On Believing Republican Politicians

Philip H

Philip H is an oceanographer who makes his way in the world trying to use more autonomy to sample and thus understand the world's ocean. He's a proud federal scientist, husband, father, woodworker and modelrailroader. The son of a historian and public-school teacher and the nephew and grandson of preachers, he believes one of his greatest marks on the world will be the words he leaves behind. To that end he writes here at OT and blogs very occasionally at District of Columbia Dispatches. Philip's views are definitely his own, and in no way reflect the official or unofficial position of any agency he works for now or has worked for in his career. If you disagree, take it up with him, not Congress.

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98 Responses

  1. Saul Degraw says:

    During the 2012 election, there was a famous story about the Obama campaign showing a test group an ad that quoted Paul Ryan’s writing and plans verbatim. No one believed it. They thought it was all hyperbole and no one was that cruel. Yet here we are with Rick Scott’s manifesto which is Ryan squared.

    Abortion was always the classic example of the the savvy cult thinking the GOP elite was playing for the rubes. It turns out not so much. The savvy is in denial.

    One of the very weird things about American punditry and political writing is that it assumes political ideology does not exist. Very two to four years, the American people become an empty vessel and the parties then compete grandly to fill them with ideas. I find this very silly but it persists.

    I think a lot of people just do not want to contemplate that Trumpism and Desantism is now the face of the GOP and it will not change for a long time. I think a lot of people do not want to think about the fact that possibly hundreds of millions of Americans view herrenvolk Democracy and white supremacy as material interests. Combating this view requires constant effort and that is depressing

    https://www.thebulwark.com/will-hurds-dangerous-wishcasting/

    This essay on Will Hurd’s campaign sums it up well.Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      and no one was that cruel

      Let me guess, Health Care? Any HC plan that admits we have limits to resources and people die is politically poisonous.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Dark Matter says:

        Except the resources to provide sufficient treatment – and sufficient preventive care – are there. They are in the control of profit motivated entities for whom rationing is a necessary business model component because that’s a way to control costs.Report

        • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

          Except the resources to provide sufficient treatment – and sufficient preventive care – are there.

          The word “sufficient” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. What is your definition here? If it’s a stand in for “unlimited” then I disagree.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Dark Matter says:

            “No Possible Way To Provide Universal Healthcare, Says Only Nation Not Providing Universal Healthcare”Report

            • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              So you don’t think countries that have UHC don’t ration? That they don’t have various other problems? Or (more laughably yet) we don’t already have serious gov management of HC?Report

              • Oscar Gordon in reply to Dark Matter says:

                It’s really just a question of who is controlling the rationing.

                Is it a massive insurance company who doesn’t really consider you the customer because your employer pays the premiums?

                Or is it a massive federal bureaucracy who doesn’t really consider you a customer because they answer to elected officials and political appointees?

                Pick your poison.Report

              • JS in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                >Pick your poison.

                The latter (government) seems to cost half as much per capita (tops), covers everyone, and seems to lead to overall better outcomes.

                So…it’s more like “pick your poison or take your medicine”.

                I mean we can’t really pretend there aren’t dozens of first world countries providing universal care through at least a half dozen methods.

                From privatized but highly regulated and subsidized to mixed systems to full nationalization.

                There isn’t a one I wouldn’t take over my current, excellent for American health care, coverage in a heartbeat.

                (As for waiting lists — I do always like to bring up my dad, who had a vertebral bone spur go undiagnosed for 18 months because his insurance refused to pay for an MRI. he fought a full year, with two companies, to finally get one — which showed the spur his doctor was certain was there. In the interim, he suffered permanent nerve damage. All to save about 1400 for the MRI and 5k for the surgery.)Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                It’s really just a question of who is controlling the rationing.

                In theory this is the sort of complex situation that markets are good at resolving.

                The problem is what we have now isn’t a market, more like regulatory capture.

                Our biggest problem is we have massive amounts of overhead via huge bureaucracies that only exist to fight each other.

                So, is adding one more bureaucracy likely to fix that? Does the gov have the political will to destroy multiple GDP percentage points of good paying jobs?

