The “Young Conservative Problem” is Current Conservatives’ Fault
I read, and reread several times with interest, a piece in National Review by Isaac Schorr entitled “A Wake-Up Call for Conservatives” and subtitled “Millennials and Generation Z show no sign of growing more conservative over time like the Boomers did. We must address the age gap.” After citing statistics to the point, he lays out two conclusions:
These results should lead the conservatives interpreting them to two distressing, but hopefully motivating, conclusions.
The first conclusion is an obvious one: A college education is a not-so-golden ticket to a worldview that embraces the premises of the Left. This may be a seemingly self-evident truth to conservatives, but there are those who deny it. This poll makes it obvious that time spent on a campus — being governed by progressive administrators, being taught by progressive faculty, and most important, living amongst progressive peers — tends to turn you into a much more progressive person. Conservatives are quick to complain about this phenomenon, but it’s very possible that we underestimate its consequences…
…The second conclusion naturally follows from the first: Conservatives are not doing enough to persuade young people. Part of this can be attributed to a complacency borne out of the belief that as a matter of course, foolish young liberals will transform into wise old conservatives.
Wrong.
Millennials show no sign of growing more conservative over time like the Boomers did, and there’s little evidence to suggest Generation Z will revert back to the mean. There’s nothing inevitable about generational ideological shifts — they must be earned, not counted upon. I’ve presented my own vision of what I think conservative students can do to make a difference on their own campuses, but their efforts won’t be nearly enough. What is needed is a concerted effort by conservative organizations, publications, and politicians to appeal to America’s youth, an effort that goes beyond sloganeering and providing fan service to those few who already consider themselves young men and women of the Right.
This focus on the need to have the next generation of young conservatives groomed and persuaded from amongst the ranks of college students is not new, of course. Modern conservative activism has been especially focused on campuses for a variety of reasons and methods, from genuine grassroots politicking and base building to the grifting roadshows of the Charlie Kirks of the world. Disdain for the dominance of progressive ideology in the groves of academe is a permanent fixture in the talking points of the right, and not without merit. It is inarguable that higher education is dominated by the ideas and ideologies of the left, that conservatives have made little to no inroads institutionally or culturally in the last few decades to seriously change that dynamic. It is also apparent that a thriving business of political organizations focused on “making young conservatives” while eliciting fundraising from full grown and well-heeled conservatives is part of the mix as well. There is a lot of lather, rinse, repeat to this constant push to reach, recruit, and retain young conservatives.
The thing is, this discussion all too often is taken up as if the young people themselves develop their ideological preferences in some sort of vacuum that only gestates from age 18 to whenever they graduate from college. Schorr correctly notes that the right has made headway with the non-college educated, and that short term that might work out electorally. But he goes on to proffer — correctly, I think — that “it stands to reason that having fewer conservatives with college degrees who can enter fields such as education, journalism, government work, and political activism will have longer-term implications.”
Where I find myself lost with this line of thinking — not specifically to Schorr but to the long-running insistence that college students are a conservative harvest just wanting for labors to gather it in — and not dealing with the issue that those four-years or so of college are a fraction of those young people’s development. The tail end of a young person’s development at that. And we hear, and see, and read, this same line of thinking year, after year, after year.
Consider, no competent parent would wait until a young person left for college, then on Day 1 of no supervision write them an email explaining how to perceive and function in the world after 18 years of not doing so. Or the truly up-to-date parental unit could work up a TikTok video or two explaining morality and ethics in lieu of a lifetime of mirroring it as that young person’s primary role model. Parenting is hard not because children learn what you tell them, but because they learn everything about the people primarily raising them, copycatting their behavior, mannerisms, language, and responses while they develop their own. Children are the world’s best copycats, and as such young adults become the world’s best detectors of hypocrisy when the words and teachings of those authority figures don’t match the actions and lifestyles they see every day, all day, every which way.
These observations include politics and ideology. Seeing if the behavior and the rhetoric matches is how the eyes of youth judge adults. If conservatives and the wider right want to influence potentially young conservative minds and shape their ideological futures on and off-campuses going forward, some self-examination is in order first. What has the last five years taught young people about the conservative ideology? What leaders have emerged and influenced all the things that were done politically and socially under the nomenclature of “conservative” for them to judge? What does the future of conservatism look like to someone who spent their formative high school/college years watching the events of the last five years as President Obama gave way to President Trump who gave way to President Biden?
Actions matter to young people, not words. What has the last five years of mainline conservatism taught them about that label?
These arguments over young conservatives are constantly made online and among the chattering class in a bubble of the priors of those who make them. The reality of having to come out of that bubble and try to convince folks not in that sanitized space to cross over and join the evangelists on college campuses is not as cut and dried as think pieces make it seem. Or viral YouTube videos of internet famous conservative personalities arguing and causing scenes on college campuses. Such things are pitched as revolutions by their creators. They are not, which you can tell easily because if that was true the necessity for think pieces on not reaching young people would not be necessary.
The single most influential force on young people making a decision on whether or not to be conservative is the behavior of the current crop of conservatives. If young folks are abandoning conservatism in numbers, and not returning later in life like past generations, any analysis as to why needs to start not with the young but the generation those young people judged and found wanting. Much like the parent who preaches one thing to a child while living another, watching an ideology proclaim one thing while doing something else is going to leave an indelible impression. An impression that no appeal to policy, culture, or tradition is going to overcome. Appealing to Reagan to folks who are too young to remember W. Bush being president isn’t going to work either.
The issue of “what the next generation of conservatives are” also has to labor under the problem that there no longer is even a widely held definition of what “conservative” even means today. Smaller government? Two of the largest expanses of government in my lifetime, the War on Drugs and the War on Terror, both are/were championed by conservatives. Fiscal responsibility? A fine concept and phrase, but again the last few years have shown too many use the term to mean “no money for what I hate and infinite money for what I want.” Personal responsibility? A fine thing, but requires consistency of not arguing that the political flavor of the day, circumstances, or dominant personality should be excused in all things for the cause, which is the opposite of responsible.
The words are fine things. The slogans are wonderfully catchy and easily Tweetable. The concepts in their purest forms have plenty of merit to discuss. The biggest hinderance to them are not their application, but the lifestyles of those who espouse them that say one thing with their political nomenclature while their conduct on- and off-line proclaims another. Young conservatives only have what current conservatives give them to work with as a starting point. The data shows them rejecting it in droves. Blaming the young conservatives for not wanting to lather, rinse, repeat is not how that equation gets turned around.
Marketing, and yet another 501c3 that takes money from the old in the name of recruiting young conservatives, is not going to fix what is rapidly become a generational problem for those who want to operate under the banner of conservatism in America. And whatever fix will work, has to start with conservatism as it exists right now, today, in the year of our Lord 2021, looking at itself honestly in a mirror. Then, adjusting accordingly.
Otherwise, same.
You know who else grooms and persuades in our society? Abusers of all stripes. It may seem like a silly nitpicky thing, but a movement or ideology or philosophy relying on “grooming” has real problems.
Yes and?
There’s one thing missing in your analyses that the author you quote also probably lacks as well – the behavior of the “conservatives” in question keeps causing more trouble and growing more problems for young people instead of pointing to solutions. I have a 24 and a 22 year old, and they want to finish their education without being impoverished, find and keep jobs that offer them enough to live decently – and because they are my kids live with purpose – and they want to live in a world that’s growing more accepting and open and welcoming, and not a world full of bigotry and exclusion. Modern conservativism – whether of the Buckley-esque Movement flavor or the Trumpian variety or the libertarian strain – has yet to offer them any of that in a concrete way. There’s also the minorly inconvenient fact that the Democratic Party has moved right over my life time, and is now a center to center right party, so that a LOT of what Republicans might have offered a generation ago has become Democratic intellectual property.
