Well, that's a conversation I've been having for over 25-yrs at this point... The Money faction was always driving the bus. But that's a big part of what I mean by Party ID. Money wanted the votes, but not the policies it would take to make the position viable Post Roe. Money wants 15-Week consensus to be a thing... I would never call it a Socially Moderate Pro-Life position though. Socially Moderate Pro-Abortion? Sure.
"Now, I understand that the pro-life true believers see abortion as a totally separate issue from healthcare generally, but the reality is that they are deeply intertwined. Maybe it would be different if the GOP were trusted stewards of the healthcare system, and actually made efforts to fix the problems with it and help people in the process"
I think you've got it backwards, or maybe crosswise. And, interestingly, I also think this is an example of "Activist Disease" which is usually more common on the left.
'True Believers' definitely see it as a Health Care issue, as well as a broad pro-natal/pro-family issues (incluuding jobs, housing, family formation and all the other aspects of 'life')
'Activist Disease' is the inability to take a win, and pivot to what needs to be done next... instead there's too much invested in 'The Message' that all they can do is double down on the next cause regardless of whether it's related or a good next step. Repealing Roe was good, it was bad Constitutional Law. But the single minded focus on moving the Line on a 'Ban by the Week' is not persuasive given the larger issues that need addressing... but too much spent, too much invested, too many careers are involved to give it up and pivot -- better to lose and keep funding than risk changing.
'Party Identity' when being Pro-Life just meant signaling Party Identity it didn't matter what Pro-Life meant other than overturning Roe. Most aren't 'True Believers' and they aren't interested in the 'liberalish' things associated with the 'True Believers' so they are keen to make it go away -- hence the attempts by various Party leaders to coalesce around 15-weeks plus exceptions.
What's odd, as was displayed in VA31 is that 15-weeks plus exceptions is being portrayed as (literally in VA31) a Total Ban on abortions. To your point, I reckon, the R's as a 'Party ID' are identified by the 'Activists' and so 15-weeks plus Exceptions is not seen as a reliable bet.
So, I agree that R's are eating it post-Roe, but the irony is that 15-weeks (i.e. abortion on-demand, largely as it is *practiced* today) is losing in the messaging wars as 'extreme'. VA is 26-weeks plus exceptions (requires Doctors to sign-off after 26 weeks). That's the delta 26 to 15. The number of Abortions that would be restricted by 26 to 15? Approximately 0.
On the other hand, I totally agree that the Republican party is a complete shambles on this and other issues, so I'm not particularly invested in their success/failure... Abortion as a policy issue is no longer about Roe/Judges, but about Health Care, Housing, Family Formation, Capturing Productivity Gains for Workers, etc... it's not a supply-side issue, but a demand-side issue.
Most apps accepting Biological passwords has been a big help.
However, I've been burned by apps (usually Travel after the long Covid Hiatus) that don't get used all the time then they update and pretend that their security protocols can't possibly transfer your old biologic password until you log-in manually and re-set your bio password. Usually this happens with a line behind you.
Basically, for an app you rarely use, like healthcare app... the bio-password is reset so often as not to provide the longterm value of having a bio-password.
Did the same thing and rented a Tesla for a weekend... never found a place to charge it (i.e. the end-points didn't have EV charging) but never really needed to charge it, so just paid the fine when I returned it.
I thought it drove well, the vehicle 'awareness' system was pretty good -- but not something I'd trust to drive itself -- and the GUI / Touchscreen was noticeably better than all the horrible touch screens that the major carriers have tried (and failed) to build well.
That said, most I'd consider right now would be a PHEV... fine with me to offset gas use, but I'm using gas as a reliable fuel source for business trips and any other trip until EV tech is better and even more ubiquitous.
Yeah, we're well past 'negative ads' and fully in alternative reality ads narrated by 'Movie Guy Voice' : 'In a world where my opponent wins [this one tiny rural State Senate Seat] puppies will be murdered and all the fields will be salted'
I'm not even following the VA races closely to hazard a guess; I can say, however, that I'm adjacent to Senate 31 and am bombarded with their preposterous ads.
On the one hand, former Prosecutor is going to defund all police.
On the other hand, a 'Youngkin' entrepreneur backing 15-week abortion (w/exceptions) is banning all abortions.
My favorite when I go to Planned Parenthood for the source of 'Banning ALL abortions', there's nothing but a 'scary' blurb with no content but 'scare links' to stuff that makes you think there must be evidence there.