                From where we are now, we need more market and less command/control.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Dark Matter says:

                The US healthcare system combines the efficiency of socialism with the fairness of capitalism.Report

              • pillsy in reply to pillsy says:

                That said, I don’t know of any First World healthcare system where the prices are set by the market. You need a system that is heavily regulated for basic quality control.

                Once you have that, you have a lot of options, and there are tradeoffs between them, as you would expect. You aren’t going to have the resources to give everybody everything, but you don’t need to give everybody everything to have a system that gives outcomes that satisfy people and don’t leave anyone impoverished.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to pillsy says:

                That’s starting from scratch. The basic improvement our system needs is to fire millions of people who have good jobs.

                We NEED to “impoverish people”. We NEED to make millions of people deeply upset and have them scream that people are going to die because of the reduction in quality that eliminating their job creates.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to pillsy says:

                I don’t know of any First World healthcare system where the prices are set by the market. You need a system that is heavily regulated for basic quality control.

                The US for Lasic and Plastic surgery.

                The big ugly mess that is the rest of the system is because of our efforts to fight inequality. Where we don’t do that, we get a market that is very cheap and very high quality.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Dark Matter says:

                And yet still unaffordable for most Americans.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

                “Unaffordable”?

                Breast implants are $2,699 (top ad from google). Lasik is $2.2k average per eye (ditto).

                If that’s “unaffordable” it’s because everyone thinks health care is a right and not a product.

                If we handled this in the rest of the system then those costs would increase by about 5x. The market thus supplies roughly 5x as much HC at the same price.

                Counter intuitively, this fight against inequality leaves everyone poorer and sicker. It’s exactly the same problem as we have with Free Trade.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Dark Matter says:

                Pretty much every other First World healthcare system has better health outcomes that cost less and are less unequal.

                The preoccupation with inequality is extremely not the problem with our systemReport

              • Philip H in reply to Dark Matter says:

                The national median family income for the United States for FY 2021 is $79,900. The median rent is $1,104, which is $13,248 per year or 16.6% of that income. A family of four spends another $10,564 per year (pre 2022) on food. Then there’s transportation – $1837 per year per car on gas (again prior to 2022). Add in another $1,655 for car insurance; $2060 in utilities; $1,048.09 for internet (if you have access) – and nearly half your income is spent ($30,412.09). In Mississippi that family would pay a total of $20,018 in state and federal income and payroll taxes, leaving them $29,469.91 in disposable income. That family is already paying $13,824 per year in health insurance premiums. And so without any out of pocket expenses for healthcare, saving for retirement, paying down debt, paying for the kids activities, seeing a movie, or mowing the lawn, that family is left with $15,645 per year. Or $1,303.83 per month.

                Both your examples would require that family to sacrifice two months available funds for those procedures. That’s not affordable, nor is it sustainable. And those are elective procedures, not something like cancer treatments (Chemo costs between $1,000 and $12,000 per month).Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

                Both your examples would require that family to sacrifice two months available funds for those procedures.

                Yes. For a one-off lifetime event.

                This is the definition of affordable. You post pone a family trip.

                Further “average” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your evaluation. Families go through life cycles where money is more or less available. Children are born, funded, and leave.

                The very normal women I’ve known who have gotten implants have been poorer than your “average” but have not had kids so their expenses have been lower still.

                As with all things of this nature, it’s a priority choice. But even in your evaluation it’s in “available funds” territory and not “cutting back on must haves” territory.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Dark Matter says:

                Yeah there are a couple things that set those kind of care apart, but a major one is that they’re elective.

                You can choose when to have them, shop around for alternatives, and in cases where they aren’t covered by insurance you can almost certainly carry on your life without them.

                That doesn’t apply to a lot of care, and avoiding inequality has almost nothing to do with it.

                There are a lot of situations where you end up in a “pay or die/be crippled” situation, without an ability to even know how much it will cost before signing on the dotted line.

                One fun thing to do in an emergency room while you wait to find out whether the agonizing injury you’re suffering from is one you’ll ever going to recover from is try to estimate how much you’ll be billed for it.

                I got within 20% once!

                And it’s not like I have years of experience working as a health economist.

