What is a National Divorce?
Over the past few years, it has become fashionable in certain circles to talk about a “national divorce.” The term sounds somewhat innocuous but also has sinister undertones. What exactly do these people mean by a national divorce and what would it look like?
The national divorce idea isn’t solely the province of crackpots, although crackpots undoubtedly form a majority of support for the idea. This month, “Reason” magazine featured a dueling op-ed on the topic, “Debate: It’s Time for a National Divorce.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene (Q-Ga.) was one of the most recent people to advocate a national divorce. Back in February, Greene tweeted in favor of the idea, saying, “Everyone I talk to says this.”
Greene probably does not talk to many people outside her own fringe MAGA Republican and Qanon circles, but an Axios-Ipsos survey from March found that 20 percent of Americans favor the national divorce idea. That is a significant share of the US population, but it’s nowhere near a majority.
In her tweet, Greene defines the idea by saying, “We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.”
That sounds a lot like a call for civil war.
To be fair, the proponents of a national divorce don’t openly advocate for civil war. In a separate tweet thread, Greene explains that she wants “not a civil war but a legal agreement to separate our ideological and political disagreements by states while maintaining our legal union.”
So what Greene favors isn’t outright secession per se, but a “secession lite” in which the federal government is weakened and states basically do whatever they want. The United States would become “a house divided” and would continue to be American in name only.
That doesn’t really describe a divorce. In a divorce, the two parties are separated and no longer live in the same house. What Greene describes is more like a frigid marriage in which the spouses live in opposite ends of the same house and maintain a fragile peace by not having any contact. That does not sound like a pleasant way to live in my opinion, whether personally or nationally.
There are several obvious problems with the idea. I’ll start with the most obvious, which is that Greene’s plan would be a violation of the Constitution. In one tweet, Greene floats the idea that only taxpayers would be allowed to vote in red states. The constitutional problem here is that the 24th Amendment and Supreme Court rulings have outlawed poll taxes. It is unconstitutional to require voters to pay in order to vote.
A second example is Greene’s desire to throw out environmental regulations. The problem here is that refusal to abide by these laws would run afoul of the interstate commerce clause. Regulating commerce across state lines is a basic function of the federal government, yet Greene is rejecting a large chunk of the federal government’s constitutional authority. These are two examples of how red-state utopianists like Greene would run afoul of the Constitution that they claim to revere, but I’m sure there are others.
What the red-state utopias would look like is also a matter for debate among national divorce proponents. Angela McArdle, a Libertarian who argued for national divorce in the “Reason” article, favors a limited-government view in which “we should have the absolute right to choose how we live our lives, so long as we do not aggress upon others.” But Greene’s list of ideas for red states is an expansion of right-wing culture war talking points that is at odds with the libertarian view. Greene wants to require prayer and the pledge of allegiance in schools, ban males from girls’ sports, and regulate where stores could place products on their shelves. That’s not exactly enshrining personal choice.
About the only thing the Big Government MAGA crowd and the Libertarians are likely to share is the desire for a national divorce. The details of what comes after will be hotly debated.
Another huge flaw with the national divorce idea is that a lot of what Greene wants to accomplish would not be allowed by federal courts. With red states still under the Constitution, federal courts would enjoin red-state attempts to infringe upon the rights of their citizens as they attempt to impose their Big State Government version of a right-wing utopia. I doubt that the divorce proponents would look kindly upon such rulings.
Ultimately, the national divorce under the same roof would be a pit stop on the road to true national divorce and secession. Of course, no president is going to willingly allow the country to rupture at the seams under his watch. Even a Republican president who is sympathetic to national divorce wouldn’t allow it because it would diminish his own authority.
That brings me to another point. National divorce is loser talk. It only comes out when Republicans lose elections. If Republicans win the presidency, talk of national divorce will disappear.
At any rate, if a national divorce took place, we would eventually reach a point where its unhappy proponents would push for complete separation because it isn’t really the federal government and the liberal majority (there is no national liberal majority) that are stymieing their dreams; it’s the Constitution. That would put us back on the precipice of civil war because what Greene and MAGA want from a national divorce is unworkable under the Constitution.
