Yea, it seems to me that Bidenism had a very strong core of what a forward looking Democratic party should be about, that being strategic investment and modernization of our economy and civil infrastructure. Unfortunately it got weighed down in a combination of what I've heard called 'everything bagel liberalism' and a leader who age rendered incapable of making the case for it.
We had a very successful Thanksgiving, so successful that we had to pull out the extra tables. Two turkeys deep fried without damage to the house, took in a few friends and acquaintances with nowhere to go. Seventeen month old reached a state of total turkey ecstasy it was giving me flashbacks to my days going to sketchy rave parties up in Baltimore back in the day.
Name of the game this weekend is productivity. Not only do we have a total break from children's sports, but my oldest will spend not one but TWO nights with my mother in law. I am going to take this opportunity to do all the touch up painting, taking junk out of the garage to the dump, and a bunch of other chores around the house that have been pending since September. Plus putting up Christmas lights, getting gifts ordered, etc. etc. etc. With a little luck my wife and I will also have some time in the evening for a couch date. So a good way to finish out what is IMO the best week of the year.
North's explanation is all correct but bottom line is that prices are on average up almost 25% from where they were in 2019, including on a lot of essentials. It may just be the stage of life I am in with a couple younger kids but it has been a very serious pinch. It is blindingly obvious that cost of living got a lot more expensive every time we look at what we're spending on groceries and other basics every month. And we're the lucky ones who have been able to manage it without any big changes. We can easily make do without some of the extras.
Having more than a couple brain cells to rub together I understand that Donald Trump, especially the Donald Trump promising huge tariffs and big tax cuts isn't going to do anything about this. But even with full employment and a hot economy this has hurt, and if it's hurt me it's very easy to imagine it really hurting those less well off. It isn't made up, not in the slightest.
I agree with you. I also think Biden's foreign policy was overall solid, and a Biden that was 10 years younger may have been able to kick the ball in a very constructive post GWOT direction.
The needle that I think is tough to thread is distinguishing the neocon pundits and writers from the permanent bureaucracy in the pentagon, the CIA, etc. To me we are the side for whom skepticism of these organs of the state should come most naturally. Yet trying to both give them the aggressive reform they need while also defending the larger principles of rule of law, democratic norms, the need for institutions to work in certain non partisan ways across transitions of partisan power ends up coming off as incoherent. Or at least it is really easy to paint that way, despite there being no inherent contradiction between our basic system being good and certain actors within it being in pressing need of reform.
Yea, I would build off this and say there's really two things going on. Part of it is that the neocons, the never Trumpers, etc. are an on paper (or online) only phenomena. And as much as I appreciate David's posts a lot of them rest on the false premise that there is a conservative opposition to Trump of any significance. There isn't, no one has buyer's remorse (yet). The people saying these things are in a separate sort of wilderness they may never emerge from and no one cares one way or the other if they do.
The second piece of this is that there really still is a bipartisan failure to grapple with the disastrous GWOT. There are some really serious things wrong with the intelligence agencies, the blob, etc.
It's a strange set of circumstances that has made them a de facto Democratic constituency, and a really difficult one to take on at that. At the same time the Trumpian response to the situation is to say 'Yea they're failures, and you know what we do with failures? We put f*cking idiots in charge of them.'
It's a bad dynamic and I'm not sure how we break it with the current alignment.
What North said. I guess I was so incredulous at the suggestion that something happened without us talking about it that I failed to make note of the (major) distinction.
Maybe. But that's a hell of a thing for us to gamble on. Even a nuclear missile that fails to detonate properly could be a huge mess. Or if they know some may be faulty it could cause them to fire multiple in hopes that at least one works.
Gaetz may not be able to accept it but I think Trump just used him to see where the bar would be with the GOP caucus, or if there would be any bar at all.
I think we're in multiple things can be true at once territory. Biden had what I would judge as the most invisible presidency I can remember. I found it refreshing at first after years of the Trump psychodrama and I doubt it was only D voters that felt that way.
