Vaccination Rates Slow to A Crawl, Worrying Officials
Administered vaccination rates for Covid-19 have fallen by two-thirds from their April peak, imperiling the goal of 70% vaccinated nationwide.
Plummeting vaccination rates have turned what officials hoped would be the “last mile” of the coronavirus immunization campaign into a marathon, threatening President Biden’s goal of getting shots to at least 70 percent of adults by July 4.
The United States is averaging fewer than 1 million shots per day, a decline of more than two-thirds from the peak of 3.4 million in April, according to The Washington Post’s seven-day analysis, even though all adults and children over age 12 are now eligible.
Small armies of health workers and volunteers often outnumber the people showing up to get shots at clinics around the country, from a drive-through site in Chattanooga, Tenn., to a gymnasium in Provo, Utah, or a park in Raleigh, N.C.
The slowdown is national — with every state down at least two-thirds from its peak — and particularly felt across the South and Midwest. Twelve states, including Utah, Oklahoma, Montana, the Dakotas and West Virginia, have seen vaccinations fall below 15 daily shots per 10,000 residents; Alabama had just four people per 10,000 residents get vaccinated last week.
But the picture varies considerably across the country: Thirteen mostly East and West Coast states have already vaccinated 70 percent of adult residents, and another 15 states, plus the District of Columbia, are over 60 percent and will likely reach Biden’s goal.
The rest are lagging behind. Tennessee and five other states are at 50 percent or below and vaccinating at such low rates that meeting the president’s threshold is very unlikely.
The steep decline began in mid-April, coinciding with federal officials’ temporary suspension of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while they probed rare blood-clotting reactions. That slowdown has continued, with only 2.4 million adults getting their first shot last week. Officials must get a first dose to 4.2 million adults per week to meet Biden’s goal of ensuring that 70 percent of adults are at least partially vaccinated by Independence Day.
Complicating the push: Health officials have already reached the “low-hanging fruit — those people who absolutely want to get vaccinated without you telling them anything,” Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious-diseases expert, said on a White House-organized call with community leaders on Friday. “You’re left with a group that you may need … trusted messengers who go out there and explain to them why it’s critical for themselves, for their family.”
Polls have found that about one-third of Americans have no immediate plans to get vaccinated, with some holdouts saying their skepticism has intensified over time and others arguing the issue is moot because the pandemic has receded in the United States. Public health experts say the nation needs widespread immunity to prevent a resurgence of cases later this year.
I my county, 97% of all new Covid cases are from un-vaccinated persons. At this point, Darwin is doing his work.Report
Execution matters.
I suppose this is another of those matters where we absolutely *know* that herd immunity is achieved at exactly 70% of fully vaccinated people… Not some conspiracy theory that a combination of 66% of vaccinated adults (currently at 62%) plus another substantial overlap of people who have had the virus and natural antibodies, plus overwhelming vaccination of at-risk people = public health mitigation/success.
I’m pro-vaccine… got it myself and for all my children (except 6yo who isn’t eligible) … and we’ve known that vaccination rates were going to drop in the summer as Covid seasonally ‘disappears’ … but we’ll still see vaccine rates go up over the summer… probably topping 200M first doses… maybe hitting 230M by the start of school (maybe more) as it gets ever easier to get one.
But execution matters… and the goal should be focusing on making the vaccine easier (and easier) to get – which it has been – and emphasizing the incredible gains we’ve made since March (which we’ve made!)… and reminding people to get ready for Fall where we’ll (inevitably) see a bump (hopefully a small one)… by making it even easier to get a vaccine – hopefully from your Dr.
But doomcasting that the population is failing Govt goals is still bad execution…
And using success to try to score political points is also bad execution… but probably the primary motivation.Report
One of the stories I read over the weekend discussed the whole issue of “if the vaccine is free, how come they need your insurance information?”
And it turns out that the shot is free to you but your insurance gets a check from the government when you get the shot… and went on to tell about a handful of horror stories where a small number of people who got the shot were billed a fee. Not for the shot, of course. That’s free. But, you know, a “visitation fee” or something like that for sitting in the waiting room prior to getting the free shot.
The story made a big deal about how illegal this was and what you should do if you get a fee like this.
And I was just sitting there thinking about how the administrators of whatever building pulled that crap needed to sit in a cell for a decade or so and how this story was an infohazard in its own right.
We should make it trivially easy to get a shot. Like, walk up, get stuck, get a card easy. Every single request for identification or insurance is going to result in people not getting the shot. Make it trivially easy to get the shot. Jeez.Report
Right… when my wife was taking the girls for their second… there was a walk-in (at a Walgreens) who was very concerned about whether it was ‘really free’ … we’re inundated with FREE but not free, so it’s absolutely reasonable that folks who are exposed to FREE not free might question the whole FREE.
Do a better job making it free.
I’m also confused by the whole insurance thing from a different angle… my sign-ups asked for insurance info, but we never gave it, and it didn’t force us to give it… so, why include it as it’s very clear that in some cases – who knows which – the insurance company aren’t being reimbursed on a dose-by-dose basis.