The biggest flaw with the idea of national divorce is that red states are not ideologically monolithic. Unlike Civil War I, the nation is not geographically segregated into neat red and blue enclaves. Red states contain large pockets of blue voters and blue states include many red voters. Today, the divide is between rural and urban areas. The nation today is not so easily divided along geographic lines.
The difficulty for the red states can be seen in the Axios poll, which found that even though support for national divorce was at an average of 20 percent overall, only 12 percent said that they would want to move to a state that wanted to secede while 47 percent would want to leave a state that favored secession. It seems that many of the people who like the national divorce concept think it’s a great idea… for someone else.
Republicans were the most favorable towards divorce or secession, but even among Republicans, the idea only had 25 percent support. Greene is out of the mainstream in her own party. Conservatives make up the largest ideological group in the US, but Greene’s ideas are not conservative.
For me personally, I wouldn’t want to live in a one-party state that was run by either Democrats or Republicans. Both parties have extremes that need to be tempered by minority opposition. Both parties have some good planks to their platforms but both also have disturbing blind spots in their ideologies.
Whether the partisans realize it or not, they need each other and America needs both of them. And it needs them to be sane.
A government run by either party without an opposition party serving as a conscience would be more likely to create an authoritarian hell rather than a utopia. Unchecked power invariably leads to abuse.
That’s the real conservative and libertarian view.
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On a personal note, I wrote a few months ago about my diagnosis of prostate cancer. I had surgery in February and last week had a blood test that indicated that my PSA level, a proxy for cancer, was undetectable. Hallelujah for answered prayers. I have started a blog about my experience at My Prostate Cancer Journey (https://myprostatecancerjourney.substack.com/). If you have prostate cancer or know someone who does, check it out.
Considering that the GOP has waged a now 60 year campaign to dismantle the regulatory state They already dismiss much of the Constitution anyway.
They have convinced themselves they would be unharmed in such a world – indeed many of them believe they will flourish.Report
First, those who talk about national divorce are almost always lying.
The reason being that their agenda, as you point out, consists not of living their lives as they wish, but in telling other people how to live their lives.
There isn’t anything they want to do which they aren’t free to do right now.
No one is forcing them to have abortions, or change their gender. They are free to pray as they wish, speak as they want, live in whatever fashion they see fit.
Their complaint is that somewhere someone else has freedom, the freedom to do something that offends the conservative.
Somewhere a parent is being loving and accepting of a trans child. Somewhere a woman decides to terminate a pregnancy. Somewhere a gay couple decides to adopt a child, or a teacher tells her class about the Tulsa Massacre.
The freedom to do these things infuriate the conservatives, and they are seething with resentment and looking for any way possible to put an end to this freedom.Report
I am spectacularly thrilled at the good news on the cancer treatment. All the best wishes.Report
Agreed.Report
Hurrah! Congratulations!Report
Fantastic health news! And that’s a very good point about the parties in the new split states.
I’d note that National Divorce also comes up when Democrats lose elections, often for California, and often as encouraging the conservatives/South to split. But they typically prefer resistance, which is National Spousal Abuse.Report
CalExit was a thing briefly in 2017, it is true. But while it snookered a lot of California liberals into exploring the idea, the political effort yo move the state in that direction “…was founded in 2015 by Louis J. Marinelli, a right-wing political activist, and its efforts have been supported by the Russian government.”Report
Aaaaaaand SCENE!Report
And you think the blue states are?
I suppose if you’re conservative, all the liberals look alike; over here on this side of the aisle, we have to really squint hard to discern differences among those sporting elephant pins. “No, we’re different here in Inner Pennsyltucky! We only want to criminalize abortions after eleven weeks. Super-reasonable here compared to those six-weekers next door in Outer Pennsyltucky. Totally different ideologies at work here.”
But it’s human nature, I suppose, to see those with whom you mostly disagree in a more monolithic way than those with whom you mostly agree. Although the truth is I suspect we all really agree a lot more than we disagree — we just spend a lot more energy thinking about those issues upon which we do disagree.
And I can be persuaded that most of those differences are driven by cultural identity rather than fundamental moral differences or even more powerful, economic imperatives. Still thinking about this one, but I want it to be true. And if it is, “national divorce” is not just a bad idea that will work out well for no one, it’s insanity.Report
I read that slightly differently. I think the argument was the scenario of red states seeking a divorce and setting up new laws conflicts with the variety of beliefs within a red state. It doesn’t presuppose anything about the positions of red or blue individuals.Report
My quasi-informed take is that conservatives/Republicans have more regional variation while liberals/Democrats are just more muddled across the board.