                No, wait, it’s exactly like that.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to pillsy says:

                The majority of HC isn’t done in Emergency Rooms.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Dark Matter says:

                The majority of HC isn’t done in Emergency Rooms.

                Oh Really?

                Nearly half of all US medical care is delivered by emergency departments, according to a new study. In recent years, the percentage of care delivered by emergency departments has grown.

                https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171017091849.htmReport

              • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

                Politic fact thought the upper estimate for percentage spent in the ER was 10%

                https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2013/oct/28/nick-gillespie/does-emergency-care-account-just-2-percent-all-hea/

                This would be why reform plans that pay for themselves by reducing ER expenditures fall apart, there isn’t enough to move the needle there.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Dark Matter says:

                The majority of spending isn’t on ER care, but that’s not quite what you originally claimed.

                It’s almost surely what you meant, since that’s more relevant to the question of costs than overall volume of care.

                Nonetheless, a lot of the questions that apply to ER care also apply to non-emergent care, especially when that care isn’t emergent but also isn’t really optional.

                After my sojourn in the ER, I thought I’d need surgery, and it spent me quite a bit of time talking to doctors, insurance companies, and HR people trying to figure out what my out-of-pocket cost would be, and I got a range of $1000 to $9000. Kinda hard to plan around.

                Also answering questions like that is the sort of thing I do in my current day job, and getting the answer would probably cost close to the high end of the range once you add licensing a proprietary data set to the labor costs.

                Seriously, this stuff sucks donkey dick and every other system does the same thing to avoid blowing ass.Report

              • Oscar Gordon in reply to pillsy says:

                Dark Matter isn’t wrong that moving towards some more efficient version of UHC will involve gutting thousands of jobs, perhaps tens of thousands.

                That’s a nasty political black eye everyone is going to try to avoid.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                oh yeah that part is absolutely trueReport

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                “We need to keep thousands of people working in Soviet tractor factories insurance offices performing work that has absolutely no value but merely extracts wealth from sick people” isn’t a ringing defense of the status quo.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                It’s an issue but I think the concern is overblown. We’re never going to flip the switch off overnight for private insurance companies. The more plausible path is slowly turning their core function into quasi-public utilities with a for profit side for add-on and luxury products. There’s certainly a slow bleed of jobs in that process but there are plenty of industries and types of work that people are way more sympathetic towards where that has happened without some major blow up.Report

              • JS in reply to InMD says:

                It is overblown. Especially if we move to a tightly regulated private market — the number of front office staff at clinics and doctor’s office needed to process insurance would drop drastically, and I’d imagine quite a bit of consolidation would happen in the insurance companies themselves, but in the end you STILL need to handle payment and processing and auditing of claims.

                There’s about a million people directly employed by life and health insurance companies in America. Say it’s 80/20 in favor of healthcare, you’re talking 800,000 Americans. Even if you reduce their jobs by half, that’s only 400,000 workers.

                In a white collar job with transferrable skills. In a broad job category that heavily fits remote work, even.

                In terms of job dislocation, that’s really small potatoes. A relatively trivial sum could give them a year of full pay to retrain and find another job.

                And given the potential savings — next most expensive per-capita setup is, IIRC, the UK’s. We’re twice as expensive, so if we only reduced our spending by 25% through switching (leaving us paying 150% per capita more than the next most expensive system), we could frankly simply pay those 400,000 people their salaries for LIFE and come out ahead by a sizeable margin.

                And everyone would actually have coverage, not like 80 to 90% of us.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to JS says:

                Even if you reduce their jobs by half, that’s only 400,000 workers.
                And of course we have their opposing numbers who work for HC and whatever else (the gov?).

                Then you should think of them as 400k (times however many opposing bureaucracies) engineers. Those people have managers, support staff, etc.

                We’re trying to move from paying what we pay as a percentage of the GDP to something more like what some other first world nation pays. And that’s going to be multiple points of the GDP worth in jobs, which means millions.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                Yes, that. Great example.

                However the USSR’s solution to this wasn’t to slather on yet another layer of bureaucrats.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

                will involve gutting thousands of jobs, perhaps tens of thousands.

                We should be so lucky. We’re into the “millions” of jobs.

