Mark Halperin is trying to BS his way on a trending wave back into civil society, and we should leave his abusive self exiled to wherever he's been and not let him back in
The RNC being immediately following means whatever good will Trump would get from the shooting immediately gets washed by a week straight of hardcore political coverage, and frankly that night one lineup was a big bag of nope for non-MAGA voters. The Vance pick is going to be a drag for suburbs, women, and several other demos. The assassination attempt is a big part of Trump lore now, but if you aren't big on Trump lore it probably won't have a lot of "hearts and minds" changing.
I was talking to someone yesterday about how everything that could possibly go right for Trump is going right for Trump, but it is July. You want everything going your way in late Sept/Oct, not have your high point in July. More and more polling showing that despite the Biden wall-to-wall bad coverage and now the shooting Trump's polling ceiling is starting to move from cliche to immutable law of the universe. He is still favorite to win this election, but far from over, and frankly - as one Republican operative was talking to me about over the weekend - there is a huge over confidence trap waiting to test the Trump campaign that has never run as a favorite. Some GOP folks are taking the Vance pick (brings nothing politically, abrasive, ran far behind Trump in a relatively safe state in his own election) as such a confidence thing. We will see
Fascist is the wrong word, & meaningless term in current environment where that nomenclatures been beat to death twice over
Getting your VP selection is declaration of faction power. The edgelord-techbro oligarchy Vance represents sees their opening to ride Trumps wake to power
Quote
Bill Kristol
No surprise. The most self-consciously and unapologetically fascist-adjacent figures in Trump's orbit--Carlson, Musk, Sacks, and Thiel--were for Vance.
The point of Hillbilly Elegy wasn't to highlight rural problems or right-wing politics
The point of Hillbilly Elegy was to highlight how awesome JD Vance was to the right kinds of people (cause without the heliography of that book he's just another Ivy League law school grad and VC bro) for having overcome rural problems and right-wing politics, which is even more craven now that once he got into politics, he massages right-wing politics with one hand while seeking power with the other.
As I have put on social media over the last few months in predicting Vance would be the VP, you have to look at is as Trump does, which is to say none of the usual political reasons for a running mate. He want total loyalty, someone really good on camera who fights and pushes the envelope, and he wants the Theil-Tech Bro money networks Vance is tapped into. We've basically had it confirmed it was Vance for weeks now but everyone sat on it cause confirmation doesn't work with Trump, he could wake up this morning and change his mind. But especially the last 3 weeks there was no doubt it was Vance.
If you removed the raw naked ambition and hypocrisy from the personage of JD Vance you'd be left with nothing but a puddle on the floor, as that is all the man is comprised of outside of the otherwise base minerals of the standard human body, plus his eye liner.
FWIW, I still think most - perhaps a vast majority - of Biden voters worried or otherwise will show up to vote for him or at least against Trump. I suspect this number and cohort is under polling right now because they are in "worried" stage and not in "have to decided right now this minute" stage yet which means they don't want to talk about it whereas Trump's much ballyhoo'd "polling ceiling" is because his folks are loud and proud all the time in all weather.
Will the 50K-100K of those voters in PA, WI, NV, GA, NC, MI, and AZ that are going to decide this election do that? That is the question. 44K of them decided 2020, 80K of them decided 2016, often by who did and didn't stay home, and by voting against a candidate more than for one. We will see.
*extreme Bones McCoy voice* "Dammit, man, I'm running a website here, not a time machine..."
In all seriousness, I think you'll see the pattern hold though. The public, or at least the polling public, has been ahead of the coverage on concerns about Biden so there wasn't a huge swing even with massive shift in coverage because they were already where the press is just now getting, and Trump's much-discussed polling "ceiling" also seems to be in place and he isn't really getting a huge boost from any of this, leaving the fundamentals of the 2024 race pretty much as they have been all along.
Additionally, when you point out that perhaps behind Biden being too old is people being afraid of “if something happens to Biden, the black lady is in charge”, they will howl and deny.
Its fair point, there is "Biden is too old" discourse that doesn't stray into that, but all the folks that are doing "Biden is too old and should be replaced by Whitmer/Newsom/Pete" definitely are by denying Kamala Harris is the only alternative should something happen to Biden.
The state of the GOP as it currently exists since Trump took it over is - if you are still in the Republican Party - you are either openly supportive of all things Trumpian and authoritative, or you are enabling all things Trumpian and authoritative since you would have left by now.
Of Trump's 47 pct of garnered vote, somewhere between 30-40% of that 47% - Trumps "shot someone on 5th Ave" base - are as you say, clearly knowing and clearly wanting. Maybe the numbers a tad higher, that is open to discussion. Then there are the ignorant - willing and otherwise -, uninformed, or just don't care percentage that have various reasons from grievance to "what the hell" to whatever else the last thing they thought before voting that is the minority of his garnered voters, but are the marginal difference between him winning and not winning.