Put a Bible Belt Republican (generally focused on social conservatism) and a Big Sky Republican (generally focused on small government conservatism) and a NE Country Club Republican (generally focused on economic conservatism) together in a room and see how little they actually agree on.
Meanwhile, for the other side, I don’t know that you can chunk them regionally so neatly as opposed to drawing lines between the different flavors of liberals/Democrats.
Purely by happenstance, I think this phenomenon tends to favor solidarity on the right side more than the left, since all those different groups don’t actually have to get in the room together and can merely pull the lever marked R and let things get sorted out elsewhere. Dems suffer from much more infighting because the socialist and the hippie and the Kennedy are all sitting in the quad together already.Report
I think of it this way: Where the Republican agenda converges, the Democratic agenda accretes.
There’s a harmony of result between the Bible Belt Conservative (“I want to be able to send my child to a private Christian school, away from all those woke secular humanist teachers, where they’ll learn the Bible alongside all the other facts of the world!”), a Big Sky Republican (“It isn’t appropriately the role of the government to be educating kids in the first place, that’s a function principally for the family and if the government gets involved at all, it should be at the most local level possible,”) and a Country Club Republican (“Who’s going to pay for that expensive public school anyway? Taxes are already too high. Yes, there is a Santa Claus, Virginia, and his name is fiscal responsbility!”). They can all agree on “cut spending to public schools” even if there are different pathways to get to the same destination.
Meanwhile put a BLM Democrat, an AFSCME Democrat, and a Greenpeace Democrat in the same room, and what you’ll get isn’t multiple pathways to the same result, you’ll get multiple results that are not inconsistent with one another. A robust racial equity curriculum in the public schools and police reform are perfectly compatible with an increase in prevailing wages and more funding for OSHA and all of those are compatible with a carbon tax and an electric vehicle mandate. And (if you’re basically liberal) all of those things are good! What they wind up bickering about is prioritizing all of the items on the laundry list.Report
The issue for Democrats is that if you put 10 Democrats in a room and asked them to make a list of their top 5 priorities, you would see some overlap. If you asked them to now come up with 1 list with the top 5 priorities for all 10, all hell would break loose.Report
At the same time, liberals are saying that Republicans don’t stand for anything and are tearing their party apart. The narratives are opposites.Report
Those are the Trump Republicans. They don’t stand for anything, and they are tearing their party apart. (The country, too.)Report
If you read Lawyers, Guns & Money, the front pagers and the commentariate believe the Trump Republicans stand for white Christian nationalism. Just sayin’, everyone’s mileage may differ.Report
I’d partially agree. You don’t have to be a white Christian nationalist to find something appealing in Trumpian nationalism, but I’d agree it sure doesn’t hurt. I don’t often drop by LGM myself, but I wish them well.Report
Are they Trump Republicans?Report
“They can all agree on “cut spending to public schools” even if there are different pathways to get to the same destination.”
Well, sure.
But alot of them also RELY on public schools.
So when the Bible Belter says, “Of course we need the 10 Commandments in school!” I imagine the Big Skyer might say, “Hold yer horses there, feller.” You might get the Country Clubber on board but they might also argue whether we are talking the Presbyterian commandments or the Baptist commandments and/or the CC-er might well say, “Sure, I believe in the Big Ten but who talks about religion in public?!”
They may agree on Bumper Stick politics but the cultural differences would be pretty pronounced and they simply aren’t confronted by them because they’re so far apart from one another.Report
The Republicans in the Gilead of Shasta County seem not that different to me than Republicans out of Tennessee or Alabama or New JerseyReport
Well, have you actually spoken to any of them?Report
As the long-time resident believer that partition can happen, more interested in the question of what are the conditions necessary for a partition to happen… (a) the root cause that precipitates a partition (or significant devolution of power, take your pick) will be largely agreed on within states/regions but not between states/regions; (b) responses to the effects of climate change are most likely to be such a root cause; (c) there are other events that make a partition easier or not; and (d) the stuff people write about so much these days may be contributing factors but only if Big Sort stuff happens at a bigger scale. (Keep in mind that I’m still putting partition at least 30 years out.)
