He raises a good point about the trustworthiness problem. Is he the right person to raise it, right now, in this moment? Suffice to say I understand the counter arguments. The proof I suppose will be in the pudding. My household hasn't canceled our subscription (not yet anyway, my wife pays for it). I will be on the lookout for major improvements in quality and credibility.
But, you raised something else. I randomly heard about the Concord thing due to an offhand comment on a substack I don't regularly read. What is your take on that? I googled to try to better understand it but all I found were official reports mentioning the shut down but talking around what went wrong and screeds on reddit, none of which were particularly illuminating.
I agree. I also think a big but rarely remarked upon asymmetry is that the right is a lot easier to placate with signals and messages (and antics) alone.
Just further pondering your point about what era we're in, I guess I would say something without clear, recent precedent. The reason I say that is that in those past instances you reference politics was still something people did, sometimes out on the street (as opposed to something you tweet), in solidarity with each other, and they kept at it over a relatively long haul. That's true of right and left. It's hard for me to envision that when all directions and forces push towards lower solidarity, lower levels of trust.
But on a larger level I think the ongoing crisis across the developed world come down to the three i's, up from two before the pandemic: immigration, (post) industrial economies, and now add inflation. The mainstream left and right haven't responded to any of these particularly well anywhere, (though inflation may fall off the list soon) and in a democracy that gets you voted out of office.
Both you and Matt Yglesias. Here's the first of his 27 takes on the election posted this morning:
The most important context for this race — what broadly distinguishes the family of takes you should pay attention to from those you should dismiss — is what’s happening internationally. The UK Conservatives got thrashed recently. The Canadian Liberals are set to get thrashed soon. The incumbent center-left party lost its first post-Covid election in New Zealand, and the incumbent center-right party lost its first post-Covid elections in Australia. The incumbent coalition in Germany is hideously unpopular. This means that if you’re asking “How did Democrats blow it?” or “Why is this even close?” you’re asking the wrong question.
On the larger point I agree with you and that's what I was getting at in my previous comment. I don't think the current state of the Republican party leadership and other officials is one where you can distinguish the policies from the people.
Eh I wouldn't be that hard on Koz, disagree with him as much as I may. Deep in this piece is an echo of what a responsible conservatism might look like. It probably wouldn't be something I'd find a lot to agree with and I'd imagine based on your views that you'd have even less.
Where I think he is fundamentally wrong is the belief that Donald Trump, or the type of conservatism that the GOP has degenerated into, can ever be remotely constructive. He says his goal is to hold Democrats accountable but I would say that Trump and the Republican party are fundamentally incapable of doing that even if they win. Look at the various strains of charlatans and know-nothings that have come to completely dominate the GOP caucus in Congress. These bizarre personalities can serve as a kind of f*ck you to the 'libs' or 'elites' or whatever right wing bete noir they were elected to oppose. But they're fundamentally incapable of accomplishing anything on the border or the economy or the other issues mentioned in the OP, nor even of creating an appealing alternative vision of what the values should inform government decisions.
I kind of wonder how many of these words will still be floating around in, say 2030. Like... do gay people really appreciate being referred to as 'queer' in mainstream publications and the like? That ain't my battle to fight but I know I'd never call someone that. I also can't imagine referring to a group of human beings as 'BIPOCs' or something similar without it being received as strange and disrespectful.
I agree that the case against her became way overstated, and that there's a certain 'the party will unite behind anyone minimally acceptable' factor (a bar Harris easily clears) particularly when the opponent is Trump.
But... her favorables were even worse than Biden's for most of the administration, her primary run was a total failure, and she never seemed to rise to any of the opportunities she was given as VP. In fairness to her on the last point she seems to have been set up for failure until she kind of disappeared off the radar. But these are all just well established facts, not made up false equivalence with the Republicans or sanewashing crazy right wing talking points.
I'm also saying these things having already cast my ballot for her last week. I'm rooting for her.
Given that a year ago and more recently than that she was thought to be an albatross I think she's done quite well. She's turned a race that was being lost into a coin flip going into the final stretch. That's not nothing. And I say all of this as someone who can think of quite a few others I'd have picked over her in a primary.
It's just a tough, tough anti incumbent environment.
I won't rub it in. When Snyder owned the team we were on the receiving end of that kind of thing all the time. My oldest son is on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon and I have gotten several lectures from him about needing to stop being so negative. My wife dies with laughter every time. As if a 7 year old has any idea what I've been through.
Still, if this continues, he might convince me to start using the word 'Commanders' whatever that even is (HTTR, etc.).