The links:
What if means to be pro-life today: https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/washington-dc-scene/msica-y-sueos-46410
And this humdinger from Facebook in the year of our Lord 2014:
Hey Everyone,
Wanted to pass along the topic for this Sunday's mass group. After mass, we will be talking about what it means to be pro life in the world today. Our good friend, Lila Rose, a leader in the pro life movement, will be joining in and sharing some thoughts.
Also, we'll be praying the rosary before mass at 2:40 in the chapel and after the discussion, we'll be hitting up the Tombs for drinks, this time John Gallagher, will be buying....
Looking forward to seeing everyone and God bless,
Juan Pablo
---
So whatever happens, it's either because of defund the police or abortion.
Yeah, will be interested in your take as it shakes out. The article spends a fair bit of time illustrating how Reeves is being painted as the 'out of touch elitist' to Presley's earthy populist outsider. I have no particular insight into whether that's resonating among enough Republicans to either stay home or see Presley as 'one of us'.
But step one, to Saul's chagrin, is probably establishing one's Non-Metropolitan-Opera-Democrat bona fides.
What It Takes for a Democrat to Be Competitive in the Deep Red South
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/brandon-presley-mississippi-governor-race
“I think I’m very much in the mainstream of Mississippi political thought. I don’t support sex changes for minors, I don’t support boys playing girls’ sports,” he said. “I’m pro-life but I strongly believe in exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”
Plus being 2nd cousin to skinny Elvis probably helps a bit.
RCP has him losing to Reeves (R) by quite a lot; 538 has a couple polls showing -1 or even ... or losing by a lot.
Decided to get a Covid booster Thursday at 4. Figured I'd outsmart the process and sleep through the doldrum part and wake-up ready for Friday. Turns out the process wanted a full day for the doldrums, so Friday was spent at 80% with a low grade headache. No biggie, that's why I picked Thurs and not Friday... It did, however kill my energy to get the kit set-up for Black Powder opening day (today)... so I'll have to do that for another day.
Speaking of hunting, this is my favorite season for going into the woods and clearing the paths, pushing back the invasive species and harvesting the deadfall. There's a massive white oak (prob 200 yrs old - survived because its main trunk is split into two huge intertwined trunks, which makes it very difficult to take down safely) that dropped a branch bigger than most trees on the property. Unfortunately it dropped it right over the main trail. Fortunately there are probably enough BTUs in there to heat us for a winter. Unfortunately I've noticed that I can't work as long and as hard as I used to, and my boys are mostly grown up and not available to help.
Later, Lady Marchmaine and I are going to the local foofy dinner place that caters to what I can only describe as a vanishingly small and hidden population of, well, rural gentry... like us. Not fine dining, not a destination, more of a country kitchen for people who need foie gras and lardons.
Gaza is a hostile power on Israel's border; it refuses to accept it's own statehood. I am not aware of any Israeli claims to the land in the territory once they abandoned the settlements and pulled out 15-yrs ago.
The 'problem' still is that Gaza refuses to be Gaza. And that's why things they might have they don't and things they don't have they can't until they agree not to be an actively hostile power in a cease-fire (suspended) with Israel.
The number of things that change or don't have been changing or not for 75 odd years; there's nothing particularly new here.
Lee is correct that Gaza is a semi-state... an issue is that their elected governing body (replacing the PA) is a body that is incorporated for the liberation of Palestine, so it 'governing' of Gaza is incidental to it's mission. This is an important point, distinct even from the Palestinian Authority.
To your point, though, yes, Hamas is recognized as the defacto control of Gaza and has direct relations with Iran, Qatar and Turkey; indirect with Lebanon; and 'complex' relations with Syria, Jordan and Egypt.
For security reasons, imports into Gaza pass through Israeli customs; there isn't a general embargo on goods or exports (in ordinary circumstances), just certain imports (like arms).
We can look-up the current trade relations as summarized by the US Govt:
"Last published date: 2022-08-09
In October 1996, President Clinton signed a proclamation granting duty-free import status to items produced in or imported from the West Bank and Gaza. The EU has a preferential trade agreement with the West Bank and Gaza similar to that of the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences program. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has more restrictive trade agreements with Jordan and Egypt. "
To be blunt, Hamas can't be a reliable partner to negotiations to transform Gaza from a territory/proto-state into a state because it doesn't want that to happen -- so much so that partners like Egypt and Jordan *also* won't work with Hamas as such an actor precisely because they are destabilizing actors in Egypt and Jordan (and Syria). Separating Hamas from the Palestinian People (in Gaza) is perhaps possible as an intellectual exercise, but remains to be seen as a practical exercise; Hamas and the PA aren't even the same thing for negotiating / Governing perspectives... so a general 'settlement' of the status of Gaza isn't possible with Hamas.