So good luck with all that.Report
Offering solutions to problems is not where C’s are at unfortunately. Or at least problems that aren’t related to culture war panic and fund raising.Report
“There’s also the minorly inconvenient fact that the Democratic Party has moved right over my life time, and is now a center to center right party, so that a LOT of what Republicans might have offered a generation ago has become Democratic intellectual property.”
This is a canard that is largely not true anymore. It may have been true in the 1980s and 1990s but the Democratic Party is further left now than it has ever really been. Obama was hesitant on gay marriage in 2008 and now LBGT rights are a mandatory aspect of the party platform. Chuck Schumer is calling openly for federal drug law reform and marijuana legalization. Biden is pretty open in his opposition to the death penalty. The Biden admin also quickly backtracked on the refugee cap last week when slammed by Senator Durbin and others. Jerry Nadler is pushing to increase the Supreme Court by four seats.
It is true we will always have to deal with people like Manchin and Sinema but the party is further left now than it was during the heyday of FDR, Kennedy, and LBJ. When it comes to social politics, it is farther left than many European counterparts especially on diversity issues. But people get beliefs against evidence and it seems like a Herculean task to convince them otherwise.Report
Socially the party may be swinging back left. It remains to be seen if their economic policy will follow suit. Biden is the first democrat since Carter to conceive of tax cuts – after serving in an administration that made prior “temporary” Republican tax cuts permanent. He’s a neoliberal at heart, and that is an economic school that is still more to the right then to the left.Report
Biden passed a two trillion dollar stimulus bill and is about to pass a two trillion dollar infrastructure bill. This is the biggest peace time spending in United States history. There hasn’t been so much domestic spending from the government since the New Deal.Report
Like i said we will see if economic policy follow suit. He is at least willing to learn from Obama’s failings, but I am not yet in a place of trust on a leftward economic swing. Especially since the necessary tax increases are not yet in hand.Report
How does open borders and unlimited immigration increase the chance of earning enough to living decently and afford housing and possibly a family? The bluest areas of the U.S. such as NYC and DC require parental support for college graduates to get a start on a career. The Democrats have doubled down on the need for such support.Report
Well Democrats specifically and liberals generally aren’t in favor of open boarders or unlimited immigration. We do want immigration policy to represent reality and to deal with actual market demand signals – like the 11 million undocumented migrants who are already here for instance.Report
No, most of us want to make their crossings legal to begin with, and easier to process as they arrive. The US is browning regardless.
Try again.Report
“but a movement or ideology or philosophy relying on “grooming” has real problems.”
errrr that’s, like, all of them. prior to maybe five years ago, the mental health-ification of language hadn’t spread so that grooming wasn’t automatically assumed to mean handsy little league coach so much as “caring for”. not a term i’d have used five years ago, much less now, but i am not a fan of paternalism.
but the contagion theory of persuasion is very much a dominant worldview, either in nr mope-pieces like the above or, ya know, the whole radicalized by social media thing. it sucks, and everything is medicalized/therapy-ized to pieces, and that’s just kinda where we are rhetorically in america atm.Report
Sometimes I wonder what language people would speak if they were not taught the language of their parents/guardians.Report
Herodotus addressed this.Report
This boomer got more liberal as he got older. I still have a bit of a conservative streak, but that’s always been with me.Report
Same for this X’er. I don’t know that I’d say I have a conservative ‘streak’ so much as that’s the backdrop and no longer the foreground.Report
Two boomers. My shift coincided with moving to a position where it was clear that there was more than just designing and building a cool device. There had to be marketing people who could sell it and field techs who could repair it and…Report
Definitely agreed with that. When I now see excerpts from NR covering the Birmingham Sunday School which I must have read in my college roommate’s NR, I am appalled that they flew right over my head at the time. He, at least, has switched his registration from GOP to independent. Perhaps the fact that he and I are the only two natural science PhDs from our group had an effect—it is a cliche that “the natural world has a liberal bias.” On the other hand, we have lived almost half a century in a city where there is no majority race, and that has had an effect.Report
My conservativism is mostly of the form “huh, that didn’t work… and maybe it’s not the fault of my ideological enemies (without whom it would have worked)” and “huh, I was lied to by the authorities… apparently they lie a lot”.
And so when I encounter plans that are similar to plans that were tried before, I tend to be skeptical. “Oh, will your plan work this time? What makes it different from last time?”
The whole “Klaxons Going Off” thing when I encounter arguments that have the same form as the ones I used as a Young Earth Creationist also helps. WARNING! WARNING! THERE ARE SHENANIGANS!
(My Progressivism comes from the “I wish the world were not this way” intuition. Maybe we should change it. For the better. WAIT WAIT WAIT NOT LIKE THAT THAT WON’T WORK)Report
Conservatives could start their own colleges! Then they could influence young people into conservative thinking.
Oh, wait, they have those. But they aren’t terribly well regarded, and have lots of honor and behavior codes that have nothing to do with academic rigor, and IIRC, they are kinda pricey…Report
the ones that are well-regarded are either very specialized/focused liberal arts educations, or religiously-oriented, or both.Report
Thank you for this, dhex.Report
Also, it takes a lot of time and money to get a college to the point of self-perpetuation. I would think it easier for a more conservative state electorate to hijack the public university system. I don’t know why that doesn’t happen.Report
Because while the base of the GOP hates current colleges, the center-right suburbanites who still exist in large numbers don’t. Also, any right wing takeover will lead to teachers leaving those colleges, and those same suburbanites will see that as the colleges getting worse.
Mark & Molly, who have solid middle class jobs, who voted for Romney & Trump the first time, but didn’t vote this time around, may be annoyed about some things their kids say when they get back from their freshman year, but they sure as hell don’t want people like Dan & Debbie, their neighbors who watch Fox News and post right wing memes on Facebook on all day in charge either.
A Republican lost a governorship in _Kansas_ due to the perceived notion they were going after education.
Also, the other thing is even under perfect circumstances, professors and graduate students will lean liberal because it’s a relatively low paying position compared to the alternatives.Report
Bari Weiss seems to be able to find a never-ending supply of rich people who are deeply upset about what education their children are receiving at 54K per a year private schools.Report
“Also, the other thing is even under perfect circumstances, professors and graduate students will lean liberal because it’s a relatively low paying position compared to the alternatives.”
i don’t think this is generally accurate, though it is likely specifically accurate, especially on the state level. e.g. i’m sure you can find adjunct-filled institutions in some areas where it is true, and not very adjunct filled institutions in other areas where it is not.
what you will find is that no matter the state or level of pay, professors do not feel they are paid enough. (source: married to professor)
however, i’m not sure that actually hews to political alignment for that specific reason. i would point to the phd pipeline first, which tends to self-select for ideological conformity in certain disciplines a lot harder than others. certain is not most, but it is also very much not zero.
also selecting for ideological conformity is both a valid process for social groups to use and an alienating and even damaging process for those outside of the conformity sort.Report
As a profession, scientists used to be reliable Republican voters until the Evangelicals became a big part of the Republican coalition during the 1980s. They then started voting Democratic. So at least science based academics used to be pretty conservative.Report
I think that is a lot of your rightward shift of the democratic party, people who are conservative, but could not stomach the Moral Majority (and now the Trumpists).Report
See my comment to Philip above. The “rightward” shift of the Democratic Party is taken as an article of faith online* but not present in reality especially now.
