Signs of the Times?

Photo by Josh Larios from Seattle, US, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Last weekend, I took a trip through Western North Carolina and North Georgia, or as it’s more accurately known, “God’s country.” This wasn’t one of my usual fly-over trips. This time I was road-tripping with the family. My Air Force son was home on leave from Texas and among the things he wanted to see were 1) trees larger than mesquite bushes and 2) hills. Those of you from the northern climes might be surprised to know that school has already started in Georgia, but between my daughter’s class schedule and my work schedule, it had to be a weekend trip.

We roamed such idyllic mountain hamlets as Cherokee, North Carolina, and Hiawassee and Helen in Georgia, the latter of which was built to resemble a German Alpine village. In addition to being beautiful mountain villages, these places can also be described as tourist traps. Along with rambling back roads and taking in views, we perused a number of shops. While browsing I noticed something interesting: A lot of shops had Trump gear to sell, but I didn’t see a single piece of Biden or Harris swag. It went beyond the merchandise in the shops. On our drives, I saw a multitude of Trump flags and signs but none for Biden or Harris.

This is curious because North Carolina is a perennial battleground state, and Georgia was purple in 2020 and is now reportedly back in play after the big Democratic candidate swap and Trump’s attacks on our popular governor. The latest Real Clear Polling average shows Trump leading by less than two points in North Carolina and about half a point in Georgia, a statistical tie. You might think that given the equal split between the candidates, you would see at least some Democratic swag, but you don’t.

I think this disparity fueled a lot of the perception from 2020 that something was wrong. After all, Trump supporters were seeing Trump signs all over the place and talking to all their Trump-supporting friends. A lot of them probably didn’t know anyone who was voting for Joe Biden so when Trump lost, it came as a shock, especially after being assured by Republican-leaning media that Trump had it in the bag.

In the rural South, in races where there isn’t much or any local polling, there has long been a rule of thumb that whoever has the most signs is the favorite. If you see a lot of yard signs for a particular candidate, it generates at least the perception of widespread support. It also generates name recognition, which can help that candidate at the polls. If you don’t know the platforms of the candidates, you might assume that a candidate with a lot of signs has a lot of support from your friends and neighbors and must therefore be a good bet.

There’s a famous case that illustrates this paradox, which actually isn’t a paradox at all but a logical flaw. More than 50 years ago in 1972, Pauline Kael, a film critic for the New Yorker, supposedly said, “I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.” (This famous Kael quote is really a paraphrase. You can read the actual quote and context here.)

Pauline Kael’s problem was that she lived in a bubble. And the bubbles of 2024 are much more impervious to alternate points of view than the bubbles of 1972.

In 2020, one of the largest divides between Biden and Trump voters was the urban-rural divide. Nationally, New York Times exit polls showed that Joe Biden won urban areas by 60-38 and Trump won rural areas 57-42. In Georgia, the disparity was even more pronounced. Biden carried the cities 67-32 and Trump won the small towns 69-30.

And guess what, there are a lot more people in cities than there are in rural areas. In metro Atlanta, there are an estimated 2.9 million voters. That’s almost 40 percent of the 7.8 million voters in Georgia without even considering Georgia’s other cities. Simple math tells us that if urban voters in Atlanta and Savannah, Athens, etc. give Democrats a higher margin of victory in those counties, it will be difficult for Republicans to overcome their lead with the sparse voters in rural counties.

This explains the famous meme that was going around a few years ago that showed the national map of counties won by Trump versus those won by Biden. The map was almost totally red with splotches of blue. Yes, Trump won by counties but counties don’t vote. People vote and there were more people in the counties won by Joe Biden.

The disparity in signs and flags is also indicative of another disparity, the enthusiasm gap. At least until recently, Trump supporters definitely had the edge on enthusiasm. In 2020, my red, rural county (which Trump won handily) had a lot more Trump signs than Biden signs. In 2024, a lot of those signs and flags are still up. Some still say “2020” rather than being updated to the 2024 version. Many of these resemble the Trump Train’s version of Johnny Cash’s “Ragged, Old Flag.” (“She got a big rip from Capitol Police officer on January Sixth.”)

And you have to admit, that’s a bit weird. Campaign signs normally come down after the election is over. Not so with the Trump flags. I know several places where there are multiple flags on the same lot that have remained standing for four years like shrines to the loser. If it was a Democrat flying an Obama flag, Republicans would agree, but since these are Trump flags, the weirdness is normalized.

But now, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate, there is a new enthusiasm from the left. I haven’t seen Kamala flags yet, but there is a new fad in the form of a Harris-Walz camo hat. These are not as ubiquitous as the red MAGA hats, and I have yet to see one offline, but they are an indication of increased enthusiasm among Democrats.

So are the Harris rallies. Trump supporters have traditionally pointed to Trump’s rallies as signs of his popularity and inability to lose, but now Kamala Harris is drawing crowds that rival those of The Former Guy. Donald Trump is apparently so threatened by Harris’s crowds that he spread an online rumor that photos of a Democratic rally in Detroit were manipulated by AI.

Harris’s crowds are real but I’d caution Democrats the same way I responded to Trump supporters: Rallies are not an indication of votes. Don’t assume that everyone at a rally is voting for your candidate. Don’t assume that everyone at a rally is voting at all. Don’t assume that everyone at a rally is a unique individual who hasn’t come to other rallies and isn’t following their favorite politician around the country like the Grateful Dead.

Rallies and signs are an indication of support, but what really matters are votes. If the voters don’t show up to cast their ballots, rally attendance and flags are no substitute.

And there’s another factor as well. I intend to vote for Kamala Harris. I can boil this decision down to three main reasons: Trump has demonstrated that he cannot be trusted with power, I am concerned that Trump would shut off aid to Ukraine, and Trump favors a 10 percent tax on all Americans who purchase imported goods that would devastate the economy.

Having said that, I don’t fly a Kamala flag, I don’t have a Kamala sign in my yard, and I don’t have a Kamala sticker on my truck. I don’t even have the camo hat.

And I know for a fact that there are a lot of people like me out there in red counties who will be quietly voting for Harris. In red counties where the fervor among the Trump base is high, there is no need to make ourselves targets (for either harassment or actual violence) by advertising our political preferences. Like Pauline Kael, Trump supporters probably know some people who are voting for the other guy, they just don’t know that they know them.