I'm sure Jeffrey Katzenberg appears to Harris every morning in shaolin monk robes encouraging her not just to think like the generic Democrat, but to be the generic Democrat.
In July I bet Biden remained the nominee, so already not boding well for me.
Still I'm going to hold firm on:
Democratic House, odds 90% it is 5 seats or fewer, 10% 5-10 seats, 1% more than 10.
GOP Senate 52-48
I had Biden winning 277 to 261 (holds PA, MI, AZ, NV, loses WI, GA, NC, dgfa the carved out districts, they won’t matter). I'm giving Harris WI back based on recent polls, changing outcome to Harris victory, 287-251.
I think if he loses chances are high he does at least some prison time, maybe remains a cause celebré in the alt/hard online right, but is quickly memory holed anywhere that butts up against the mainstream.
I can already read the quizzicle piece at WSJ or wherever that treats the everything Trump as if it was somehow a creation of the left wing media.
Respectfully, I think you guys are letting yourselves be twitter brained. She's obviously an idiot. Academia seems to be teeming with flakey people like this. That's annoying for various reasons and there are areas where it is a real problem.
But let me gently suggest that if you're letting her stupidity influence your own opinions about reality, even if it is in a way that is in opposition to her, that you too may he losing perspective.
Oh yea it's way more effective. In my brief time as a federal employee my take away was that if you made it through the 1 year probationary period, short some sort of serious criminal act, you were unfireable. There were people collecting pay checks who I'm pretty sure hadn't lifted a finger in years. Or people whose only job seemed to be playing the bureaucracy to continued employment.
My experience in the private sector is that while you can get rid of people there are all kinds of ways that it gets dodged or delayed to an absurd degree, from nepotism to ass covering to laziness (i.e. easier to keep a bad performer than recruit and train someone better) to just plain risk aversion.
Not that you want a place where people think every day they walk in the door could be their last either. I'm just saying the private sector isn't the well oiled machine of brutal efficiency where you perform or you're out that it's at times made out to be.
Before I went to law school I spent a few years as a contractor and eventually actually got hired as a federal employee at the same
(admittedly inconsequential, low visibility) institution. I could tell you way, way worse stories than that. A big part of the reason I decided to go back to school is that I knew I'd go crazy if I pursued federal service as a career.
Which doesn't mean there aren't good people. As best as I can tell there's just no performance management and a culture where everyone's priority is routine over productivity. This was in the early-mid aughts so maybe things are different now but I kinda doubt it.
A lot of times when the sink is dripping you don't need a new faucet, just a new cartridge. I have gone through re-installing them one by one in all of the sinks as they go out.
Of course the geniuses who designed my house tiled in the access for the tub in the master bathroom so when that one went I had to hire someone. We learned it was leaking when we saw water staining the ceiling in my kitchen/under the bathroom. Ended up cutting it open just to be sure nothing worse was going on, and because this was covid it took 3 months to get someone out to patch what was about a 4 x 6 foot hole. Thankfully it was done by Christmas but it will forever be remembered as the holiday season with the giant hole in the ceiling. Home ownership is annoying.
To the extent there's a case for it I think it's less about individual outcomes and more about keeping existing schools and school systems honest. I have my doubts about whether that's in fact what would happen under existing proposals, but I suppose ymmv.
There are states like that in the area. There are also states based around the lines drawn by Ottoman and European colonial powers. The result has tended to be either hopelessly weak governments perpetually on the verge of collapse and/or civil war or countries held together by a strongman and/or the military. It isn't an approach that inspires a lot of confidence.
I think this component of it is misguided, and inconsistent with the way these kinds of issues have been settled in a sustainable way. The trend in the old world for the last two centuries has been towards ever smaller self governing nation and/or creed states. The places that work differently tend to either be in the new world or are loose federations with convenient geography like Indonesia.
There's also the problem that no one is really indigenous to anywhere. Not as far as the archeological records are concerned. The claim is a political one, and not one that usually stands up well to historical scrutiny. It isn't a realistic organizing principle and the Palestinian claim to it is no stronger than to numerous other ethnic groups caught on the wrong side of changing borders over the last 100 years. Justice and fairness demands they have a state to be citizens of, not a particular plot of land their grandparents may have lived on in a time quickly fading from living memory.