Over the long haul though the total failure to make a case for himself and his administration couldn't possibly have helped him or Harris. None of that precludes the possibility that the fundamentals were so arrayed against incumbents that chances of any Democrat winning were slim.
Biden owns it because at the end of the day he was in charge, and now the party has paid the price.
However I don't think it's quite the 'lol so obvious' analysis people are making it out to be. Keep in mind Summers et al. all got the aftermath of 2008 totally and disastrously wrong and Biden as VP had a front row seat to it. The result of Obama deferring to them was a lost decade of an under stimulated economy where a lot of people struggled and that laid the groundwork for the right and left populist movements and political assumptions that continue to plague us. In that context it makes sense that Bident went in with a high anchor on the ARRA, which he probably rightly assumed would be negotiated down by a Senate that has changed hands plus Manchin. However, instead of that happening, Trump causes the GOP to tank the GA special Senate elections. The bill is then somewhat shockingly passed as is.
Does this somehow relieve the Biden admin of responsibility? Of course not. But it wasn't this self evidently terrible decision in the moment either, and none of it happened in a vacuum or without a high degree of uncertainty.
Definitely populist! The question I'm asking though is whether the material benefit to the marginal citizen of doing that outweighs the loss of them or some family member being kicked off their health insurance. The math to that I would think is pretty obvious given that the EBT is almost certainly being paid for by someone else (i.e. upper middle class and above). And to be clear I'm saying this as someone who thinks illegal aliens shouldn't get EBT.
In a way. The natural rejoinder to that though is to ask whether what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do to Medicaid, food stamps, etc. really constitutes 'populism' in any meaningful way.
The question for Democrats is how they've allowed themselves to become so obsessed with niche causes and groups so tiny and marginalized they might not even exist that they can no longer communicate with the people they're supposed to be sticking up for.
That's not really how I read it. The omnicause adherents are a combination of 2 groups. The first is that small cadre of permanent activist true believers that are a normal part of any democracy (you know, the ones that ran the campus food co-op), some of whom might actually have some sort of harder Marxist or leftist commitments that are in tension with their fellow travelers and the Democratic party more generally. They'll be enthusiastically languishing in some odd, ineffectual non-profit no one has ever heard of for the rest of their lives no matter what, and they'd be doing that no matter who is in charge among the Democrats.
You then have a much larger, more malleable group of over achievers chasing a zeitgeist. They were and remain the upwardly mobile enforcers. But the zeitgeist is changing and their principles were never that strong or coherent to begin with, to say nothing of the tension between their stated beliefs and their goals in life. They're the Biden staffers that staged a walk out over Gaza but then walked back in a few hours later fully expecting to keep their prestigious jobs that they conspicuously did not resign from.
Which isnt to say they haven't engaged in what is IMO the ugliest component of human nature, that being cruelty justified by self righteousness. But for them it's a means to an end, that being their personal advancement in the meritocracy, not an end in itself.
Yup, my fingers are crossed that the whole thing is a repeat of the boobery we had from 2016-2018. Lot of incompetence, lot of chaos, ultimately nothing big or lasting happens. It all sucks but isn't the end of the republic. America plays Russian roulette again and survives. Then again maybe we won't be so lucky this time.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Thanksgiving in Iceland”
Heh, sadly my girlie sized suburban needs included responsibly disposing of the oil I used to fry the turkeys. So off to the dump I went.
On “Turkeys and Drumsticks 2024”
Yea, it seems to me that Bidenism had a very strong core of what a forward looking Democratic party should be about, that being strategic investment and modernization of our economy and civil infrastructure. Unfortunately it got weighed down in a combination of what I've heard called 'everything bagel liberalism' and a leader who age rendered incapable of making the case for it.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Thanksgiving in Iceland”
We had a very successful Thanksgiving, so successful that we had to pull out the extra tables. Two turkeys deep fried without damage to the house, took in a few friends and acquaintances with nowhere to go. Seventeen month old reached a state of total turkey ecstasy it was giving me flashbacks to my days going to sketchy rave parties up in Baltimore back in the day.