                We have 150 million employed people in the US, we’re talking about eliminating something like 3% of the GDP.

                Call it 4-5 million jobs.

                That’s a lazy way of figuring this but other ways come up with something like that.

                We have 1 million people who are working for insurance companies in the HC field, that’s only one set because there are multiple groups that only exist to fight with them.Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Dark Matter says:

                So you’re saying that the federal government can provide universal Healthcare and do it using a million fewer workers??Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

                I am saying the federal government doesn’t have the political will to destroy 4 million good jobs.

                We just had HC insurance reform, i.e. Obamacare.
                In order for it to become real it had to destroy zero jobs and double down on the parts of the system that make it expensive.Report

              • Dark Matter in reply to pillsy says:

                I got a range of $1000 to $9000. Kinda hard to plan around.

                This is more information than I got when I needed surgery. It was something that needed to be done but I had the time to fly to another state if it would be useful… and I couldn’t get any numbers.

                This is not a market, this is deep into central planning. Expecting more central planning to fix the problem is probably unrealistic.

                Compared to where we are, we need a lot more market and a lot fewer paper pushers.Report

              • pillsy in reply to Dark Matter says:

                It’s a ton of it, ER care tends to be very expensive, and it plays a disproportionate role in the amount of economic pain the US healthcare system inflicts on patients.Report

              • InMD in reply to pillsy says:

                I think the big distinction is really the heavily reactive, arbitraily piecemeal approach we take versus viewing it in any sort of proactive, full population kind of way. The reality is most people are going to go through their 20s and 30s without any sort of significant health event*, save women going through pregnancy and delivery, which of course we need to cover for reasons I would hope are obvious. It’s once we get into middle and later middle age that the cancers, and cardiac stuff, and similar expensive issues start to come into play, with the risk only getting worse as we age. There are different philosophies for how best to deal with that but what is critical and what we are missing is system wide coherence.

                *Of course we need to care for people with chronic issues from birth or childhood or who just had some really bad luck and ended up in the ER but there is plenty of data on the trends.Report

              • pillsy in reply to InMD says:

                This isn’t wrong. I just find it extremely striking given how much diversity there is an ex-US HC systems that this is the one thing they have in common, and they all do better than ours.

                Also, I’ve gotten some up close experience seeing how rates are set in the US and in other systems.

                In other countries, it’s invariably a flawed, bureaucratic process that deals with a bunch of practical and political concerns in an awkward and not terribly principled way to get barely passable results.

                In the US, it’s 1d6/1d20 SAN loss.Report

              • InMD in reply to pillsy says:

                To very awkwardly and imperfectly use your metaphor I think the die in all but the smallest, richest countries are weighted towards bad to meh outcomes, but there is a much wider range of meh than bad. Other countries only roll a few times and on balance get consistently better meh outcomes. Our system is designed to roll lots and lots of times so we get a lot more meh-er and downright bad outcomes.

                Not to mention Philip’s point below which is a whole lot of privatizing gains and socializing losses, and socializing them poorly at that.Report

              • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

                I think the big distinction is really the heavily reactive, arbitrarily piecemeal approach we take versus viewing it in any sort of proactive, full population kind of way.

                Agreed 100%. And our system in the US, such as it is, will never get to this because keeping people healthy through out their lives is just not as profitable.Report

  2. Saul Degraw says:

    FWIW, there was a poll I saw last week that stated the favorable ratings for the Democrats was 33 percent and for Republicans, it was a mere 34 percent. The disfavorable ratings were 47 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans.

    I suspect the reasons for this are very complex and it would be interesting to know what percentage of the disfavorable group will also be in team “I am going to vote for them anyway.”Report

  3. InMD says:

    On the one hand I think the moves on abortion are a situation where the GOP completely misreads the landscape. It wrongly interprets the conflicted moral feelings many have about the actual practice of intentionally ending a healthy pregnancy with a desire of citizens to go out of their way to attack their neighbors over the issue. But the GOP also isn’t that bright and is subject to the same kind of motivated misinterpretations of reality pushed by their craziest activists as any other party. My belief is this will eventually backfire on them in a very big way. If I’m them the last people I want to be seen as adversarial towards is the kind of moderate suburban women who are open to their much more salient attacks on (perceived) Democratic insanity in the public schools.

