Trump’s Classified Document Trial Scheduled

Boxes of records, including classified and secret info, stored in a bathroom at Mar-A-Lago.

Judge Cannon has scheduled a jury trial for Trump’s classified documents case to begin May 20, 2024. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s right after the bulk of the GOP presidential primary should be wrapped up.

The timing for Trump’s classified document trial isn’t great for anyone involved. The timing for political press and media couldn’t be better.

Washington Post:

U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon heard arguments from both sides on Tuesday and said she would issue her decision promptly. On Friday, she scheduled a jury trial to begin in the Fort Pierce Division of the U.S. District Court in Southern Florida during the two-week period that begins May 20, 2024.

Picking a date — which could still be delayed depending on pretrial motions and other issues — was complicated. Trump was indicted on state charges earlier this year in New York and is scheduled to stand trial there in March. On top of that, Trump’s attorneys wanted Cannon to take into account his busy campaign schedule.

Trump is the early front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination. By late May, the bulk of the Republican primary contests will be completed — meaning there is a significant possibility that Trump could go to trial in the classified documents case as his party’s presumptive nominee. Postponing the proceedings until after the election, on the other hand, would have raised the possibility that if Trump or another Republican won, they could try to push the Justice Department to drop the case once in office.

Criminal investigations Trump faces are consuming his campaign funds, message

Trump and a longtime aide, Waltine “Walt” Nauta, were charged last month in a 38-count indictment that accused the former president of improperly retaining 31 classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida residence and private club. Prosecutors alleged that Trump enlisted Nauta to help him keep some highly classified materials despite the government’s efforts to have them returned.

The two men pleaded not guilty during separate court appearances in Miami. Trump has assailed this case and other investigations scrutinizing him as politically motivated.

So, choose your prediction adventure here. If current polling holds up where Trump is currently up 20+ points in three of the four early states (Nevada is yet to have reliable polling), Trump might well be the GOP nominee in all but name by late May. If something happens where someone else like DeSantis has overtaken him, by late May they should have the nomination well in hand. Or, to really make this a Movie of The Week, someone closes the gap and Trump is in a heated race with Kentucky and Oregon having primaries on the second day of the trial, and the “out of GOP compliance” states of Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Washington DC currently penciled in for what would be the second week of the trial.

Now, most likely with the GOP primary calendar heavily frontloaded this cycle, the nomination should be all but wrapped up come May. Then you get the fun of potentially having a convicted Donald Trump sometime in June, and then what does the GOP do? If he’s acquitted, how does that play into the campaign and the conventions? If Trump loses the primary does the GOP still have him at the convention? Does Trump not show up and tell his followers to boycott, a la Georgia runoffs, or does he show up and throw a grenade into a modern convention that are set up to be coronations, not floor fights? Which would be worse for the GOP?

Oh, and this might not be the only trial for Donald J. Trump in 2024…

Throw out the rulebooks and Katy, bar the door; this is going to be one interesting campaign season.