*Except among right-wingers who see us as Bolshveks.Report
I think the shift is better characterized as orientation towards bourgeoisie/upper middle class professionals. I suppose whether or not that’s ‘rightward’ depends on where you start.Report
This is a good point.
I mean, let’s look at a handful of simple propositions that, I’m sure, everyone here agrees that they have heard before.
(All parties refer to National Parties and not local ones.)
“End the War on Drugs!”
Which party is the party of ending the war on drugs?
“Conservatives” know that the Republicans aren’t (but they might be okay with medical marijuana and, for adults only, limited recreational use so long as it’s responsible, not that you can legislate that).
“Liberals” know that the Democrats are barely above “useless” on this and it’s only within the last year have they stopped being indistinguishable from Republicans.
“Abolish ICE!”
Which party is the party of Abolishing ICE?
“Liberals” know that while nobody is arguing for Open Borders, people *OUGHT* to be arguing for Open Borders. People are a positive good and Central and South Americans assimilate quickly. Taco Trucks on every corner! Liberals know that while Democrats talk a better game, Obama deported more people in his first term than Bush did in 8 years and Biden is *STILL* putting kids in cages.
“Conservatives” know that Republicans are barely better than Democrats on this because the Democrats think that we should Abolish ICE.
“Abolish the Police”
Which party is the party of Abolishing the Police?
“Liberals” know that there might be a bit of a messaging problem here because nobody is arguing for abolishing the police, even though they might be using “Abolish the Police!” as a slogan. What this really means is “increase police training budgets”. For some reason, dishonest people conflate the two.
“Conservatives” know that the cops might have a few bad apples and there is definitely room for reform at the edges, but most police interactions aren’t awful and we need the police to enforce the laws. Hey, who’s going to do the house-to-house searches for guns if you abolish the police?
And so on.Report
Both the Democratic and Republican Parties need to attract a wide socio-economic range in order to get votes and money/organizers. The Democratic Party does this by pandering to tastes of the upper middle class. Republicans by advancing the cultural preferences of suburban, exurban, and rural white people.Report
I think that shift is present but it is exaggerated.
1. Lower income workers still vote overwhelmingly Democratic but the media and a good chunk of internet commentators are stuck thinking “working class” = “white dude in a hardhat or behind the wheel of a truck.” Truck driving is a diverse profession now and there is large amounts of resistance to counting home health aides as working class.
2. As Andrew pointed out, lots of political writing/marketing is aimed at UMC voters.Report
Sure, and I certainly don’t think it tells the whole story. But I think about my dad who became a Republican in the 70s, which at the time was the party of the educated class. He was of the first generation in my family to go to college and it was unusual for someone like him, who came from a family of working-class, ‘white ethnic’ Catholics to be a Republican. There were still traces of this when I was in Catholic school as a kid, where there were pictures of JFK on the walls. However, having gone to college, the change in affiliation was consistent with alignment at the time.
There are also as you note interesting overlaps of class and race in the US. Your point is right about white guys in a hard hat and how that’s perceived. But you know who is quickly becoming one of the better educated demographics in the country? Black women, who would not traditionally be thought of as an upper middle class demographic, but who in a lot of places are becoming a very important one.
So yes, our thinking about who is who needs to evolve. I think Michael’s ‘bag of cats’ analogy for the Democrats is mostly right. It’s a confederation of interests and/or national unity party with a lot of odd bed fellows. But the orientation IMO is much more UMC now than it was 30 years ago before unionized blue collar labor really went full on death spiral.Report
Query if conservatives going to conservative colleges is a good thing. We have already seen the effects of conservatives reading and watching only conservative media. When people are not only informed but also educated within an ideological bubble, they may not be prepared to deal with a larger reality, into which they must eventually participate and function, in which there isn’t functional unanimity.
(Mutatis mutandis for folks on the other side, etc., but these are not the subject of this discussion.)Report
If you follow the Haidt conception of conservative and liberal values, then a conservative nurtured in a conservative environment would be better-rounded than a liberal nurtured in a liberal environment. That said, I think most conservatives would be happy with schools exposing kids to the full gamut.Report
That kinda gets at the ‘well regarded’ part of the issue, does it not?Report
There’s a self-correction mechanism in all of this. As the educational system continues to churn out fools, the value of an education drops. Credentialism buoys the system, but one of the good things to come out of the past year is an exposure of the system’s weaknesses. Homeschooling and private schooling have gotten a boost, and I know a few people who have retreated from the worst of the urban school systems. Universities seem bent on maximizing short-term profits until online learning sweeps them away, and it’s not a bad strategy, but it’s easy to see how their influence could be waning.Report
Online learning is entirely overvalued by the types of people who do well with online learning. If anything, I’d argue the last year of Zoom school showed how important actual in-person learning is, as seen by the quick move and pressure to get kids back in school.
Also, I’ll bet you a Trading Places style dollar that by 2030, there is no significant difference (let’s say 10%) in the number of students homeschooling + private schooling compared to 2018/2019.Report
Online learning is very good for people who are already good at self-directed study, not so much for kids/people who are still trying to learn how to do that.Report
homeschooling requires a series of ideological (unschooling, religious, hippy/antinomian, etc) and time commitments which are prohibitive…an addition 150k students (abt 10% of total hs population) would be beyond remarkable. it would also crater a number of school districts around the country.
it’d be an interesting/fun phenomena to market to, as they’re an unusual population that is often difficult to reach…but the social distortions would be really widespread.Report
And past the eighth grade, it is going to be very hard for most parents to do homeschooling right because the subject matter, especially in math and science, is going to get way to difficult for non-specialists to teach.Report
it can, but most serious homeschoolers form pods/affinity groups for teaching along their respective/preferred pedagogical lines. there are entire curriculums available, some of which are quite strong. (others of which appear to be largely nonsense). people/parents often shop around, as it were, for curriculums that can be tailored to their students’ needs and backgrounds – there are *a lot* out there. (e.g. i met a student whose parents sought a curriculum tailored for black students, but non-religious – it gets very granular)
i’ve met and worked with some incredibly strong students from homeschool backgrounds. most are a bit quirky, but not generally in a way that speaks to obvious stereotypes.
my interactions with homeschool orgs, on the other hand, are a little more on the “yeesh these guys are aggressive” scale, at least when it comes to their org priorities, etc. like a lot of small orgs, to be fair, but with their own flavor.Report
I don’t know if non-public education will ride the covid wave. We’ll have to see. I think they’ll have outsized influence on the system just by existing as a viable threat.
I’ve heard stories about elementary and secondary school kids doing worse with online learning this past year, and stories about at-home college kids wanting to get away from their parents. The latter doesn’t tell me much about education.Report
My kid is doing so much better now that he’s back in school. Night and day kinda thing, even just going back part-time/hybrid.Report
Glad to hear it. I sure haven’t heard stories of kids blossoming in Zoom school. I’d add that, just as I said above that it takes a while for a new private university to gain momentum, so also it probably takes a home-schooling parent a while to get their footing. The most successful home-schoolers I know have a group of families they associate with. That’d take a while to develop under normal conditions, even without covid fear.Report
My oldest did very well online. She’s ambivalent about being back. Middle child could do either – he does somewhat better in the class room on actual work but loved the freedom to read or go shoot his bow or go running in the morning with his mom. youngest (6.5) hates it, primarily because he used to do a weeks worth of work in a single day and now has to wear shirts and underwear.
YMMVReport
Same for my niece and nephew.
In-class instruction has serious benefits, and the percentage of people that can learn well from watching videos is…small, if vocal.
