Silmarillion profoundly affected my own outlook on fantasy. I read it young and it kindled a white hot burning love of world building in my heart. So I was especially appalled as I watched Rings of Power. Like, Nazi's staring into the Arc of the Covenant levels of appalled.
The race of the various characters wouldn't have mattered a whit had the writing been any good, the plot been at all logical or it had actually focused on the forging of the titular Rings of Power. Instead they managed to find five minutes during the season finale to slap the rings out on the side.
I admit to being entirely shocked by Across the Spider-Verse; I had genuinely assumed that with expectations appropriately set high that AtSV would suffer compared to the original because the original was so, out-of-the-blue-sky amazing. I was still wrong. It was, again, astonishingly good and I even say that as a person who normally groans with a distinct sense of ennui at multiverse settings. Russell is spot on his placing it as the best film.
I don't disagree. Personally if a business wished to use their religious beliefs to refuse services to people I would want it only to be usable in court if they disclosed those restrictions on their signage and marketing material. Let the markets decide then.
Well Roberts' Court took their shot for religious liberty. With an imaginary business woman and an imaginary scary gay person trying to get an imaginary wedding website service. Best they could do is say that religious people are allowed to discriminate against people they don't like so long as they only do so in expressive service provision. Weak tea if you ask me, that's not much of a window for the fundies to try and wriggle through though, perhaps, the intention is to try and wiggle it wider over time?
I mean, it bears remembering, that AA actually is significant/relevant/material only if you're one of that incredibly tiny minority of elite educated people who're scrabbling for a slow in an elite university. Anywhere else and the universities will simply give everyone who applies and meets their minimal criteria a spot.
I think Freddie is pretty much spot on and cogent when it comes to AA.
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/affirmative-action-thoughts-in-an
It's a bit symbol for the left but as a substantive policy it's rather ineffectual and as a principle it's on iffy spongey ground.
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't most universities outside the top tier pretty much open admittance and are desperate for (any) students? Except for the selective admittance universities I don't see how this has much impact.
I just can't find it in my heart to get very upset by the axing of affirmative action.
A cogent and clear analysis and explanation. I learned a lot. The Ukrainian constitution seems to address this matter quite concretely and practically- to be honest I'm impressed.
Depends on the policy. Speaking personally I am a gay man; I have a black husband; I have many trans friends; I have a sister. So I have skin in the game on many hot button policies.
It takes a pretty cerebral person (or a person to whom the given issue has little to no impact) to focus on the process of any given policy rather than the outcome.
Abortion attitudes are shifting strongly in a pro-choice direction which doesn't surprise me in the least. The Pre-Roe world always had a HUGE contingent of people who were perfectly content to be verbally pro-life or non-committal so long as they were confident it wouldn't effect them in any way. The pre-Roe high water mark for pro-restriction attitude was clearly their highest water mark.
Reading over everything I don't buy the idea that it's play acting. A series of self-interested plays, miscalculations and then a resolution with a mutually beneficial compromise is more plausible.
Prigozhin:
Background: Prigozhin has been a loose cannon for a while but, presumably, miscalculated how loose he could be before he lost favor with Putin. Putin soured on Prigozhin’s shenanigans and began listening to the advice of Prigozhin’s enemies within the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin’s allies within the government alterted Prigozhin that the apparatus of government had turned on him.
Stakes: Prigozhin’s enemies within the MoD, obviously with Putins acquiescence if not blessing, began moving to liquidate Warner. The Warner military would be absorbed into the Russian Army and Prigozhin faced losing his revenue streams, his influence and, likely, his life.
Gambit: Prigozhin, either through advance contingency planning or through being well connected to the military, had already or was quickly able to lay down a plan to seize Rostov-on-Don, then the southern military command and then head out towards Moscow blitzing past sympathetic or apathetic internal security forces. It was serious, the oligarch rats began deserting the ship and Putin himself allegedly fled Moscow or, at least, moved his family out.
The fail: Prigozhin’s plan clearly assumed that more sympathetic or neutral elements among the military and the oligarchy would support his move against Putin’s crew in the MoD. He also may have miscalculated how quickly Putin could rally support to his Moscow defenses via air-lifting troops in. Critical persons didn’t flip or remain neutral. Moscow, despite Prigozhin’s speed of advance, became too hard a target.
The Situation prior to the deal: Prigozhin had Rostov-on-Don firmly in hand with significant supplies and a significant well-trained force behind Russian lines. Putin could not simply erase him but Prigozhin didn’t believe he could take Moscow, or, he didn’t think he could prosecute a genuine coup even if he took Moscow. The air force was beginning to pummel Warner forces. The most plausible outcome for Prigozhin at this stage would be a bloody destructive fight inside Russia eventually concluding with Prigozhin and his allies being bloodily and painfully executed by an enraged and bloodied, but still in power, Putin.
