...but more seriously the nice thing about programming it is that it has both sides of the bed - so my wife has it set to 'bake a potato' and I have it set to, put some warm embers under the covers so my delicate skin doesn't touch unheated cotton.
Not sure where you're going with this. This is true of every election in my lifetime... there's nothing new to infer about 'missing voters' that isn't also an event of similar or greater magnitude in every other election.
Perplexity AI:
Here are the voter turnout statistics for each presidential election since 2000, including the most recent 2024 election:
2000: 105,594,024 votes cast, 52.1% of voting-age population (VAP) turnout4
2004: 122,349,480 votes cast, 56.7% of VAP turnout4
2008: 131,406,895 votes cast, 58.3% of VAP turnout4
2012: 129,139,997 votes cast, 54.9% of VAP turnout4
2016: 136,787,187 votes cast, 55.7% of VAP turnout4
2020: 158,481,688 votes cast, 62.8% of VAP turnout4
2024: 156,302,318 votes cast, 63.9% of VEP turnout1*
*VEP for 2020 was 65.3%
And, as far as I can tell, it's about 84M eligible population didn't vote - which is surprisingly consistent raw number since the 80s.
We have a mix of casements and double-hung (originally to manage cost), and I can say with the existential metaphysical certainty of 20-yrs living with both, I'll never buy another double-hung window ever. I dream of replacing all of them.
But really, my new home fetish is now ICF; Lady Marchmaine and I have looked at building an ICF cottage on the property... but is seems we're not actually sitting on Scrooge McDuck piles of gold. The cost of building -- and this is me, who signed a contract to build this house in 2006... the actual literal peak of the previous boom -- is beyond outrageous. Still, I covet those 12 inch cement walls with passive heating/cooling and sound proofing (but we live next to a train).
Sort of... but it's Day 4. Let's assess at days 50 and 100.
At this point on the Football analogy, they are moving the ball against a defense that isn't prepared, but no points on the board. These are the easy yards. And we've yet to see what happens when a third team crashes the game.
Our newish house built less than 20-yrs ago is probably only really specced to handle weather in the 20s.... which here in the Valley is about right. But, when the weather dips into the aughts it struggles to keep up. Little things start to malfunction; 'hey, is that draft from the window? never noticed that before,' 'who thought these high ceilings were a good idea?' a laundry room pipe freezes (it's unfrozen now), and the upstairs HVAC in the unheated attic crawl space (counter-intuitively) fails to ignite so we wake-up to indoor temps in the 50s. Not catastrophic or anything (yet), but you can feel the house complaining about the lack of foresight. We need things back in the 30s as God intended for Virginia.
This weekend is a do-nothing weekend after last week's Daughter #1 wedding. We're people'd out.
Here's my current take on this. Unlike 2016 he has a team that has (let's say) a 100-day plan... a little bit like the scripted plays a football team can use to open a game.
Continuing the football analogy, the real question is how he reacts if a) the scripted plays stop working, and b) what does he do when they are over. And, unlike football, what happens when some outside event intrudes.
I joke that Suzie Wiles is the chewing gum, baling twine and duct tape of the administration... but I'll also add that while I've seen a lot on the conservative side go cynical on Trump, they figured out how his game is played and are currently trying to further their agenda 'as if' it were a Trump agenda. Here I'm not talking about Performative Congress critters, but donors and policy lobbyists.
In that sense 2024 is different from 2016, the question in my mind is how 2026 will differ from 2018.
Ultimately Trump is unreliable and untrustworthy... so it will end badly for some of those folks; but, some will get what they wanted.
New conspiracy theory... it's just the Warren Commission report and supporting documents. The good stuff was obviously not used for the Warren report and is still hidden in a secret location.
Good point... never underestimate Trump's complete ambivalence about legislating for the future.
But, there's only so far the administration can go with EO's and Reconciliation. But yeah, extending Trump's tax cuts and a few other financial goodies will likely just be some sort of omnibus reconciliation.