Make it easy, confirm it’s free, make it a little easier, and don’t turn it into a political validation step.Report
In most urban and suburban places it is trivially easy. Hell, its trivially easy in Mississippi. Our county still has a drive up clinic staffed by the National guard at the local sports arena, an within a fifteen minute drive of my house are three pharmacies and a Wal-mart all giving out vaccines with no appointment. And they all have big street facing signs saying such. When I got mine I was asked for my insurance when I set my appointments on line, but neither I, my wife nor my three eligible daughters have been charged anything for the vaccine or visits etc.
Never thought I’d type this – but if Mississippi can do this without f’ing it up too much so can everyone else.Report
For Colorado, it was easy, but not trivially easy. We had to give our insurance information and provide photo ID.
They typed into a computer for a minute before giving our ID back.
As the guy who is going to be first in line for the forehead tattoo, I didn’t have a problem with this… but it wasn’t that difficult for me to imagine someone for whom that sort of thing would move them from “fine, I’ll get the shot” to “I don’t know whether I want to get the shot…”Report
It’s getting easier… but only in the past week or so would I call it Trivial in VA… so I expect we’ll see an on-going stream of people getting vaccinated all summer… and an up-tick in the fall.
But for my daughters (12/17) who just got their second dose today… the process 3-weeks ago was not trivial… and they navigated direct to a specific Walgreens after using the Govt. Site that asked for your zip code… then told you nope!… would you like to enter another zip-code? Nope, none in that one! Want to try another zip-code? eventually they put in a zipcode for an area that we never go to… but is only 8 miles away. So… trivial? We were being actively told that there were no vaccines in our Zip.
My 17yo signed-up with the state… she was never notified that she was eligible or that there were options in an 8-mile radius.
Now? Signs at the local Costco that you can get a free vaccine… but only in the past week.
We’re just now entering the the *beginning* of ‘trivial’ phase… an important part of trivial phase is not telling people they are idiots for not already having a vaccine that is “trivial to get”
edit: and this is obviously just for one micro-zone… multiply by 1M and I have no idea where it’s trivial and where it’s almost trivial, and where it’s still convoluted.Report
That’s about how it is here too. When I got my vaccine in April I had to drive an hour and forty-five minutes out into the sticks because appointments were so scarce. Now even the little county rec center I jog by (not to mention every retail pharmacy from CVS to Costco) has giant signs soliciting walk-ups.
If we’re really that worried we should send Fauci out into the bush with fatigues and blowdarts. We can do a reality show and frame it as hunting the most dangerous game of all… And by that I mean, ‘man,’ not necessarily just people who might be Republicans.Report
Need’s a good catch phrase: he hits a target, then pops out of hiding on TikTok saying Fauci Ouchi Nowchi to some kpop hit.
Or something like that, I’m just spitballin’ here.
Slightly more seriously, I’m just surpized at the Masktastrophe that Biden’s team let happen… thought for sure we were going to walk through easy milestones to 200M vaccinations by July 4th with easing restrictions along the way to some sort of under-promise/over-deliver festival culminating July 4 weekend.
Instead, we’ll hit the same targets, but be informed we as a people have greatly disappointed our government.Report
They understand the theory of the carrot but not the spirit.Report
Heh. I had the same experience. 2.5 hours to the Wags in Galesburg (luckily really close to my in-laws). And, wouldn’t you know it, a vaccine clinic was set up in an empty bldg. the next street over, literally a 2 minute walk away.Report
I don’t see a situation in which personal information is not going to be taken. Vaccination records have to be reported to the city or state for the vaccine database. What data is required varies from state to state, but its part of the public health system. I also assume some medical records are required to be kept by medical providers as part of best practices (or protection against liability claims). Also, if the provider is going to be reimbursed, then they are going to have to have proof that they actually vaccinated a real person. And I’ve never heard any public health official say proof of insurance is required, they just ask you to bring proof of insurance if you have it.Report
I understand *WHY* they’re doing it the way they’re doing it. Hell, I understand why a handful of places charged the people who got the vaccine a fee for sitting in the waiting room.
I just think that it’s bad and there should be a point at which the benefits from the tradeoff between making sure the excel worksheet has the right data and putting the shot into the right arm will change.Report
You could probably handle it with better information about why it’s happening and reassurances that it’s not going to result in something adverse.
I had a somewhat strange experience at mine where they told me my name wasn’t on the list, despite the fact that I’d gotten a confirmation call the day before. I’m even pretty sure that call came from the person I was talking to. They took my insurance card and I got that bad feeling in my stomach you get when you realize you’re about to be subjected to some bureaucratic ordeal. I was all ready to start lawyering at them but then the guy came back and I got the green light. Obviously I stayed but it was awkward enough I could see how someone wavering may have vanished during the time between check in and the actual shot.Report
I had the same thing. I’d made an appointment at CVS, gotten several confirmation e-mails and texts, went there, checked in both in-person and online, and then, when I got to the vaccination station was told there’s a problem and I need to get it resolved at the regular pharmacy window. When I got to the front of that line, the pharmacists said “It’s fine”, led me back to the vaccination station and told them I was legit.