Without bothering with details, it is likely that deep-red Alabama and deep-red Wyoming will experience very different climate change effects and are very likely to demand quite different policy emphasis. Deep-red Wyoming and quite-blue Colorado are likely to experience similar problems and agree on the large-scale policies they want.Report
Is this fundamentally different than the sorts of things that keep us together? We already have a federal government that possesses the ability to craft (or help craft) different solutions to problems that are regional in nature. There really isn’t much need for a Bureau of Reclamation in New England, but there certainly is a need to subsidize the Acela.Report
Making divorce financially untenable is a pretty good way to keep the spouse in the house.
And, seriously. Do they think that they would be better off without us even without taking financial wellbeing into account? How delusional is that?Report
Yes, they do. Because the whole male power structure would again be able to act economically unfettered – eg pre Regulatory state.
Want a concrete example? Here in Mississippi we remain one of 11 states who have refused the ACA’s Medicare and Medicaid expansion. Allegedly because of cost. But this year, the GOP Governor’s state economist delivered study results showing the jobs generated, and the medical costs reduced by expansion dwarf the costs to state coffers both short and long term. Yet the Governor refuses to back expansion as does the outgoing speaker of the House because “the politics aren’t good.” meaning that black people and economically poor white people will benefit from something they haven’t earned. Take away the ACA – because you take away the current federal construct – and this becomes a non issue.Report
I’m glad your treatment is going well.
National Divorce is a fantasy for political hobbyists and some media types or politicians with a brand for extremist rhetoric like MTG. I’m sure many people wish for it but an actual partition of the United States would be a complete nightmare. For the most part, politics are just as much divided on a county by county level as they are on a state level. California has sections of it which are just as reactionary as Idaho. Alabama has towns and counties which are as blue as the Bay Area.
Red states need access to blue city ports to ship their own goods to sale in foreign markets and to receive goods from foreign markets. There is the issue of splitting up the military and its equipment, water rights, ocean access, etc.Report
The real reason that national divorce won’t happen is the geography is a lot more trickier than it was during the Civil War. You don’t have two relatively clean blocks but divisions based on census tract. Wisconsin is basically a Democratic and Republican state smashed together as one. Coastal California votes Democratic while the interior areas are very Republican, Upstate vs. Downstate New York.Report
I keep saying the better analogy is the Troubles, where people who hated each other lived side by side and couldn’t partition.
If the Republicans don’t pull out of their current tailspin into ethno-nationalism, we could see a low level pattern of assassinations, bombings and sporadic street violence.Report
I think that is a depressing possibility that many people on our side are still blind too but increasingly opening their eyes to. The Republicans are going down a bad path that can’t lead anywhere good. Our side is divided between the people that want to make secular upper middle class behavior the code of conduct and the people that really chafe at this. While a creature of the secular upper middle class, I really don’t see how it can form a basis for a mass code of conduct. There going to be a lot of people who basically agree with us on end goals but want something more aggressive and earthy and can’t stand both the over reliance on reason and touchy-feely positivity nature of secular upper middle class code of conducts.Report
The sheer size of the United States will make things less intense than Northern Ireland though, at least with open violence. Northern Ireland was only about 5000 square miles, so there was no way to avoid the Troubles. America is going to have large swathes where things seem calm on the surface at least.Report
Agree mostly.
But let’s not forget actual history.
Oklahoma City happened, the Atlanta Millenial bombing happened, and there already sporadic plots and occurrences of rightwing domestic terrorism including bomb threats to a children’s hospital.
And yes, even in Northern Ireland there were plenty of places that felt very peaceful because that’s how it always is.
Point being, the Trumpists don’t want to just sit in Ruralia clutching their guns and Bibles. They want to travel to blue cities and confront those they hate.Report
I can think of lots of states that have a big, high-population Democratic cluster (mostly urban and urban-adjacent areas) mushed in with Republican outlying regions (mostly rural and rural-adjacent). Wisconsin is a fine example of this. So is Oregon. So is California. So is New York. So is Texas. So is Washington. So is Pennsylvania. So is Illinois. So is Michigan. So is Virginia. So is Georgia.
