But even in game theory terms, Jay, your argument fails. The game is iterated. Ok. But if the GOP does this stuff and has no fear of retaliation then they do it more. If your point is that the game is iterated then, in game theory, that would call for defecting more until a new equilibrium is reached. Especially in the case of the moderate left where public opinion is overwhelmingly in its favor (as contrasted to the right which is at a notable disadvantage or the far left or far right which are wildly unpopular).
So if the game is iterated then the strategic/logical response is to "defect".
Likewise when you talk about moving from a high trust society to a low trust one, for many of the groups you're talking about the past society was not high trust, it was a boot on the face. The society we're moving to is more trusting than the one in the past.
And, specifically to the example you put up, it's interesting that you are lumping main stream media actors doing their main stream media thing with the opposite side to Trump and the right. It's like the Covington bruhaha all over again.
Completely empty politico piece to take up space. The "freakout" dems quoted all remain anonymous. Pieces like this feel like they appear discussing both sides with monotonous regularity as far as I can tell. You gotta fill that webpage every day after all.
Camping on the quad in spring at the end of the semester when, likely, your grade is determined and your classwork is generally wrapped up is one thing, Jay. Camping on the quad at the beginning of the semester when your grade is entirely theoretical and there's much work to be done to determine it is an entirely different beast.
I think the judge would be wise to avoid jail time because it'd eliminate the jail implications from consideration for the appeals courts and reduce the odds of the verdict being overturned.
Agreed. It's one thing to kick up your heels and have some luls or walk around people doing the same on the eve of summer- it's a whole 'nother ball of wax at the start of a new semester. These kids have mastery of the universe to prepare for.
I hope to God(ess?) you're right Saul and putting your marker on the 9% spot is not terrible. I, alas, am putting my marker on the #1 spot and consider myself an optimist for doing so.
I suspect you may be wrong about Israel/Palestine. The kids at the college protests have gone home. I am sure the chattering set will continue to chatter about it; likewise Lee will continue to gaze into that abyss and thus get enraged but in the wider discourse I suspect it'll die down. The discourse gets bored quickly and I suspect that Bibi will continue to not quite starve the Gazans and will run out of obvious Hamas sites to hit.
I'm not deeply familiar with the GOP's internal election methods. I do know they have no form of "superdelegates" so what would have to happen would be something akin to faithless elector behavior on the part of the delegates Trump has earned via winning all of his primaries. That's highly unlikely considering that those delegates, themselves, are Trumpists- moreover if they did defect then the outcome would be something that could be litigated and it would, assuredly, sunder the Republican Party for, at least, this election and could lead to a wipe out. So in legal and practical terms I don't see how the Republicans would be willing or able to get rid of Trump unless he voluntarily bows out.
I do think, though, this may influence Trumps' Veep choice in that he'll, more than ever, want a highly loyal and not enormously strong (as a free standing politician) candidate to minimize the odds that anyone tries to get rid of him.
I mean, yeah, if you just are focused on the caviling of the highly politically engaged and fanatically leftist set then you'll get entertainment and comedy in spades. In terms of practical effect, however, it's a non-issue because it's not like people outraged it's #1 instead of #3 will fail to vote or vote for biden so in terms of substantive outcomes their outrage is irrelevant.
The preponderance of probability seems to be a toss up, in my mind, between a mild boost to Biden and no effect with a major boost to Biden being a distant third and it being varying degrees of benefit to Trump as rounding error probability fourth and fifth tier outcomes.
I mean there're basically five possible electoral outcomes I'd list them in order of likelihood:
1: this slightly helps Biden
2: No effect on the election
3: this greatly helps Biden
4: This slightly helps Trump
5: This greatly helps Trump.
I'd say it's like 45%/45%/9% odds of 1, 2 and 3 with options 4 and 5 somehow dividing that last 1% between them.
Yes, but the unbelievable arrogance and foolishness of the DA in the Georgia case and the mind blowingly stupidity and corruption of the Trump appointed Federal Judge in the classified documents case (by far the strongest of the three) has put both of the stronger cases outcomes past the election. So here we are.
Sure, and some parts of "Equity" or "Identarianism" or "Social justice" or whatever name one gives it are righteous and thus their enduring is good, other parts are trivial and their remaining is irrelevant and some of it is genuinely harmful. I think the harmful and threatening parts are retreating or, at least, not advancing by and large anymore.
On “My Top 10 Simpsons Episodes”
The security sequence ending in the open screen door lives on in my head to this day.
On “Safe Nerdy and the Early Adopter Problem”
It's not an implausible definition but I feel it's rather narrow.
On “Biden Executive Orders on Southern Border: Read Them For Yourself”
Entertaining but non sequitur.
On “Judging Trump’s Greek Chorus After His Verdict”
Yup, he upended and then ended it and then W buried it.
On “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts”
But even in game theory terms, Jay, your argument fails. The game is iterated. Ok. But if the GOP does this stuff and has no fear of retaliation then they do it more. If your point is that the game is iterated then, in game theory, that would call for defecting more until a new equilibrium is reached. Especially in the case of the moderate left where public opinion is overwhelmingly in its favor (as contrasted to the right which is at a notable disadvantage or the far left or far right which are wildly unpopular).