It's certainly possible they'll be better at it. And even if the chances of some deep, illiberal paradigm shift or failure of the system to hold up against a Trump engineered constitutional crisis are "only" 10 or 15% it's insane to me how many Americans are apparently willing to play those odds.
That said, I don't see Trump becoming any less venal, his charlatans getting better at bending the government for big picture ideological rather than short term self interested purposes, or the Republicans in Congress becoming less fractious. Chances are that in 2026 the House would be taken back by the Democrats, we'd have all manner of massive resistance to anything vaguely associated with Trumpism from day 1, and the courts, while conservative and more charitable than they have any business being, do a dance where they never give Trump quite as much as he demands.
Which isn't me trying to defend it at all, it will still be deeply damaging. Absolute best case scenario is another 4 years of playing Russian roulette with the gun to our own heads, hoping to somehow get away with it.
My guess is that the public policy will be broadly bad but, like last time, underwhelm, while the rewarding of total nihilism will be far worse and have much further reaching ramifications this time around.
I'm not convinced by that. My view is that there are certain population level differences between the sexes that may always result in some incongruities in what kinds of education and careers are pursued. The more free and egalitarian societies become the more pronounced the differences seem to be. Which is fine. The point of the liberal project is for people to be free to pursue their goals as they see fit without arbitrary constraints, not to have a spreadsheet showing perfect demographic balance in every aspect of human life. All we can do is open the doors, which we have done, but you can't force people through them.
My take is that sex polarization is downstream of educational polarization. I agree with Chip's sentiments that a lot of this merits a 'get over it' kind of response.
But I also think it's well passed time to take the thumb off the scale for women in academia and the work force. College campuses are well over half female now and women are very well represented in high prestige fields like law and medicine. Sex is no longer an obstacle to the highest levels of achievement. Which is awesome and should be celebrated. But now it's time to declare victory and move on.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Yea the timing is, as my son would say, 'sus.'
"
He raises a good point about the trustworthiness problem. Is he the right person to raise it, right now, in this moment? Suffice to say I understand the counter arguments. The proof I suppose will be in the pudding. My household hasn't canceled our subscription (not yet anyway, my wife pays for it). I will be on the lookout for major improvements in quality and credibility.
But, you raised something else. I randomly heard about the Concord thing due to an offhand comment on a substack I don't regularly read. What is your take on that? I googled to try to better understand it but all I found were official reports mentioning the shut down but talking around what went wrong and screeds on reddit, none of which were particularly illuminating.
"
Bezos weighs in on the Bezos situation:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
I always thought the buy Greenland thing was an underrated idea.
On “What If Trump Wins?”
I agree. I also think a big but rarely remarked upon asymmetry is that the right is a lot easier to placate with signals and messages (and antics) alone.
"
Just further pondering your point about what era we're in, I guess I would say something without clear, recent precedent. The reason I say that is that in those past instances you reference politics was still something people did, sometimes out on the street (as opposed to something you tweet), in solidarity with each other, and they kept at it over a relatively long haul. That's true of right and left. It's hard for me to envision that when all directions and forces push towards lower solidarity, lower levels of trust.
"
He makes 26 other points besides that one.
But on a larger level I think the ongoing crisis across the developed world come down to the three i's, up from two before the pandemic: immigration, (post) industrial economies, and now add inflation. The mainstream left and right haven't responded to any of these particularly well anywhere, (though inflation may fall off the list soon) and in a democracy that gets you voted out of office.
"
Both you and Matt Yglesias. Here's the first of his 27 takes on the election posted this morning:
The most important context for this race — what broadly distinguishes the family of takes you should pay attention to from those you should dismiss — is what’s happening internationally. The UK Conservatives got thrashed recently. The Canadian Liberals are set to get thrashed soon. The incumbent center-left party lost its first post-Covid election in New Zealand, and the incumbent center-right party lost its first post-Covid elections in Australia. The incumbent coalition in Germany is hideously unpopular. This means that if you’re asking “How did Democrats blow it?” or “Why is this even close?” you’re asking the wrong question.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/27-takes-on-the-2024-election
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
I'm talking about the beef between Phil and Koz.
On the larger point I agree with you and that's what I was getting at in my previous comment. I don't think the current state of the Republican party leadership and other officials is one where you can distinguish the policies from the people.
"
Fair enough. I'll stay out of the personal beefs.
"
Eh I wouldn't be that hard on Koz, disagree with him as much as I may. Deep in this piece is an echo of what a responsible conservatism might look like. It probably wouldn't be something I'd find a lot to agree with and I'd imagine based on your views that you'd have even less.