Putin:
Background: Putin’s been in power a long time and has used Prigozhin as a useful cats paw and wild card within the Ministry of Defenses hierarchies of power. A powerful singular military figure has always presented the most likely vector of a challenge of Putin’s hold on power so he has always viewed the MoD with a high degree of suspicious and has always acted to keep it factionalized and infighting. The War on Ukraine, though, has strained everything and Putin (or his people in the MoD) used Prigozhin’s forced in Bakhmut that left Warner discredited, weakened and left Prigozhin enraged and isolated. Clearly lines of communication between Prigozhin and Putin broke down and Putins’ favor drifted away. As with all Ceasars, communication from ground level to leadership grows strained as toadies and courtiers interfere to shade information to their own benefit. Putin grew disenchanted with Prigozhin and convinced that he could be discarded and Warners assets seized.
Gambit: Putin allowed or blessed a plan to liquidate Warner and divert its manpower and assets to his favored toadies in the Ministry of Defense. Whether Putin planned for Prigozhin to be merely marginalized or liquidated is unknown and unknowable but for Prigozhin the former is simply the latter in slow motion.
The fail: As, again, with most Ceasars, the toadies and courtiers over estimated their abilities and underestimated the practical skills and connections of Prigozhin and his allies. Prigozhin became aware of their moves and acted to launch a mutiny aimed at forcing Putin to liquidate them instead. Prigozhin seized logistical control of the entire Ukrainian front via seizing Rostov-on-Don and launched a military column at Moscow. The best we can say for Putin and his toadies is they managed to weaken that force, airlift in enough manpower to Moscow and keep enough MoD and Oligarch assets in line to prevent the mutiny from blossoming into a coup or a situation where Putin was forced to yield to Prigozhin.
The Situation prior to the deal: Putin and his minions had prevented catastrophe, but only just barely. Prigozhin didn’t have the ability to consummate his mutiny to a successful conclusion. This was thin comfort for Putin as he didn’t have the ability to swiftly and decisively eliminate Warner and Prigozhin without massively diverting resourced and disrupting his resource chains to Ukraine in the teeth of a well-equipped Ukrainian offensive. Putin was looking at either yielding to Prigozhin’s demands or else bloodily defeating Prigozhin at the cost of incalculable losses in Ukraine as his lines there imploded.
The compromise: Putin gives Prigozhin his life, exile to Belarus and a blanket pardon to all Warner elements who participated in the mutiny. In exchange he avoids a devastating conflict and likely flat out loss of the War in Ukraine. He basically gained a return to the status quos plus the liquidation of Warner at a huge cost to his reputation. Prigozhin presumably keeps his fortune, escapes to Belarus and stops drinking tea and stays away from windows from now on. If this deal seems slanted in Putin’s favor it is. Prigozhin’s gambit failed to achieve its goals. Putin was critically weakened but not decisively so. Putin’s toadies remain in control though presumably massively discredited and Putin himself has suffered a massive blow to his reputation but not necessarily a massive blow to his war effort. If you go for the King you had best not miss. Prigozhin missed.
Perhaps but those are minor considerations. You assassinate the center figure and his support fractures and infighting commences. And killing a man surrounded by body guards is very much a KGB/FSB skill set.
Agreed, I'm struggling to wrench myself away as well. Daily kos #Ukraine is pretty good for someone who hates twitter. I am trying, trying, to temper my expectations and hopes but this feels... I don't know... extra historic.
I cannot IMAGINE how the Ukrainians are feeling right now. Probably, healthily, suspicious. But the Russians just have to crack somewhere along that line and the Ukrainians just have to find it. If they get all that mobile armor and infantry vehicles the west has given them behind the Russian defensive lines the whole RU offense will roll up like an unglued carpet.
On “From Bloomberg: Amazon CEO Asks His Hollywood Studio to Explain Its Big Spending”
Silmarillion profoundly affected my own outlook on fantasy. I read it young and it kindled a white hot burning love of world building in my heart. So I was especially appalled as I watched Rings of Power. Like, Nazi's staring into the Arc of the Covenant levels of appalled.
"
The race of the various characters wouldn't have mattered a whit had the writing been any good, the plot been at all logical or it had actually focused on the forging of the titular Rings of Power. Instead they managed to find five minutes during the season finale to slap the rings out on the side.
