to switch was because A24’s Sing Sing had been fading and fading fast as questions around its lackluster release strategy began to plague it. The movie is still in my predicted lineup of ten, but its gone from frontrunner to being on the cusp of not making it in to begin with. Perhaps it can get back in the hunt if the small movie gets a major push by critics, but A24 buying up distribution for both The Brutalist and Queer tells me they wanted plan Bs. The former has exploded from being listed at #25 in my last projection update to being talked about as a potential winner of multiple major oscars. The latter ended up being more divisive than I anticipated, and thus has slipped from my predicted ten for now.

Alongside The Brutalist I am currently predicting Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, The Piano Lesson, and The Nickle Boys to be the ten nominees for the grand prize come nominations morning. But to be frank I’d be surprised if all of them make it to next year’s slate. Unlike last year’s incredibly static and stagnant race, this one is much more dynamic and malleable at the moment. I can see up to half of these not making it when all is said and done. Some of these could prove to be too artsy for too many voters, too conventional for other voters, or just not as enjoyable as any other contenders that are still within striking distance to get in.

The biggest earthquake to come at this stage of the campaign was the absolute stunner of the Stephen King short story adaptation The Life Of Chuck winning the all-important audience award at Toronto. It hasn’t been since 2011 that the audience winner hasn’t gotten into Best Picture at the oscars. But its such an out-of-nowhere winner, with no real distribution as I write this, that I hesitate to predict it in the ten just yet. There was also the surprise of September 5, a film that chronicles the media coverage of the 1972 Munich tragedy, being a hit at the festivals and getting picked up by Paramount for a potential awards play. Warner Brothers announced Clint Eastwood’s final directed movie, Juror No. 2, was actually releasing this year after all; and the Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice will indeed come out in time for election season.

In terms of potential populist contenders, the Joker sequel flopped with Venice audiences and is barely hanging on now to being a contender. Gladiator II is next up to try and get the awards buzz, and Wicked will also have its chance when it releases alongside it. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga remains in the ether, but the festival contenders doing pretty well overall may have doomed its chances to stay in the hunt. And with Queer ending up more divisive than anticipated, Challengers could see a path to get in given its from the same director.

Below I’ve listed the current thirty movies I can foresee getting nominated for Best Picture at next year’s ceremony. This time i’ve grouped them into ten each among three tiers. It’s basically become a battle between heavyweight contenders, “on the bubble” contenders fighting to get in, and contenders that are within striking distance but perhaps unlikely.

I’ve already flipped on what I believe will win Best Picture two times this year and we haven’t even formally began awards season yet. In comparison last year I switched once in favor of Oppenheimer back in July and never switched again. As of mid-September, with all but one of the major fall festivals out of the way, the Best Picture race might arguably be even more competitive than the ongoing presidential campaign. Let’s see if that remains true come mid-October when I update my projections once again.

Tier 1: The Mid Fall Festivals’ Heavyweight Contenders

01. The Brutalist (+24 Since The Last Update)

02. Dune: Part Two (+0 Since The Last Update)

03. Blitz (+0 Since The Last Update)

04. Conclave (+0 Since The Last Update)

05. Anora (+0 Since The Last Update)

06. Emilia Perez (+0 Since The Last Update)

07. Saturday Night (+17 Since The Last Update)

08. Sing Sing (-7 Since The Last Update)

09. The Piano Lesson (-2 Since The Last Update)

10. The Nickel Boys (-2 Since The Last Update)

Tier 2: The Mid Fall Festivals’ “On The Bubble” Contenders

11. The Life Of Chuck (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

12. A Complete Unknown (-2 Since The Last Update)

13. September 5 (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

14. Gladiator II (-2 Since The Last Update)

15. Wicked (-1 Since The Last Update)

16. The Wild Robot (+13 Since The Last Update)

17. Queer (-8 Since The Last Update)

18. Challengers (-3 Since The Last Update)

19. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (-6 Since The Last Update)

20. Joker: Folie à Deux (-9 Since The Last Update)

06. Emilia Perez (+3 Since The Last Update)

07. The Piano Lesson (-1 Since The Last Update)

08. The Nickle Boys (-3 Since The Last Update)

09. Queer (-2 Since The Last Update)

10. A Complete Unknown (New Addition To The Board Since The Last Update)

Tier 3: The Mid Fall Festivals’ Contenders Within Striking Distance

21. The Substance (+7 Since The Last Update)

22. Nosferatu (-5 Since The Last Update)

23. Nightbitch (-5 Since The Last Update)

24. A Real Pain (-5 Since The Last Update)

25. Juror No. 2 (Returning To The Board After Confirmation Of A 2024 Release)

26. Here (+0 Since The Last Update)

27. The Room Next Door (-4 Since The Last Update)

28. The Seed Of A Sacred Fig (-7 Since The Last Update)

29. Flow (+1 Since The Last Update)

30. The Apprentice (Returning To The Board After Confirmation Of A 2024 Release)

Off The Board Since The Last Update (For Now?): Civil War; Didi; His Three Daughters; Maria