Climate Solutions For The Normal Situations of Normal People
There is a river that flows from the mountains through my home-town, emptying its waters continuously into the Sound. The Green River is bridged by many bridges, most notably amongst them the span that hosts the local library; at times when the snow melts it attempts to leap vigorously past its banks and share its abundance of waters with the surrounding communities. The surrounding communities, who receive their water from the same watersheds through less exuberant methods, usually trying to prevent this with the arrangement of bags of sand — or in earlier times, by simply retreating into the nearby foothills.
The sun burns with the fire of nuclear fusion, a great unconstrained reactor in the sky. For various reasons, its light — life-giving and deadly — rains down more heavily in these days than before. There are some things I can do about this, and many things I cannot do, because I enjoy the health benefits of not living destitute and starving in the mountain winter, fed only by a handful of juniper berries to die of the frigid cold. However, I spend quite a lot of time being scolded over the things I cannot affect — whether by the simple fact of the existence of advanced human society, or by the necessities brought on by my own health and the health of those I love. The funny thing about all this is there are things that could be done, if enough people asked for them, if we did not remain caught up in stupid and vacuous arguments wherein if we do not all commit suicide (or at least submit to the feudalism of the solar panel-owner), we are villains who desire to see the fields burn and the mountains laid bare under the angry glare of the day-orb. To some, all have sinned, and all deserve to roast upon a hell of our own making — unless you can afford Ray-Bans and geothermal-powered air conditioning in a retreat in the mountains of Colorado. Thus, renewables should be deployed only in such a way that they are accessible to the virtuous eco-rich; all others must stew in their own sweat, then fry ’till naught but the sun-bleached skulls of the unvirtuous and materialistic poor pave the streets of our birth.
This is, clearly, foolishness. The solution to a situation where a great many die is not to kill them or condemn them to death, but rather to seek solutions to this impending doom that will save both the rich and poor, the virtuous and unvirtuous. If a solution is presented to problems of climate that ignore the existence of normal people in normal situations, it is no solution.
It is 99 degrees Fahrenheit where I sit — this is 37 degrees Centigrade, for those of you in places that are not in the US, and about 310 degrees over absolute zero on the Kelvin scale (plus roughly a third of a degree, but what is a third of a degree between friends? My laptop thermometer is not accurate to any decimal place). Some of my friends will return from their work day to un-air-conditioned brick cubes, painted white, where the lights are never on to save on energy — and on heat generation. Recently, in the Valley of the Sun, an energy executive from a major electrical company from a nearby area lobbied to close our nuclear reactors (capacity: 3,810 Megawatts) and replace it with a pair of solar farms (capacity: 450 Megawatts, backed by batteries to maintain useful output when the sun isn’t out). The nuclear plant provides power to a significant portion of the southwest; Phoenix is one of the fastest growing cities in the US, and rising popularity of electric cars will further increase electrical demand. Fortunately for us, it seems the final version will not necessarily involve closing the nuclear plant.
If renewables were deployed alongside increased nuclear, clean power could be secured for coming generations while vastly decreasing environmental impact and ending reliance on coal and gas. Why settle for a future in which all but the richest live in low energy cubes, without air conditioning? That future only looks like a good thing if one considers the poor and historically disadvantaged to be the ones to blame for today’s climate problems. It’s also a terrible future and not one I’d much like to live in. However, it seems to be the one the Sierra Club and Greenpeace desire; both have fought nuclear power, and the acceptance of their strategies in Germany has lead to long-term reliance on coal, gas, and burned biomass. Compare France, which is powered by nuclear, wind, and solar, and has the lowest electricity prices in Europe, power accessible to all..
My laptop is set up on the last floor of this building before the roof, as a pleasant wind flows through this twenty-foot gap in the walls. Through the smog, the mountains are hazy outlines some twenty miles distant. It would make a good wallpaper. When my day is done, I’ll get in a car and drive fifteen minutes home; without a car, taking public transport, it would take me three hours — hours I cannot afford, if I want to get my various other tasks of the day completed. At my previous home, further towards the edges of the town, where I sublet a room from a young professional couple, a return journey would take me twelve hours in the evening. I have seen people on Twitter hotly discuss simply banning cars from city cores; rarely do I see these people consider that one must have robust public transit first, or you ban everyone who cannot afford housing in city cores. Why settle for the most annoying form of the future, why punish those with long commutes, when we could instead vastly improve our public transport, perhaps rendering such bans unnecessary — or at least vastly lesser in their cost?