And this is why we can’t have a national divorce like was attempted in 1865. The principal differences are even more cultural than they are economic, and they break down along rural-versus-urban lines, subdividing nearly every region between what would be the two emergent groups.
Here in Oregon we have the Greater Idaho movement, which is the morphed successor of the State of Jefferson movement. “National Divorce” could look something like that. Although I think it is exceedingly unlikely that Salem would let the eastern counties go, even if the eastern counties said they wanted to go (many of them have). And it’s an open question whether Idaho would want to take them. (Something to do with the balance of tax receipts.)
Devolution could happen, though, and could even be relatively peaceful and is certainly more plausible than formal political division. Again, in Oregon we have adopted rules that sometimes vary between the more urban counties and the more rural ones, most prominently and directly important to my work being the geographically varying minimum wages.
For the record, I am not a fan of the idea of geographically varying minimum wages within the state, because I think in the long run it will put the eastern and southern counties further behind the northwestern counties economically and, as a secondary effect of that, increase the cultural gap between urban Oregon and rural Oregon. But it’s the result of a political compromise made many years ago that, despite its flaws, has been mostly good for the state. And I can’t do much about it anyway. Point is, this is something that an antecedent to, or if you prefer stopgap against, a national divorce might look like.Report
I don’t think devolution is plausible when dealing with cultural and social questions regarding the shape of society. Many Republicans clearly do want to impose their vision on a national level and I don’t think many Democratic voters are going to be fine with saying abortion is here but not there or that the trans-gendered are safe in New York City but not in rural upstate New York.Report
For fun, I’d like to see our resident data/map people make some maps that take the total population (330M) and divide it into 50 exactly equal states (6.6M each).
Sure, NYC becomes a City-State… but CA/TX are fragmented into several states; the upper Mid-West is consolidated, but so too the North East. Would be curious to see how a ‘regional-reapportionment’ would look. Only 17 states have 6.6M residents or more… Like, Indiana(!) is the median 6.6M resident state.
Not that it’s a viable ‘strategy’ so to say, just that as a thought experiment on various notions of political devolution, reapportionment and realignment might look.Report
I’ve seen this floating around the interwebs before:
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/11sgbb8/the_us_map_redrawn_as_50_states_with_equal/Report
Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. Would pay good money to have my state called Ogallala.
Nearly impossible to game out how all of this would translate into a New National politics… but fun to try.Report
I remember when this one first came out, looking at Ogallala, and thinking, “Same old, same old.” The quite large majority of the population would live in what is now the Colorado Front Range urban corridor, tucked down in one corner, with a vast empty space where the minority live and hate us.Report
Sure, I think it has biggest impact near the Mega-Metros. I mean, the Dutchy of Rockford with Chicago shorn from it’s rolls? Peoria/Springfield re-oriented to St. Louis (and let’s be honest they were already Cardinal fans)?
NH absorbed in Mainesechuessets? Vermont, hardest hit.Report
How amusing to see Minnesota comes out almost unscathed. They’d barely have to change the name.Report
Hard to tell exactly, but I think you pick-up Eau Claire and La Cross… and Fargo. So yeah, unscathed.Report
We could just rename it “Chonk-Minnesota”!Report
Dude, Minnechonka was right there!
First act is moving the Governor’s Palace to an island in the eponymous newly renamed Lake Minnechonka.Report
Brilliant, I have no idea how I missed that! I, myself, frequently purify myself in the waters of Lake Minnetonka. There is an island there that hosted an amusement part in the 1920’s, it could easily host the state capital grounds.Report
This one that slices things by longitude is always interesting.Report
And this is why Data Scientists aren’t put in charge of anything.Report
The interesting thing to me about the maps InMD and Michael Cain highlight is how big the western states have to be geographically to have equal population. Gives some credence to the outsized influence argument regarding the Senate (and possibly Electoral college).Report
Starting with the 2010 census we got access to density based on “built area” rather than county area. Some of the results run against conventional wisdom. Of the top level four regions used by the Census Bureau, the West and the Northeast are about equally non-rural (population, remember), equally dense (built area), and both are much denser than the Midwest and the South. Western suburbs are about twice as dense as those in the other regions.
The West has been much more urban than its reputation for a long time. Today, it’s very much seven or eight (relatively) huge metro areas and a whole lot of empty.Report
Sure… but the NE sees reapportionment and when you look at the map that InMD linked, there would be all sorts of interesting new regional developments.