If nothing else my wife — who is a teacher — says it’s simply a million times easier to determine who is paying attention, who isn’t, and more critically who doesn’t understand but THINKS they do when it’s in person.
A lot of teaching is reading body language, facial expressions, and tone of voice. You can do that remote if it’s one-to-one, but not when you’re lecturing a class of thirty whom you cannot see.Report
Its worth remembering that, at least in the South, the rise of private education (particularly religiously affiliated private education) coincided with white flight from public education as public school systems desegregated under federal court orders.Report
Why is it worth remembering? Must every flight from the public school system be racially motivated? Is the current one?Report
in many places its always been racially motivated. Heck, several well to do white neighborhoods in south Baton Rouge tried unsuccessfully to break off and form a new city a couple of years ago because residents there (most with kids in private schools) didn’t want to pay property taxes into the predominantly black public school system.
But I bring up the point again ( and will no doubt need to do so ever more often) because too many conservatives think private schools are the bees knees without dealing with the context of the public schools they are meant to replace.Report
A lot of conservatives seem to assume that conservatism is just something of a natural development as one gets older. This seems like a big assumption of facts not in evidence. The problem with saying that Boomers got more conservative as they got older is that Boomers are a large cohort. My parents were born in 1946 and 1947 and are Boomers. They were never conservative and almost never voted Republican. However, people born between 1957-1965 are also boomers, were learning political awareness from Reagan and not Kennedy, did not have parents who remembered the Great Depression/WWII, and tend to be more right-wing.
Likewise, early Gen X (1966-1974) seems to be more conservative than late Gen X (1975-1980). Young people are turned off by social conservatism, came of age during the Great Recession where post-college jobs are dominated by a few industries, and are tired of old economy Steves who do not understand that the cost of college tuition has outstripped inflation and wage growth or refuse to do so. But a lot of the Republicans and conservatives are still of the mantra that “conservatism can’t fail, it can only be failed” and refuse to go along with anything else and are still enthrall of St. Ronnie.
During his second stint as prime minister, a dejected Harold Wilson allegedly complained that he only had the same old solutions to the same old problems. A lot of conservatives seem stuck in this rut now. Maybe it will change but it seems parties need to spend a long time in the wilderness before this does change.*
*I am utterly fascinated by the psychological tendency that makes it impossible for people to admit that they might have minority views. Liberalism was clearly on the outs in the mid-1970s up and until the 1990s or even 2000s. Now conservatism is becoming increasingly unpopular but you can still find plenty of people on the left who refuse to concede that liberalism was unpopular during the 1980s and that conservatism is unpopular and untenable now.Report
There are forms of conservativism that develop as one grows older and finds oneself responsible for others.
“Don’t do that! Somebody will get hurt!”
“Quit it! You’ll regret that in the morning!”
And, of course, “you can’t afford that!”
(And the crazy thing is that most of these scale.)Report
The interesting thing here though is that a lot of liberals (at least the liberals I know) tend to be operationally very cautious and conservative. They are often quiet and bookish people who prefer a nice cup of tea/coffee and a good book over say clubbing until 4 am more often than not. They work very hard at trying to find ways not to harm people.
Now there is a party hard kind of conservatism represented by people like Gaetz.Report
A corollary to you thought here Saul, we all remarked and noticed how the MAGA rallies from the 2016 campaign throughout the Trump administration and including January 6th always seemed full of folks with plenty of disposable income, and wanted to be really loud about having disposable income while hollering about how they were part of the oppressed working class. Boat parades are not cheap thing to participate in. This is of course not universal, social media is full of loud jackasses of all ideological stripes. But to the point though I skirt around it in the piece, the more the “conservatism” label becomes exclusively a culture reactionary thing, not ideological and not even really political in the policy sense, the more it’s going to fester with the MAGAbros as they have been called elsewhere like the Gaetz and other clowns.Report
I can’t find it because it is buried in a blog roll of months past and I am being lazy but Tim Miller wrote about how CPAC 2021 made him realize that conservatism has largely always been about entertaining exurban middle-aged white guys since the 1980s probably.
The thing we are discussing here is that there are very clear gradations of income and class in America that effect social politics. Despite the media falling for “economic anxiety” hook, line, and sinker, the polling evidence showed that Trump’s support mainly came from people with decent to great incomes. However, as Chip noted they tended to be exurban and rural small or medium sized business owners. Local paving contractors and the like. Mr. Put his boot on Pelosi’s desk owned a glazing company in Arkansas. This group wants to spend its discretionary income on party hard stuff. Trump’s living large personality appealed to this crowd in ways that might or might not be hard to emulate.
The social politics of my lifetime have made being an elite not being something about income or power but cultural knowledge. This has accelerated over the past few years and the media tends to fall for it, hook, line, and sinker still. In today’s right-wing universe, the local paving contractor who has the state rep around his finger is not elite but the elite person is the public school teacher or office worker with two or three roommates because he or she knows who Daniel Arsham is. The MAGAbros see such things as wastes of time and act accordingly. They dislike the ultra-rich who act as patrons of the arts. They loved Trump because they seem him as living as close as possible as an old white guy can to being a rock/rap superstar.Report
elite =/= elitistReport
It was this one I think:
To be fair, all of politics — and political media/commentary especially — is aimed at the upper-middle class to functional wealthy classes cause that’s where the donations, views, consumerism, target marketing is aimed at. But I think you are correct, at least I agree from my own experience, that those drawn to Trump’s personality was because they thought of him as the ultimate evolution of themselves if they had the money to do it.Report
Yep. That’s the one.Report
The conversation morphs and twists and we can discuss the extent to which “Conservative” maps with “Republican” and “Liberal” maps with “Democrat”.
The Culture War maps fairly well with the two parties but, once you leave the culture war behind, you find yourself in a weird, weird place. Republicans calling for massive government intervention, Democrats pointing out that corporations can do whatever they want, and other positions that would not have made sense to an earlier generation.
I kinda wish it would slow down.
Alas.Report
The actual liberal position is that corps should have some significant regulations on things like the enviro and labor rights. But since libs in general believe in markets as a good thing then we’ll… That is good.Report
There is a sort of natural small c-conservatism that follows some variety of the below rules:
1. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
2. The current power relationships and way society does things, to the extent that people think
about them and many people do not ever think about them, are fine.
3. My in-group should receive help before the out-group.
None of these three things besides maybe Prong 3 has much to do with current big C American conservatism. Big C American conservatism is more about wanting to do fascist trolls on the out-group rather than any of the above.Report
The Reagan Revolution was when the Republican Party broke with small-c conservatism, and became a revolutionary party.
The Eisenhower Republicans had made their peace with the New Deal. But the Reaganites wanted to dismantle it.
So today the small-c conservatives are Democrats wanting to preserve the traditions of the New Deal.Report
Yeah, it’s always surprising to me to see “conservatives” attack Social Security, for instance. it’s not like they want to tinker a bit with the math, maybe increase the tax rate or decrease the payout a smidge. Oh no, they want to privatize it at best.
That program is what — 80 years old? That sort of change is incredibly radical. It’s not a simple, small change and it’s impacts from everything to overall program goals (reducing elder poverty) to the economic impact (sure, let’s pour trillions into the stock market with well known payout dates, that won’t affect anything!) is gigantic.
What’s conservative about utterly changing a program that’s worked for longer than 95% of America has been alive?Report
I have to ask, do you not know the answer to this question? I mean, I could explain it – most any conservative could – but I have to assume you’re just saying this as a bit of rhetoric. Conversations like this always make me think of Haidt, though, and the fact that liberals don’t understand conservatives as well as conservatives understand liberals. So if you want to, we could discuss the issue.Report
Its not a question, it’s a statement of fact.
