Analyzing The 2023 Oscars’ Best Picture Race
If you’ve read my previous articles here at Ordinary-Times, you already know by now how unpredictable I found this year’s Best Picture race to have played out. Where as I pegged more than half of 2022’s slate of contenders from the Spring of the year prior, this year’s slate only has 1 film that I had predicted getting nominated last Spring. However I did have another 7 of the 10 in my initial big board of potential contenders; which goes to show you that the jostling for positioning in this battle for the top Oscars’ prize starts almost as soon as the previous ceremony ends (In fact you can already start gaming out the 2024 race with enough research).
But nonetheless I am personally very happy with the overall slate of contenders we got with 8 of them cracking my top 25 of the year, 7 being inside my top 12, and half of them being in my personal slate of 10 for the year. The lineup is easily the most mainstream friendly one I’ve seen for the Oscars in a long time, with a mixture of box office behemoths, mid-budget hits, and small independent critical darlings. This will be the first time in forty years that the race will include the top two worldwide grossers, and half of the nominees are directed by Directors who have never seen a film of theirs get this far into the awards season. This is one year I don’t empathize with anyone who says they’ve never seen any of these movies.
The phase of critics’ groups having their say is over. Over fifty of them have chimed in from all parts of the country and all types of mediums of media – including the Critic’s Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. The only critics left to give out their awards is the young and rapidly growing Hollywood Critics Association (HCA), which has their ceremony much closer to the Oscars than all the other critics’ bodies do. Most critics have moved on to focusing on Sundance film festival coverage and the new year in film.
We are now in the industry phase where for the next few weeks the guilds will be chiming in, and given the crossover they have with actual Academy voters, you can almost see this as the playoffs phase that will determine who and what is favored come Oscars night. This is where the eventual winner of the Best Picture prize starts to make its move. Last season it seemed like it was The Power Of The Dog‘s to lose with Belfast being the next likely winner that couldn’t seem to get any major victories, and then CODA suddenly had a rocket ride as it won SAG and HCA all in the same weekend, over-performed at BAFTA, and then got a big win at PGA. This year we could see something like that or we could see one of the top-tier contenders pull away late. We could also get a perfect and chaotic storm of results with different winners in every major awards body from here on out, making us go into Oscar night with no clue as to who the clear favorite is.
Last year saw a winner that busted 90 years worth of some stats – but one outlier doesn’t make a pattern, and it still proved certain historical trends right as it overcame others. So looking at what places or categories a film wants to hit, we can see who has the best chance or who should probably just be happy to be nominated. Keep these 16 key trends that I have included in the table below in mind as you read later on over the data I’ve provided for each contender. The more a movie misses having one of these trends on its side, the bigger the the hill to climb to win the big prize.
As you can see from the table I’ve provided, the trick to being in position to win Best Picture is to hit as many, if not all, of these markers. Some have stronger historical trends than others, but clearly a movie that shows up everywhere has the best shot to go all the way. Though as you can see at the bottom of the table, the one negative trend is for the nominations leader since the ballot was extended from 5 to 10. I should note that while CODA overcame a lot of stats last year, it still hit 10 out of the 16 trends I’ve presented here, and among all the trends it made, past Best Picture winners hit 60% of them. Which goes to show you that even the biggest underdog or late-surger needs to show up most places. Below you’ll find I’ve included as much statistical information as possible for every contender so that you the reader can best be ready to get a grip on what the race looks like and who is positioned to perhaps go all the way.
Nominated Film: All Quiet On The Western Front (Dir. Edward Berger; Netflix)
Also Nominated For: Adapted Screenplay; International Feature; Original Score; Sound; Cinematography; Visual Effects; Production Design; Makeup & Hair
What’s It About?: A German re-make of the anti-World War I novel; its 1930 American film adaptation having won Best Picture then.
Where To Find: Netflix
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE And BAFTA
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Lot Of Precursors; Only Nominated In One Other Above The Line Category; Hasn’t Won Picture Anywhere Yet
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Must Win Picture, Director, Screenplay, International Film At BAFTA; International Film Upset Win At HCA
Worldwide Box Office: Unknown At The Moment
IMDB Score: 7.8
Letterboxd Score: 4.0
Metacritic Score: 76 Among Critics; 80 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 92% Among Critics; 90% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 5 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 28%
Nominated Film: Avatar: The Way Of Water (Dir. James Cameron; 20th Century Studios/Walt Disney Studios)
Also Nominated For: Sound; Visual Effects; Production Design
What’s It About?: Follow-up to the 2009 sci-fi blockbuster hit that almost won Best Picture, following the Sully family as they leave their home with danger closing in behind them.