No idea what that was all about, and it added all of five minutes to the process. Still weird, though.Report
Yup, same deal except mine was at a Wal-Mart.Report
If there’s a civil or criminal penalty attached to messing up that Excel sheet it takes precedence.Report
If someone thinks that a free vaccine isn’t free, I doubt we’re in a situation where top-down trust building works. Seems like everybody that gets vaccinated tells someone else they got vaccinated, and family and friends would be the best to assure someone the trick to getting a free vaccination.Report
It wasn’t in The New Republic, but this New Republic story hits the same notes.
Replies include an interaction where a guy asked “is the shot free?” and a pharmacy replied “The cost should be covered by your health care provider.”
Now, if you were talking to a doctor and they said “The cost should be covered by your health care provider” in response to your question about whether a procedure was covered, how certain would you be about the procedure not emptying your rainy day fund?Report
Her perspective on what is almost purely a health care reform polemic is pretty provincial. Americans are less vaccine hesitant than countries that have the type of health care system she is advocating. Willing to take Covid-19 vaccine:
U.S. 75.42%
U.K. 71.48%
Italy 70.79%
Germany 68.42%
France 58.89%
People with low incomes, low education and/or belong to a religious minority groups are always the least accepting of vaccinations. The examples of people getting charged in waiting rooms or at pharmacies seems odd to me because the reachout to people with low incomes around here involves “socialized medicine”: free government clinics set up at the county building, a bus depot, pop-up parties organized by community organizers and churches.Report
The points that I noticed weren’t the “WE HAVE TO REFORM HEALTH CARE!”
I mean, we all have opinions on that one and I suppose I’d love to hammer out the problems with every single solution proposed by every single “reasonable” person out there.
I more or less stand by my position in the comments to this post.
The stuff I found interesting was the sheer number of people who thought that they were being lied to about “free” and the non-zero number of people who got the shot and got billed.Report
Where I stand is that I believe we have hit herd immunity, meaning that the basic reproduction number has fallen below 1 and will not rise above it again. That doesn’t mean that there may not be localized outbreaks, so there remains benefits to vaccination. But at this point, I simply want everybody to have had a chance to get vaccinated. The person who believes free does not mean free does not appear to be fertile ground. And if it means changing laws, then there is not enough time left.Report
I want to say that herd immunity, like everything else, will be unevenly distributed.
I go back to the story I heard where the vaccination site people started knocking on nearby doors. They went into a Starbucks and asked if anybody wanted the vaccine and all of the customer had been vaccinated and none of the workers had.
Man, that story *STILL* bugs me.
Anyway, the point is that we’re likely to have parts of town where the vaccination rate is north of 70 or 80 percent… and parts of town where it’s south of 40.
And if you look at the rates for the county, it’ll say “Hey, 58% vaccinated!”
And we might be tempted to feel good about that number.
But herd immunity will be unevenly distributed and we need to do a better job of getting the shot into the arms of people like those counter workers.Report
An important question — and one I won’t pretend to have an answer to — is why did that distribution exist?
Were counter workers not yet eligible for the vaccine?
Were the practical hurdles to getting vaccinated too numerous or challenging for them to navigate?
Did their job not allow them an opportunity to get the shot?
Were they anti-vaccine? Vaccine resistant? Vaccine lazy?
We can see wide disparities between the states, which I don’t believe can be attributed to vaccine supply/distribution (e.g., access). So what’s causing that? It’d be easy to look at the political leanings of the states and say, “Well, there ya go,” but I don’t think it’s that simple nor do I think we should just throw our hands up and say, “Well, there ya go,” while the disparity is as wide as it is. A few percentage points will be what it will be. But 10, 20, 30 point gaps is problematic for a host of reasons.Report
I don’t know but there are a handful of guesses that make sense.
I think that part of it might be peer groups. The three people that I’m closest to (spouse, mom, boss) were all enthusiastic vaccine people. I also have a handful of friends who are not anti-vax, but they’re anti this particular vax. If I were closer to those friends than to the three listed above… would I have elbowed my way to the front of the line and gotten my shot on the 2nd day it was made available for my group? Heck no.
Knowing myself, I would have waited until there was a walk-up event that I happened to have been walking past. As it is, I’m married to a Librarian who had spent the months previous hammering out what to do and how and, when our group officially became eligible for the shot, she signed up and then stood over my shoulder as I signed up.
One of the tricks I was taught years and years ago was to look at social phenomenon using disease spread modeling. It works for murder rates, it works for college… I haven’t looked, but if I were to bet money, I’d bet that it probably works for vaccine enthusiasm, vaccine apathy, and vaccine resistance.
