Sam Bankman-Fried Gets 25 Year Prison Sentence

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has been the Managing Editor of Ordinary Times since 2018, is a widely published opinion writer, and appears in media, radio, and occasionally as a talking head on TV. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter@four4thefire. Andrew is the host of Heard Tell podcast. Subscribe to Andrew'sHeard Tell Substack for free here:

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34 Responses

  1. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    Credit where due. Jaybird’s guess was spot-on.

    I would gladly live in a world where sentences for this sort of thing were shorter but more certainly handed out. (And not just for white-collar crime, but that’s a whole different subject.) We don’t now live in such a world, though, and I see no reason that this jerk should be treated as if we did. So no problem with the sentence.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci
      Ignored
      says:

      Well, my guess was that that was going to be his sentence but not, like, the amount of time in prison.

      The current fun guess would be “how long will it *REALLY* be?”

      I give it 50-50 that he’s pardoned before January.Report

      • CJColucci in reply to Jaybird
        Ignored
        says:

        This is another area where reporters talking to experts would be useful. There are plenty of lawyers (though I’m not one of them) who could give a solid estimate of actual prison time (assuming good behavior) based on their walking-around knowledge. I’d have to spend hours of research to come to some sort of responsible conclusion and it isn’t worth my while to do that.
        When you say “before January” do you mean before the end of January or by December 31? That could make a big difference.Report

      • Jesse in reply to Jaybird
        Ignored
        says:

        So, you were wrong about him ever being charged because of his connections, you were wrong about him ever going to trial, you were wrong about him being convicted, and you were wrong about his length of sentence.

        All because you want a “BSDI” charge of how the Democrat’s are just as corrupt as the GOP, but it kept on failing on you. But, you continued on, because all of your sources were telling it was going to happen this time.

        Maybe, just maybe, if ole’ SBF is still behind bars on January 31st, 2025, will you attack to all of your posts form now on, “I was horribly wrong about SBF, and zero of my predictions should be treated as anything but partisan wishes against a group I claim to support, but really don’t like.”Report

        • Jaybird in reply to Jesse
          Ignored
          says:

          In my defense, charges *WERE* dropped.

          Just not all of them.

          you were wrong about his length of sentence

          Not yet, I’m not. My guess was that he’d get an Ebbers.

          I somehow chanced into being right about that.

          For what it’s worth, I hope I am wrong, wrong, wrong about him only serving a single-digit percent of his sentence. But it remains my guess.Report

  2. Burt Likko
    Ignored
    says:

    25 years is, to my understanding, a SUPER long Federal sentence. This is a thrown book.Report

  3. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    So if you’re offering even-money odds that Biden will pardon him or commute his sentence, I’ll take the other side of that bet. How much are you willing to put up?Report

    • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci
      Ignored
      says:

      $20 bucks, donation to a charity of the other’s choice. Screenshot of the receipt will do.

      I will not feel secure in my bet until the day after election day. (The election is the 50/50, you see.)

      If Biden gets re-elected, I won’t want to bet.

      If Trump gets (re-?)elected, I’ll be happy to.Report

  4. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    Now you’re changing the bet. The election results are irrelevant. You said it was 50-50 that SBF would be pardoned before Inauguration Day. Biden is the only person who could pardon him before Inauguration Day, and he can do it whether he’s re-elected or not. Maybe he won’t bother if he’s re-elected, but that’s not the betting proposition. The betting proposition is that Biden pardons SBF, which can’t be settled until either he does it or he’s no longer President and can’t do it anymore.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci
      Ignored
      says:

      The 50-50 was based one which party would get elected.

      If you agree with my take on the upcoming election, dude. Seriously. I’m good with that.

      Do you see my take as accurate?

      And if not “accurate”, worth complaining about the other party as having substantially changed the bet?Report

  5. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    So tell us in plain English what the betting proposition is on which you’re offering even money odds. Is it that Biden will pardon SBF or not?Report

  6. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    So if Biden wins it’s a push?Report

  7. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    The more you explain, the less I understand.Report

  8. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    I remember the Marc Rich pardon. What I don’t understand is what your betting proposition is. That’s not a question of my memory, but of your ability or willingness to say something clear enough to bet on.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to CJColucci
      Ignored
      says:

      Biden’s pardon will happen before he leaves office. That might be in January of next year. It might be in 2029. It might be between those two dates for a host of reasons. “The pardon will come from Biden before he is no longer president” is my thought.

      “But what if he doesn’t win the election?”

      “Well, then. It’ll happen before inauguration day.”

      “WHAT IF HE DOES?!?”

      “Well, then. It’ll happen before he stops being president whether that be in January 2029 or whether it be on one of the days between 2025 and 2029 and there are a host of reasons that he might not be president until 2029.”

      “WHAT IF HE DIES?!?”

      “Yes. That’s one of the potential reasons that he might not be president. They will find that the pardon happened the night before and it was signed by autopen or something.”

      “BUT WHAT IF HE WINS THE ELECTION?!?!?”

      “Didn’t we answer that already?”

      “I can’t comprehend what you’re saying.”

      “I am not seeing this as a ‘me’ problem.”Report

      • North in reply to Jaybird
        Ignored
        says:

        So you’re saying that at some point Joe fishin’ Biden is gonna pardon SBF? Seems wildly, insanely unlikely.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to North
          Ignored
          says:

          Yes. That is what I am saying.

          I am also saying that it will take place in such a way that the blame lies solely on him and no one else and after defenders will be able to say “well, it’s not like he’s president anymore”.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
            Ignored
            says:

            Or, wait. I find that I have been pushed into a stronger position than the one I actually hold. It’s not that Biden will necessarily pardon SBF.

            My strong position is that SBF won’t see 30 months in the pen (10% of the 25 year sentence).

            “A pardon” is the first answer to pop into my head when I think “How will he wiggle out of his sentence prior to 30 months?”

            There are other ways that he would get out prior to 10% of his sentence passing.

            That’s what strikes me as exceedingly likely.

            A pardon? Eh. 50-50 odds on that.Report

  9. CJColucci
    Ignored
    says:

    So your betting proposition is that sometime during Biden’s presidency, however long that lasts, he will pardon SBF? That’s simple and understandable, so that probably isn’t it.Report

  10. Brandon Berg
    Ignored
    says:

    Why do we imprison people who commit high-level fraud? In general, they do not have the technical skills necessary to do much damage acting alone. They do damage by lying to people. Once they’re exposed and widely known to be con artists, they’re essentially defanged, right?

    So why imprison them? If incapacitation isn’t important, the only reasons to imprison them are revenge and deterrence, and I’m told by my betters that revenge is barbaric and deterrence doesn’t work.Report

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