Trump Picks Senator JD Vance as Running Mate

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  1. Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Biden is already going all out on Vance’s authoritarianism. I don’t think this is a choice a secure candidate makes. This is a shore up your base choice.Report

  2. Chip Daniels
    Ignored
    says:

    This makes official what has been obvious for years now, that even if Trump were to die tomorrow, Trumpism will still carry on.Report

  3. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    So… what does this buy Trump?

    Um, I’m pretty sure that Ohio was already sewn up. To a lesser extent, “the Midwest” can say “hey! a guy from the Midwest!” but I don’t know that that will swing as much as a full percentage point. (I remember, as a young Michigander, thinking Ohio was less cool than Michigan… I imagine that Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, as different as they are from Michigan, are somewhat aligned on this one particular point.)

    Hillbilly Elegy was a best-seller… and a book club best-seller at that. So he’s a VP that probably has had more outreach to more people than any VP in recent history just based on the fact that he was a best-seller for a few months in the middle of 2016 and then, again, in January 2017 probably based on the whole “whyever did flyover not vote for Clinton?” momentum and Vance’s book had a somewhat ready answer to that question that came from a vaguely non-partisan place.

    I don’t know how many people read it and agreed with it (or thought it made reasonable points) then and, now, are going to turn on it like it was written by JK Rowling. A non-zero number, I’m sure.

    But does the book having been read by many in 2017 buy the ticket anything that it didn’t already have?

    I’m not sure that I know what Vance actually buys Trump.

    Maybe Vance is, instead, plugging leaks. That could be. We’ll see what happens at the convention this week.Report

    • InMD in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      You’re overthinking it. Trump needs someone who can read the briefings to him. And he has the best guy in history for the job. A guy so good he can not only read a book, once he even wrote one.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to InMD
        Ignored
        says:

        Vance isn’t dumb, then? I suppose that’s a plus. I saw an opinion that he had earlier on AI… specifically that it needs to be open source. I mean, plenty of dummies have opinions on AI but this is an opinion that seems to know what “open source” means?

        Worse: I think I agree with that? Unironically?Report

    • Andrew Donaldson in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      As I have put on social media over the last few months in predicting Vance would be the VP, you have to look at is as Trump does, which is to say none of the usual political reasons for a running mate. He want total loyalty, someone really good on camera who fights and pushes the envelope, and he wants the Theil-Tech Bro money networks Vance is tapped into. We’ve basically had it confirmed it was Vance for weeks now but everyone sat on it cause confirmation doesn’t work with Trump, he could wake up this morning and change his mind. But especially the last 3 weeks there was no doubt it was Vance.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Andrew Donaldson
        Ignored
        says:

        Total loyalty? Vance has, erm, a history of, shall we say, questioning Trump.

        Eh, maybe that’ll work in Trump’s favor. Vance can argue “Hey, I was a skeptic too. I changed my mind. Here’s why.”

        And, in the future, we have something that the Republicans haven’t had since Jeb: an heir.Report

    • DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      Hillbilly Elegy has already had a lot of criticism for being, well, kinda wrong.

      Well, not wrong, it’s a memoir, it happened to him, and he seems to have been mostly accurate about that and even mostly got what happened correct, but he, and everyone else, over generalized it over…a frankly huge part of America that many many different problems. I don’t even know that’s what he was intending, it’s just that the book arrived at exactly the right time, as you said. And since then, he sorta just went with it, eventually convincing himself he was right.

      But it’s basically Oversimplification, the book, and manages to ignore huge chunks of everything.

      It also frames the failure of Appalachia as a moral individual failing, which…is not true. Unless by ‘moral failing’ you mean ‘weird cultural hangups that makes people reject any sort of help’, but that _not_ what Vance means. (Or he wouldn’t have joined the political party that helps reinforce that.)

      Or, here, just read this: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/hillbilly-elegy-doesnt-reflect-the-appalachia-i-know/617228/

      “The film and book need Appalachia to be poor, broken, and dirty, because they depend on us believing that the mountains are somewhere we want Vance to escape. They need to frame poverty as a moral failing of individuals—as opposed to systems—because they have to imply that something about Vance’s character allowed him to get away from his hillbilly roots. Hillbilly Elegy has to simplify the people and problems of Appalachia, because it has decided to tell the same old pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps narrative that so many of us reject.”

      And again, _as a memoir_, this is fine. People understand and present their history in different ways, and it’s fine for Vance to have written a memoir like that. Hell, a lot of people just sorta make things up for their memoirs, so the fact he didn’t, that his seems mostly truthful, is commendable. But…everyone decided that this book Explained Everything, but it doesn’t really mean anything, it’s just some guy talking about his past.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to DavidTC
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        says:

        Eh, I don’t want to read what The Atlantic thinks is wrong with Vance’s book. Certainly not a 2020 take.

        What about the swings?Report

        • DavidTC in reply to Jaybird
          Ignored
          says:

          Do the swings even know anything about it, or anything about Vance at all?

          Although really my first question is always ‘Why are we pretending the swing voters exist and make decisions based in rationality?’

          I am having trouble seeing anything that Vance brings to the ticket, and I don’t really see how a 7-year-old book and a 4-year-old movie that only political wonks cared about are going to fix that.

          What is the process that book becomes relevant? Is he supposed to be presented as someone who is uniquely understanding of the struggles of poor rural communities?

          Because there’s a kind of fundamental problem in the way of that, and that’s Trump. Trump isn’t going to let anyone else be the expert in things.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to DavidTC
            Ignored
            says:

            Do the swings even know anything about it, or anything about Vance at all?