You aren't wrong but I believe a key component to ending that conflict was freedom of movement in the context of both the UK and Ireland being EU member states. One of the concerns about Brexit has been that friction at the border could spark a resurgence in violence and dormant secessionist elements.
Freedom of movement is of course among the most hot button issues in the I/P conflict and there's no bigger multinational organization or agreement presenting a solution.
The state can provide a building. It can (in theory at least) provide minimally competent teachers and staff. It can provide equipment, supplies, and some special accommodations. It can, and should, provide some other basics through the school system like food.
What it will never be able to do is guarantee an outcome. That's on the student and the parents.
I sat through both president debates from start to finish. Thinking I am going to sit this one out, maybe watch an episode of From with my wife instead. After all it is spooky season. Let me know who wins.
Anecdotally this is consistent with what I have heard from DC area elite lawyer types, many of whom have children they hope to see accepted into the Ivies and exclusive SLACs. It would be interesting to see if anyone can measure it in a scientific way.
I will say a factor to consider is that those students whose educational lives were most turned upside down by Covid at critical points are now reaching college age.
It's a tough choice, but given the pick between modern bombers, first rate armor and infantry, and the highest tech military kit in the world on one hand, versus a college adjunct and an army of sophomores on the other, I'd have to take the former, even if the latter is undefeated on Twitter.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
I'm sure Jeffrey Katzenberg appears to Harris every morning in shaolin monk robes encouraging her not just to think like the generic Democrat, but to be the generic Democrat.
"
In July I bet Biden remained the nominee, so already not boding well for me.
Still I'm going to hold firm on:
Democratic House, odds 90% it is 5 seats or fewer, 10% 5-10 seats, 1% more than 10.
GOP Senate 52-48
I had Biden winning 277 to 261 (holds PA, MI, AZ, NV, loses WI, GA, NC, dgfa the carved out districts, they won’t matter). I'm giving Harris WI back based on recent polls, changing outcome to Harris victory, 287-251.
"
I think if he loses chances are high he does at least some prison time, maybe remains a cause celebré in the alt/hard online right, but is quickly memory holed anywhere that butts up against the mainstream.
I can already read the quizzicle piece at WSJ or wherever that treats the everything Trump as if it was somehow a creation of the left wing media.
If he loses.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Respectfully, I think you guys are letting yourselves be twitter brained. She's obviously an idiot. Academia seems to be teeming with flakey people like this. That's annoying for various reasons and there are areas where it is a real problem.
But let me gently suggest that if you're letting her stupidity influence your own opinions about reality, even if it is in a way that is in opposition to her, that you too may he losing perspective.
On “Of Conspiracy Theories and Helene”
Oh yea it's way more effective. In my brief time as a federal employee my take away was that if you made it through the 1 year probationary period, short some sort of serious criminal act, you were unfireable. There were people collecting pay checks who I'm pretty sure hadn't lifted a finger in years. Or people whose only job seemed to be playing the bureaucracy to continued employment.
My experience in the private sector is that while you can get rid of people there are all kinds of ways that it gets dodged or delayed to an absurd degree, from nepotism to ass covering to laziness (i.e. easier to keep a bad performer than recruit and train someone better) to just plain risk aversion.
Not that you want a place where people think every day they walk in the door could be their last either. I'm just saying the private sector isn't the well oiled machine of brutal efficiency where you perform or you're out that it's at times made out to be.
"
Yea I certainly have no illusions about the private sector either. Different set of problems, including with accountability.
"
Before I went to law school I spent a few years as a contractor and eventually actually got hired as a federal employee at the same
(admittedly inconsequential, low visibility) institution. I could tell you way, way worse stories than that. A big part of the reason I decided to go back to school is that I knew I'd go crazy if I pursued federal service as a career.