Where To Find: Your Local Theatre For Now
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For Critic’s Choice, Golden Globes, HCA, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR
Negative Awards Trends: Missed Some Key Precursors; Not Nominated In Any Other Above The Line Category; Underperforming Predecessor Which Almost Won; Hasn’t Won Picture Anywhere Yet
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Pulling Off Massive Upset Picture Win At HCA; Must Win PGA
Worldwide Box Office: Over 2 Billion
IMDB Score: 7.8
Letterboxd Score: 3.8
Metacritic Score: 67 Among Critics; 73 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 76% Among Critics; 92% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 8 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 49%
Nominated Film: The Banshees Of Inisherin (Dir. Martin McDonagh; Searchlight Pictures/Walt Disney Studios)
Also Nominated For: Director; Actor; Supporting Actor (2x); Supporting Actress; Original Screenplay; Original Score; Editing
What’s It About?: In twenties Ireland, a man abruptly ends his friendship with another, causing a domino of darkly comedic events that affects their entire community.
Where To Find: HBO Max
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, DGA, Golden Globes (Won Comedy/Musical), HCA, SAG Ensemble, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR; Won With 10 Critics’ Bodies; Nominated In Multiple Above The Line Categories
Negative Awards Trends: Lost At Critic’s Choice To Top-Tier Rival; Didn’t Win A Single Critic’s Choice Award
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Wins Upset At DGA; Wins Big At BAFTA As It Should; Must Win One Or Both Of PGA And SAG Ensemble
Worldwide Box Office: 33 Million
IMDB Score: 7.8
Letterboxd Score: 4.1
Metacritic Score: 87 Among Critics; 74 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 97% Among Critics; 75% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 15 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 84%
Nominated Film: Elvis (Dir. Baz Luhrman; Warner Brothers)
Also Nominated For: Actor; Sound; Editing; Cinematography; Production Design; Costume Design; Makeup & Hair
What’s It About?: A fast-paced, musical jukebox look at the life of Elvis Presley through the perspective of his controversial manager.
Where To Find: HBO Max
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, Golden Globes, HCA, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Few Precursors; Only Nominated In One Other Above The Line Category; Hasn’t Won Picture Anywhere Yet
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Pulls Off Massive Upset Picture Wins At BAFTA And HCA; Must Win PGA; Butler Starts Sweeping Actor
Worldwide Box Office: 287 Million
IMDB Score: 7.4
Letterboxd Score: 3.5
Metacritic Score: 64 Among Critics; 76 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 77% Among Critics; 94% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 11 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 66%
Nominated Film: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Dir. The Daniels; A24/Lionsgate)
Also Nominated For: Director; Actress; Supporting Actor; Supporting Actress (2x); Original Screenplay; Original Song; Original Score; Editing; Costume Design
What’s It About?: A Chinese immigrant must keep her family together by tapping into different multiverse versions of herself – all while getting audited by the IRS.
Where To Find: Paramount+
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, BAFTA, Critic’s Choice (Won), DGA, Golden Globes, HCA, SAG Ensemble, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR; Won With 32 Critics’ Bodies; Nominated In Multiple Above The Line Categories
Negative Awards Trends: Lost At Golden Globes To Top-Tier Rival; Has To Overcome Nominations’ Leader Curse Of The Preferential Ballot Era
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Wins At DGA; Holds Its Own At BAFTA; Wins HCA As It Should; Must Win One Or Both Of PGA And SAG Ensemble; Wins WGA Original Prize
Worldwide Box Office: 106 Million
IMDB Score: 8.0
Letterboxd Score: 4.4
Metacritic Score: 81 Among Critics; 78 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 95% Among Critics; 88% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 15 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 88%
Nominated Film: The Fabelmans (Dir. Steven Spielberg; Universal Pictures/Amblin Entertainment)
Also Nominated For: Director; Actress; Supporting Actor; Original Screenplay; Original Score; Production Design
What’s It About?: An auto-fictional look at the life of Steven Spielberg growing up as he becomes a filmmaker and deals with his parents’ marriage coming apart.
Where To Find: VOD Platforms For Now
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For Critic’s Choice, DGA, Golden Globes (Won Drama), HCA, SAG Ensemble, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR; Won Toronto Film Festival’s Audience Award; Nominated In Multiple Above The Line Categories
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Few Precursors; Lost At Critic’s Choice To Top-Tier Rival; No Above The Line Win At Critic’s Choice
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Must Win At DGA; Pulls Off Massive Picture Upset At HCA; Must Win One Or Both Of PGA And SAG Ensemble; Wins WGA Original Prize
Worldwide Box Office: 25 Million
IMDB Score: 7.7
Letterboxd Score: 4.1
Metacritic Score: 84 Among Critics; 73 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 92% Among Critics; 82% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 13 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 75%
Nominated Film: TAR (Dir. Todd Field; Focus Features/Universal Pictures)
Also Nominated For: Director; Actress; Original Screenplay; Editing; Cinematography
What’s It About?: The fall of fictional composer Lydia Tar, as her past sins catch up to her.