Hence the situation, and, honestly the continuously bad interpretations of Hamas as an actor for the Palestinian people. But for the fact that it's not clear that the people of Gaza would ask for any other representation.
Gaza and Hamas can't build a state until Hamas wants to build a state in Gaza which it doesn't want to do and will actively subvert -- which is why the slow normalization with Israel by other Arab states like Saudi Arabia is inimical to it's objectives, and the likely spark for this particular attack.
I appreciate the folks who hope for a solution based upon a broad liberal democracy for the region; but I'm skeptical that there is a democratic framework that's sufficiently liberal or democratic to contain it.
Like, approvals and access to doctors is (more or less) the same, but the customer experience? Whooa, there's a lot we charge for (and I'd pay).
Now, the 'more or less' hides a lot; but there's probably a way to say that all surgery facilities are the same and the doctor/surgeon doesn't know who's under the knife for any given procedure... but the waiting rooms and recovery rooms and everything else? That's pay-go.
Exactly. If they were really doing an ethics/alignment Sim choosing that would come with a warning... and ideally a new set of options as you attempt to thread the terrible options you were given that made you think Breaking Your Oath was probably a good idea.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Three Day Weekend”
I should probably go hunting... I've been very lax, black powder season is almost over, and our venison supplies are perilously low.
On “About Last Night: Election 2023 Edition”
Yes, I'm answering my comment... that's my comment.
Focusing on 'Bans' isn't the next step... and that's ironic precisely because 'Consensus based Bans' would be 15-weeks plus exceptions.
"
Well, that's a conversation I've been having for over 25-yrs at this point... The Money faction was always driving the bus. But that's a big part of what I mean by Party ID. Money wanted the votes, but not the policies it would take to make the position viable Post Roe. Money wants 15-Week consensus to be a thing... I would never call it a Socially Moderate Pro-Life position though. Socially Moderate Pro-Abortion? Sure.
"
I saw that. While flashing a badge worked for Russet Perry...
"
Republicans in disarray!
"Now, I understand that the pro-life true believers see abortion as a totally separate issue from healthcare generally, but the reality is that they are deeply intertwined. Maybe it would be different if the GOP were trusted stewards of the healthcare system, and actually made efforts to fix the problems with it and help people in the process"
I think you've got it backwards, or maybe crosswise. And, interestingly, I also think this is an example of "Activist Disease" which is usually more common on the left.
'True Believers' definitely see it as a Health Care issue, as well as a broad pro-natal/pro-family issues (incluuding jobs, housing, family formation and all the other aspects of 'life')
'Activist Disease' is the inability to take a win, and pivot to what needs to be done next... instead there's too much invested in 'The Message' that all they can do is double down on the next cause regardless of whether it's related or a good next step. Repealing Roe was good, it was bad Constitutional Law. But the single minded focus on moving the Line on a 'Ban by the Week' is not persuasive given the larger issues that need addressing... but too much spent, too much invested, too many careers are involved to give it up and pivot -- better to lose and keep funding than risk changing.
'Party Identity' when being Pro-Life just meant signaling Party Identity it didn't matter what Pro-Life meant other than overturning Roe. Most aren't 'True Believers' and they aren't interested in the 'liberalish' things associated with the 'True Believers' so they are keen to make it go away -- hence the attempts by various Party leaders to coalesce around 15-weeks plus exceptions.
What's odd, as was displayed in VA31 is that 15-weeks plus exceptions is being portrayed as (literally in VA31) a Total Ban on abortions. To your point, I reckon, the R's as a 'Party ID' are identified by the 'Activists' and so 15-weeks plus Exceptions is not seen as a reliable bet.
So, I agree that R's are eating it post-Roe, but the irony is that 15-weeks (i.e. abortion on-demand, largely as it is *practiced* today) is losing in the messaging wars as 'extreme'. VA is 26-weeks plus exceptions (requires Doctors to sign-off after 26 weeks). That's the delta 26 to 15. The number of Abortions that would be restricted by 26 to 15? Approximately 0.
On the other hand, I totally agree that the Republican party is a complete shambles on this and other issues, so I'm not particularly invested in their success/failure... Abortion as a policy issue is no longer about Roe/Judges, but about Health Care, Housing, Family Formation, Capturing Productivity Gains for Workers, etc... it's not a supply-side issue, but a demand-side issue.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/6/2023”
Looks like we're gonna live in a Baby robbing world.