So if the game is iterated then the strategic/logical response is to "defect".
Likewise when you talk about moving from a high trust society to a low trust one, for many of the groups you're talking about the past society was not high trust, it was a boot on the face. The society we're moving to is more trusting than the one in the past.
And, specifically to the example you put up, it's interesting that you are lumping main stream media actors doing their main stream media thing with the opposite side to Trump and the right. It's like the Covington bruhaha all over again.
"
We'll see in the fall Jay; though I'd not expect you to be assuming selfless virtue on the part of this crowd. You really are a romantic at heart!
On “Open Mic for the week of 5/27/2024”
I can understand why you find that especially egregious.
"
Completely empty politico piece to take up space. The "freakout" dems quoted all remain anonymous. Pieces like this feel like they appear discussing both sides with monotonous regularity as far as I can tell. You gotta fill that webpage every day after all.
On “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts”
Camping on the quad in spring at the end of the semester when, likely, your grade is determined and your classwork is generally wrapped up is one thing, Jay. Camping on the quad at the beginning of the semester when your grade is entirely theoretical and there's much work to be done to determine it is an entirely different beast.
"
Fortunately the old man knows better than to touch that idea with a hundred foot pole.
"
I think the judge would be wise to avoid jail time because it'd eliminate the jail implications from consideration for the appeals courts and reduce the odds of the verdict being overturned.
"
Agreed. It's one thing to kick up your heels and have some luls or walk around people doing the same on the eve of summer- it's a whole 'nother ball of wax at the start of a new semester. These kids have mastery of the universe to prepare for.
"
I hope to God(ess?) you're right Saul and putting your marker on the 9% spot is not terrible. I, alas, am putting my marker on the #1 spot and consider myself an optimist for doing so.
"
I suspect you may be wrong about Israel/Palestine. The kids at the college protests have gone home. I am sure the chattering set will continue to chatter about it; likewise Lee will continue to gaze into that abyss and thus get enraged but in the wider discourse I suspect it'll die down. The discourse gets bored quickly and I suspect that Bibi will continue to not quite starve the Gazans and will run out of obvious Hamas sites to hit.
On “Trump Guilty On All Counts”
I'm not deeply familiar with the GOP's internal election methods. I do know they have no form of "superdelegates" so what would have to happen would be something akin to faithless elector behavior on the part of the delegates Trump has earned via winning all of his primaries. That's highly unlikely considering that those delegates, themselves, are Trumpists- moreover if they did defect then the outcome would be something that could be litigated and it would, assuredly, sunder the Republican Party for, at least, this election and could lead to a wipe out. So in legal and practical terms I don't see how the Republicans would be willing or able to get rid of Trump unless he voluntarily bows out.
I do think, though, this may influence Trumps' Veep choice in that he'll, more than ever, want a highly loyal and not enormously strong (as a free standing politician) candidate to minimize the odds that anyone tries to get rid of him.
On “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts”
I mean, yeah, if you just are focused on the caviling of the highly politically engaged and fanatically leftist set then you'll get entertainment and comedy in spades. In terms of practical effect, however, it's a non-issue because it's not like people outraged it's #1 instead of #3 will fail to vote or vote for biden so in terms of substantive outcomes their outrage is irrelevant.
On “Trump Guilty On All Counts”
So lovely to have you commenting a bit Glyph. Makes me all misty eyed.
"
The preponderance of probability seems to be a toss up, in my mind, between a mild boost to Biden and no effect with a major boost to Biden being a distant third and it being varying degrees of benefit to Trump as rounding error probability fourth and fifth tier outcomes.
On “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts”
Yeah the entitlement of that was just gobsmacking and so infuriating.
"
I mean there're basically five possible electoral outcomes I'd list them in order of likelihood:
1: this slightly helps Biden
2: No effect on the election
3: this greatly helps Biden
4: This slightly helps Trump
5: This greatly helps Trump.
I'd say it's like 45%/45%/9% odds of 1, 2 and 3 with options 4 and 5 somehow dividing that last 1% between them.
"
Yes, but the unbelievable arrogance and foolishness of the DA in the Georgia case and the mind blowingly stupidity and corruption of the Trump appointed Federal Judge in the classified documents case (by far the strongest of the three) has put both of the stronger cases outcomes past the election. So here we are.
"
Hi Glyph!
On “Open Mic for the week of 5/27/2024”
Sure, and some parts of "Equity" or "Identarianism" or "Social justice" or whatever name one gives it are righteous and thus their enduring is good, other parts are trivial and their remaining is irrelevant and some of it is genuinely harmful. I think the harmful and threatening parts are retreating or, at least, not advancing by and large anymore.
On “Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts”
Interesting times. Of all the cases for it to be, of course, it ended up being this one. Still, this is clearly terrible news for Biden /s.
On “Open Mic for the week of 5/27/2024”
I'd go on at length about what I enjoyed about MMFR but Freddie wrote it better.
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/max-isnt-marginalized-matriarchy