There is nothing small-c conservative about radically overhauling Social Security.
You can argue that this is a good or bad thing, necessary or unnecessary.
But it isn’t in any way conservative.Report
Liberals don’t understand conservatives as well as conservatives understand liberals.Report
It’s true. I still can’t imagine how people who claim to be conservative could stomach Trump.Report
Also can’t understand why the party of “religious liberty” would go out of their way to offend a promising constituency like Orthodox Jews.
https://vpm.org/news/articles/21872/virginia-republicans-fail-to-approve-absentee-voting-for-orthodox-jewsReport
“Conservative” has no meaning in America. It’s just another way to say “Republican” and the only static part of the GOP is tax cuts for the rich and corporations.
Everything else is negotiable, and in fact these days at least half of it is Cleek’s law.
I’m sure there’s some impressive apologetics going on to square the circle there. I mean leaving Afghanistan is bad now, right? it was good 4 years ago.Report
Oh, I know the answer you’d give. But I hate seeing the English language tortured.
And I understand conservatives just fine. It’s not that I don’t understand the GOP, or the “conservatives” in it. I understand them fine.
I also realize they’ll never believe it. How could anyone disagree with them?Report
Again, Haidt would point out that the difficulty in understanding another’s viewpoint is more a characteristic of the modern left than the modern right.Report
I actually think it’s a strong example of the disconnect between dying-breed Reganism and what actual rank and file GOP voters want. There were some echoes of 2005 in Trump’s failure to repeal and replace the ACA. Now I believe Bush actually believed in what he was pushing but the effort cracked the coalition and was a massive failure.
So maybe my counterpoint on the Haidt comment is, are you sure Conservatives are as good at understanding the viewpoints of conservatives as you think they are? I would say that one of the 3 or 4 critical developments over the last ~20 odd years is the mounting evidence that they don’t.Report
I’m sure I was venting a little at all the libsplaining (new word: liberals explaining to conservatives what conservatives think). And I’d agree somewhat with your point. Populist conservatism has gotten a lot of attention in the past few years, and it’s certainly a different strain of conservatism.
Now, I’m not a populist. I’m an INTJ, and I tend to equate passion with stupidity. I probably will always underrate populism as a force. I think populism is as dangerous unchecked as elitism. The best possible check against both is humility.Report
So maybe my counterpoint on the Haidt comment is, are you sure Conservatives are as good at understanding the viewpoints of conservatives as you think they are?
This is an excellent observation, especially (as you point out) given the disconnect between conservative voters polled preferences and the policies supported/enacted by the GOP over the last several deacdes. Good comment!Report
I’m not buying it – because even though the politicians are failing miserably to deliver on the things the base really really wants, the base keeps sending them back. Every once in a while a new sheriff runs to town, but usually only after someone dies or retires.Report
That they keep voting the same Repblicans into office *despite* those politicians not furthering their preferred policies is an indication that they don’t understand their own views, right? Seems to me that the foremost ideological commitment of (contemporary) conservatives is to oppose liberals and Democrats. That alone answers a bunch of questions about retail politics and so on, but doesn’t provide any insight into how well they understand each others policy priorities or worldviews.
Look, I’ll defer to people like Pinky and Marchmaine for a better analysis here, but it seems pretty clear to me at a first pass that conservatives *themselves* confuse opposition to Democrats and liberals with a deep understanding of their own viewpoints. It’s something they probably all share, so it’s only in that sense that they understand each other.Report
Haidt’s work was specifically on the moral beliefs and foundations of these groups — it doesn’t map terribly well to politics, though it’s good food for thought.
Basically the idea is that liberals operate with two moral “foundations” or axes, “care/harm” and “fairness/unfairness”. Conservatives have those but also a few others. So when trying to explain a different moral decision being made by someone “on the other side”, conservatives are more apt to recognize the moral underpinnings of liberals’ decisions than vice versa, because the moral foundations being applied by liberals are familiar to them even if they disagree with the weighting; whereas liberals may not recognize the other moral axes at work in conservatives’ moral decisions and are more likely to misinterpret their motivations.Report
Haidt’s theory of moral foundations has merit, but he himself seems unable to understand either conservatives or liberals.
Where is the evidence that liberals for example, don’t value loyalty to the group as strongly as conservatives?
Or that conservatives have a higher degree of respect for authority?
Notice how the historic claim to patriotism and respect for law enforcement fades when the topic is Russian meddling in our elections, or when the police powers of a regulatory agency like OSHA or EPA becomes bothersome to them.
When I read Haidt’s book I was struck by how much his grasp of “liberal” and “conservative” seemed fixed in 1972 or so, where the “liberal” would be a long haired hippie and “conservative” a crew cut construction worker.Report
TL:DR – Haidt is not relevant to the modern conversation because he can’t account for societal shifts.Report
I don’t think Haidt’s analysis answers InMD’s implied question, though, since his observation isn’t that (say) liberals are better at understaning conservatives, but that conservatives don’t understand themselves. Haidt’s analysis apparently takes it as a given that, desite a few more moral axes than liberals possess, the majority (??) of conservatives actually think along *all* those axes. Or, alternately, It may be that because they have so many moral axes which inform their world views there isn’t much overlap between sub-groups?
I (obvs) don’tknow.Report
Because he wants to make some sort of essentialist argument: Liberals think like beep-beep while conservatives think like toot-toot.
In 1972 it would have been easy to believe that conservatives generally favor authority.
But as it turned out, that was only because they controlled all the authority- college administration, law enforcement, business, churches- they were all safely in the hands of (cultural) conservatives.
But flash forward a few years when they lose control of some authority center- like a college administration, or government agencies like BLM or EPA.
Think of how often conservatives relish their role as outside insurrectionists, battling the authority figure.
And think of how often during the pandemic conservatives used the language and logic of radical individualism to like, do their own thing man, without being hassled by The Man, man.
What’s notable is that someone could easily write the same about liberals, how we demand compliance to environmental laws here, but demand abolition of drug laws there.
Which means that the moral foundations theory can’t account for how we assign different meanings to create different foundations.
Both sides demand loyalty to authority; we just disagree as to what that authority is.Report
I don’t find Haidt infallible. I’ve raised some of the questions being discussed here before. I bring him up because he researched this particular thing that’s happening on this thread, liberals explaining how conservatives think, and found that they were twice as likely to fail as conservative explaining how liberals think. If we follow the social science, we should be automatically suspicious of any of the analysis on this thread.Report
Well, correct or not, IIRC his research was very specific to moral questions and intuitions, so I don’t know how applicable it is here, where we’re mostly talking about politics and not morality. Political partisans in general are lousy at understanding people on the other side (but also are not very open to being told that they don’t understand them).Report
As I understand it, the subjects were asked to self-identify as conservatives / moderates / liberals. Would people do that on the basis of their morality or philosophy? No, they would identify themselves on a political basis.Report
The moment has probably passed now, but what I was aiming at was that a person’s beliefs about morality outside the context of politics are a relatively small part of their political/voting decisions, so the advantage that conservatives have over liberals in understanding their answers to moral questions probably doesn’t translate to much of an advantage in understanding their political decisions and motivations.
