On account of him actually being quite good which, I suppose, would make it not an optical illusion. His term has borne that out quite well- I have no hesitation in saying his administration has done a fantastic job.Were he not burdened with the age he is burdened with I'd be flat out enthusiastic for his re-election.
There won't be any lockdowns, mass closures or mask mandates. The public has no appetite for it and, with vaccinations and better treatment options available, the systemic risk of Covid is much lower. The politicians aren't fools enough to not be able to read that writing on the walls (to say nothing of elections being next year). Moreover, the localities with politicians most prone to such action also have the highest levels of vaccination and hospital bed availability and, thus, the lowest need for lockdowns, mass closures or mask mandates.
I don't have your pessimism. In the course of a few months the Ukrainians have inverted the imbalance of artillery strength in their favor whereas the Russians have destroyed Ukrainian equipment that the US has been able to instantly replace without even looking up. All this while the Ukrainians have slowly ground their way through the Russians massive minefields. If this is what they have to show for 3 months pounding against the Russians toughest defensive line where will things go in another 3 months? Likewise, where is Russia going to get replacement gear? Word is they’re trying to buy ammo from the North Koreans (!) but unless China decides to get significantly more involved the Russians future fortunes don’t look good. A leader with longer horizons than Putin would be trying to negotiate a deal already but, then again, a leader with longer horizons wouldn’t have probably started this fiasco to begin with.
I’m pretty confident that the moment the Ukrainians decide they’ve had enough and offer a deal Biden will support it. At the moment, though, the Ukrainians don’t have any reason to offer a deal and I see no plausible argument in favor of Biden using our leverage to force them to do so.
I would. I know every culture war present moment is constitutionally required by the laws of the interweb to be described as the worst in history but compared to the sheer numbers and intensity of the past oppression what is happening now is indeed a "feeble shadow" of what it was. They're scooting around chasing after a handful of kids, a passel of athletes and a tiny tiny handful of people with a tiny tiny handful of marginal issues, That's what the right has been reduced to. It's pathetic.
If UKR breaks through and reaches the Sea of Azov then Crimea rapidly becomes indefensible. The Kerch bridge would be in range for bombardment and would quickly be made unusuable. Russia would have to ferry in supplies by sea and, long term, Crimeas water supplies were cut off when the Russians blew the damn on the reservoir that supplies it.
To end a war, both sides need to feel that concluding the conflict is preferable to pushing forward. That presents, in the Ukrainian context, a very high bar for the war’s conclusion:
-The Ukrainians are profoundly motivated to prosecute the war. They wish to liberate the rest of their territory, they generally feel they have “right” on their side and their military strength is increasing as time marches on and aid from the west continues to flow in. Moreover, they are, slowly, retaking territory from the Russians. They are not motivated to stop at this point.
-The Russians are not at all motivated to prosecute the war but, in the Russian context, the decision making lies in Putin’s hands and Putin is profoundly motivated to continue it because ending it in a manner that appears as a loss to his countrymen could very well end his grasp on power. Putin is neither young nor healthy so the fallout of this conflict will, most likely, be the defining element of his legacy. Russia has obliterated its conventional military strength and long-term economic prospects on the farmlands of Ukraine. Putin clearly doesn’t think that the terrain and peoples he’s seized merits what his country has paid for it (he’d be right) and he knows that the accounting will occur once the war ends. So, he puts off the end of the war and hopes he can pour enough blood into the conflict to prologue it beyond the wests patience to support the Ukrainians which, he tells himself, is the only reason the Ukrainians haven’t capitulated to him outright.
The war continues because neither side is willing to let it end. The Ukrainians because they cannot countenance letting it end like this and because they believe they can win- Putin because he likely cannot survive letting it end like this and because enduring is his only remaining play. We, in the West, could end it, only in theory, by ending all support for Ukraine but Russia is so mauled now that, even if we cut the Ukrainians off, the likely outcome would be an incredibly grinding, brutal conflict that’d make the current one look like child’s play.
I suppose it depends on what one means when one says "winning". Was Russia "Winning" when it invaded Ukraine and was securing territory and communities while the Ukrainians fought a rearguard action? If they were winning at that time then, by that same definition, Ukraine is "winning" now as it is re-securing territory and it is the Russians who are fighting and falling back.
I'm old enough to remember the kind of harassment and threats that the right used to be able to throw around en masse against every flavor of the LGBT+ skittles jar with either the tacit approval or indifference of the majority of the population. What the right can muster up now is a quivering feeble shadow of that former power. But, on the plus side, they have social media to amplify every outrage.
The tiny size of the Trans population is part of its appeal. The right discovered, to their horror, that gays were too numerous and too advantageously scattered through the population to make good scapegoats once they came out of the closet en masse. Trans is an easier target and is demographically much less likely to be related to the angry old men and frightened old ladies who fund their campaigns.
Yes, and it bears noting that no one hates the idea of defunding the police more than the minority residents of crime impacted communities. When we well meaning liberals talk about ending prison and law enforcement as we know it, resident of those communities don't think for even an instant that comfortable liberals will be accepting their neighborhoods overflowing with crime and homeless encampments.