There is a lot of noise around this but there are two truths as the land lays right now:
1) Biden isn't stepping aside short of - in his very own words - and Act of God
2) if he doesn't step aside, the only realistic mechanism to remove him is at the convention
That's it, until number 1) changes you either do 2) or shut up about it, which no one will because we live in the time we do.
To the folks who don't intake politics - and unlike us who discuss, dissect, and think on these things purposefully and for reasons - there is the basic issue of Trump's bad but we've heard that for 9 years and its old news verses the bright shinny clanging object of let's dog pile on Joe Biden video clips. The old saw about "Presidential elections come down to who more people want to see on their screens every day for the next four years" has a lot of truth to it, and relentless Trump dulls folks' senses on his worst attributes, or at least has made them familiar enough to become a perverse new normal.
We have the data that answers that question: Meaningless NFL games are keeping their ratings all the way to the end, even blowouts, because the gamblers have to watch to the end. Folks are invested and won't turn it off.
Somewhere in there we have to acknowledge that online, professionally hosted, monetized fantasy football was just a placeholder for legalized gambling to come forth. Doing the old Yahoo! group fantasy leagues where you still got everyone together for a draft or whatever didn't migrate to that, but the accusations that FF was a gateway drug to full blow gambling is not without merit. And I was for legalizing gambling on sports; at the same time we can be honest how it irrevocable changes fandom. The fastest way to got from your Tier 1 to Tier 5 fan is having money on the line.
I had to stop playing fantasy football because it was utterly ruining my enjoyment of the games and sport as a whole. I have not regretted this decision one little bit.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/22/2024”
TSN post up on this topic
On “From The Los Angeles Times: Schiff calls on Biden to drop out, citing ‘serious concerns’ he can’t win”
Mark Halperin is trying to BS his way on a trending wave back into civil society, and we should leave his abusive self exiled to wherever he's been and not let him back in
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/15/2024”
The RNC being immediately following means whatever good will Trump would get from the shooting immediately gets washed by a week straight of hardcore political coverage, and frankly that night one lineup was a big bag of nope for non-MAGA voters. The Vance pick is going to be a drag for suburbs, women, and several other demos. The assassination attempt is a big part of Trump lore now, but if you aren't big on Trump lore it probably won't have a lot of "hearts and minds" changing.
I was talking to someone yesterday about how everything that could possibly go right for Trump is going right for Trump, but it is July. You want everything going your way in late Sept/Oct, not have your high point in July. More and more polling showing that despite the Biden wall-to-wall bad coverage and now the shooting Trump's polling ceiling is starting to move from cliche to immutable law of the universe. He is still favorite to win this election, but far from over, and frankly - as one Republican operative was talking to me about over the weekend - there is a huge over confidence trap waiting to test the Trump campaign that has never run as a favorite. Some GOP folks are taking the Vance pick (brings nothing politically, abrasive, ran far behind Trump in a relatively safe state in his own election) as such a confidence thing. We will see
On “Trump Picks Senator JD Vance as Running Mate”
Tweeted this earlier but it applies to this as well and overlaps:
Fascist is the wrong word, & meaningless term in current environment where that nomenclatures been beat to death twice over
Getting your VP selection is declaration of faction power. The edgelord-techbro oligarchy Vance represents sees their opening to ride Trumps wake to power
Quote
Bill Kristol
No surprise. The most self-consciously and unapologetically fascist-adjacent figures in Trump's orbit--Carlson, Musk, Sacks, and Thiel--were for Vance.
"
The point of Hillbilly Elegy wasn't to highlight rural problems or right-wing politics
The point of Hillbilly Elegy was to highlight how awesome JD Vance was to the right kinds of people (cause without the heliography of that book he's just another Ivy League law school grad and VC bro) for having overcome rural problems and right-wing politics, which is even more craven now that once he got into politics, he massages right-wing politics with one hand while seeking power with the other.
"
As I have put on social media over the last few months in predicting Vance would be the VP, you have to look at is as Trump does, which is to say none of the usual political reasons for a running mate. He want total loyalty, someone really good on camera who fights and pushes the envelope, and he wants the Theil-Tech Bro money networks Vance is tapped into. We've basically had it confirmed it was Vance for weeks now but everyone sat on it cause confirmation doesn't work with Trump, he could wake up this morning and change his mind. But especially the last 3 weeks there was no doubt it was Vance.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/15/2024”
If you removed the raw naked ambition and hypocrisy from the personage of JD Vance you'd be left with nothing but a puddle on the floor, as that is all the man is comprised of outside of the otherwise base minerals of the standard human body, plus his eye liner.