There is little secret I drive old cars over long distances. My little old Honda hatchback got a good 32 miles per gallon, no mean feat for something hailing from the 1980s. Once, I broke down fifty miles from home; I drove it home, patched with scraps of hose and wire. There was no way to accomplish a perfect repair at the side of the road; once I had the resources, I fixed it the right way. Nuclear power is not perfect; buses can be made electric but many fleets still rely on fossil fuels, and infrastructure must be built regardless. But why give up if we can’t immediately achieve the best possible outcome — nuclear fusion, reacting hydrogen or helium, buses and trams running on technology we don’t yet own, on space stations we can’t yet build, powered off solar power unfiltered by atmosphere?
When I was a teenager, there was a particularly bad year around the little river that runs through my hometown. The sandbags didn’t constrain it, though they did buy time; the inhabitants of the valley used this time to move to higher ground, and returned when the floodwaters resided. The gardens the next year grew bounteous with the nutrients brought by the overzealous water. Some homes needed rebuilding. We built the banks a little higher, repaired the erosion of the natural walls that had come to appoint the bounds of the river. We could not have built the banks higher during the time of flooding; we could not have repaired the erosion while it lay under the playful waters rushing to see the plain and the ocean. But we could make things better, buy time, so that the people of the valley would live to build up the walls at the end of the time of the water’s run, during the hot summer when the river lies languid and shallow beneath the library.
“The perfect is the enemy of the good,” runs the cliche, but in this case it seems true. Enough different goods can get us to a point where the perfect is possible, or at least to a point where the bad won’t overrun us. No other approach seems likely to give us a chance. The river will rise again, if not this year, then in one of the next. Even if we cannot prevent its rising, we can still at least pile up a few sand bags, and not be swept away.
Having spent 4 years doing work in the Green River watershed and Puget Sound the beginning of your essay resonates. I know those waters and that library, though likely not to the nuance you do.
And your call for using good instead of perfect is also true, but it only goes so far. Nuclear can be, and probably will be – a part of the bridge. But it has two flaws that even the NIMBYs never seem to address.
The first is that next generation engineering for newer, smaller, more powerful reactors seems to have remained an academic pursuit in the US. if private companies are investing in them they are doing so very quietly. Which means the public perception is still 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl. That has to be addressed before one considers the good enough approach.
The second issue is waste – given how difficult it has been to deal with Yucca Mountain or Hanford, finding waste solutions for nuclear has to be on the table and openly discussed or the whole proposition goes down. This is ALSO part of meeting normal people where they are, and its a part nuclear proponents seem to wave hands over without any serious consideration. There are solutions, but they need to be more aggressively discussed.
And in the end, we have zero consensus on the end game. My own take has been that industrial scale production will require multiple generation sources, but that local scale (and by local I mean each building) may be more successful. Perhaps if we could agree on a good enough end game this would be easier to move the needle on.Report
The engineering is largely academic because the regulatory system won’t let it get further than that (be it the Fed or the States). Michael Cain is way more dialed into the where’s and why’s of that, but we shouldn’t sit here and pretend that no one has been working the problem; rather, the problem is as worked as other will allow. It’s to the point where you need to build something and finish working out the bugs. I sometimes wonder why folks don’t just buy an old oil platform (or convince BP to give one up) and do the final work out in international waters.
People aggressively pursue fusion partly because getting permission to do so is vastly easier than fission.
As for waste, we know how to recycle spent fuel, we aren’t allowed to.Report
“international waters” is not actually a thing. the US Exclusive Economic Zone goes out 200 miles from our coast, which takes in every rig in the Gulf. and de facto our enforcement responsibilities out that far are essentially what we do out to the 12 mile Territorial Limit.
Outside the EEZ you are in the High Seas, and while one can work out there with fewer restrictions, thats farther out then the moored Oil platforms go.Report
and then you’re running a vessel with a flag, and run into all the treaties and laws that apply to *that*.Report
There are oil platforms that aren’t moored.
Russia has actually done quite a bit of work developing floating nuclear power stations.Report
Every time someone buys an oil platform and builds a nuclear reactor James Bond shows up and shuts the whole thing down.Report
That cheeky bastard!Report
I see the general lack of pursuit of smaller-scale and modern designs using fission as part of letting the perfect be the enemy of the good – my experiences (which may not be wholly indicative of the industries involved at large) have revolved around people arguing against them as not being able to power the entire region from a single plant. I see this as undesirable because single points of failure are bad. When was the last development on pebble-bed reactors, which are subcritical and can’t melt down? Why are the benefits of some of the molten salt designs that don’t *have* the same risk profile not being widely advertised?