    However I’d be careful about conflating this with some of the issues involving trans identity and school children. I don’t think they’re connected in peoples minds the way the OP implies. I also think the politics of it are very different.Report

    • Brandon Berg in reply to InMD says:

      Suppose that we do as Philip says rather than as he does, and believe Republican politicians. Specifically about their claims to believe that abortion is murder. If I believed that abortion is murder, that would be, by far, the issue that I prioritized above all others. Hundreds of thousands of murders per year is a huge deal. I’d probably be willing to sacrifice my career in politics just to stop tens of thousands of murders per month for as long as it took the voters to throw me out.

      Or maybe they’re just pandering to what they think the voters want. I don’t know. My intuition is that state legislators are more likely to be true believers than federal legislators, and.Representatives more so than Senators. The higher-level the office, the stronger the selection pressure for political savvy. That’s my theory, anyway.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Brandon Berg says:

        I think at the state level there are some true believers. I also think there’s more savvy then they are given credit for. But they are not representing their voters by passing these laws:

        According to the poll, 39% of voters approved of how state leaders have handled abortion policy while 46% disapproved. Lawmakers this year passed the most restrictive abortion law in the nation, barring the procedure before many people know they are pregnant.

        https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/08/texas-voters-poll-abortion-electricity-property-taxes/Report

        • pillsy in reply to Philip H says:

          There’s this basic balancing act in politics where you’ve got to do stuff that’s unpopular with the entire voter population, but is very popular with the people who vote for you.

          Also my take is that very few anti-abortion activists think abortion is actually murder, but a substantial majority think that abortion is close to murder, and having public conversations about the difference would create cracks in their coalition that benefit none of its membersReport

      • InMD in reply to Brandon Berg says:

        I do think there are some true believers in the ranks. But I also think most state legislators that don’t quickly rise are at best D level politicians and probably in a lot of cases are where they are due to an ability to ride the local party apparatus to minimally contested wins in low interest races. Masters of understanding the limitations of activist driven polling on controversial national issues they are not. So basically consistent with your second paragraph.Report

      • DavidTC in reply to Brandon Berg says:

        I mean, it’s fun to keep going back to this, especially since we just had the four year anniversary: https://www.patheos.com/blogs/slacktivist/2020/03/09/the-silent-anniversary-that-proves-its-all-a-lie/

        The funny gag is that he never actually explains what the tragedy is, what actually happened in Cleveland on March 9, 2018, and how the 4000 babies died. And, as he said, it was reported so little you literally can’t even google it.

        In case anyone’s wondering, and finds this as completely ungoogleable he does: That was the day that a Cleveland fertility clinic had their freezers glitch, eventually resulting in 4000 eggs, including a good chuck of already fertilized eggs, having to be discarded. (And, ironically, on the same day a San Francisco had their freezers do the same, with somewhat less loss, around 500 or so. Thus MAGNIFYING THE TRAGEDY.)

        Weirdly, no one reacted like this was a horrific accident, and all those politicians who had all sorts of targetted laws to ‘protect women’s health’ aimed at abortion clinics didn’t seem to bother to aim any at fertility clinics and their buckets of death ‘babies’, who have been experiencing these sorts of glitches all the time, and at worse have to deal with a lawsuit or two.

        Although I do feel this gag sorta loses it’s shine as it’s clear at this point that the GOP doesn’t really care about mass death at all.Report

        • Mike Schilling in reply to DavidTC says:

          As I’ve said before, if human life begins at conception, by far the biggest loss of life has always come before birth. It dwarfs all diseases among already-born people, yet it’s never discussed and there are no charities or fund-raising to address it.Report

          • DavidTC in reply to Mike Schilling says:

            I mean, that sort of stuff was fun to talk about years ago, but they literally went masks off by…uh…going masks off.