Their coalition is somewhat less fractured and very geographically well positioned. If the left aped the GOP's tactics the GOP would have a permanent super majority.
Well that's heresy Saul! It is left identarian cannon that hyper liberal identity politics is favored by minority groups more than anyone else. The idea that identarian nostrums are principally the domain of white liberals would send Robin Diangelo straight to her fainting couch.
But, yeah, I suspect most interest groups across the electorate wish they could just ditch their squish fellow travellers and win an overwhelming electoral victory based on adhering strenuously to their first principles. They never could, probably never will, be able to.
It's not a threat. But it's a useful distraction that finds cachet with an influenceable voter pool and that the left has not yet embraced an answer to it that disarms it with said voter pool.
I mean it's already a well known fact that a very large portion of active voters simply vote party line and pay little more attention to politics than that. That is, in fact, one of the selling points of parties. Dislodging those voters takes a lot. More, I suspect, than it takes to activate non-voters into voting against/for a party. I don't see much point in decrying it.
I didn't expect much from the debate but a collection of movement in polls that doesn't even exceed the margin of error managed to go under my already low bar of expectation.
That Douthat piece rankled me a bit because he writes it as if he thinks that anyone on the Democratic side of the partisan gulf has any power at all to influence when the fishing trial date is set. IANAL but my understanding is none of them do. So a mistake by whom?
The interesting thing about this is if Trump is the nominee and he loses even 10% of the right wing vote then he's cooked. Not only cooked but in near landslide loss territory unless the lost votes end up concentrated in urban areas.
Don't forget the pattern recognition bias in evolution. We're pattern finding biased animals. Even when our pattern recognizing ancestors were wrong about the rustling leaves or oddly moving grass all they suffered was a momentary adrenaline spike and looking foolish. All our distance ancestors (or rather the unsuccessful siblings of our actual ancestors) who didn't pattern recognize got eaten by predators.
The upside: intuition, discovery, nice religion and their ilk.
The downside: bad religion, conspiracy theories and their ilk.
On “Let Joe Biden Be Joe Biden: Voter Reactions To President Biden’s Events”
On account of him actually being quite good which, I suppose, would make it not an optical illusion. His term has borne that out quite well- I have no hesitation in saying his administration has done a fantastic job.Were he not burdened with the age he is burdened with I'd be flat out enthusiastic for his re-election.
"
But for the opposition he probably wouldn't have run, or been given a chance.
On “Mini-Throughput: Masks, Redux”
There won't be any lockdowns, mass closures or mask mandates. The public has no appetite for it and, with vaccinations and better treatment options available, the systemic risk of Covid is much lower. The politicians aren't fools enough to not be able to read that writing on the walls (to say nothing of elections being next year). Moreover, the localities with politicians most prone to such action also have the highest levels of vaccination and hospital bed availability and, thus, the lowest need for lockdowns, mass closures or mask mandates.
On “Don’t Look Now But Ukraine is Winning”
You could be right. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how things will look longer term by the end of the current season in another month or so.
"
I don't have your pessimism. In the course of a few months the Ukrainians have inverted the imbalance of artillery strength in their favor whereas the Russians have destroyed Ukrainian equipment that the US has been able to instantly replace without even looking up. All this while the Ukrainians have slowly ground their way through the Russians massive minefields. If this is what they have to show for 3 months pounding against the Russians toughest defensive line where will things go in another 3 months? Likewise, where is Russia going to get replacement gear? Word is they’re trying to buy ammo from the North Koreans (!) but unless China decides to get significantly more involved the Russians future fortunes don’t look good. A leader with longer horizons than Putin would be trying to negotiate a deal already but, then again, a leader with longer horizons wouldn’t have probably started this fiasco to begin with.
I’m pretty confident that the moment the Ukrainians decide they’ve had enough and offer a deal Biden will support it. At the moment, though, the Ukrainians don’t have any reason to offer a deal and I see no plausible argument in favor of Biden using our leverage to force them to do so.
On “The Brand is the Point: Voting Against Your Interests to Stay in Your Tribe”
I would. I know every culture war present moment is constitutionally required by the laws of the interweb to be described as the worst in history but compared to the sheer numbers and intensity of the past oppression what is happening now is indeed a "feeble shadow" of what it was. They're scooting around chasing after a handful of kids, a passel of athletes and a tiny tiny handful of people with a tiny tiny handful of marginal issues, That's what the right has been reduced to. It's pathetic.
On “Don’t Look Now But Ukraine is Winning”
If UKR breaks through and reaches the Sea of Azov then Crimea rapidly becomes indefensible. The Kerch bridge would be in range for bombardment and would quickly be made unusuable. Russia would have to ferry in supplies by sea and, long term, Crimeas water supplies were cut off when the Russians blew the damn on the reservoir that supplies it.
"
To end a war, both sides need to feel that concluding the conflict is preferable to pushing forward. That presents, in the Ukrainian context, a very high bar for the war’s conclusion:
-The Ukrainians are profoundly motivated to prosecute the war. They wish to liberate the rest of their territory, they generally feel they have “right” on their side and their military strength is increasing as time marches on and aid from the west continues to flow in. Moreover, they are, slowly, retaking territory from the Russians. They are not motivated to stop at this point.