So, when it comes to the counter workers, I’d guess that the practical hurdles were enough to get them to move from “I’ll get it as soon as I’m eligible” to “I’ll get it when it’s easier”.
The people they hung out with every day didn’t have a story of “Oh, I signed up, it was tricky but I can walk you through it” but one of “man, I can’t believe that they made the process that dumb”.
On top of that, there are stories out there floating around of people getting the shot and then getting blood clots, people getting the shot and then getting a surprise bill, and people getting the shot and then being told “you still have to wear a mask”.
If you’ve got 100 people, you probably know that you’re not going to vaccinate all 100.
But every little thing that makes it tougher to get the shot moves the number down from the theoretical peak to one less than that.
Complicated website that requires you put in your insurance card? 80 turns into 77.
No time off after you get the shot? 77 becomes 72.
Stories about how people who get the shot get blood clots? 72 becomes 68.
A story in the news about a surprise bill? 68 becomes 62.
And do this for every single complicating factor.
I hope that stuff like news stories on television about the hospital administrator who charged surprise bills for the vaccine was arrested and frog marched down to the police station and here is her mug shot would bump 62 back up to 64. Time off policies might turn 64 to 67. Don’t worry about the insurance card might turn 67 to 70.
So, in a nutshell, my guess would be that the distribution exists because of Privilege.
But, like, for real Privilege.Report
I continue to argue that getting the shot should be the easiest thing you do that way.
“Okay, that’s two slices and a coke. Do you want chips with that? Do you want your vaccine with that?”
“Here is your 47 mile long CVS receipt and here is your shot.”
“What’s that sign on the front door of work? [squints] ‘We’re opening late today so our employees can get a shot. Employees, please proceed to the shuttle directly behind you.'”
Shit like that.
Have there been advertisements for the vaccine where you are? I’ve seen commercials. The one that stood out was the one that featured a local Black religious leader. To me, that seemed very intentional and very smart. Let’s do that but like a thousand times more.
Lastly, make it a TikTok challenge. Or whatever the hell it is young people do.Report
I agree! I don’t watch enough television to know what the commercials are doing (like, are they engaging or whatever) but I’ve seen a handful before Youtube videos and they’re okay? I guess?
“Get the 2nd shot, wait a couple of weeks, then take your mask off! We’re all in this together! Go to this website and get your shot!”
Which is good, I guess.
I just went to google and typed in “where can I” and it auto-completed to “where can i get a covid vaccine in colorado springs” which is good… and there’s a ton of places. The top ad is “same day appointments at Walgreens!”
And then I see that I have to create a Walgreens.com account…
And this is on the next page:
Pressing boldly on, I didn’t like the #2… but it points out that there are laws that prevent people under a certain age from signing up for Walgreens.com so there are guest sign-in options available but now I’m taking an eligibility test with…
5 questions.
First question: Are you older than 16, between 12 and 16, or scheduling on behalf of someone between 12 and 16?
Okay, fair enough.
Then on the next page there is a question about authorization codes (?) and then 3 questions about whether you’re currently experiencing symptoms, whether you’ve recently tested positive for covid, and whether you have any chronic health conditions.
And then, if you say no on all of those, you then have the opportunity to fill out a form with your name, birthday, race, and ethnicity.
Less onerous than when I signed up, but it still feels…
I dunno. Like the priorities are not toward getting as many shots in as many arms as possible.Report
“Okay, that’s two slices and a coke. Do you want chips with that? Do you want your vaccine with that?”
“What, and have spoons stick to my forehead? Are you crazy!?”
https://www.cleveland19.com/2021/06/09/doctor-claims-during-ohio-statehouse-testimony-that-vaccine-causes-magnetism-makes-spoons-stick-persons-body/Report
Publicize stuff like this:
I’ve seen a bunch of people give big ups to this guy and, you know what? Hey. He did a test, tested it out, and falsified a hypothesis.
Big ups.Report
So…
Some folks may have stupid reasons to not get vaccinated.
As such, we should continue to keep it hard for those willing but not motivated (what I call the vaccine-lazy) to get vaccinated.
Is that really what you’re suggesting?
To Jaybird’s point, if the pizza offer helps move us from 62 to 65… THAT IS A WONDERFUL THING!!!
To Jaybird…
“Like the priorities are not toward getting as many shots in as many arms as possible.”
I agree with everything you said up to that point. And my disagreement is insofar as “I wouldn’t go that far.”
Maybe this is semantics, but it strikes me that the priority is to make sure every shot is delivered “right”. I got certified in MAT… Medical Administration Training. Or something. Basically the training to offer certain kinds of medicines to my students. If I recall, there were 5 rights:
Right person
Right medicine
Right dose
Right time
Right route
We were also told — off the record — that certain emergencies might demand we emphasize those a bit differently. For instance, Epi-Pens are prescribed to an individual. However, all children’s Epi-Pens are identical. Legally, I can’t give Steve’s Epi-Pen to Stephanie. But if Stephanie is having a reaction and for some reason her Epi-Pen is in the other room and Steve’s is in arm’s reach, jab her with Steve’s and figure it out from there.