            “Women should put up with pregnancy for nine months to save one life, but we can’t wear a mask to stop this disease from spreading.”Report

            • cam in reply to DavidTC says:

              That. I disagreed with so-called pro-life people on policy, but had some sympathy for them on sincerely feeling lives had to be protected (or at least for the ones willing to consider women to be human beings whose lives were also worth protecting). But after seeing so many of them go full “the life of your immune-compromised mother isn’t worth the inconvenience to me of wearing a mask” my reaction to anyone calling themselves pro-life now is basically “yeah, right, pull the other one – it’s got bells on”.

              Which, I admit, maybe isn’t fair, but the ‘pro-life’ folks actively sneering at the idea of harming people at risk from covid reached such a critical mass, so it’s become a gut reaction at this point.Report

              • Philip H in reply to cam says:

                You are not alone in reaching that conclusion. You will note, however, that there was ample evidence the “pro life” was all and only about forced birth well before COVID. Just look at all the social welfare programs they DIDN’t advocate for.Report

    • Oscar Gordon in reply to InMD says:

      I’m still waiting for a blue state to figure out a bounty game on gun owners, maybe a $10K bounty on people who don’t securely store a firearm.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        it would make the debate very interesting, to say the least.Report

        • SCOTUS would slap it down immediately and no one in the majority would address the inconsistency.

          That kind of thing just happened with “Of course the Christian guy can have his minister during his execution”, which they had three years ago denied to a Muslim. Not a word about why there’s a difference.

          (Clarence Thomas was at least consistent. He was a “no” both times.)Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        And the next finger on the monkey paw curls…

        Governor Newsom Takes Action to Hold the Gun Industry Accountable and Advance California’s Nation-Leading Protections

        Published: Feb 18, 2022

        A bill that will be introduced by Senator Hertzberg today will enable private citizens to hold the gun industry accountable through civil litigation, and AB 1594 would allow individuals and the Attorney General to sue firearm manufacturers and sellers

        AB 2571 would prohibit the marketing of certain categories of weapons to children

        AB 1621 would tighten ghost gun restrictions

        https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/02/18/governor-newsom-takes-action-to-hold-the-gun-industry-accountable-and-advance-californias-nation-leading-protections/Report

      • InMD in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        Yea me too and I’m hoping that obvious eventuality is what causes SCOTUS to shut down this bounty crap after they do whatever they’re going to do with Roe/Casey.Report

        • Chip Daniels in reply to InMD says:

          But this itself is startling, don’t you think?

          That the idea that “SCOTUS will strike it down because it is unconstitutional” is preposterous, so we stake our hope on “SCOTUS will strike it down because they see it can be used against them.”

          This accepts as normal the view that SCOTUS is not a neutral body upholding the Constitution, but a cynical body that thinks in craven partisan strategems.Report

          • pillsy in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            This accepts as normal the view that SCOTUS is not a neutral body upholding the Constitution, but a cynical body that thinks in craven partisan strategems.

            It’s better to believe your car gets its power from a heat engine instead of a perpetual motion machine.Report

          • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            I would not foresee the hypothetical decision as breaking down along party lines.Report

            • pillsy in reply to InMD says:

              No way Roberts goes for it. He’s already pissed about the Texas abortion bounty shit.Report

              • InMD in reply to pillsy says:

                If I was forced to put money on an outcome it would be on some muddled plurality opinion significantly limiting, maybe outright gutting Roe/Casey followed by several at least 6-3 or 7-2 type opinions stopping the bounty stuff and stopping the ability for a state to prosecute conduct solely occurring in other states. There are a number of avenues wholly unrelated to the issue of abortion I could see from everyone to the left of Gorsuch and quite possibly including him that gets that result.Report

          • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

            SCOTUS moves slowly and typically when lower courts have disagreed. I think they already have one abortion review on the plate.Report

      • DavidTC in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        I want a bounty on issuing Supreme Court decisions. Give the private right of action to sue anyone issuing court decisions under the authority of the Supreme Court.

        Let’s just immediately go straight to the top.

        Although a much easier solution, and one I am baffled hasn’t happened yet, is for someone to simply sue literally every Texas Republican for assisting in an abortion because they continue to votes to build roads.

        And then sue them for a different one.

        And a different one.