-The Russians are not at all motivated to prosecute the war but, in the Russian context, the decision making lies in Putin’s hands and Putin is profoundly motivated to continue it because ending it in a manner that appears as a loss to his countrymen could very well end his grasp on power. Putin is neither young nor healthy so the fallout of this conflict will, most likely, be the defining element of his legacy. Russia has obliterated its conventional military strength and long-term economic prospects on the farmlands of Ukraine. Putin clearly doesn’t think that the terrain and peoples he’s seized merits what his country has paid for it (he’d be right) and he knows that the accounting will occur once the war ends. So, he puts off the end of the war and hopes he can pour enough blood into the conflict to prologue it beyond the wests patience to support the Ukrainians which, he tells himself, is the only reason the Ukrainians haven’t capitulated to him outright.
The war continues because neither side is willing to let it end. The Ukrainians because they cannot countenance letting it end like this and because they believe they can win- Putin because he likely cannot survive letting it end like this and because enduring is his only remaining play. We, in the West, could end it, only in theory, by ending all support for Ukraine but Russia is so mauled now that, even if we cut the Ukrainians off, the likely outcome would be an incredibly grinding, brutal conflict that’d make the current one look like child’s play.
"
I suppose it depends on what one means when one says "winning". Was Russia "Winning" when it invaded Ukraine and was securing territory and communities while the Ukrainians fought a rearguard action? If they were winning at that time then, by that same definition, Ukraine is "winning" now as it is re-securing territory and it is the Russians who are fighting and falling back.
"
How does one go bankrupt? Slowly, then all at once. The same, I suspect, will apply to Russia's military rollback.
On “The Brand is the Point: Voting Against Your Interests to Stay in Your Tribe”
I'm old enough to remember the kind of harassment and threats that the right used to be able to throw around en masse against every flavor of the LGBT+ skittles jar with either the tacit approval or indifference of the majority of the population. What the right can muster up now is a quivering feeble shadow of that former power. But, on the plus side, they have social media to amplify every outrage.
"
Then this confirms the right isn't widely fascist since they've been moving down and in rather than up and out over the decades.
"
Maybe reductive but probably true too.
"
The tiny size of the Trans population is part of its appeal. The right discovered, to their horror, that gays were too numerous and too advantageously scattered through the population to make good scapegoats once they came out of the closet en masse. Trans is an easier target and is demographically much less likely to be related to the angry old men and frightened old ladies who fund their campaigns.
"
Yes, and it bears noting that no one hates the idea of defunding the police more than the minority residents of crime impacted communities. When we well meaning liberals talk about ending prison and law enforcement as we know it, resident of those communities don't think for even an instant that comfortable liberals will be accepting their neighborhoods overflowing with crime and homeless encampments.
"
Their coalition is somewhat less fractured and very geographically well positioned. If the left aped the GOP's tactics the GOP would have a permanent super majority.
"
Well that's heresy Saul! It is left identarian cannon that hyper liberal identity politics is favored by minority groups more than anyone else. The idea that identarian nostrums are principally the domain of white liberals would send Robin Diangelo straight to her fainting couch.
But, yeah, I suspect most interest groups across the electorate wish they could just ditch their squish fellow travellers and win an overwhelming electoral victory based on adhering strenuously to their first principles. They never could, probably never will, be able to.
"
In red strongholds like yours it's not really relevant or important. The strategy is aimed more at swing states.
"
It's not a threat. But it's a useful distraction that finds cachet with an influenceable voter pool and that the left has not yet embraced an answer to it that disarms it with said voter pool.
"
I mean it's already a well known fact that a very large portion of active voters simply vote party line and pay little more attention to politics than that. That is, in fact, one of the selling points of parties. Dislodging those voters takes a lot. More, I suspect, than it takes to activate non-voters into voting against/for a party. I don't see much point in decrying it.
On “I’m Worried About the Gadsden Flag Kid”
Cosign.
On “How to Make People Care About Democratic Achievements”
Absolutely that's a significant consideration. It's not a simple system.
"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
On “The State of the Republican Primary”
I didn't expect much from the debate but a collection of movement in polls that doesn't even exceed the margin of error managed to go under my already low bar of expectation.
That Douthat piece rankled me a bit because he writes it as if he thinks that anyone on the Democratic side of the partisan gulf has any power at all to influence when the fishing trial date is set. IANAL but my understanding is none of them do. So a mistake by whom?
The interesting thing about this is if Trump is the nominee and he loses even 10% of the right wing vote then he's cooked. Not only cooked but in near landslide loss territory unless the lost votes end up concentrated in urban areas.
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/28/2023”
Don't forget the pattern recognition bias in evolution. We're pattern finding biased animals. Even when our pattern recognizing ancestors were wrong about the rustling leaves or oddly moving grass all they suffered was a momentary adrenaline spike and looking foolish. All our distance ancestors (or rather the unsuccessful siblings of our actual ancestors) who didn't pattern recognize got eaten by predators.
The upside: intuition, discovery, nice religion and their ilk.
The downside: bad religion, conspiracy theories and their ilk.