Relatedly, I imagine that most people who happily voted for Romney in 2012 and then for Trump in 2016/2020 didn’t change any of their underlying moral beliefs and would answer Haidt’s survey questions exactly the same now or 10 years ago.Report
For most people, there comes an age when change is no longer their friend. Learning new stuff gets more difficult, and eventually it’s really hard. There’s a lot of fear involved with that, and I’ve noticed among people my age that some of that is simply fear of doing something embarrassing because they don’t remember which rules have changed. No one sets out with intent to experience cognitive decline. But it happens, and it happens sooner than people realize.Report
It does not matter. Since those of traditional college age are the least white group to ever attend college, those college students can see that there is no future for conservative politics in the U.S. Those college students see that anyone who challenges the view of blacks will immediately be labeled a racist and lose educational and occupational opportunities.
Most of the college students will be quite happy to live in a one party state with very limit range of policy proposals because most of them attend universities with almost no diversity of thought. Most of the college students will learn to mouth the acceptable political opinion while keeping the reasoning behind their own personal decisions secret.Report
“Much like the parent who preaches one thing to a child while living another, watching an ideology proclaim one thing while doing something else is going to leave an indelible impression. An impression that no appeal to policy, culture, or tradition is going to overcome.”
The real problem here is this.
What is conservativism today?
Not *who*, *what*.
Because I cannot construct even the remotest link to what conservatives used to say conservativism was, and any of the people who are conservative figures.
Like. Who?
Probably the closest thing you’ve got is Mitt Romney? And he’s both reasonably classically conservative and folks like him represent less than 2% of elected allegedly-conservative folks in the GOP. JD Vance? He’s on the fast-track to crazytown trying to appeal to primary voters.
Asking why the kids these days aren’t conservatives kinda elides over the outstanding problem that IDK what it is, and neither do they.Report
Conservatism today is largely about owning the libs (especially upper-middle class professional liberals) and trolling in ways that amuses exurban middle-aged or older white guys. The reason people like Gaetz are rising stars because conservatism as adopted a kind of Epartier Le Bourgeois attitude and his party hard frat boyism is perceived as doing that. But there are still lots of people like Dreher who melt down at the new social liberalism of corporations.
The problem is that a lot of younger conservatives are also hooked on “owning the libs” above all else.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/scaachikoul/california-college-republicans-milo-yiannopoulos-donald
I don’t always agree with the Bulwark but it is trying to present a version of conservatism that is more than about owning the libs. Unfortunately by doing this, many of them seem to becoming moderate Democrats whether they realize it or not. JD Vance used to be merely smug and annoying. Same with Tucker Carlson but both are either showing true colors that always existed or see the future of being a GOP star is pure Trumpian race-baiting.*
*FWIW I think they are showing true colors that always existed and their bigoted hearts. JD Vance probably always hated Jews and Tucker’s senior year book was recently unearthed. Tucker belonged to the Jesse Helms Foundation and the Dan White Society in high school according to the year book.Report
Agree. There are conservatives out there who are really trying to hash out an intellectual position on what it means to be conservative, but they are eclipsed by the conservative grift chattering classes who offer up entertainment that doesn’t require any kind of philosophical grappling.Report
In other news, apparently coal miners are now in favor of retraining for green energy jobs. (Not kidding).
I wonder what changed between 2016 when that was a hellacious liberal plot by the evil Clinton who was faced by The Lord’s chose Donald “Coal will come back big time folks!” Trump?Report
That’s one of those little deals that’s actually a pretty big deal. I give those guys a lot of credit for making the change. Not sure why you want to beat dead horses at this point, though. Clinton insulted them; Trump pandered to them. Pretty simple, really. Now they’re on the right side of economic trends and better positioned to ensure that they have good paying jobs in the future.Report
Clinton told them the truth. Coal was dying. Trump told them a lie — it would all be great again, just like it was.
It says a lot if you think “being told the truth” is “insulting”.
I find being lied to insulting, but I guess tastes vary?
In any case, watching them come around just reminds me how easy it is to con people. It took four years of not getting their coal renaissance — in fact, being entirely ignored after getting treated like the sole important demographic in America — to make a small group of them say “Okay…maybe this isn’t going to happen”
Four years.
No wonder Trump made hundreds of millions off these folks in just three months of Kraken BS.Report
Clinton laughed and said “we’re gonna put a lotta coal miners outa work!”Report
I was a big HRC fan and still thing she’d have made a fine Presidential candidate but she was utterly tin eared on this one and there’s no sugar coating that. One can console themselves by saying what HRC said was more fundamentally honest than what Trump said, but that doesn’t change that it was political malpractice.Report
Reality may not have a liberal bias, but it doesn’t have a conservative one either.Report
I am not surprised. It’s taking a while, but Wyoming and Montana are figuring out that their customers want a lot less coal, and a lot less coal-fired electricity, but there’s a potentially huge market for them to sell electricity generated from their excellent wind resources.
I am concerned about what will happen when the Appalachian miners understand that there’s a limited set of green energy jobs that are best done in Appalachia.Report
No pause for reflection after your finger-on-the-pulse trial predictions?Report
>It is also apparent that a thriving business of political organizations focused on “making young conservatives” while eliciting fundraising from full grown and well-heeled conservatives is part of the mix as well. There is a lot of lather, rinse, repeat to this constant push to reach, recruit, and retain young conservatives.
As long as conservative elites want to hash out their political insecurities vicariously through college students as they have been with organizations like this, of course young people won’t be shepherded well into the movement.
But if conservatives would create organizations and institutions for young people that address the issues *they actually care about*, rather than the issues the Boomer and Gen X conservatives who failed to raise them want to fight about.Report
forgot to add “, they might be successful.”Report
They might be, but they are not making that choice.Report
” Gen X conservatives”
Man, I’m Gen X and I can assure you we’re in charge of nothing and no one. The Boomers won’t let go, and by the time they finally have power dragged from their cold, dead hands — we’ll be so old it’ll all go to Gen Y, because it’s time for a “new perspective”.
We’re too small, this weird, transitional generation of no importance.
We had some good music though.Report
Well, of no importance unless we are needed to take sides in some culture war battle.Report
I think you misspelled “blame”.
Weirdly though, it’s hilarious listening to the crap people say about Millennials because I remember the exact same phrases being thrown around about Gen X. They just updated the language a bit.
Pity that by the time I start moaning about the kids these days, I’ll have forgotten that little insight.Report
Well, we do have a Vice President finally.Report
Honestly, I’m happier we have a female VP.
I’m Gen X. We don’t even have solidarity with ourselves. 🙂Report
The Boomers won’t let go…
Quick. List the people from the heart of the Boomer years, 1948-1962, who have been President, VP, Speaker of the House, or majority leader of the Senate. List the ones who have a realistic shot at any those positions in the future. List the Boomers who have controlled the media industries. Which ones are running the tech companies everyone is terrified of?Report
I guess you’re right, Biden and Pelosi and McConnell are technically not Baby Boomers.Report
Eric Schmidt (formerly of Google) and Tim Cook are the only tech guys I can find who fits. Bezos is close (1964).
Obama was a boomer, born in 1961, (or 1442 in his native Indonesia), and he’ll be president again once Kamala appoints him as VP and resignsReport
Also John Boehner, ’49. Our time as political leaders is past; there won’t be anyone from the 50s decade that fills any of those positions. When both sides figure out how to get rid of the octogenarians, Boomers aren’t going to take over. The formative Boomer political events run from — for white folks — the Summer of Love to (your choice) Nixon’s resignation or the fall of Saigon. For people of color, the bloody mid-60s. Obama was f*cking fourteen when Saigon fell. He has no idea about choosing between getting sent to die in a jungle for nothing, some form of running, or simply lucking out in the lottery.