Where I think he is fundamentally wrong is the belief that Donald Trump, or the type of conservatism that the GOP has degenerated into, can ever be remotely constructive. He says his goal is to hold Democrats accountable but I would say that Trump and the Republican party are fundamentally incapable of doing that even if they win. Look at the various strains of charlatans and know-nothings that have come to completely dominate the GOP caucus in Congress. These bizarre personalities can serve as a kind of f*ck you to the 'libs' or 'elites' or whatever right wing bete noir they were elected to oppose. But they're fundamentally incapable of accomplishing anything on the border or the economy or the other issues mentioned in the OP, nor even of creating an appealing alternative vision of what the values should inform government decisions.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Gas prices projected to drop below $3 a gallon. Take what the election gods giveth.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/falling-oil-prices-may-help-push-gas-below-3-a-gallon-for-the-first-time-since-2021-526b95cd
On “What If Trump Wins?”
Sure, I've read the same. Though I feel like the Nate Silvers, etc. have also said the possibility of that is pretty low.
"
I think the stories are probably already written for anything not a surprise blowout.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
I kind of wonder how many of these words will still be floating around in, say 2030. Like... do gay people really appreciate being referred to as 'queer' in mainstream publications and the like? That ain't my battle to fight but I know I'd never call someone that. I also can't imagine referring to a group of human beings as 'BIPOCs' or something similar without it being received as strange and disrespectful.
On “What If Trump Wins?”
I agree that the case against her became way overstated, and that there's a certain 'the party will unite behind anyone minimally acceptable' factor (a bar Harris easily clears) particularly when the opponent is Trump.
But... her favorables were even worse than Biden's for most of the administration, her primary run was a total failure, and she never seemed to rise to any of the opportunities she was given as VP. In fairness to her on the last point she seems to have been set up for failure until she kind of disappeared off the radar. But these are all just well established facts, not made up false equivalence with the Republicans or sanewashing crazy right wing talking points.
I'm also saying these things having already cast my ballot for her last week. I'm rooting for her.
"
I agree that this is by no means over.
"
Given that a year ago and more recently than that she was thought to be an albatross I think she's done quite well. She's turned a race that was being lost into a coin flip going into the final stretch. That's not nothing. And I say all of this as someone who can think of quite a few others I'd have picked over her in a primary.
It's just a tough, tough anti incumbent environment.
On “How Times Have Changed”
I won't rub it in. When Snyder owned the team we were on the receiving end of that kind of thing all the time. My oldest son is on the Jayden Daniels bandwagon and I have gotten several lectures from him about needing to stop being so negative. My wife dies with laughter every time. As if a 7 year old has any idea what I've been through.
Still, if this continues, he might convince me to start using the word 'Commanders' whatever that even is (HTTR, etc.).
"
Ruined the game? There was some incredible football just yesterday!
On “What If Trump Wins?”
As if Americans even know who Berlusconi is. Or I guess was.
"
It's certainly possible they'll be better at it. And even if the chances of some deep, illiberal paradigm shift or failure of the system to hold up against a Trump engineered constitutional crisis are "only" 10 or 15% it's insane to me how many Americans are apparently willing to play those odds.
That said, I don't see Trump becoming any less venal, his charlatans getting better at bending the government for big picture ideological rather than short term self interested purposes, or the Republicans in Congress becoming less fractious. Chances are that in 2026 the House would be taken back by the Democrats, we'd have all manner of massive resistance to anything vaguely associated with Trumpism from day 1, and the courts, while conservative and more charitable than they have any business being, do a dance where they never give Trump quite as much as he demands.
Which isn't me trying to defend it at all, it will still be deeply damaging. Absolute best case scenario is another 4 years of playing Russian roulette with the gun to our own heads, hoping to somehow get away with it.
"
My guess is that the public policy will be broadly bad but, like last time, underwhelm, while the rewarding of total nihilism will be far worse and have much further reaching ramifications this time around.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/21/2024”
I'm not convinced by that. My view is that there are certain population level differences between the sexes that may always result in some incongruities in what kinds of education and careers are pursued. The more free and egalitarian societies become the more pronounced the differences seem to be. Which is fine. The point of the liberal project is for people to be free to pursue their goals as they see fit without arbitrary constraints, not to have a spreadsheet showing perfect demographic balance in every aspect of human life. All we can do is open the doors, which we have done, but you can't force people through them.
"
My take is that sex polarization is downstream of educational polarization. I agree with Chip's sentiments that a lot of this merits a 'get over it' kind of response.
But I also think it's well passed time to take the thumb off the scale for women in academia and the work force. College campuses are well over half female now and women are very well represented in high prestige fields like law and medicine. Sex is no longer an obstacle to the highest levels of achievement. Which is awesome and should be celebrated. But now it's time to declare victory and move on.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.