Where To Find: Peacock
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, DGA, Golden Globes, HCA, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI; Won With 4 Critics’ Bodies; Nominated In Multiple Above The Line Categories
Negative Awards Trends: Hasn’t Hit Every Single Precursor; Has Only Shown Great Strength With Actress Category; Lost At Golden Globes To Top-Tier Rival
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Wins Upset At DGA; Pulls Off Huge Upset Picture Wins At BAFTA And HCA; Must Win PGA; Wins WGA Original Prize; Blanchett Starts Sweeping Actress
Worldwide Box Office: 10 Million
IMDB Score: 7.6
Letterboxd Score: 4.0
Metacritic Score: 92 Among Critics; 76 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 91% Among Critics; 73% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 14 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 82%
Nominated Film: Top Gun: Maverick (Dir. Joseph Kosinski; Paramount Pictures/Skydance)
Also Nominated For: Adapted Screenplay; Original Song; Sound; Editing; Visual Effects
What’s It About?: The follow-up to the 1986 classic, with Maverick now preparing a group of pilots for a dangerous mission, one of them being his late best friend’s son.
Where To Find: Paramount+
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, Critic’s Choice, DGA, Golden Globes, HCA, PGA; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR; Won With 2 Critics’ Bodies
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Few Precursors; Only Nominated In One Other Above The Line Category; Lost At Golden Globes To Top-Tier Rival
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Wins Upset At DGA; Pulls Off Huge Upset Picture Win At HCA; Must Win PGA; Wins WGA Adapted Prize
Worldwide Box Office: Just Under 1.5 Billion
IMDB Score: 8.3
Letterboxd Score: 4.1
Metacritic Score: 78 Among Critics; 74 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 96% Among Critics; 99% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 12 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 70%
Nominated Film: Triangle Of Sadness (Dir. Ruben Ostlund; NEON/Lionsgate UK)
Also Nominated For: Director; Original Screenplay
What’s It About?: An “eat the rich” satire that explores social media society, class, authority roles, and capitalism versus socialism trough the story of a cruise sailing gone awry.
Where To Find: VOD Platforms For Now
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For ACE, Golden Globes; Nominated In Multiple Above The Line Categories; Won Cannes’ Film Festival’s Top Prize
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Lot Of Precursors
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Must Sweep Supporting Actress, Screenplay, And Casting At BAFTA
Worldwide Box Office: 23 Million
IMDB Score: 7.5
Letterboxd Score: 3.8
Metacritic Score: 63 Among Critics; 69 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 72% Among Critics; 72% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 5 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 33%
Nominated Film: Women Talking (Dir. Sarah Polley; United Artists/Orion Pictures)
Also Nominated For: Adapted Screenplay
What’s It About?: Women from a religious colony must vote whether to forgive the men who were caught drugging and raping them while they slept, or leave their community.
Where To Find: Your Local Theatre For Now
Positive Awards Trends: Nominated For Critic’s Choice, HCA, SAG Ensemble; Named Among Best Films By AFI And NBR
Negative Awards Trends: Missed A Lot Of Precursors; Only Nominated In One Other Above The Line Category; Hasn’t Won Picture Anywhere Yet
Winning Trends To Keep An Eye On In The Coming Weeks: Pulls Off Massive Upset Picture Win At HCA; Must Win SAG Ensemble; Must Win WGA Adapted Prize
Worldwide Box Office: 3 Million
IMDB Score: 7.5
Letterboxd Score: 3.9
Metacritic Score: 78 Among Critics; 61 Among Users
Rotten Tomatoes’ Scores: 90% Among Critics; 81% Among Verified Audiences
How Many Trends From The Table It Hit: 8 out of 16
Overall % Of Past Picture Wins From The Trends It Matches Up With: 48%
Now that we’ve gathered all that information lets look at the contenders ranked by how much percentage of times a movie won Best Picture hitting all the 16 trends they’ve hit from the table I came up with up above.
– Ranking Of Overall % Of Picture Wins From The Trends A Contender Matches Up With
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once (88%)
02. The Banshees Of Inisherin (84%)
03. TAR (82%)
04. The Fabelmans (75%)
05. Top Gun: Maverick (70%)
06. Elvis (66%)
– Last Year’s Winner, CODA, would’ve placed here (60%)
07. Avatar: The Way Of Water (49%)
08. Women Talking (48%)
09. Triangle Of Sadness (33%)
10. All Quiet On The Western Front (28%)
As you can see, 6 contenders have hit more trends that past winners have hit than last year’s winner; but keep in mind that last year’s winner broke a lot of rules and it still had hit a majority-plus of trends that past winners also hit. Again I have my doubts we see that kind of winner again so soon, so I’d keep an eye on the top 3 at the very least if not the top 5 if you expect a competitive enough dark horse to pull it off.
Keep in mind this is all based on what we know BEFORE the guilds start awarding prizes. Those also have their own trends that could change up the percentages here for the contenders. For instance, that 60% for CODA starts climbing once you factor in that it won the all-powerful SAG, PGA, and WGA Adapted combo. So yes we could pretty much figure out who’s going to win this based on what happens over the next few weeks. We could see Spielberg win DGA for The Fabelmans, The Banshees Of Inisherin win BAFTA, Top Gun: Maverick win PGA, and Everything Everywhere All At Once win HCA and SAG. That would really cause chaos for predictions. We could also see a clean sweep by one of the top-tier contenders from here on out. Only time will tell. All I know is that I’d rather be the two out of the box comedies sitting atop the ladder more than anyone else as we start the final leg of the race.