I concede an absurdly outsized position in pop music. I am willing to argue that was as much a specific confluence of technologies as talent.
Boomers: the generation of middle management, not leadership.Report
Music was the 130-year cycle:
1680s: Bach, Handel, Vivaldi, Scarlatti, Telemann, Rameau, …
1810s: Verdi, Wagner, Chopin, Liszt, Schumann, Mendelsohn, …
1940s: Dylan, Lennon, McCartney, Townshend, Davies, Wilson, Simon. Mitchell, …Report
2070: North West Beiber Jr.Report
Sure, that’s right. If conservatives created organizations and institutions that address issues of concern to young people, a certain number of them will gravitate towards those organizations and those conservative young people will become conservative adults. Yes.
The fundamental problem with this idea is conservatism today is not about creating organizations and institutions, or even about propping up and supporting the ones that exist already. After Trump, what’s called “conservatism” is very much about tearing down anything that displeases Trump, whether that be a major corporation like Apple or a governmental institution like the Post Office or a social norm like Presidents and their families not endorsing products in exchange for political donates or a legal norm like not inciting riots to disrupt the counting of Electoral votes.
Conservatives don’t address their own identity by asking “what do we stand for?” anymore; they instead as “who do we stand for?” and the answer, apparently, is Donald Trump.
They can identify “what do we stand AGAINST?” and that is a pretty long list of things. Especially using the OP’s suggested lens of focusing on what they are actually doing rather than the words they are using to describe themselves, we can see:
• They are against taxes, especially for rich people and corporations. But in practice they don’t care about deficits, despite loudly claiming to whenever a Democrat is in the White House.
• They are against doing anything about restricting access to even the deadliest of guns to even the most obviously dangerous kinds of people.
• They are against immigration. Legal, illegal, doesn’t matter. They’re against people coming to the US.
• They are against doing anything about climate change. They are against protecting the environment.
• They are against police accountability for, it seems, basically anything.
• They are against trans people and at least a sizeable number of them are still against gay people, often under the IMO transparent tissue of “religious freedom.”
• Related to the above, they are against multiculturalism.
• They are against more polling places, against making registering to vote easier, against voting by mail, and against giving people waiting in line to vote bottles of water to make the standing in line a bit easier.
• The ones who are in office are against legalizing marijuana.
• They are against masks and social distancing and other preventative measures regarding COVID, and if you look just under the surface of the rhetoric, are not real keen on vaccines.
• They’re definitely against Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and AOC. But those are people, not policies, not ideas.
How much of that is really true? I think this is what young people see. They see a party that says “no” to everything, offers no real ideas of its own, unconditionally supports an obviously corrupt and mendacious family of wealthy, ill-behaved people as though they were Royals, and claims to be about strengthening institutions while in practice working quite aggressively to tear them down.
No wonder young people aren’t flocking to sign up.Report
One thing to note: Donald Trump was against vote-by-mail, but for absentee ballots.
Donald Trump was against vote by mail, but voted absentee. And the GOP went along with it.
I mean a certain amount of two-faced hypocrisy is inevitable in politics (when your job is striking deals, you end up having to pick and choose priorities if you wan to get anything done), but it’s like the last four years was a caricature.
Months of “we’ll have an infrastructure bill in two weeks” — was like someone took years of “repeal and replace” and made sure there was no way to misunderstand that there was no “replace”.
Like if you had written a TV episode in which the President went on and on about the evils of voting by mail and how it should be outlawed, then voted absentee and explained that was somehow DIFFERENT — people would assume you were writing Idiocracy 2.0, not a drama.
Donald Trump managed to tear gas Priests standing in their own church, in order to use that church for a photo-op.
There’s nothing to hide behind. No passage of time to make the hypocrisy or self-service fade into the background, no complexities to throw up smoke screens. it’s literally like the GOP went out and had a contest to see who could make themselves look the worst to anyone under, oh, 50 that wasn’t a true believer.
And then ended with an insurrection.
Honestly, it’s like a cancer metastasized. From Mitt Romney to…this….in 8 years.Report
Phillip’s last paragraphs really get at it, that its difficult to imagine what “problems” conservatism is intended to solve, much less why those solutions would seem attractive to anyone who isn’t an medium sized business owner in a small town.
Especially when you get past the boilerplate bromides and look at what bills and laws are actually proposed and enacted by conservatives; Abortion bans, guns everywhere, protection of abusive cops and everything possible to make life painful for immigrants.
Making healthcare easier? Nah.
Making college easier? Meh.
Raising wages? A big negatory on that one.Report
I think you mean more affordable for college presumably. But yeah, conservatism is now about playing to the resentments of exurban and rural white dudes.Report
I think the belief that “people get more conservative as they get older” is, frankly, a bunch of BS. It’s not some inevitable trend, some true fact of history.
I think the belief persists in America for two reasons — first, the Boomers are a freaking black hole on politics, whose sheer mass distorts everything. Whatever they do seems so much more universal — and they were the ones who finished the massive realignment between Democrats and Republicans. It started way back in the 60s and finally ended in the 80s.
Boomers aside, I suspect the primary reason is simply as they age, people get pretty solidified in their views and it takes a lot to shake them. Eventually I’m not going to adapt or change as fast as the next generation, so I’ll get more and more conservative — but only relative to cultural shift.
I won’t suddenly be against gay marriage or against a progressive tax regime or hate minimum wages. I’m not going to suddenly regress. I’ll just be more conservative than my kids, simply because I no longer change as fast or as comfortably. But I’ll still be real darn liberal compared to, say, today’s average GOP voter.
And if the GOP is hoping that if they just stay mostly the same, I’ll suddenly switch to their party when I hit 55 or something — jesus, they’re smoking the good stuff. That doesn’t even get INTO the damage they’ve done to their brand over the last two decades, which is another huge hurdle.
Bluntly put, the GOP is going to have to change — and they haven’t changed since Reagan, except to add gay and trans bashing to their platform, and lately decide that dog whistles aren’t good enough. If anything, they’ve gotten more reactionary — Reagan and Bush Senior at least adapted to reality when reality refused to conform to their politics.
I mean do they think gay and trans bashing is going to come back into style? That today’s kids are going to be receptive to that as they age? Or that the open racism is gonna play well? The GOP isn’t even standing still, they seem to be regressing to a pre-CRA era as they chase an ever more and more tiny base.Report
The ‘conservative’ when you get older comes from two things –
1) A Churchill quote
2).A misunderstanding of the 60’s youth
On point 2, most kids in the 60’s weren’t hippies. Hell, the youth were the most pro-Vietnam demographic and even though they voted more for McGovern than the normal population, it wasn’t some insane left-wing bias.