It seems our vaccine rollout is steeped in the same type of thinking of the “5 rights.” And while no individual shot constitutes an emergency, the situation as a whole is, well, at the very least… urgent.
So I agree we should strip away all those barriers. You don’t need to give Stephanie her own Epi-Pen. Just get the needle in her arm.Report
I fully support stripping away barriers, and applaud the free beer and weed programs.
But we can’t be blind to how much damage has been done by the concerted misinformation campaign.Report
Sure. But that’s addressed elsewhere.
“What about the dumdums?!” is a non sequitur in a convo about making it easier.Report
The debate is why are people not getting vaccines and the answers are probably all true to an extent. I suppose how much stock you put into which reasons are valid or not or contain the largest number of people depends on your level of annoyance/patience at humanity. The reasons are:
1. COVID deniers/anti-vaxxers/lazy people reigning supreme;
2. People are not getting vaccines because they have inflexible jobs that will not give them time off to get vaccinated and/or deal with potential side effects like the 24-48 sickness that many people get after the second shot.
3. People who are still concerned over COVID side effects.
There is also the Big Sort issue that a lot of people who took COVD/stay at home very seriously tend to only know other people who took it very seriously. I think lockdown even in liberal San Francisco and other cities still had a lot of probably shouldn’t have been done socialization going on. We largely hung outside with people over the past year but not always and our “pod” was probably bigger than officially recommended. But I know people who waited a full two weeks after their second shot before they got their first hair cut since March 2020 and who still treat supermarkets and indoor spaces as if they are radioactive hot zones and I admit to some eyerolling here.
I suspect quasi-open is going to be the way forward for a while until something really forces the issue one way or another.Report
>d who still treat supermarkets and indoor spaces as if they are radioactive hot zones and I admit to some eyerolling here.
I got sick for the first time in over a year going out to eat dinner with my family after we were all safely vaccinated.
I freely admit to happily wearing a mask, just to cut down on incidental transmission of just regular crap. It was really nice going a full year without cold, flu, sinus infection, stomach bug, or any one of the myriad other crap you regularly pick up.
That being said, I do actually go out to eat now AND have a trip to Vegas planned in a few months. I’m not exactly treating things like a “hot zone”.
I’m just happy to be able to tamp down on colds and flus without getting weird looks for the time being.
And I sincerely hope, although I know it won’t happen here, that wearing masks when you’re actively sick continues. It’d be really nice if actually sick people weren’t cheerfully spreading it.Report
I freely admit to happily wearing a mask, just to cut down on incidental transmission of just regular crap. It was really nice going a full year without cold, flu, sinus infection, stomach bug, or any one of the myriad other crap you regularly pick up.
A FB friend posted recently that she hadn’t been sick with anything since Jan 2020. It was surprising how many of us replied with the same thing. I had a bout with some horrible respiratory crud in Jan 2020, and not a sniffle since. My understanding is that the 2020-21 US influenza season was an almost complete no-show.
I took my wife to the large medical center for her mammogram last Friday. From what the guy at the front desk said, they don’t plan on ever giving up masks because of the large reduction in sick days used by staff.Report
The number that I saw was that 2038 people had the flu in 2021.
Which tells me that the flu shot is going to miss next flu season.Report
That’s what we’re saying now. And in a year or two or four when everyone says, “Wait, why are we still wearing masks?” they’ll all shrug their shoulders and eventually stop.
Just like for the next year or two or four hospitals will keep a room stocked with PPE “just in case”. And then after that year or two or four or ten — when no pandemic hits and the room hasn’t been opened the entire time — a hospital administrator will say, “Couldn’t we get two more beds in that room?” and that’s what they’ll do and in 50 years when the next pandemic hits we’ll all wonder, “WHY DIDN’T WE KEEP A STOCKPILE?!”
There are also downsides to limiting your exposure to germs. Yes, we’ve all been healthier this past year. But when I did finally catch what should have been a slight cold, it wiped me out and everyone else in the household for almost a week. Our immune systems got lazy.
I also wonder if the awful allergy season everyone seems to be experiencing may also be related to mask wearing. Maybe it is just that bad from a pollen/allergen perspective. Or, again, maybe our immune systems have gotten lulled into a false sense of security.Report
The two big factors in the PPE shortfall were (a) China stopped exports and (b) the general public bought out the existing inventory. The hospitals can’t build a big enough inventory to offset those. The supply chain has to change.
On the other side of Fort Collins from me, a Colorado-based business is building a 100,000 square foot production facility. They make PVC-free plastic tubing and lots of different kinds of fittings for use in medical equipment. The new facility will double their capacity. The owners’ statement about the new facility was, “Our customers tell us they want to be a lot less dependent on China. The long-term agreements we’re signing reflect that.”