Which doesn't mean there aren't good people. As best as I can tell there's just no performance management and a culture where everyone's priority is routine over productivity. This was in the early-mid aughts so maybe things are different now but I kinda doubt it.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Don't act like you aren't walking around down there in cowboy boots, a 10 gallon hat, and a belt buckle the size of a toddler.
"
I'm just giving you a hard time.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Sink”
A lot of times when the sink is dripping you don't need a new faucet, just a new cartridge. I have gone through re-installing them one by one in all of the sinks as they go out.
Of course the geniuses who designed my house tiled in the access for the tub in the master bathroom so when that one went I had to hire someone. We learned it was leaking when we saw water staining the ceiling in my kitchen/under the bathroom. Ended up cutting it open just to be sure nothing worse was going on, and because this was covid it took 3 months to get someone out to patch what was about a 4 x 6 foot hole. Thankfully it was done by Christmas but it will forever be remembered as the holiday season with the giant hole in the ceiling. Home ownership is annoying.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
When I was a kid in Catholic school they read us the new testament to make us feel guilty and the old testament to terrify us.
"
To the extent there's a case for it I think it's less about individual outcomes and more about keeping existing schools and school systems honest. I have my doubts about whether that's in fact what would happen under existing proposals, but I suppose ymmv.
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
You're only making the jinx worse by commenting on it. And now I've done it too!
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
There are states like that in the area. There are also states based around the lines drawn by Ottoman and European colonial powers. The result has tended to be either hopelessly weak governments perpetually on the verge of collapse and/or civil war or countries held together by a strongman and/or the military. It isn't an approach that inspires a lot of confidence.
"
Checking my own facts it appears Indonesia is in fact a unitary state. Oh well. I think the point still stands.
"
I think this component of it is misguided, and inconsistent with the way these kinds of issues have been settled in a sustainable way. The trend in the old world for the last two centuries has been towards ever smaller self governing nation and/or creed states. The places that work differently tend to either be in the new world or are loose federations with convenient geography like Indonesia.
There's also the problem that no one is really indigenous to anywhere. Not as far as the archeological records are concerned. The claim is a political one, and not one that usually stands up well to historical scrutiny. It isn't a realistic organizing principle and the Palestinian claim to it is no stronger than to numerous other ethnic groups caught on the wrong side of changing borders over the last 100 years. Justice and fairness demands they have a state to be citizens of, not a particular plot of land their grandparents may have lived on in a time quickly fading from living memory.
"
You aren't wrong but I believe a key component to ending that conflict was freedom of movement in the context of both the UK and Ireland being EU member states. One of the concerns about Brexit has been that friction at the border could spark a resurgence in violence and dormant secessionist elements.
Freedom of movement is of course among the most hot button issues in the I/P conflict and there's no bigger multinational organization or agreement presenting a solution.
"
The state can provide a building. It can (in theory at least) provide minimally competent teachers and staff. It can provide equipment, supplies, and some special accommodations. It can, and should, provide some other basics through the school system like food.
What it will never be able to do is guarantee an outcome. That's on the student and the parents.
On “Vice Presidential Candidate Debate: Sen JD Vance vs Gov Tim Walz”
My O's lost earlier. Hoping for a better performance tomorrow.
"
I sat through both president debates from start to finish. Thinking I am going to sit this one out, maybe watch an episode of From with my wife instead. After all it is spooky season. Let me know who wins.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Those aren't helping either.
"
Oh I expect the anecdotes will be way worse when they get to the kids who were in elementary school.
"
Anecdotally this is consistent with what I have heard from DC area elite lawyer types, many of whom have children they hope to see accepted into the Ivies and exclusive SLACs. It would be interesting to see if anyone can measure it in a scientific way.
I will say a factor to consider is that those students whose educational lives were most turned upside down by Covid at critical points are now reaching college age.
On “Pete Rose and the Limitations of Hustle”
Hall of Fame on one side of the terrace, Hall of Infamy on the other.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/23/2024”
It's a tough choice, but given the pick between modern bombers, first rate armor and infantry, and the highest tech military kit in the world on one hand, versus a college adjunct and an army of sophomores on the other, I'd have to take the former, even if the latter is undefeated on Twitter.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.