On “From WaPo: Post-debate Battleground State Polling”
You will convince the populace long before you convince Joe Biden, so - in my humble but accurate opinion - therein should lay the effort.
"
FWIW, I still think most - perhaps a vast majority - of Biden voters worried or otherwise will show up to vote for him or at least against Trump. I suspect this number and cohort is under polling right now because they are in "worried" stage and not in "have to decided right now this minute" stage yet which means they don't want to talk about it whereas Trump's much ballyhoo'd "polling ceiling" is because his folks are loud and proud all the time in all weather.
Will the 50K-100K of those voters in PA, WI, NV, GA, NC, MI, and AZ that are going to decide this election do that? That is the question. 44K of them decided 2020, 80K of them decided 2016, often by who did and didn't stay home, and by voting against a candidate more than for one. We will see.
"
*extreme Bones McCoy voice* "Dammit, man, I'm running a website here, not a time machine..."
In all seriousness, I think you'll see the pattern hold though. The public, or at least the polling public, has been ahead of the coverage on concerns about Biden so there wasn't a huge swing even with massive shift in coverage because they were already where the press is just now getting, and Trump's much-discussed polling "ceiling" also seems to be in place and he isn't really getting a huge boost from any of this, leaving the fundamentals of the 2024 race pretty much as they have been all along.
On “The Arrow of Time, Lodged Deep in Our Political Posterior”
Its fair point, there is "Biden is too old" discourse that doesn't stray into that, but all the folks that are doing "Biden is too old and should be replaced by Whitmer/Newsom/Pete" definitely are by denying Kamala Harris is the only alternative should something happen to Biden.
"
mostly
"
The state of the GOP as it currently exists since Trump took it over is - if you are still in the Republican Party - you are either openly supportive of all things Trumpian and authoritative, or you are enabling all things Trumpian and authoritative since you would have left by now.
"
Of Trump's 47 pct of garnered vote, somewhere between 30-40% of that 47% - Trumps "shot someone on 5th Ave" base - are as you say, clearly knowing and clearly wanting. Maybe the numbers a tad higher, that is open to discussion. Then there are the ignorant - willing and otherwise -, uninformed, or just don't care percentage that have various reasons from grievance to "what the hell" to whatever else the last thing they thought before voting that is the minority of his garnered voters, but are the marginal difference between him winning and not winning.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/8/2024”
There is a lot of noise around this but there are two truths as the land lays right now:
1) Biden isn't stepping aside short of - in his very own words - and Act of God
2) if he doesn't step aside, the only realistic mechanism to remove him is at the convention
That's it, until number 1) changes you either do 2) or shut up about it, which no one will because we live in the time we do.
On “Dems in Disarray! No, For Reals This Time”
As someone who does some talking heading on TV and other media from time to time you are correct.
"
To the folks who don't intake politics - and unlike us who discuss, dissect, and think on these things purposefully and for reasons - there is the basic issue of Trump's bad but we've heard that for 9 years and its old news verses the bright shinny clanging object of let's dog pile on Joe Biden video clips. The old saw about "Presidential elections come down to who more people want to see on their screens every day for the next four years" has a lot of truth to it, and relentless Trump dulls folks' senses on his worst attributes, or at least has made them familiar enough to become a perverse new normal.
"
Better idea: TSN post up now here at OT with the full video for your watching and commenting pleasure:
Joe Biden Interview with George Stephanopoulos “I’m still in good shape”
On “Political Junkies Verses Sports Fans: Who Is More in Touch with Reality?”
We have the data that answers that question: Meaningless NFL games are keeping their ratings all the way to the end, even blowouts, because the gamblers have to watch to the end. Folks are invested and won't turn it off.
"
Somewhere in there we have to acknowledge that online, professionally hosted, monetized fantasy football was just a placeholder for legalized gambling to come forth. Doing the old Yahoo! group fantasy leagues where you still got everyone together for a draft or whatever didn't migrate to that, but the accusations that FF was a gateway drug to full blow gambling is not without merit. And I was for legalizing gambling on sports; at the same time we can be honest how it irrevocable changes fandom. The fastest way to got from your Tier 1 to Tier 5 fan is having money on the line.
"
I had to stop playing fantasy football because it was utterly ruining my enjoyment of the games and sport as a whole. I have not regretted this decision one little bit.
On “Open Mic for the week of 7/1/2024”
I, for one, appreciate it when folks tell me what they are loudly, with bunting framing it.
"
When I saw it Thursday, I thought it was one of the worst opinion pieces I've ever read. I haven't changed my mind.
On “Fourth of July Group Activity: Civics Quiz”
Yeah the one question I asked the phrasing was wonky and threw me off, and I went all of the above instead of just two of the three
"
10 questions randomized out of a list of 100 is what it claims