        What are they going to do about it?Report

        • cam in reply to DavidTC says:

          Heck, just sue them all under the claim they assisted a mistress or wife or sister or daughter. The Texas law is written forbidding the accused from suing back or asking for court costs if found innocent. Plus the accused has to appear in the district where the suit was filed and no-show means automatic loss. So, organize a whole group of people to file suits all over Texas.

          Seem harsh and unfair? There’s a reason women have been referring to this law as the ‘abusive ex enrichment act’. The guys who passed it richly deserve the same treatment they enabled.Report

    • Philip H in reply to InMD says:

      I see both as being related through a lens of a certain group deciding their version of “right” is correct and using the power of their state to enforce that morality on their constituents, economic, psychological and other costs be damned. And most perniciously they believe that their approach will keep them in political power in a fast changing world.Report

  4. DensityDuck says:

    “Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman”

    ah yes, the state representative from District 97 of Missouri, surely the world is set atremble at her pronunciations and armies march at her merest whim

    “The language of “states’ rights” being deployed again to enforce abortion bans or cram down conservative myths about transgendered youth run counter to establishing Justice, promoting the general Welfare and securing the blessings of Liberty”

    oh i see we’re back to Emanations From The Penumbra again, not like those icky gun-rights or free-speech things where conservatives can just go eat it because there’s no language specifically in the law about Individual Rights To Do Anything or Restrictions On Actions By Private EntitiesReport

    • Pinky in reply to DensityDuck says:

      Forget it, Duck, it’s Chinatown.Report

    • At least Braun was honest (briefly) about what “originalism” would do to Loving vs. Virginia.Report

    • Philip H in reply to DensityDuck says:

      oh i see we’re back to Emanations From The Penumbra again, not like those icky gun-rights or free-speech things where conservatives can just go eat it because there’s no language specifically in the law about Individual Rights To Do Anything or Restrictions On Actions By Private Entities

      A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

      What is a well regulated militia?
      It means the militia was in an effective shape to fight.” In other words, it didn’t mean the state was controlling the militia in a certain way, but rather that the militia was prepared to do its duty.

      There’s no individual or private right enumerated there skippy. Not one. Not even if you read it drunk and sideways. And I say that as a guy who owns and shoots. If we had compulsory military service like Switzerland or Israel you might be on to something. But otherwise, using the original language, its pretty clear (Antonin Scalia not withstanding).Report

      • Dark Matter in reply to Philip H says:

        So “the people” doesn’t mean individuals? If you apply that to the rest of the Bill of Rights it’s pretty ugly.

        Further “militia” refers to “all able-bodied civilians…” so “military service” is nuts because by definition we’re talking about civilians.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Philip H says:

        There’s no individual or private right enumerated there skippy

        There are people who see “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms” as an enumerated right.

        I do not think that saying “that’s not an enumerated right” will be a successful argumentative tactic.

        I mean, hey. Maybe. We’ll see, I guess.

        But I didn’t see a successful tactic in that sentence. Not one.Report

  5. Chip Daniels says:

    A saying I read, from someone who lived through that era:
    “Stalin told lies and everyone believed him. Hitler told the truth, and no one believed him!”

    Further to the point, I think most of our major media figures and pundits really don’t grasp or want to grasp the radicalism and hostility to democracy that the GOP voting base has.

    Future historians will no doubt have a lot to say about it, but it seems paradoxical: Why woulda free people consistently vote for figures who specifically promise tp strip away their freedom?Report

    • Philip H in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      Because they believe their racial and economic identities will prevent them from being harmed. That so many alleged libertarians sit on that side of the political aisle is incredibly telling in this regard.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Philip H says:

        Looking back, I should have paid more attention to all those stories about HOAs and how frequently they devolved into petty vicious tyrannies, or how apps like Nextdoor spiral down into rage-filled sewers of racism and misogyny.

        That these were symptoms of a diseased citizenry. The way modern historians trace the fall of the Roman Republic by the increasingly cynical voting public where corruption and vengeance were celebrated as virtues.Report

        • pillsy in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          I don’t know how much of this is people behaving worse than they did in the past, and how much of this is that we see it all because we’ve built a privatized panopticon out of smartphones and ML algorithms.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to pillsy says:

            An alternative point of view might be that, by a reading of American history and literature, that the citizenry has always been petty vicious and small minded, ready to lynch or pillory some outgroup or another and that liberal democracy has only ever existed for a privileged few.Report

            • pillsy in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              That’s my point of view, except I don’t think that’s limited to the American citizenry by any means.