On “The Month in Theaters June 2023”
I admit to being entirely shocked by Across the Spider-Verse; I had genuinely assumed that with expectations appropriately set high that AtSV would suffer compared to the original because the original was so, out-of-the-blue-sky amazing. I was still wrong. It was, again, astonishingly good and I even say that as a person who normally groans with a distinct sense of ennui at multiverse settings. Russell is spot on his placing it as the best film.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/26/2023”
Yeah, fancy that eh?
"
I don't disagree. Personally if a business wished to use their religious beliefs to refuse services to people I would want it only to be usable in court if they disclosed those restrictions on their signage and marketing material. Let the markets decide then.
"
Well Roberts' Court took their shot for religious liberty. With an imaginary business woman and an imaginary scary gay person trying to get an imaginary wedding website service. Best they could do is say that religious people are allowed to discriminate against people they don't like so long as they only do so in expressive service provision. Weak tea if you ask me, that's not much of a window for the fundies to try and wriggle through though, perhaps, the intention is to try and wiggle it wider over time?
On “SCOTUS Ruling on Affirmative Action & Admissions: Read It For Yourself”
Granted, but even if you include elite AND semi-elite, we're talking about an utterly miniscule number of people in total.
"
I mean, it bears remembering, that AA actually is significant/relevant/material only if you're one of that incredibly tiny minority of elite educated people who're scrabbling for a slow in an elite university. Anywhere else and the universities will simply give everyone who applies and meets their minimal criteria a spot.
On “The Clown Policeman in the Circus Parade”
I have to assume an Officer Lorette walked a regular beat in Skinnay's neighborhood.
On “SCOTUS Ruling on Affirmative Action & Admissions: Read It For Yourself”
I think Freddie is pretty much spot on and cogent when it comes to AA.
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/affirmative-action-thoughts-in-an
It's a bit symbol for the left but as a substantive policy it's rather ineffectual and as a principle it's on iffy spongey ground.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/26/2023”
That sounds more right than not.
"
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't most universities outside the top tier pretty much open admittance and are desperate for (any) students? Except for the selective admittance universities I don't see how this has much impact.
I just can't find it in my heart to get very upset by the axing of affirmative action.
On “There’s A Lickin’ Coming”
Yup that's been my own limited experience as well (I don't have kids thank God[ess?]).
"
Ball caps were far from uncommon when I was a kid in the 80's and 90's but they were definitely a minority and seem even more uncommon now.
On “Is Zelenskyy Canceling Elections?”
A cogent and clear analysis and explanation. I learned a lot. The Ukrainian constitution seems to address this matter quite concretely and practically- to be honest I'm impressed.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/26/2023”
Agreed.
"
Depends on the policy. Speaking personally I am a gay man; I have a black husband; I have many trans friends; I have a sister. So I have skin in the game on many hot button policies.
"
It takes a pretty cerebral person (or a person to whom the given issue has little to no impact) to focus on the process of any given policy rather than the outcome.
"
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/us/roe-v-wade-abortion-views.html
Abortion attitudes are shifting strongly in a pro-choice direction which doesn't surprise me in the least. The Pre-Roe world always had a HUGE contingent of people who were perfectly content to be verbally pro-life or non-committal so long as they were confident it wouldn't effect them in any way. The pre-Roe high water mark for pro-restriction attitude was clearly their highest water mark.
On “Trouble in Russia: Developing Story, “Wagner Mutiny” and Discussion Thread”
Reading over everything I don't buy the idea that it's play acting. A series of self-interested plays, miscalculations and then a resolution with a mutually beneficial compromise is more plausible.
Prigozhin:
Background: Prigozhin has been a loose cannon for a while but, presumably, miscalculated how loose he could be before he lost favor with Putin. Putin soured on Prigozhin’s shenanigans and began listening to the advice of Prigozhin’s enemies within the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin’s allies within the government alterted Prigozhin that the apparatus of government had turned on him.
Stakes: Prigozhin’s enemies within the MoD, obviously with Putins acquiescence if not blessing, began moving to liquidate Warner. The Warner military would be absorbed into the Russian Army and Prigozhin faced losing his revenue streams, his influence and, likely, his life.
Gambit: Prigozhin, either through advance contingency planning or through being well connected to the military, had already or was quickly able to lay down a plan to seize Rostov-on-Don, then the southern military command and then head out towards Moscow blitzing past sympathetic or apathetic internal security forces. It was serious, the oligarch rats began deserting the ship and Putin himself allegedly fled Moscow or, at least, moved his family out.
The fail: Prigozhin’s plan clearly assumed that more sympathetic or neutral elements among the military and the oligarchy would support his move against Putin’s crew in the MoD. He also may have miscalculated how quickly Putin could rally support to his Moscow defenses via air-lifting troops in. Critical persons didn’t flip or remain neutral. Moscow, despite Prigozhin’s speed of advance, became too hard a target.