Hospitals making long-term supply agreements rather than shopping for whoever has the lowest price on N95 masks this week. Don’t buy all your stuff from suppliers where a non-US government can cut it off. Call it the anti-MBA movement, I guess…Report
That all makes sense. But my hunch is that what will happen is what always happens… once Covid is far enough in the rear view mirror… maybe 10 or 20 years or when no one alive really remembers it… most of that will slip away. People will say, “When’s the last time we had a pandemic? Do we really need to do it this way?”
And that won’t necessarily be wrong either. If pandemics are once-in-a-century events, there is only so much that it makes sense to do the other 99 years.Report
Remember Michael Bowen testifying before Congress last May? Pretty compelling stuff.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?471986-1/vaccine-official-rick-bright-testifies-coronavirus-pandemic-response&fbclid=IwAR3RkIjf1J3EfoeoMGk8Hyglo_YA-qTeuJ5twFARMqxJGMq1sX78E_u3LBkReport
“WHY DIDN’T WE KEEP A STOCKPILE?!”
Well. Most places did keep a stockpile after Swine Flu and Ebola came through. The problem is that the government isn’t allowed to buy a box of stuff and stick it on the back shelf for fifteen years and figure it’ll still be good enough when it comes time to use it. They have to follow the “use-by” and “best-by” dates, which means that every two years when the stuff expires they have to throw it all away and buy new stuff. (They aren’t even allowed to give it away if it’s expired.)
Like, they tried to stockpile ventilators! And then the ventilator company went out of business, meaning that the government couldn’t get them serviced or get replacement parts, and all of those ventilators were thrown away.Report
And we COULD simply re-stock the stockpile every 2 years. I mean, nothing is stopping us.
But how far do we get before someone says, “This money could be going back to the taxpayer!” or “This money could be paying for child care or teachers or homeless services or [pick your pet project].”
And would it be right to re-stock 50 times over the next century instead of putting those funds towards feeding starving kids? Damned if I know…
It’s very easy to say, “We’ll never get caught with our pants down again.” It’s much harder to remain vigilant in perpetuity.Report
Or we could just treat it as a giant warehouse (or regional warehouses) and force the hospitals at least to get their stock from it. Size it for however long you think the stockpile should last — three months? Six? Then hospitals buy the oldest stuff and new stuff is continuously purchased to maintain the size. Everything gets used by the use-by date.
Given that it’s the 21st century, the same thing could be done virtually with private warehouses. But it’s a totally different supply chain than is currently in use.Report
There are undoubtedly multiple solutions. The question is… will we follow through on them? Will we make real changes that will leave us better position for future pandemics? Or will all this fade to the background as soon as our memories start to fade?
Semi-related: I can’t speak to every state in the union, but I’m fairly confident every school is required to practice fire drills. In all the places I’ve worked (MA, NY, NJ, DC) we were required to do one per month.
Lotsa folks roll their eyes at them. “This is such a waste. There’s never going to be a fire. When’s the last time you heard of a kid getting hurt in a school fire?”
Which is kind of the point. The reason school fires result in so few injuries and fatalities is BECAUSE we practice so much. And yet… some folks want to do away with them. Not outsiders. School folks!Report
As you may recall, the Obama Administration left a fairly substantial response capability, which the Trump Administration dialed back.
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200518/fact-check-did-obama-leave-no-pandemic-plan-for-trumpReport
Interesting, your article doesn’t say anything about the Trump administration dialing anything back, or much of anything about the administration. It’s about a statement that McConnell made then retracted.Report
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/trump-obama-coronavirus-pandemic-responseReport
I also wonder if the awful allergy season everyone seems to be experiencing may also be related to mask wearing.
Our spring allergy season seemed to be a matter of an unusually cool and wet spring, with a bit of snow now and then, so everything decided to bloom at the same time.
If this late summer/fall is like last year’s, I’ll definitely be wearing a mask when I’m out on the bicycle on bad smoke days.Report
There is undoubtedly a ton of pollen. I’m just sort of idly wondering about the potential pros and cons of mask wearing in terms of our immune system.
I also worship at the alter of “building” one’s immune system through regular exposure to much of the nastiness that the world offers… though this is sort of a required belief for those of us who work with young children. It’s the only way we can bring ourselves to go back to work each snot-filled day.Report
I still treat supermarkets and other indoor spaces as radioactive hotzones, but Mississippi only has 28% of the eligible population fully vaccinated.Report
I think also for a lot of us, it’s gonna just take a while, psychologically. Like, my university dropped its mask mandate at the end of spring semester (at least for the vaccinated) and there’s almost no one here (only two in-person summer classes going) and yet I feel practically criminal walking down the hall to the loo without a mask on.
And I live in a mask-averse part of the country! I was in Illinois recently, they had just dropped any mask mandates for the fully vaccinated, and still people in the grocery store (who were clearly of an age to have been vaccinated, and I doubt all of them had autoimmune diseases or similar) were masked to a higher degree than where I live (OK) at the height of the pandemic before vaccines.
I think I spent so much time (about a year – until I was fully vaccinated) feeling like the ONLY way I could protect myself was MYSELF – masking and not going out – that “re-entry” is hard for me now.