However, if they want transformative Immigration Policy, they are going to have to legislate it.
Given the right odds, I'd take the bet that they are willing to Nuke the filibuster.
Agreed. I'd focus on the dozen or so folks who were convicted of Seditious Conspiracy.
That's a pretty solid case for High Crime.
As for order of impeachments? I'd do Biden first because that might actually have the votes, and the goal is to set the precedent that some Pardons can be considered High Crimes, even if the 'Presidential Act' is formally correct.
After that, as long as the opposition can avoid the big dramatic 'impeach the electorate' types of things and just stay focused on narrow aspects... sure, consider it staking a position for future use.
Once we're done talking about the EO's -- which have a 4-yr expiration date -- what do we think the One Legislative Push for his term will be?
Could be an Immigration Package that will be more Right than Left ... and will see a lot of Left crossover votes to just stop the bleeding.
But, and this is my genuine question, don't we kinda think he's going to do some sort of Tax/Finance bill that will benefit him and the Tech Sector? Surely extending the Trump Tax bill which was set to expire this year (which he assumed would be after his Presidency) plus whatever else his Libertarian, sorry Team Grey advisors want?
I know, right? And once you get over the shock of the thing and count the costs, you realize the cost is $0... what's Biden going to do, complain about being excluded from running for President again in 4-years? Hope Historians can save his reputation on the Presidential Ranking Chart?
We can all agree that one of the problems with Congress is that it is fundamentally driven by short-term tactical decision making - esp. at the individual level. That's a political reality that requires leadership to overcome for strategic objectives. Every political failing/weakness is an opportunity for some group that wants to take it.
None of this is relevant to a throw-away line I kinda wish I'd dropped.
It's not, I guess, an obvious point, so I'll make it obvious: the thing that's broken in the Republic isn't the Presidency, its the Congress.
The check on Presidents abusing their Pardon power isn't some DA in Biloxi, MS or even the SCOTUS, it's Congress impeaching the President for that abuse. That's the primary reason (secondary is political/comms) Presidents exercise their Dodgy Pardons on their last day... the way the Impeachment Process works in the Constitution requires (too long) a runway for Congress to react.
I'd recommend Dems draft *narrow and targeted* (if they are constitutionally able) articles of impeachment to signal that the improper use of the Pardon Power is a High Crime. Sure, it won't get the votes on Trump right now.
But, if you really want to do politics well (tm) Dems should draft articles of impeachment on Biden's pardons and see if they can bait Rs into impeaching Biden for the feels and (perhaps) opening up the pathway to SCOTUS to rule on the constitutionality of types of pardons -- plus proving you can impeach Presidents for Presidential Acts, even if they have left office.
Sometimes you eat an L (impeaching a DEM) to iterate a future W.
Trump pardoning the Silk Road guy is, I think, the direction his Administration is going. Team Grey social and economic policies... everything else yadda yadda evangelicals and Christian Nationalists - pure smoke screen.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Was Last Year This Cold?”
Sir, it has bluetooth.
...but more seriously the nice thing about programming it is that it has both sides of the bed - so my wife has it set to 'bake a potato' and I have it set to, put some warm embers under the covers so my delicate skin doesn't touch unheated cotton.
Can't do *that* with a single plug.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/20/2025”
Compared to smoking? And as a transition out of smoking? Huge win.
"
Not sure where you're going with this. This is true of every election in my lifetime... there's nothing new to infer about 'missing voters' that isn't also an event of similar or greater magnitude in every other election.
Perplexity AI:
Here are the voter turnout statistics for each presidential election since 2000, including the most recent 2024 election:
2000: 105,594,024 votes cast, 52.1% of voting-age population (VAP) turnout4
2004: 122,349,480 votes cast, 56.7% of VAP turnout4
2008: 131,406,895 votes cast, 58.3% of VAP turnout4
2012: 129,139,997 votes cast, 54.9% of VAP turnout4
2016: 136,787,187 votes cast, 55.7% of VAP turnout4
2020: 158,481,688 votes cast, 62.8% of VAP turnout4
2024: 156,302,318 votes cast, 63.9% of VEP turnout1*
*VEP for 2020 was 65.3%
And, as far as I can tell, it's about 84M eligible population didn't vote - which is surprisingly consistent raw number since the 80s.