Waste is definitely an issue to think about. However, the Hanford Site isn’t the best way to look at it – Hanford wasn’t following environmental regs *of the time*; they found a concerningly large amount of missing plutonium in a dang safe in a burn pit a few years back. The Swiss and French approaches (and struggles) seem like a better place to look – the Swiss are containing theirs in a single relatively small warehouse, and the French have a couple warehouses plus an underground storage facility that was in the works as of two years ago.
Waste can be reduced by using reprocessing and breeder reactors to get more use out of each piece of fuel, within traditional reactor architectures – although to a certain extent this does only kick the can down the road several years. And it’s still far easier to contain than the radioactive and gaseous output from coal. How does this change with unitized low scale liquid salt reactors? This is beyond me, for the moment, because *nobody’s talking about it*.
I agree with you that we need consensus on the end-game, but if we are facing a dire existential threat, we *must* as a people start talking about it – and if some of the projections I’ve seen are anywhere close to right, we need to start building these strategies yesterday, which means there needs to be conversation on the topic at all levels. If we’re ten years from mass extinction (I think this is a little aggressive an estimate, but that’s what some of the green groups are saying), maybe it’s ok to kick the waste problem can down the road by 50 years and toss the interim stuff in a set of repurposed concrete ammo bunkers in Oklahoma or something – then at least we’d have a 50 years from now in which to figure it out.Report
Speaking of waste
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/olkiluoto-island-finland-nuclear-waste-onkaloReport
The first is that next generation engineering for newer, smaller, more powerful reactors seems to have remained an academic pursuit in the US.
DOE and a bunch of small utilities (UAMPS) are pursuing construction of a power plant based on SMRs in Idaho using the NuScale design. It’s being built on INL land so the state has no say in a business license. The cooling water will be taken from the Snake River by the feds preempting state water law (the Snake is grossly over-allocated and it is unlikely they could buy sufficient rights). The utilities are all relatively small. Some have dropped out, some new ones have come on board over the course of the project. The initial wholesale price target for power was $58/MWh, but the capital cost estimates have gone up a lot since that number was released. Two utilities not involved, Pacificorp and Idaho Power, think $90-$120/MWh are more realistic. A couple of years ago, Xcel Energy Colorado received firm offers to buy wind power for $17/MWh, utility scale solar for $23/MWh, and solar-plus-storage for $30/MWh.Report
There’s a line out there that goes something like “I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people telling me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis”.
There are engineering solutions to this problem that, while imperfect, move the ball in the right direction (and can even lay groundwork for more progress and getting closer to that perfect solution).
But, as it stands, it feels more like opportunities to give moral speeches than update this or that regulation to make it more in line with what we know in the current year (compared to the year in which the regulation was established). When regulators start saying “okay… maybe this is important enough to revisit the regulations…”, I will know that it’s time to start freaking out.Report
major insurance companies are already rewriting policies to account for climate change. The largest corporate users of NOAA Climate Data (which is freely available to the public I might add – your taxes at work) are Fed-Ex and Amazon because climate change impacts their business in ways that mean real dollars. A number of federal agencies have revised, or are revising, hundreds of regulations to account for climate impacts. Plenty of people are acting like this is a crisis. The fact that some portion of the 534 politicians in Washington DC are not should not be your indicator.Report
Oh, it doesn’t surprise me that insurance companies are rewriting policies. They’re writing checks! That’s a good way to become a former insurance company.
A number of federal agencies have revised, or are revising, hundreds of regulations to account for climate impacts.
GOOD!
I still remember what Arnie said about all of the pushback he got for trying to put a solar panel farm in the Mojave: “if we can’t put solar power plants in the Mojave Desert, I don’t know where we can put them“.
I’m pleased that solar power plants got built in the desert over the objections of others. We need more of that sort of thing. (And, yeah, I know we’re going to have more of it. A lot more.)
The fact that some portion of the 534 politicians in Washington DC are not should not be your indicator.
Those are pretty big portions.Report
It takes a few years to build a reactor, and regardless of whether it’s time to freak out yet or not, revisiting regulations and building out good capacity is generally A Good Thing.
Personally, I think we’ve got a half-century or so before it’s real freak out time, but if we can, say, make it so we never hit real freak-out time, while having cleaner air and cheaper energy for a growing population, this would be good.