I still haven’t gone into a store unmasked. I did get a haircut without one but it was a small shop and all the hairdressers had been vaccinated.
I don’t even know what our percentage in Oklahoma is.Report
I’m still wearing a mask because stores around here have mask policies on the door. The closest grocery store has a sign that reads something like: “Please wear a mask in this store,” followed by fine print at the bottom indicating that the fully vaccinated are not required to wear masks. I respond to that by wearing a mask as a courtesy. The place where I get my haircut requires masks. The roaster where I get my coffee beans has a sign that is pretty much the opposite of the grocery store: Masks are not required in store, (smaller print) if vaccinated.
Since I put on my mask in the car, and try to adjust it with my glasses, by the time I can read the sign, I don’t feel like removing it. My wife is wearing her mask in stores so long as she notices workers wearing masks.Report
4) Folks confirming their suspicions that
1) mask wearing doesn’t stop the spread of the bug (per fauci’s emails) and learning that the vaccine.
2) isn’t legally a vaccine and any harm from it to the receiver isn’t eligible for the compensation from the vaccine fund
3) that the vax only is targeted to the original covid bug, and none of the variants, several of which already exist.
4) No long term study has been conducted on it’s effectiveness or safety and the short term tests results may have excluded data which would reduce the claimed effectiveness of the vaccine by a significant amount.Report
“1) mask wearing doesn’t stop the spread of the bug (per fauci’s emails) and learning that the vaccine.”
It does. And fauci’s email said no such thing. I take it you either haven’t read it, or simply feel we’re too stupid to read ourselves.
“3) that the vax only is targeted to the original covid bug, and none of the variants, several of which already exist.”
In fact, it does work quite well on other variants. Total immunity is a bit lower, depending on the variant, but even less efficacy still massively lowers the intensity and danger of the infection.
What does this embrace of conspiracy theories and stupidity actually buy you, other than eye-rolling from the people who happen upon your musings?
Validation from other terrified conspiracy theorists? Some sort of weird ideological vindication? (Weird you have to lie and deceive yourself or others to feel vindicated, but I can’t help but notice it’s quite true for some).
Ah well, back on squelch.Report
I’m just going to point to two page numbers in the Buzzfeed documents, which was linked via this website in another post.
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20793561/leopold-nih-foia-anthony-fauci-emails.pdf
Page 2806. Last paragraph at the bottom of the page:
“Gebelhoff : What should the average person be doing right now about coronavirus? Fauci: It’s a good question . 1) They should realize at this point, it is a low risk. And 2) that risk can change, so pay attention to what’s going on [and] to the … announcements coming from the CDC. … The things that you do for influenza – get vaccinated, wash your hands, avoid crowded places – are exactly the same things that you would do if we did get coronavirus here. So the question is, should we do anything different from what we’re already doing? No. Should we all be wearing a mask? Absolutely not. ”
Page 3027 Top of the page:
“Masks are really for infected people to prevent them from spreading infection to people who are not infected rather than protecting uninfected people from acquiring infection. The typical mask you buy in the drug store is not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through the material. It might, however, provide some slight benefit in keep out gross droplets if someone coughs or sneezes on you. I do not recommend that you wear a mask, particularly since you are going to a vey low risk location. Your instincts are correct, money is best spent on medical countermeasures such as diagnostics and vaccines.”
“In fact, it does work quite well on other variants.” Ok, maybe it works “ok” but it isn’t the smartest way to develop herd immunity. See this link, @ 42.06
https://odysee.com/@Dryburgh:7/byram-bridle-coronavirus-vaccine-concerns:9?src=open&r=GXeCW6HWaKb1wtFgfUW95qquG1m1SHiV
Now, if you’re going to tell me you’re a viral immunologist too, I’ll give your comments equal weight.Report
I’ve read them. You’re clearly cherrypicking and deliberately misreading, including entirely ignoring context and timing. Which means you’re not interested in discussion.
Color me shocked.Report
No, I’m not interested in a discussion. And I’m not cherry picking. He said it. He’s already admitted that he lied in the beginning about masks to preserve the supply for health care workers. So we have a case where a public health official has stated 1) he intentionally lied and 2) that at various times has stated that masks don’t work to keep people from getting the virus. Why should anyone consider his statements other than questionable for then on? I EXPECT politicians to lie to me. I don’t expect public health workers, who allegedly have my wellbeing as their primary concern, to lie to me. As a result, nothing he says now holds any sway with me. Here’s an idea, if you don’t know, say you don’t know, or don’t have an answer, keep you mouth shut.Report
Worse than changing his mind later on… his retcon was a lie.
It was a lie to say he lied because it was a noble lie.
