Really the question on Capitol Hill is after horse trading his way out of several tight spots already, how many horses does Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy have left to get his Raucous Caucus through an appropriations fight, possible government shutdown, and probably impeachment push.
If you work at the DCCC or you’re camped out in House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ second-floor Capitol office, the current state of the Republican Conference probably has you salivating.
No. 1: House Republicans are on a path to force a government shutdown this fall. If you talk to senior GOP leadership figures privately, they’ll admit this. At some point between now and the end of 2023, the rift inside the House Republican Conference will be so deep and profound that there’s little chance that they can avert a “lapse in appropriations,” aka a government shutdown.
The party disagrees internally on spending levels, policy priorities and riders — just to name a few differences. And this is even before engaging with Democrats or the White House.
The strategy at this point for the House GOP leadership is try to pass the toughest bills it can, and then get into a negotiation with the Senate. But just listen to Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), a leader in the far-right House Freedom Caucus, describing the upcoming funding fight. He’s in no mood to compromise.
“We’re going to pass a good Republican bill out of the House and force the Senate and the White House to accept it.”
This approach almost never works. See 2013 and 2018 as prime examples. But this is the mood inside the HFC, especially after the debt-limit deal. There’s little goodwill or appetite to compromise.
House conservatives are already rebelling against Republican-crafted spending bills — even when a Freedom Caucus member helped write the measure. Putting four HFC members on the Appropriations Committee was supposed to help avoid this scenario.
Yet there’s serious concern that the GOP leadership won’t be able to bring the FY2024 Agriculture appropriations package to the floor this week because it doesn’t go far enough for the right on cutting spending.
Leaving their weekly meeting on Tuesday night, HFC members were mum regarding where they are on the appropriations process.
HFC Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) told us there’s “a little confusion or a lot of confusion” on appropriations at the movement, but didn’t elaborate any further. OK then!
No. 2: When Republicans finally get their spending bills to the floor, the divisions won’t end. For instance, GOP lawmakers will be forced to vote for changes to critical nutrition programs, including food stamps, as part of the debate over the ag funding bill. These cuts won’t be supported by the Senate or White House. Which means Speaker Kevin McCarthy and GOP leaders will be asking vulnerable House Republicans to take tough votes that could come back to haunt them in 2024.
No. 3: At the same time, House Republicans are likely — if not certain — to impeach President Joe Biden. McCarthy said Tuesday that the “only way” Republicans could investigate their claims against Biden, the IRS, the Justice Department and the FBI is if they open an impeachment inquiry into Biden. Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is openly speculating whether Biden accepted bribes from Ukrainian figures tied to Hunter Biden. The younger Biden is scheduled to be in court today as part of his federal plea deal on tax and gun charges, an agreement that House Republicans are trying to block.
Now keep in mind, even if the House impeaches Biden, the Democratic-controlled Senate will ultimately acquit him. But this process — and the political fallout — will dominate Capitol Hill for months.
And again, vulnerable House Republicans will be asked to take tough votes that could rebound against them down the road.
“We will strongly oppose any effort to either launch an impeachment inquiry or go down the rabbit hole of promoting conspiracy theories related to President Joe Biden,” Jeffries told us Tuesday.
Here’s how DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene views it: “Republicans continue to highlight that they are extreme. They aren’t interested in governing, and there’s no leadership. It’s terrible for the American people.”
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, who is charged with protecting the GOP’s five-seat majority, said he still thinks Republicans have the political advantage. Hudson said the party is “hopeful” they won’t have a shutdown. And the sixth-term member doesn’t think it’s a “foregone conclusion” that Republicans will impeach Biden.
“We gotta keep moving forward,” Hudson said of House Republicans. “We got to keep finding out where 218 is in our conference to demonstrate we know how to govern.”
Yet the twin specter of a government shutdown and Biden’s impeachment loom for House Republicans in coming months.
Kevin McCarthy couldn’t deliver a pizza.Report
Yeah but Mitch “the glitch” McConnell won’t smack him publicly. Nor will any other prominent Senators. Because they all hope the Freedom Caucus eats its own. Or something.
Idiotic cowards.Report