Eh.. the GOP would still take it in a heartbeat. Tax cuts now, then they fight out who will do tax cuts later. Still no shot they'd appoint a veep. McCarthy isn't despised by the GOP as a whole, he's disliked by, like, half a dozen wingers. This is a problem for him only because his majority margin is smaller than the number of high grade nuts in his caucus and because any one member of his caucus can file a motion to vacate the chair.
Yes, that is correct and it's infuriating. If McCarthy merely scheduled a vote on anything the Senate has passed it'd pass easily. But he'd them immediately face a motion to vacate the chair. The continued function of the country pales to nothing compared to McCarthy continuing to be Speaker in McCarthy's estimation*.
*Heck, merely the -chance- of McCarthy not being Speaker. If he offered to schedule a vote in exchange for the Dems promising to throw him enough support to survive a motion to vacate I would imagine that's a deal Jeffries would take.
Perhaps I'm missing a step here. If, for -any- reason the Vice Presidency is vacated, the GOP Congress will -always- refuse to approve a replacement Veep unless it is, I dunno, Trump himself or someone else they specifically select. There is zero downside. They don't even pretend to try and govern now. If Biden lives out his term then they lose nothing. If Biden dies then the Speaker becomes President. Heck, stonewalling Garland for the Supreme Court was more iffy than this scenario and they did that.
I think it's too 5d. Firstly, the primary "motivation" to "promote' Kamela to Senator is to ostensibly allow removing her as a factor in the upcoming presidential election in 24. Doing it after the fact would be, well, pointless and even more impossible for her to accept.
Secondly, A re-elected VP Harris would be heir apparent for her own Presidential nomination and run and, having been re-elected, would have an iron argument against her nay-sayers. She'd have even less reason to accept "promotion" to Senator than prior to the election.
I don't think those arguments hold water though. We aren't destabilizing Russia by helping Ukraine, Russia is destabilizing Russia by invading Ukraine.
As for the worth question, it's largely academic because even by the most cynical, gimlet eyed and cold blooded analysis the return on investment the US is getting for the aid dollars it's sending is astronomical. We can set aside more nebulous "soft power" benefits like the cold water it's throwing on authoratarians everywhere on the idea of invasion and adventurism or the bolstering of the US' reputation across the developed world and East Europe while acknowledging that they are likely real. But sticking strictly to concrete benefits, the obliteration of Russian material, the humiliation of Russian arms manufacturing, the ocean of Russian soldiers blood being shed all at the cost of considerable quantities of US army surplus material (ffs all the cluster munitions we're sending was stuff we'd otherwise had had to PAY to dispose of safely) and not a single drop of US blood is simply an incredible return. If a program that had this outcome at this cost had been available during the Cold War they'd have carved the face of the President who oversaw it on Mount Rushmore.
Dude, saying a building with 10,000 square feet of space has 30,000 square feet of space is unambiguous fraud and that's merely the worst example. There's no way to spin that with "experts disagree on things" a buildings gross living area is not something experts disagree on.
Professional Democratic staff are badly influenced by the identity sphere of internet leftists. What is good for the organization is subservient to what is good for given actors to preen about on social media. It's a problem and would be a cataclysmic one if it weren't for the fact that it's even worse on the right.
There'd be no chaos at all. The prospect of tax cuts for the wealthy would instantly unify the GOP in favor of not accepting any replacement. Besides, opposing any Biden pick for anything is their default state.
He could, technically, say he's going to do it next year. The Dems could, in theory, operate down one Senator until then. But it's moot because it'd require Harris accepting it which she, of course, would never do.
Heh, my how the bar has lowered over the decades. I'd say it's a shame the right wingers of the two Clinton and Obama freakouts didn't live to see the goalposts shift but that'd be nonsense since they not only lived to see it but personally sold out on it too.
Because I didn't know the late Senator. I'm too young to have seen her in her prime and so for my adult life she's mostly just been a warm body in the Senate (at best). I'm sure I'd have had charitable thoughts about her friends and relatives losses had I known her better or if I was a nicer person but I am a cynical watcher of politics. At least my relief that Californians will soon have have two Senators again was a fifth or sixth order thought.
My first thought on reading this news was "Schumer and the Dem leadership in the Senate knew." Not the exact date- to be sure- but that she was on her way out and soon. It makes the way they ignored all the screaming from the bleachers about forcing her out seem entirely rational and almost humane in hindsight.
What they're saying is they can't prove Biden committed any crime at all, let alone an impeachable offense. As for proving he didn't? Well, you can't prove a negative.
We'll see. I wouldn't put good odds on the megachurches personally. And while the liberal feel good religions seem to make sense on paper the actual real world outcomes seem to be that when you water that religion down enough to be feel good universalist then people just decide they'd rather have their Sundays to themselves and not bother at all.