Fauci isn’t a cautionary tale about the banality of evil, he’s a cautionary tale about the banality of Exec Mgmt.Report
I haven’t studied the data, but what seems odd to me is the gap between 1st dose and fully vaccinated. I don’t know if it’s an artifact of record-keeping methods, but the data suggests that a lot of people are content with one shot. Maybe the reputation of the second shot’s side effects is scaring people away? Maybe new studies or rumors are indicating that the first shot is sufficient?Report
I had a talk with a co-worker about this. She expressed concern about the 2nd shot. Like, she didn’t know whether she was going to get the 2nd shot because of all of the scary stories she heard about it.
I did my best to explain what happened to me and I immediately knew that that was a mistake because it didn’t help at all.
So I told her “It was like being hung over.”
And she immediately relaxed.Report
As it happened, the day I had my second (Pfizer) shot, I also went out to celebrate with a friend, and drank substantially above my normal level.
The next day, I woke up with what it was either a mild hangover, or a mild vaccine reaction. It was completely gone by 6 pm. I normally joke that it had to be the vaccine, since it couldn’t be the top shelf scotch.
But when I am alone with my thoughts, I do believe I actually had a hangoverReport
That strikes me as an elegant solution.
“How was the day after your shot?”
“I felt like I had a hangover.”
“Oooh, jeez. That bad?”
“Well, technically, I also tied one on the night before.”Report
Maybe people are waiting to see what new lotteries or prizes are coming down the road if they hold out longer.Report
Actually I think there was a UK study that found better protection for folks who waited longer for their 2nd dose. Though probably not widely known – I haven’t heard anyone talking about itReport
And here I am, breathing free in good health like a sucker.Report
I expect the only bump remaining in the US will be shortly after there is a fully licensed vaccine, and some schools, businesses, etc make vaccination mandatory to be on campus or in the building.Report
From what I’ve seen (MD and OH) the lotteries are open to anyone who has been vaccinated as of the drawing date…
Do any have a cut-off date, that is, a lottery that excludes people who were vaccinated in, say, JAN-MAR?
That would be dumb if there were… but I could see from the reporting how it sounds like they are targeting the group who isn’t yet vaxed, when as far as I can tell, it’s targeting the general vaxxed populi and the stragglers are simply missing out on chances each time there’s a draw.
But given the dreadful communications around all things virus/vaccine, I wouldn’t be surprised if we were encouraging people to hold-out for a smaller pool of eligibles when all they are doing is missing drawings and joining an ever increasing pool. Possibly too one of the states has foolishly designed just such a system (but I haven’t seen it yet).Report
Hmm, well mostly I was just being flip, but now that you mention it, I guess I did vaguely think that your name got thrown in as you got the vaccine, rather than having the whole vaccinated population in the hat. But since I’m already vaccinated and not in a lottery state, I wasn’t highly motivated to know the details — don’t take my ignorance as representative of the target population.Report
CO’s includes everyone who has had at least one shot, regardless of timing. The first week’s drawing was won by a woman who got her first shot in March. I have commented before that to a first approximation, it’s an even-money bet that all five of the million-dollar prizes will go to people whose first shot was before the lottery was announced.Report
It might be time for a bit of peer pressure. Not the “YOU AREN’T VAXXED YET?!?! ARE YOU SOME SORT OF ANTI-VAX NUTTER?!?!?!” type. More of the, “Oh, you haven’t gotten your shot yet? Is there a reason? Ah, yea, I hear that. We’re all busy. Hey, why don’t we go grab lunch and on the way back we can swing by the CVS and get it done. I’ll go with you,” type.
People who are firmly opposed to it are what they are. But folks who are okay getting it but it’ll always be the third or fourth thing on their priority list and how often do any of us get to the third or fourth thing on our priority list? Those folks may need some nudges to move it up a peg or two.Report
The thing that would move large number of people from vaccine-resistant to vaccinated would be an enthusiastic endorsement of he vaccines from Trump. Weirdly, he’s never done that, even while he takes credit for their development.Report
He should tweet something about it. Maybe post it to Facebook.Report
Or his blog. Naah, no one reads those any more.Report
Or give a call to Hannity.Report
Apparently when he brought them up recently at the NC GOP convention, there was silence from the crowd instead of the cheering that followed most of his remarks.
He maybe doesn’t have quite as much influence over his folks as you might think — a lot of what he’s done is the usual sales tactic of figuring out where his audience wants him to be and pretending that’s where he already was.Report
Well, sure. He’s never once asked his base to do anything they don’t already want to do. But I’d think there’s a way of making getting vaccinated own the libs.Report
There’s not. People have denied having COVID while literally dying of COVID.
Even now people are cutting and pasting fragments of banal emails trying to make it into some conspiracy.
Because “COVID 19 is a hoax” or “COVID-19 is just the flu bro” is now Republican ideology.Report
Nicely done.Report
the “denying while dying” meme is less solid than it might seem:
https://www.wired.com/story/are-covid-patients-gasping-it-isnt-real-as-they-die/
we must all be on guard for stories that make your biases feel like they’re in a warm blanket.Report
It was in response to the 2nd paragraph.Report
This is one of those things that strikes me as kinda funny, but then I wander back to “why haven’t the feds done anything yet?”
Report