On “231 BPM”
Most apps accepting Biological passwords has been a big help.
However, I've been burned by apps (usually Travel after the long Covid Hiatus) that don't get used all the time then they update and pretend that their security protocols can't possibly transfer your old biologic password until you log-in manually and re-set your bio password. Usually this happens with a line behind you.
Basically, for an app you rarely use, like healthcare app... the bio-password is reset so often as not to provide the longterm value of having a bio-password.
"
For 100 in Biological Beats:
231 BPM
"What would be my BPM if Lady Marchmaine told me we were expecting our 7th, Alex"
Glad you're feeling better, and I'm sure you young folk can easily handle your new little baby... congrats.
On “That Time I Drove a Tesla for a Week”
Did the same thing and rented a Tesla for a weekend... never found a place to charge it (i.e. the end-points didn't have EV charging) but never really needed to charge it, so just paid the fine when I returned it.
I thought it drove well, the vehicle 'awareness' system was pretty good -- but not something I'd trust to drive itself -- and the GUI / Touchscreen was noticeably better than all the horrible touch screens that the major carriers have tried (and failed) to build well.
That said, most I'd consider right now would be a PHEV... fine with me to offset gas use, but I'm using gas as a reliable fuel source for business trips and any other trip until EV tech is better and even more ubiquitous.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/6/2023”
Do you really want to live in a world where criminals rob not only parents but BABIES too?
How will you go to the Dentist when ALL THE DOCTORS are in prison?
"
Yeah, we're well past 'negative ads' and fully in alternative reality ads narrated by 'Movie Guy Voice' : 'In a world where my opponent wins [this one tiny rural State Senate Seat] puppies will be murdered and all the fields will be salted'
"
It's just a tiny little pinch of incense.
"
There's no national divorce. But the right is getting the Jews in the settlement.
"
I'm not even following the VA races closely to hazard a guess; I can say, however, that I'm adjacent to Senate 31 and am bombarded with their preposterous ads.
On the one hand, former Prosecutor is going to defund all police.
On the other hand, a 'Youngkin' entrepreneur backing 15-week abortion (w/exceptions) is banning all abortions.
My favorite when I go to Planned Parenthood for the source of 'Banning ALL abortions', there's nothing but a 'scary' blurb with no content but 'scare links' to stuff that makes you think there must be evidence there.
The links:
What if means to be pro-life today: https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/washington-dc-scene/msica-y-sueos-46410
And this humdinger from Facebook in the year of our Lord 2014:
Hey Everyone,
Wanted to pass along the topic for this Sunday's mass group. After mass, we will be talking about what it means to be pro life in the world today. Our good friend, Lila Rose, a leader in the pro life movement, will be joining in and sharing some thoughts.
Also, we'll be praying the rosary before mass at 2:40 in the chapel and after the discussion, we'll be hitting up the Tombs for drinks, this time John Gallagher, will be buying....
Looking forward to seeing everyone and God bless,
Juan Pablo
---
So whatever happens, it's either because of defund the police or abortion.
"
Yeah, will be interested in your take as it shakes out. The article spends a fair bit of time illustrating how Reeves is being painted as the 'out of touch elitist' to Presley's earthy populist outsider. I have no particular insight into whether that's resonating among enough Republicans to either stay home or see Presley as 'one of us'.
But step one, to Saul's chagrin, is probably establishing one's Non-Metropolitan-Opera-Democrat bona fides.
"
Sure, I get it... what's even the point of electing a 30-degree course corrected Gavin Newsom?
Other than the fact that 30-degree Gavin doesn't exist, so what's to keep Gavin heading True North on any point at all?
But yes, I agree that Regional R's and D's aren't really the solution to a multi-party option after we ditch FPTP voting.
"
Probably going to lose, yes. But, if you thought you might want to win?
https://gov.louisiana.gov/
"
What It Takes for a Democrat to Be Competitive in the Deep Red South
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/brandon-presley-mississippi-governor-race
“I think I’m very much in the mainstream of Mississippi political thought. I don’t support sex changes for minors, I don’t support boys playing girls’ sports,” he said. “I’m pro-life but I strongly believe in exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”
Plus being 2nd cousin to skinny Elvis probably helps a bit.
RCP has him losing to Reeves (R) by quite a lot; 538 has a couple polls showing -1 or even ... or losing by a lot.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Dream Logic”
Made a lame twitter post to get the picture out there of our Ent Tree.