Name of the game this weekend is productivity. Not only do we have a total break from children's sports, but my oldest will spend not one but TWO nights with my mother in law. I am going to take this opportunity to do all the touch up painting, taking junk out of the garage to the dump, and a bunch of other chores around the house that have been pending since September. Plus putting up Christmas lights, getting gifts ordered, etc. etc. etc. With a little luck my wife and I will also have some time in the evening for a couch date. So a good way to finish out what is IMO the best week of the year.
"
Looks really cool!
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
North's explanation is all correct but bottom line is that prices are on average up almost 25% from where they were in 2019, including on a lot of essentials. It may just be the stage of life I am in with a couple younger kids but it has been a very serious pinch. It is blindingly obvious that cost of living got a lot more expensive every time we look at what we're spending on groceries and other basics every month. And we're the lucky ones who have been able to manage it without any big changes. We can easily make do without some of the extras.
Having more than a couple brain cells to rub together I understand that Donald Trump, especially the Donald Trump promising huge tariffs and big tax cuts isn't going to do anything about this. But even with full employment and a hot economy this has hurt, and if it's hurt me it's very easy to imagine it really hurting those less well off. It isn't made up, not in the slightest.
"
He's been saying that sort of thing for years. Probably right about it too.
On “I Told You So”
I think that time may come. At minimum it's hard to see how we return to the economic situation of 2019 with the policies proposed.
But it's hard for me to believe there's already any kind of widespread second guessing by his supporters. He hasn't even been sworn in yet.
"
I agree with you. I also think Biden's foreign policy was overall solid, and a Biden that was 10 years younger may have been able to kick the ball in a very constructive post GWOT direction.
The needle that I think is tough to thread is distinguishing the neocon pundits and writers from the permanent bureaucracy in the pentagon, the CIA, etc. To me we are the side for whom skepticism of these organs of the state should come most naturally. Yet trying to both give them the aggressive reform they need while also defending the larger principles of rule of law, democratic norms, the need for institutions to work in certain non partisan ways across transitions of partisan power ends up coming off as incoherent. Or at least it is really easy to paint that way, despite there being no inherent contradiction between our basic system being good and certain actors within it being in pressing need of reform.
"
Yea, I would build off this and say there's really two things going on. Part of it is that the neocons, the never Trumpers, etc. are an on paper (or online) only phenomena. And as much as I appreciate David's posts a lot of them rest on the false premise that there is a conservative opposition to Trump of any significance. There isn't, no one has buyer's remorse (yet). The people saying these things are in a separate sort of wilderness they may never emerge from and no one cares one way or the other if they do.
The second piece of this is that there really still is a bipartisan failure to grapple with the disastrous GWOT. There are some really serious things wrong with the intelligence agencies, the blob, etc.
It's a strange set of circumstances that has made them a de facto Democratic constituency, and a really difficult one to take on at that. At the same time the Trumpian response to the situation is to say 'Yea they're failures, and you know what we do with failures? We put f*cking idiots in charge of them.'
It's a bad dynamic and I'm not sure how we break it with the current alignment.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/25/2024”
What North said. I guess I was so incredulous at the suggestion that something happened without us talking about it that I failed to make note of the (major) distinction.
"
I believe we discussed it in one of the comment sections last week.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
I am relatively hawkish on Ukraine since they proved their willingness to fight for their independence. Just also clear eyed about the risks.
"
Maybe. But that's a hell of a thing for us to gamble on. Even a nuclear missile that fails to detonate properly could be a huge mess. Or if they know some may be faulty it could cause them to fire multiple in hopes that at least one works.
"
That's actually pretty plausible. Lots of our stuff may be broke but the one thing that really matters isn't.
"
Heh all deals can be done in a day if one side is willing to completely roll over.