Supporting docs: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/voter-turnout-in-presidential-elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections?
"
Boom! Easy 15 yds with linebacker mismatch on slot receiver.
Next, quick slant to Will Truman for 10 and and new set of downs as they remove the restrictions around vaping so people smoke less.
"
That's what I said about POE2... just make a better POE1. But no, we have a VISION (tm)
Plus, I thought everyone had already realized that Mobile gaming is dead and solely the preserve of gacha crack games.
All those hours wasted on AAA mobile titles... Diablo! On your phone! crickets.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Was Last Year This Cold?”
5 words: wifi enabled heated mattress pad.
Two different sides, programmable to turn on before you go to bed and turns off so you don't wake up in a pool of sweat.
"
Replacing windows is such a rush.
We have a mix of casements and double-hung (originally to manage cost), and I can say with the existential metaphysical certainty of 20-yrs living with both, I'll never buy another double-hung window ever. I dream of replacing all of them.
But really, my new home fetish is now ICF; Lady Marchmaine and I have looked at building an ICF cottage on the property... but is seems we're not actually sitting on Scrooge McDuck piles of gold. The cost of building -- and this is me, who signed a contract to build this house in 2006... the actual literal peak of the previous boom -- is beyond outrageous. Still, I covet those 12 inch cement walls with passive heating/cooling and sound proofing (but we live next to a train).
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/20/2025”
Sort of... but it's Day 4. Let's assess at days 50 and 100.
At this point on the Football analogy, they are moving the ball against a defense that isn't prepared, but no points on the board. These are the easy yards. And we've yet to see what happens when a third team crashes the game.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Was Last Year This Cold?”
Our newish house built less than 20-yrs ago is probably only really specced to handle weather in the 20s.... which here in the Valley is about right. But, when the weather dips into the aughts it struggles to keep up. Little things start to malfunction; 'hey, is that draft from the window? never noticed that before,' 'who thought these high ceilings were a good idea?' a laundry room pipe freezes (it's unfrozen now), and the upstairs HVAC in the unheated attic crawl space (counter-intuitively) fails to ignite so we wake-up to indoor temps in the 50s. Not catastrophic or anything (yet), but you can feel the house complaining about the lack of foresight. We need things back in the 30s as God intended for Virginia.
This weekend is a do-nothing weekend after last week's Daughter #1 wedding. We're people'd out.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/20/2025”
Here's my current take on this. Unlike 2016 he has a team that has (let's say) a 100-day plan... a little bit like the scripted plays a football team can use to open a game.
Continuing the football analogy, the real question is how he reacts if a) the scripted plays stop working, and b) what does he do when they are over. And, unlike football, what happens when some outside event intrudes.
I joke that Suzie Wiles is the chewing gum, baling twine and duct tape of the administration... but I'll also add that while I've seen a lot on the conservative side go cynical on Trump, they figured out how his game is played and are currently trying to further their agenda 'as if' it were a Trump agenda. Here I'm not talking about Performative Congress critters, but donors and policy lobbyists.
In that sense 2024 is different from 2016, the question in my mind is how 2026 will differ from 2018.
Ultimately Trump is unreliable and untrustworthy... so it will end badly for some of those folks; but, some will get what they wanted.
"
New conspiracy theory... it's just the Warren Commission report and supporting documents. The good stuff was obviously not used for the Warren report and is still hidden in a secret location.
"
Good point... never underestimate Trump's complete ambivalence about legislating for the future.
But, there's only so far the administration can go with EO's and Reconciliation. But yeah, extending Trump's tax cuts and a few other financial goodies will likely just be some sort of omnibus reconciliation.