              Honestly I think we’re vastly better off because the petty, vicious small-mindedness of your neighbors is much less likely to get you dead than it used to be.Report

        • There are so many reasons for the collapse of the Roman Republic! That’s what makes the parlor game of comparing contemporary America to (approximately) the time right before the First Triumvirate so similar a pleasure as is the pleasure of going to a horror movie.Report

    • Dark Matter in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      Future historians will no doubt have a lot to say about it, but it seems paradoxical: Why woulda free people consistently vote for figures who specifically promise tp strip away their freedom?

      If memory serves, we had a lot of decades where the Dems were both the party of Blacks and the party of the KKK.Report

      • dhex in reply to Dark Matter says:

        it’s a general question about democracy, as someone’s always giving someone something in exchange for taking something else, and the group being taken from is never the same group you’re selling to (even when it is in reality).

        that said, the inability of voters (or donors, the likely primary audience) who are supporting these abominable bounty-style laws to think even five seconds into a future where their sports team doesn’t hold the reins of power is astounding. we’ve seen a lot of terrible ideas out of american government, and these are easily in the top 3 worst for the past few decades, if not #1.Report

        • Philip H in reply to dhex says:

          that said, the inability of voters (or donors, the likely primary audience) who are supporting these abominable bounty-style laws to think even five seconds into a future where their sports team doesn’t hold the reins of power is astounding.

          The donors believe – probably correctly – that they won’t be subjected to these laws, and that they can exert control if their preferred party looses. SO they get what they want either way.

          The “base” believes the hurt will only be on people they have been conditioned for four or five decades to believe “deserve” the hurt.Report

  6. Kazzy says:

    How would any of the plaintiffs go about proving their case in court? Wouldn’t that require them to have access to confidential medical records?Report

    • InMD in reply to Kazzy says:

      Medical records are discoverable. Sometimes they will be subject to additional confidentiality and access requirements but you can subpoena them.Report

      • pillsy in reply to InMD says:

        Based on very little legal knowledge, but some familiarity with the tactics of the anti-abortion movement, I have a suspicion that an added bonus for the “bounty” approach to enforcement is to get an excuse to comb through those clinic records to find ways to harass women who’ve gotten abortions.Report

        • InMD in reply to pillsy says:

          Disclaimer: I have no experience or familiarity with TX law.

          Generally though I think it would be hard to go on that kind of fishing expedition. You can successfully object to third party subpoenas and I imagine any clinic would do so with respect to records about patients whose care is not the subject of the lawsuit. However they could certainly burden clinics with flurries of subpoenas and the costs of responding to them.Report

    • Philip H in reply to Kazzy says:

      Sit outside clinics in other states. Write down license plates. Run checks through the dozens of websites that data mine government for a fee for background purposes. See what sticks. In the 21st century its not that hard.Report

  7. InMD says:

    Yo, Jaybird!

    Movement on one of your causes:

    https://thehill.com/news/house/3256370-house-approves-bill-legalizing-marijuana/

    I doubt it will pass the Senate, but I think it’s fair to say they are trying.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to InMD says:

      This is a good thing. I’m irritated that it might need to bust a filibuster to get voted on but this from Nadler is spot-on:

      “If states are the laboratories of democracy, it is long past time for the federal government to recognize that legalization has been a resounding success and the conflict with federal law has become untenable,” Nadler said.

      There’s some more stuff in there about how “I don’t think we should pass your bill that taxes it at 8%, we should pass my bill that taxes it at 3%!” which strikes me as a reason to vote for 8% and then start tinkering with the tax number rather than a reason to keep it at SCHEDULE FREAKING ONE but…

      Well.

      It’s good that there’s finally movement, if only temporarily before it dies in the Senate.

      (Hey! McConnell! Add a rider to remove the tax entirely the two weeks before Election Day and you won’t have to worry about vote suppression!)Report