On “The Mandate That Wasn’t”
Gaetz may not be able to accept it but I think Trump just used him to see where the bar would be with the GOP caucus, or if there would be any bar at all.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
I think we are probably in the final posturing phase before Trump takes over the presidency.
On “The Mandate That Wasn’t”
Put simply, mandate is as mandate does.
On “Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election”
I think we're in multiple things can be true at once territory. Biden had what I would judge as the most invisible presidency I can remember. I found it refreshing at first after years of the Trump psychodrama and I doubt it was only D voters that felt that way.
Over the long haul though the total failure to make a case for himself and his administration couldn't possibly have helped him or Harris. None of that precludes the possibility that the fundamentals were so arrayed against incumbents that chances of any Democrat winning were slim.
"
Biden owns it because at the end of the day he was in charge, and now the party has paid the price.
However I don't think it's quite the 'lol so obvious' analysis people are making it out to be. Keep in mind Summers et al. all got the aftermath of 2008 totally and disastrously wrong and Biden as VP had a front row seat to it. The result of Obama deferring to them was a lost decade of an under stimulated economy where a lot of people struggled and that laid the groundwork for the right and left populist movements and political assumptions that continue to plague us. In that context it makes sense that Bident went in with a high anchor on the ARRA, which he probably rightly assumed would be negotiated down by a Senate that has changed hands plus Manchin. However, instead of that happening, Trump causes the GOP to tank the GA special Senate elections. The bill is then somewhat shockingly passed as is.
Does this somehow relieve the Biden admin of responsibility? Of course not. But it wasn't this self evidently terrible decision in the moment either, and none of it happened in a vacuum or without a high degree of uncertainty.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
Definitely populist! The question I'm asking though is whether the material benefit to the marginal citizen of doing that outweighs the loss of them or some family member being kicked off their health insurance. The math to that I would think is pretty obvious given that the EBT is almost certainly being paid for by someone else (i.e. upper middle class and above). And to be clear I'm saying this as someone who thinks illegal aliens shouldn't get EBT.
"
In a way. The natural rejoinder to that though is to ask whether what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do to Medicaid, food stamps, etc. really constitutes 'populism' in any meaningful way.
The question for Democrats is how they've allowed themselves to become so obsessed with niche causes and groups so tiny and marginalized they might not even exist that they can no longer communicate with the people they're supposed to be sticking up for.
"
That's not really how I read it. The omnicause adherents are a combination of 2 groups. The first is that small cadre of permanent activist true believers that are a normal part of any democracy (you know, the ones that ran the campus food co-op), some of whom might actually have some sort of harder Marxist or leftist commitments that are in tension with their fellow travelers and the Democratic party more generally. They'll be enthusiastically languishing in some odd, ineffectual non-profit no one has ever heard of for the rest of their lives no matter what, and they'd be doing that no matter who is in charge among the Democrats.
You then have a much larger, more malleable group of over achievers chasing a zeitgeist. They were and remain the upwardly mobile enforcers. But the zeitgeist is changing and their principles were never that strong or coherent to begin with, to say nothing of the tension between their stated beliefs and their goals in life. They're the Biden staffers that staged a walk out over Gaza but then walked back in a few hours later fully expecting to keep their prestigious jobs that they conspicuously did not resign from.
Which isnt to say they haven't engaged in what is IMO the ugliest component of human nature, that being cruelty justified by self righteousness. But for them it's a means to an end, that being their personal advancement in the meritocracy, not an end in itself.
On “How Republicans Can Save Trump’s Presidency”
Yup, my fingers are crossed that the whole thing is a repeat of the boobery we had from 2016-2018. Lot of incompetence, lot of chaos, ultimately nothing big or lasting happens. It all sucks but isn't the end of the republic. America plays Russian roulette again and survives. Then again maybe we won't be so lucky this time.
"
What's the alternative? Take up arms? I think best we can do now is hope we muddle through the stupidity and craziness to come.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.