But really, the only real point I’d make is that if you change the parameters of the game, you get a different game… not that I think this would be better for Team Blue or Team Red.Report
An attempt to redraw state lines would be one of the few things that could trigger a national divorce.Report
Yeah, that’s why I avoid Constitutional type requirements and stick to purely procedural things, like Proportional Voting systems.
But one can dream of a future Ogallala.Report
You’d have NE re-apportionment but also a break up of the west coast. As I see it the South as traditionally understood would get a good bit smaller from all directions and also maybe become a bit more midwestern in character.Report
Yeah, the south just gets plain ole scrambled.
It looks like Mobile and New Orleans would be in the same state? Oh dear, that’s gonna cause some problems.Report
Detroit will keep getting bigger as Detroit gets smaller.Report
Every 10-years we COMPLETELY REDO THE MAP.
Problem solved.Report
Also, we need a rotatable NH and VT or I’m walking.Report
VT has to answer to Buffalo and the ass-end of the Rust Belt… it’s suffered enough.Report
I’m still kinda struck by how the newest county in the US was established in 2001.
Even the states are stuck.Report
So few paths, so many dependencies.Report
Perhaps related… At one time I was interested in cluster analysis and tried to apply that against migration data — that is, moves between states. I had just read The Big Sort and thought migration might be a surrogate for some sort of cultural measure. One of the pieces of cluster analysis that is often sort of a black art is deciding how many clusters to use. Seven turned out to be reasonable. This is a seven-region clustering of the 48 contiguous states based on migration.
No considerations for relative population. Indeed, one of the problems that had to be solved was defining a migration measure that wasn’t overwhelmed by the sheer size of big state populations. Some of the things that look odd were driven by border cities. Eg, New Mexico was lumped with Texas rather than the other western states because of El Paso. I didn’t get nearly as far as I had hoped. Maybe I’ll get back to it someday.Report
Our new Regional States of America with capitals in:
Manchester, NH
Winchester, VA (Ok, Harper’s Ferry for its Military defensibility)
Atlanta, GA
South Bend, IN
Texarkana, TX/A…whatever goes here for Arkansas.
Salt Lake City, UTReport
The Mormons would probably decline. The region would have a population of about 75M. All those new government, staff, and lobbying people moving in? Most of them probably liberal-ish, since the majority of the population lives in California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado. And Nevada and Arizona are shifting that way.Report
It does raise an interesting question though. If the 50-equals map were drawn a little differently, it’d have a region that would almost have to be named Deseret. Do we take majority-minority populations into account? Do we draw lines based on culture?Report
Sweet, sweet music you’re singing to Will Truman’s ears. Others have already linked to the sorta-famous Freeman Equal Population Map but I will too.
Freeman picked names that made sense to him. The residents of Portland/Salem/Eugene and probably a good hunk of what is today southern Oregon would much prefer to be called “Cascadians” than “Shastans,” because “Shasta” is a thing found in California. We might be willing to accept “Klamath” since we’re aware we’re not the only claimants to the name “Cascadia.” (Suck it, Seattle.)
I also suspect that people who live in the city of San Diego do not want to be part of a state of “Orange,” unless they’re Aggressively Dutch.Report
But Greater Portlandia is right there to be used…Report
Did you see that Crowder is getting divorced? He’s seriously come out and complained that Texas is a one-party divorce state. Like, she can just get up and file for divorce and that’s that.Report
I didn’t even know he and Ava were married.Report
Worse than Ava. Candace Owens. A veritable Black Hitler in her own right.Report
He feuding with Owens, but isn’t actually married to her.Report
Oh, only Hilary Korzon.
Yeah, she can be an Eva.Report
He looks to be having a breakdown. Splitting with The Blaze, the feud with Daily Wire, bad exchanges with former staff, all after a major health scare. A self-made media star who probably doesn’t have anyone around him to tell him “no”.Report
I think this whole thing is an accident. Lauren Chen had a video a few days ago about Steven Crowder’s feud with former guest Dave Landau called “Louder with Crowder’s Ugly Divorce”. I don’t know if she knew that he was literally going through an ugly divorce, but after that went up, Crowder opened up about his actual divorce.Report