            This is why I bring up that Hillbilly Elegy was a book club book. Maribou has explained to me that her book club is a bit of an outlier because people actually read the books and discuss them rather than, you know, drink wine but I’m willing to assume that a book club book has a much better shot of getting read than one that isn’t like that.

            Heck, they even made a movie about the book.

            So when you ask “do the swings even know anything about it?”, I’d say “some of them do, yeah”.

            What is the process that book becomes relevant? Is he supposed to be presented as someone who is uniquely understanding of the struggles of poor rural communities?

            I don’t know how it becomes “relevant” as much as he’s the guy who wrote the book that a bunch of people in the book clubs have actually read. Assuming that it was a read-the-book book club.

            I assume that it was compelling enough to become one for a reason.

            As for “uniquely understanding of the struggles of poor rural communities”, it’s kind of a “compared to who?” sitch.

            Compared to Trump? Yeah, I think he’s got a shot.
            Compared to Kamala? Yeah, I think he’s got a shot.
            Compared to Biden? Maybe. The Corn Pop thing was real, of course. That was urban. Maybe that’s what it hinges on. “Poor rural”.Report

            • InMD in reply to Jaybird
              Ignored
              says:

              Caveat: I have not read the book.

              My understanding is that it has more of a Kevin Williamson (who I did periodically read with interest) message, i.e. that in many respects the rural (particularly white) poor are responsible for their own condition. The implication then was that Trump was the latest false prophet and vehicle for blaming everything under the sun but themselves. I believe he has now, at minimum, softened on that line.Report

            • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird
              Ignored
              says:

              “This is why I bring up that Hillbilly Elegy was a book club book.”

              It’s also important to remember that despite people now talking about how it’s crapping on rural right-wingers, it was seen as extremely pro right-wing when it came out, mostly because of its thesis that the solution to people’s problems was for those people to Shut Up And Shape Up.Report

              • Andrew Donaldson in reply to DensityDuck
                Ignored
                says:

                The point of Hillbilly Elegy wasn’t to highlight rural problems or right-wing politics

                The point of Hillbilly Elegy was to highlight how awesome JD Vance was to the right kinds of people (cause without the heliography of that book he’s just another Ivy League law school grad and VC bro) for having overcome rural problems and right-wing politics, which is even more craven now that once he got into politics, he massages right-wing politics with one hand while seeking power with the other.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Andrew Donaldson
                Ignored
                says:

                Tracing woodgrains wrote a quick essay about Vance.

                I’d like to hear your take on it:

                Quick take on Vance: his appointment as VP suggests that the GOP is looking to make an appeal to anti-woke Silicon Valley or finance types to fill the void left by the Republican Party’s competency crisis.

                Right now, there is tremendous asymmetry between the parties in policy positions. The Democrats have a massive bench of people whose traditional qualifications are through the roof. The Republicans simply don’t, and historically Trump has been pretty repugnant to what
                @powerfultakes
                calls elite human capital. But you need to fill political appointments from somewhere.

                The Thiel-adjacent wing is one of the few exceptions here, and it’s expanding. You’re seeing endorsements from, and overtures to, Elon Musk, the All-In Podcast guys, and Bill Ackman. Republicans offer a sort of Faustian bargain to ambitious anti-woke secular sorts: make your peace with the evangelicals, pander to social conservatism, and gain sway in a coalition crying out for policy competence. More than a few will take that bargain. People are drawn to power voids.

                Vance is of that class. He’s smart, ambitious, Thiel-aligned, and in tune with the online right. He’s cynical enough to flip 180 degrees on a dime, and the Trump-populists are desperate enough for competence that they’ll accept his flip. He knows more than almost anyone about the right’s human capital problem. If I had to guess, I suspect that whatever he talks about, from day 1 that will be the problem he focuses most on solving.

                All in all, his appointment makes me take seriously the possibility that Trump’s second term will focus seriously on setting a policy foundation for the future versus just being cult-of-personality stuff.

                Part of me wants to imagine I like who Vance is deep down, but I don’t actually know who he is deep down.

                I’m wary.

                Report

              • Andrew Donaldson in reply to Jaybird
                Ignored
                says:

                Tweeted this earlier but it applies to this as well and overlaps:

                Fascist is the wrong word, & meaningless term in current environment where that nomenclatures been beat to death twice over

                Getting your VP selection is declaration of faction power. The edgelord-techbro oligarchy Vance represents sees their opening to ride Trumps wake to power

                Quote
                Bill Kristol
                No surprise. The most self-consciously and unapologetically fascist-adjacent figures in Trump’s orbit–Carlson, Musk, Sacks, and Thiel–were for Vance.Report

              • Jaybird in reply to Andrew Donaldson
                Ignored
                says:

                I have fewer hard feelings for the edgelord-techbro oligarchy than most.

                For one thing, they’re thinking about the future rather than the past.

                Good info. Thanks.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Andrew Donaldson
                Ignored
                says:

                I dunno. I don’t recall the book being all that much about I’m So Great Because I’m Great, it was more of a bootstraps narrative. But he wasn’t writing about me personally, so it probably doesn’t land the same for me.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to DensityDuck
                Ignored
                says:

                That’s pretty much Vance’s theme in all his public statements that I’ve seen, that he despises most of America and wants us to Shut Up and Shape Up.Report

  4. James K
    Ignored
    says:

    Vance once described Trump as “America’s Hitler”. I suppose that means Vance wants to be America’s Hindenburg.Report

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