I've read the observation somewhere, I think it might have been Dreher or Douthat, that the successors to the religious, the nones, are emphatically not like the pagan peoples the Christians converted to Christianity in the first place. They're mentally armored against the traditional modes of proselytizing with cynicism and memory of their immediate lived history and that strikes me as correct.
Which means that it'll take more than the boomers passing from the stage. It'll require that the children or grandchildren of the nones be approaching the stage and have little to no lived experience of the foibles and failings of organized religions and, instead, the foibles and failings of the nones will loom large in their minds and they may be open to the pitch of organized religion again.
But barring some kind of cultural memory obliterating event or cataclysm, the new organized religions will need to have some answers on a bunch of tough questions that they haven’t tackled yet. Otherwise I don’t see them having much purchase with the old doctrine.
People would have to choose to do it, have considerable success doing it and then reliably produce better tempered, happier, more productive descendants and it'd spread organically. Doubtful that it actually would work, of course, but an entertaining thought experiment.
That's a new one to me. The idea is they hang around with their kids until the kids are almost teens and then do all the learning and career development stuff while the kids go to high school?
For there to be negotiations both sides must believe that there is something to be gained from a negotiated settlement. Neither side currently does.
The Ukrainians, correctly, view any ceasefire as simply offering a respite to Russia which the Russians would use to cement the portions of Ukraine the Russians have seized. If Zelenski were to negotiate his own people would likely ride him out of Kiev on a rail.
The Russians (specifically Putin) still hope that Ukraine can be ground down and that the alliance supporting them can be distracted and outlasted.
We, as third parties, are entirely incapable of making either of the two begin negotiating so we cannot force a negotiated settlement.
On “From NBC News: Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, has died at 90.”
Eh.. the GOP would still take it in a heartbeat. Tax cuts now, then they fight out who will do tax cuts later. Still no shot they'd appoint a veep. McCarthy isn't despised by the GOP as a whole, he's disliked by, like, half a dozen wingers. This is a problem for him only because his majority margin is smaller than the number of high grade nuts in his caucus and because any one member of his caucus can file a motion to vacate the chair.
On “MAGA Wants a Shutdown”
Yes, that is correct and it's infuriating. If McCarthy merely scheduled a vote on anything the Senate has passed it'd pass easily. But he'd them immediately face a motion to vacate the chair. The continued function of the country pales to nothing compared to McCarthy continuing to be Speaker in McCarthy's estimation*.
*Heck, merely the -chance- of McCarthy not being Speaker. If he offered to schedule a vote in exchange for the Dems promising to throw him enough support to survive a motion to vacate I would imagine that's a deal Jeffries would take.
On “From NBC News: Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, has died at 90.”
This specific example is a little cringe, to quote the youngs, but not too bad. But the overall phenomena is a problem.
"
Perhaps I'm missing a step here. If, for -any- reason the Vice Presidency is vacated, the GOP Congress will -always- refuse to approve a replacement Veep unless it is, I dunno, Trump himself or someone else they specifically select. There is zero downside. They don't even pretend to try and govern now. If Biden lives out his term then they lose nothing. If Biden dies then the Speaker becomes President. Heck, stonewalling Garland for the Supreme Court was more iffy than this scenario and they did that.
"
I think it's too 5d. Firstly, the primary "motivation" to "promote' Kamela to Senator is to ostensibly allow removing her as a factor in the upcoming presidential election in 24. Doing it after the fact would be, well, pointless and even more impossible for her to accept.
Secondly, A re-elected VP Harris would be heir apparent for her own Presidential nomination and run and, having been re-elected, would have an iron argument against her nay-sayers. She'd have even less reason to accept "promotion" to Senator than prior to the election.
On “MAGA Wants a Shutdown”
I don't think those arguments hold water though. We aren't destabilizing Russia by helping Ukraine, Russia is destabilizing Russia by invading Ukraine.
As for the worth question, it's largely academic because even by the most cynical, gimlet eyed and cold blooded analysis the return on investment the US is getting for the aid dollars it's sending is astronomical. We can set aside more nebulous "soft power" benefits like the cold water it's throwing on authoratarians everywhere on the idea of invasion and adventurism or the bolstering of the US' reputation across the developed world and East Europe while acknowledging that they are likely real. But sticking strictly to concrete benefits, the obliteration of Russian material, the humiliation of Russian arms manufacturing, the ocean of Russian soldiers blood being shed all at the cost of considerable quantities of US army surplus material (ffs all the cluster munitions we're sending was stuff we'd otherwise had had to PAY to dispose of safely) and not a single drop of US blood is simply an incredible return. If a program that had this outcome at this cost had been available during the Cold War they'd have carved the face of the President who oversaw it on Mount Rushmore.