"
Decided to get a Covid booster Thursday at 4. Figured I'd outsmart the process and sleep through the doldrum part and wake-up ready for Friday. Turns out the process wanted a full day for the doldrums, so Friday was spent at 80% with a low grade headache. No biggie, that's why I picked Thurs and not Friday... It did, however kill my energy to get the kit set-up for Black Powder opening day (today)... so I'll have to do that for another day.
Speaking of hunting, this is my favorite season for going into the woods and clearing the paths, pushing back the invasive species and harvesting the deadfall. There's a massive white oak (prob 200 yrs old - survived because its main trunk is split into two huge intertwined trunks, which makes it very difficult to take down safely) that dropped a branch bigger than most trees on the property. Unfortunately it dropped it right over the main trail. Fortunately there are probably enough BTUs in there to heat us for a winter. Unfortunately I've noticed that I can't work as long and as hard as I used to, and my boys are mostly grown up and not available to help.
Later, Lady Marchmaine and I are going to the local foofy dinner place that caters to what I can only describe as a vanishingly small and hidden population of, well, rural gentry... like us. Not fine dining, not a destination, more of a country kitchen for people who need foie gras and lardons.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/30/2023”
The tech companies I've worked for have developed an astonishing array of feelings for things over the past decade.
Citizens United: a modern day fairy tale where the corporations actually did turn in to real persons.
"
Gaza is a hostile power on Israel's border; it refuses to accept it's own statehood. I am not aware of any Israeli claims to the land in the territory once they abandoned the settlements and pulled out 15-yrs ago.
The 'problem' still is that Gaza refuses to be Gaza. And that's why things they might have they don't and things they don't have they can't until they agree not to be an actively hostile power in a cease-fire (suspended) with Israel.
The number of things that change or don't have been changing or not for 75 odd years; there's nothing particularly new here.
"
Lee is correct that Gaza is a semi-state... an issue is that their elected governing body (replacing the PA) is a body that is incorporated for the liberation of Palestine, so it 'governing' of Gaza is incidental to it's mission. This is an important point, distinct even from the Palestinian Authority.
To your point, though, yes, Hamas is recognized as the defacto control of Gaza and has direct relations with Iran, Qatar and Turkey; indirect with Lebanon; and 'complex' relations with Syria, Jordan and Egypt.
For security reasons, imports into Gaza pass through Israeli customs; there isn't a general embargo on goods or exports (in ordinary circumstances), just certain imports (like arms).
We can look-up the current trade relations as summarized by the US Govt:
"Last published date: 2022-08-09
In October 1996, President Clinton signed a proclamation granting duty-free import status to items produced in or imported from the West Bank and Gaza. The EU has a preferential trade agreement with the West Bank and Gaza similar to that of the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences program. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has more restrictive trade agreements with Jordan and Egypt. "
To be blunt, Hamas can't be a reliable partner to negotiations to transform Gaza from a territory/proto-state into a state because it doesn't want that to happen -- so much so that partners like Egypt and Jordan *also* won't work with Hamas as such an actor precisely because they are destabilizing actors in Egypt and Jordan (and Syria). Separating Hamas from the Palestinian People (in Gaza) is perhaps possible as an intellectual exercise, but remains to be seen as a practical exercise; Hamas and the PA aren't even the same thing for negotiating / Governing perspectives... so a general 'settlement' of the status of Gaza isn't possible with Hamas.
Hence the situation, and, honestly the continuously bad interpretations of Hamas as an actor for the Palestinian people. But for the fact that it's not clear that the people of Gaza would ask for any other representation.
Gaza and Hamas can't build a state until Hamas wants to build a state in Gaza which it doesn't want to do and will actively subvert -- which is why the slow normalization with Israel by other Arab states like Saudi Arabia is inimical to it's objectives, and the likely spark for this particular attack.
I appreciate the folks who hope for a solution based upon a broad liberal democracy for the region; but I'm skeptical that there is a democratic framework that's sufficiently liberal or democratic to contain it.
On “The Weight of Society”
What if it's 'cosmetic' tiers.
Like, approvals and access to doctors is (more or less) the same, but the customer experience? Whooa, there's a lot we charge for (and I'd pay).
Now, the 'more or less' hides a lot; but there's probably a way to say that all surgery facilities are the same and the doctor/surgeon doesn't know who's under the knife for any given procedure... but the waiting rooms and recovery rooms and everything else? That's pay-go.
On “Baldur’s Gate III: On Evil Making Things Less Fun”
Exactly. If they were really doing an ethics/alignment Sim choosing that would come with a warning... and ideally a new set of options as you attempt to thread the terrible options you were given that made you think Breaking Your Oath was probably a good idea.