So, when the Boomers voted GOP in the late 70’s and 80’s, people took the wrong idea from it, and the GOP didn’t seem to care when after basically every demo group being 50-50 in 2000 (seriously, look at exit polls in that election), the youth vote went sharply left in ’04 and has only continuedReport
The thing you have to understand about the Churchill quote is that its Churchill’s defense for being an inveterate party switcher.Report
The more accurate reality is that people tend to have the same politics through their lives. Plus you are right about the Boomers. The Greatest Generation largely remained loyal Democrats. Bill Clinton’s best demographic was always 60 plus.Report
“Truths turn into dogmas the instant that they are disputed. Thus every man who utters a doubt defines a religion. And the scepticism of our time does not really destroy the beliefs, rather it creates them; gives them their limits and their plain and defiant shape. We who are Liberals once held Liberalism lightly as a truism. Now it has been disputed, and we hold it fiercely as a faith. We who believe in patriotism once thought patriotism to be reasonable, and thought little more about it. Now we know it to be unreasonable, and know it to be right. We who are Christians never knew the great philosophic common sense which inheres in that mystery until the anti-Christian writers pointed it out to us. The great march of mental destruction will go on. Everything will be denied. Everything will become a creed. It is a reasonable position to deny the stones in the street; it will be a religious dogma to assert them. It is a rational thesis that we are all in a dream; it will be a mystical sanity to say that we are all awake. Fires will be kindled to testify that two and two make four. Swords will be drawn to prove that leaves are green in summer. We shall be left defending, not only the incredible virtues and sanities of human life, but something more incredible still, this huge impossible universe which stares us in the face. We shall fight for visible prodigies as if they were invisible. We shall look on the impossible grass and the skies with a strange courage. We shall be of those who have seen and yet have believed.” – GK ChestertonReport
I think the original article and the comments encapsulates the issue pretty thoroughly: Conservativism has indulged decades of naked hypocrisy on the part of its public standard bearers both political and cultural. Conservativism is divided against itself with its leadership and thought elite believing and seeking things that’re virtually the opposite of what its voting masses believe and seek.
It’s not hard to see how those challenges would make is hard for conservativism to appeal to political newcomers. FFS a kid turning 21 today knows of only 2 Republican Presidents- Trump and Bush W. The former has been a dumpster fire and the latter is faded in their memories and was a genial idiot who instituted policies ruinous to the country and ushered in the Great Recession.
And when you drill down to Senate or Congressional politics the picture gets even bleaker!Report
And things will get way worse before they get better: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/21/us/politics/republican-anti-protest-laws.html
“Republican legislators in Oklahoma and Iowa have passed bills granting immunity to drivers whose vehicles strike and injure protesters in public streets.
A Republican proposal in Indiana would bar anyone convicted of unlawful assembly from holding state employment, including elected office. A Minnesota bill would prohibit those convicted of unlawful protesting from receiving student loans, unemployment benefits or housing assistance.
And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed sweeping legislation this week that toughened existing laws governing public disorder and created a harsh new level of infractions — a bill he’s called ‘the strongest anti-looting, anti-rioting, pro-law-enforcement piece of legislation in the country.'”Report
I guess only the “right” kind of people should be allowed to protest, just like only “quality” people should be allowed to vote.Report
Oh I wasn’t speaking about the political efficacy of the right, just their current state of affairs in terms of being able to steer their coalition. Negative politics is potent stuff right now on both sides and the internet has obliterated both sides abilities to lower the temperature of the discourse even if they wanted to. Biden and his team have run things pretty low profile, for instance, but the right can simply go around them and find limitless incendiary things from lefty twitter, Acadamia and journalist rags to feed as grist into their hate mill.Report
Yeah those are all real things and symptoms of the division within Conservativism. They’re divided and dependent on villainizing others to try and keep their rickety coalition together.
Angst against liberals can keep them together, but it can’t give them the ability to change course or mediate conflicting desires within their coalition. There isn’t a conservative elite that can tell socialcons “Dudes, we’ve lost on gays, but if you let us yank the homophobic stuff out of the platform we can dig new trenches on religious liberty grounds”. Likewise their masses can’t say “We don’t like the way employers use immigration to undercut wages and working conditions, go after the employers.” to their elites.Report
It is very cute to read people who believe that there is something that conservatives can do to attract more voters. Every policy proposal that can be used to reach swing votes or moderate white Democrats will immediately be called racist by the Democrats. If tax policy is racist, then there is nothing any conservative can do to attract more voters.
Those conservatives on campus know that if they let other know they are conservative, the will automatically be called a racist, sexist, homophobe, and xenophobic. Anyone interested in politics must realize that the only way to have a career in politics is to be a liberal Democrat.Report
” Every policy proposal that can be used to reach swing votes or moderate WHITE Democrats will immediately be called racist… ”
Yeah. A mystery, that.Report
Welcome back George Turner!Report
But the game is iterated.
This results in segregated schools in the most progressive parts of the country and the police shooting black children in democratic-controlled cities and the cops saying “Blue Lives Matter” on camera and the police having their budgets cut for two or three months before having them reinstated.
The believers will, eventually, learn that people who change their public opinions quickly for clout have different kinds of things that they’re paying attention to than they, themselves, are.Report
yeah this would be same as saying there’s nothing liberals can do to attract more voters because every policy proposal they have is called socialism. Oddly they still manage to reach more voters.Report
Liberals have an unfair advantage.
They are happy to solicit voters of any demographic, whereas conservatives are restricted to only white rural male Christian voters.
You san see the unfairness of this.Report
What’s so weird is, post Trump, there definitely seems to be a genuine window of opportunity for the right in minority communities.Report
Small-c conservatism?
Sure. Biden proves that.
Conservatism? No, not at all because big-C Conservatism today is entirely a white male grievance project.Report
Eh. It’s like when we talk about “why aren’t there movies that present conservative values”, and someone asks what are the conservative values you’d see in a movie, and someone else suggests a list, and the reply is “oh well those aren’t conservative values, they’re just values“.
There’s no “young conservative movement” because anything that isn’t racist transphobia gets declared “not actually conservative”.Report
When I am hearing a black law school professor claim that the individual deduction for a stay at home mom is racist, then anything that would be conservative will be called racist.Report
One of the things I observed with people who were on the further left than me in the 90s was a stoically gloom and doom attitude- they believed they were doing the right thing, even though they knew it would fail. America, after all, was irredeemably racist, sexist, etc. You saw it especially with old hippies.
It turned me off then and it turns me off hearing the same sort of thing from my MAGA mama. She talks often about how everything in America has gone to hell and, even when she was happy about Trump back four years ago, I’d ask her what he was going to do that she was looking forward to- and you know it was sticking it to the illegal immigrants and sticking it to the liberal democrats and sticking it to China and all of the usual suspects. But I’d say “Yeah, now what’s going to do that will objectively make y’all’s lives better?”
At any rate, what I notice with the Republicans is there’s not a lot of joy there, or not much expression of joy, and if you want to attract people, sometimes you need to use more carrot than stick.Report
As I once Twitter replied to Will, “Republicans took all the wrong lessons from Reagan.”Report
I always think of the classic Bloom County comic strip from 1983 where the Democrat characters are complaining about how hard it is to bring down Reagan.
https://www.gocomics.com/bloomcounty/1983/08/07
“The worst, the most scurrilous part of it is the man is so… so… nice.”
“yeah.”
“a peach.”
“Impeach the peach!!”Report
God(ess?)! Bloom County was gold!Report
It was such a great strip. I still wear my 30+ year old “Don’t Blame Me. I Voted for Bill and Opus” tee-shirt after every election.Report
My Father was a great fan, he had a couple of the comic book collections when I was a teenager in the 90’s and I read them obsessively. They are undoubtably one of my on-ramps to the world of politics and also profoundly shaped my sense of humor.Report
Berke Breathed is a transphobe, and so are you if you like anything he ever did.Report
I question the judgment of anyone who couldn’t tell he was Syltherin from the early days.Report
Yeah you can see the raging transphobia in his more recent works:
https://www.gocomics.com/bloom-county/2016/04/07?comments=visible#commentsReport
“The most important thing is electing Republicans. The best way to do that is to stop Democrats from voting.”Report
Let’s look at Tucker’s high school year book and wonder why he does not appeal to today’s youth: https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1384882691838025732?s=20Report
The Dan White Society? Jesus.Report
And yet any of today’s youth who say “maybe I’m conservative” will be asked why they fully support and agree with Tucker Carlson.Report