However, if they want transformative Immigration Policy, they are going to have to legislate it.
Given the right odds, I'd take the bet that they are willing to Nuke the filibuster.
On “Trump Term Two, Day One, Executive Orders”
Agreed. I'd focus on the dozen or so folks who were convicted of Seditious Conspiracy.
That's a pretty solid case for High Crime.
As for order of impeachments? I'd do Biden first because that might actually have the votes, and the goal is to set the precedent that some Pardons can be considered High Crimes, even if the 'Presidential Act' is formally correct.
After that, as long as the opposition can avoid the big dramatic 'impeach the electorate' types of things and just stay focused on narrow aspects... sure, consider it staking a position for future use.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/20/2025”
Once we're done talking about the EO's -- which have a 4-yr expiration date -- what do we think the One Legislative Push for his term will be?
Could be an Immigration Package that will be more Right than Left ... and will see a lot of Left crossover votes to just stop the bleeding.
But, and this is my genuine question, don't we kinda think he's going to do some sort of Tax/Finance bill that will benefit him and the Tech Sector? Surely extending the Trump Tax bill which was set to expire this year (which he assumed would be after his Presidency) plus whatever else his Libertarian, sorry Team Grey advisors want?
Where his heart lies, there his treasure.
On “Trump Term Two, Day One, Executive Orders”
I know, right? And once you get over the shock of the thing and count the costs, you realize the cost is $0... what's Biden going to do, complain about being excluded from running for President again in 4-years? Hope Historians can save his reputation on the Presidential Ranking Chart?
"
So you're saying only the GOP has agency?
We can all agree that one of the problems with Congress is that it is fundamentally driven by short-term tactical decision making - esp. at the individual level. That's a political reality that requires leadership to overcome for strategic objectives. Every political failing/weakness is an opportunity for some group that wants to take it.
"
None of this is relevant to a throw-away line I kinda wish I'd dropped.
It's not, I guess, an obvious point, so I'll make it obvious: the thing that's broken in the Republic isn't the Presidency, its the Congress.
The check on Presidents abusing their Pardon power isn't some DA in Biloxi, MS or even the SCOTUS, it's Congress impeaching the President for that abuse. That's the primary reason (secondary is political/comms) Presidents exercise their Dodgy Pardons on their last day... the way the Impeachment Process works in the Constitution requires (too long) a runway for Congress to react.
I'd recommend Dems draft *narrow and targeted* (if they are constitutionally able) articles of impeachment to signal that the improper use of the Pardon Power is a High Crime. Sure, it won't get the votes on Trump right now.
But, if you really want to do politics well (tm) Dems should draft articles of impeachment on Biden's pardons and see if they can bait Rs into impeaching Biden for the feels and (perhaps) opening up the pathway to SCOTUS to rule on the constitutionality of types of pardons -- plus proving you can impeach Presidents for Presidential Acts, even if they have left office.
Sometimes you eat an L (impeaching a DEM) to iterate a future W.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/20/2025”
There are a lot of things that are going to go down-hill because Trump is Trump.
What I'm watching for is what things, if any, go up in unexpected ways like Milei.
"
Heh, I was actually going to write that... but Chait beat me to it.
"
He blinked.
"
Good point. Truly, who among us can determine penumbras formed by emanations while not wearing the black robes of wisdom.
"
Heh, if you hated the Conservative Originalist Jurists, wait till you get the Conservative Living Constitution Jurists.
On “Trump Term Two, Day One, Executive Orders”
There are probably duelling Atlantic pieces upcoming about the significance of ending DEI on MLK day.
I'll probably agree with one of them.
"
Trump pardoning the Silk Road guy is, I think, the direction his Administration is going. Team Grey social and economic policies... everything else yadda yadda evangelicals and Christian Nationalists - pure smoke screen.
"
Nice, then we need a giant chain from Key West to Guantanamo ... just like Constantinople.