On “Another Legal Loss for Donald Trump (Stay Tuned for More)”
Dude, saying a building with 10,000 square feet of space has 30,000 square feet of space is unambiguous fraud and that's merely the worst example. There's no way to spin that with "experts disagree on things" a buildings gross living area is not something experts disagree on.
On “From NBC News: Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, has died at 90.”
Professional Democratic staff are badly influenced by the identity sphere of internet leftists. What is good for the organization is subservient to what is good for given actors to preen about on social media. It's a problem and would be a cataclysmic one if it weren't for the fact that it's even worse on the right.
"
There'd be no chaos at all. The prospect of tax cuts for the wealthy would instantly unify the GOP in favor of not accepting any replacement. Besides, opposing any Biden pick for anything is their default state.
"
He could, technically, say he's going to do it next year. The Dems could, in theory, operate down one Senator until then. But it's moot because it'd require Harris accepting it which she, of course, would never do.
"
I had seen a couple, a skull with skin is the word that jumped to mind.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/25/2023”
Not at all, just noting how the definitions, terms and goalposts change when discussing a Republican figure vs a non-Republican one.
But in the strictest technical sense it is true that Trump isn't criminally guilty of anything, yet. Merely civilly guilty.
"
Heh, my how the bar has lowered over the decades. I'd say it's a shame the right wingers of the two Clinton and Obama freakouts didn't live to see the goalposts shift but that'd be nonsense since they not only lived to see it but personally sold out on it too.
On “From NBC News: Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, has died at 90.”
Because I didn't know the late Senator. I'm too young to have seen her in her prime and so for my adult life she's mostly just been a warm body in the Senate (at best). I'm sure I'd have had charitable thoughts about her friends and relatives losses had I known her better or if I was a nicer person but I am a cynical watcher of politics. At least my relief that Californians will soon have have two Senators again was a fifth or sixth order thought.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/25/2023”
Saul is a tch more enthusiastic than the facts warrant, I suppose, but his vector appears correct unlike the entirety of the right.
"
Trump has repeatedly been convicted of civil fraud. He's legally barred from operating or owning charitable foundations or educational institutions.
On “From NBC News: Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, has died at 90.”
My first thought on reading this news was "Schumer and the Dem leadership in the Senate knew." Not the exact date- to be sure- but that she was on her way out and soon. It makes the way they ignored all the screaming from the bleachers about forcing her out seem entirely rational and almost humane in hindsight.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/25/2023”
A defendant isn't guilty until someone proves they're innocent.
"
What they're saying is they can't prove Biden committed any crime at all, let alone an impeachable offense. As for proving he didn't? Well, you can't prove a negative.
On “The Marriage Privilege”
We'll see. I wouldn't put good odds on the megachurches personally. And while the liberal feel good religions seem to make sense on paper the actual real world outcomes seem to be that when you water that religion down enough to be feel good universalist then people just decide they'd rather have their Sundays to themselves and not bother at all.
"
It's a novel concept and it's the first I've read it anywhere so well done.
"
I've read the observation somewhere, I think it might have been Dreher or Douthat, that the successors to the religious, the nones, are emphatically not like the pagan peoples the Christians converted to Christianity in the first place. They're mentally armored against the traditional modes of proselytizing with cynicism and memory of their immediate lived history and that strikes me as correct.
Which means that it'll take more than the boomers passing from the stage. It'll require that the children or grandchildren of the nones be approaching the stage and have little to no lived experience of the foibles and failings of organized religions and, instead, the foibles and failings of the nones will loom large in their minds and they may be open to the pitch of organized religion again.
But barring some kind of cultural memory obliterating event or cataclysm, the new organized religions will need to have some answers on a bunch of tough questions that they haven’t tackled yet. Otherwise I don’t see them having much purchase with the old doctrine.
"
People would have to choose to do it, have considerable success doing it and then reliably produce better tempered, happier, more productive descendants and it'd spread organically. Doubtful that it actually would work, of course, but an entertaining thought experiment.
"
That's a new one to me. The idea is they hang around with their kids until the kids are almost teens and then do all the learning and career development stuff while the kids go to high school?
On “The Sky Isn’t Falling”
For there to be negotiations both sides must believe that there is something to be gained from a negotiated settlement. Neither side currently does.
The Ukrainians, correctly, view any ceasefire as simply offering a respite to Russia which the Russians would use to cement the portions of Ukraine the Russians have seized. If Zelenski were to negotiate his own people would likely ride him out of Kiev on a rail.
The Russians (specifically Putin) still hope that Ukraine can be ground down and that the alliance supporting them can be distracted and outlasted.
We, as third parties, are entirely incapable of making either of the two begin negotiating so we cannot force a negotiated settlement.