The Situation prior to the deal: Prigozhin had Rostov-on-Don firmly in hand with significant supplies and a significant well-trained force behind Russian lines. Putin could not simply erase him but Prigozhin didn’t believe he could take Moscow, or, he didn’t think he could prosecute a genuine coup even if he took Moscow. The air force was beginning to pummel Warner forces. The most plausible outcome for Prigozhin at this stage would be a bloody destructive fight inside Russia eventually concluding with Prigozhin and his allies being bloodily and painfully executed by an enraged and bloodied, but still in power, Putin.
Putin:
Background: Putin’s been in power a long time and has used Prigozhin as a useful cats paw and wild card within the Ministry of Defenses hierarchies of power. A powerful singular military figure has always presented the most likely vector of a challenge of Putin’s hold on power so he has always viewed the MoD with a high degree of suspicious and has always acted to keep it factionalized and infighting. The War on Ukraine, though, has strained everything and Putin (or his people in the MoD) used Prigozhin’s forced in Bakhmut that left Warner discredited, weakened and left Prigozhin enraged and isolated. Clearly lines of communication between Prigozhin and Putin broke down and Putins’ favor drifted away. As with all Ceasars, communication from ground level to leadership grows strained as toadies and courtiers interfere to shade information to their own benefit. Putin grew disenchanted with Prigozhin and convinced that he could be discarded and Warners assets seized.
Gambit: Putin allowed or blessed a plan to liquidate Warner and divert its manpower and assets to his favored toadies in the Ministry of Defense. Whether Putin planned for Prigozhin to be merely marginalized or liquidated is unknown and unknowable but for Prigozhin the former is simply the latter in slow motion.
The fail: As, again, with most Ceasars, the toadies and courtiers over estimated their abilities and underestimated the practical skills and connections of Prigozhin and his allies. Prigozhin became aware of their moves and acted to launch a mutiny aimed at forcing Putin to liquidate them instead. Prigozhin seized logistical control of the entire Ukrainian front via seizing Rostov-on-Don and launched a military column at Moscow. The best we can say for Putin and his toadies is they managed to weaken that force, airlift in enough manpower to Moscow and keep enough MoD and Oligarch assets in line to prevent the mutiny from blossoming into a coup or a situation where Putin was forced to yield to Prigozhin.
The Situation prior to the deal: Putin and his minions had prevented catastrophe, but only just barely. Prigozhin didn’t have the ability to consummate his mutiny to a successful conclusion. This was thin comfort for Putin as he didn’t have the ability to swiftly and decisively eliminate Warner and Prigozhin without massively diverting resourced and disrupting his resource chains to Ukraine in the teeth of a well-equipped Ukrainian offensive. Putin was looking at either yielding to Prigozhin’s demands or else bloodily defeating Prigozhin at the cost of incalculable losses in Ukraine as his lines there imploded.
The compromise: Putin gives Prigozhin his life, exile to Belarus and a blanket pardon to all Warner elements who participated in the mutiny. In exchange he avoids a devastating conflict and likely flat out loss of the War in Ukraine. He basically gained a return to the status quos plus the liquidation of Warner at a huge cost to his reputation. Prigozhin presumably keeps his fortune, escapes to Belarus and stops drinking tea and stays away from windows from now on. If this deal seems slanted in Putin’s favor it is. Prigozhin’s gambit failed to achieve its goals. Putin was critically weakened but not decisively so. Putin’s toadies remain in control though presumably massively discredited and Putin himself has suffered a massive blow to his reputation but not necessarily a massive blow to his war effort. If you go for the King you had best not miss. Prigozhin missed.
"
Perhaps but those are minor considerations. You assassinate the center figure and his support fractures and infighting commences. And killing a man surrounded by body guards is very much a KGB/FSB skill set.
"
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/24/2177435/-OMG-Lukashenko-might-actually-have-saved-all-the-evil-butts
This analysis strikes me as highly plausible.
"
Yeah looks like the dream of this being huge is dead. It's bad for Putin, but it's not earth shattering.
"
Problem with this is Putin has an old and reliable answer to a problem minion who has a lot of manpower personally loyal to him: assassination.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/19/2023”
Agreed, I'm struggling to wrench myself away as well. Daily kos #Ukraine is pretty good for someone who hates twitter. I am trying, trying, to temper my expectations and hopes but this feels... I don't know... extra historic.
I cannot IMAGINE how the Ukrainians are feeling right now. Probably, healthily, suspicious. But the Russians just have to crack somewhere along that line and the Ukrainians just have to find it. If they get all that mobile armor and infantry vehicles the west has given them behind the Russian defensive lines the whole RU offense will roll up like an unglued carpet.