People are busy moralizing instead of talking about solutions (as you rightly note), but, well, isn’t Congress moralizing about the political events of the past two years too, despite all that being tied to very clear and present dangers?Report
It seems to be the only thing Congress does proactively these days.Report
I guess I can understand people on the ground moralizing instead of talking about solutions.
It’s not like they can push one way or the other or effect any real change beyond stuff like recycling, spending an extra $5 per KWh, or switching bulbs. After that, what’s on the table? Well, you pretty much have to moralize.Report
I cheerfully admit to partisan bias towards Democrats, so I strongly resist any sentence that begins with “Congress is…” as if the entire 535 members of the House and Senate can be spoken of as a body.
The House and Senate Democrats are NOT merely moralizing about climate change but have introduced and passed legislation intended to combat it.
The entirety of the House and Senate Republican action has been to toss a snowball onto the floor and block any action proposed by Democrats.Report
The Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal is a non-binding resolution that calls for the creation of a Green New Deal.
It is currently “Referred to Committees of Jurisdiction”.Report
Biden aims for sweeping climate action as infrastructure, budget bills advance
After years of dragging their feet, lawmakers in Washington advanced a pair of major bills this week that include significant provisions for tackling climate change as scientists continue to ring alarm bells about the state of the planet.
The Senate approved on Tuesday a sweeping bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill with funding for many public works meant to cut climate-warning emissions. A day later, Democrats in the chamber took a major step to adopt an even bigger, $3.5 trillion budget bill supporting yet more programs for cleaning up power plants and cars.
Each, if passed, would invest billions of dollars in the sort of clean energy transition the United States must make to have any chance of hitting the goal set by President Biden to cut the nation’s emissions by at least 50 percent by the end of this decade.
What were the Republicans doing during this time? Aside from moralizing about abortion and mask mandates?Report
Oh, please don’t see my pointing out the proposed Green New Deal as a defense of Republicans.
I hope that the bill the Democrats introduce help us reach our target emissions for 2035.Report
One of the difficulties of the large scale issues like climate change is that it is regarded as optional, like the status quo is that nothing happens.
Except the natural world is indifferent to our desires, and is always in Flux.
The West is being ravaged by fires. No one authorized them, no one voted for them and against them there is no appeal, no recall, no injunction possible.
The cost of these fires will be paid. Again, there is no objection, no vote, no way to argue or object or even beg for mercy. We can squabble over how to allocate the costs but a very large amount of our collective wealth has simply, and literally, gone up in smoke.
Yet we still insist on treating the issue as if it were a hypothetical which can be rejected if the outcome is not to our liking.Report
Politicians are used to being able to define their own reality – they can declare something to be so and the apparatus of government is largely required to go along with it. The difficulty is that some things can’t be simply ordered to go along with the leadership’s vision. Sometimes its hard fiscal constraints, like when a country exhausts its ability to borrow, but sometimes its a force of nature that no government can command. The true test of a government’s competence is how it handles these issues.
You can see it with COVID, some governments have stubbornly refused to acknowledge that they have to change anything and we can see the terrible result of that folly. Climate Change is another such test, nature will not bend to political will, so our political will has to acknowledge the reality of that or the consequences will be dire.Report
We can talk and take action if we like, but it’s not going to change the facts on the ground. China ain’t gonna participate in any action that reduces their coal fired plants power output, and without the second and third world on board, any actions the first world takes will only delay the “crisis”. Hell, it’s likely that in 20+ years or so China will be calling the shots, as we witness the west fall into second world status….Report
Before we address the crisis, we have to conceive of it, and I’m not sure the human mind can concieve of it.
I think I am sufficiently grim and serious-minded and had imagined some bad things. Then, this year, we had a town record the hottest temperature on record for Canada at 49.6 c. (about 121 degrees f.) but what I can’t wrap my head around is the old record was about 45 degrees celsuis,
so try to imagine a town breaking the old tremperature record by a jump of about 40 degrees f.! And, then, as I’m sure you know, the entire town burned to the ground- in a day.
It’s just impossible for me to imagine something like that until it happened. Really, nobody predicted that. One of our two major political parties voted earlier in the year that they don’t believe climate change exists. What seems clear, however, is whatever’s coming we simply won’t be prepared for it. So, I guess that’s a prediction anyway.Report
A million years ago, Midnight Oil’s hit “Beds are Burning” had the line “The Western Desert lives and breathes at forty-five degrees!”
And that was unimaginably hot.
Now? Heck, Canada does that sometimes.Report