Well right now, polling wise, it looks like PA would be the most likely to flip red which also makes intuitive sense since Wallz is popular in MN and a lot of people in WI commute into MN to work so that support may well bleed over. I still think the blue wall states will hold though.
Sorry Lee, the internet is not going away. If it's any help, though, odds are that people are going to increasingly ignore the winger loons even though they're more visible. Though, first, the right will need to dislodge their own wingers from, ya know, their actual institutional cores.
Harris/Walz win with the blue wall: MI, PA and WI. I’m not confident about the new purple AZ or GA to be able to even to predict anything but red for them. https://www.270towin.com/maps/KmypG
I’d say the big surprises are that there aren’t any big surprises.
Dems take the House but the GOP seems very likely to take the Senate 50-49. Tester needs a miracle to win and we don’t have a replacement pickup for his seat.
No further assassination attempts- the SS has been tightening up and the two moronic loons who made the attempts didn’t get the kind of media attention or adulation that might encourage more moronic loons to try.
Question: this article seems to assume that aid provision and preparation has somehow been lacking, inept or insufficient as a matter of fact; why is this and why have both Democratic and Republican Governors of the various afflicted states been saying the opposite?
I think you're succumbing to romance yourself. A parent who's going to be pushing for school choice is going to have successful kids virtually no matter what school said kiddo is put in because that kid has parents who care about how they do in school.
Consider, if you will, one of the biggest and widest spread beefs parents had during the Covid years- it was that the schools were remote and they were remote for a long time. I will tap the sign again "Schools first order purpose is to safely warehouse kids while their parents work".
Of course not. The primary, and unromantic, purpose of public schools is to warehouse kiddos safely while their parents work. Educating them, socializing them and such other delightful goods are desirable but second order purposes. Is she alive and unharmed? Seems so. No case.
I agree and I haven't seen any dick stepping being shouted from the rooftops. Walz was nervous but affable; Vance was smooth but peddled flat out knee slapping lies; only us junkies will pick up on that and all us junkies already know who we're voting for. The undecideds and low infos won't be moved. A push then.
Or... and consider this carefully.. that noisy visible left wing minority you keep saying is "the Democrats" aren't actually the Democrats and might be... stay with me here... a small noisy visible left wing minority?
Because the Democrats, as in the party, its politicians, etc... have been pro-Israel for quite some time and the Democrats, as in the actual voters who nominate and elect and fund the Democratic Party sure seem to be okay with that.
The Senate is a bleak landscape. If we win it this year it'll be a miracle. But if Trump and when Cocaine Mitch retires loses it'll be interesting to see what new form the GOP senate takes.
To which Question? Certainly the GOP is slightly more totally and unconditionally supportive in this polling than the Dems are which brings us back to the question of what friend is the better friend- the intervening "dude you're going to kill yourself" friend or the "go ahead and do all the coke you want" friend? The GOP, of course, sympathizes with Netanyahu more that the Dems do, of course, since Netanyahu has been trying to turn Israel into a partisan question in the US; an act of colossal political stupidity.
In answering the question of "Does a given party pick Israel or Palestine to favor" the poll question "Which side do you favor, Israel and Palestine?" strikes me as a LOT more germaine than "Who do you sympathize with more in the current situation?"
Well I will grant that the two sides have very different opinions on Netanyahu and if you'd worded it that way we wouldn't have a problem. But you, instead, said Israel vs the Palestinians and, as I pointed out, your poll actually specifically asks about opinions on Israel vs Palestinians and those numbers don't support what you're saying. So even on your own poll terms the assertion is incorrect.
So, firstly, by pointing at this polling you're saying "It doesn't matter what actual liberals or Democratic Party members do or say under their own names- these anonymous poll respondents are more representative. That strikes me as ludicrous.
But even if we stick to the fig leaf of this poll, you're skipping past the polling question that directly checks attitudes towards the Israeli's and Palestinians (Changes in Favorable Ratings of Israel and the Palestinian Authority, by Party ID) which shows the Dems overwhelmingly supporting Israel over the Palestinians (but having a reduced opinion of both vis a vis 2023) and, thus, contradicts your assertion. Instead, you're skipping down to the poll question (Sympathies in the Middle East Situation by Party ID and Age) which is both far more ambiguously worded and also is specifically about present matters and basically acts as a question of whether Dems approve of Bibi fishin' Netanyahu who, I would like to remind you, has been pissing on Dems and nakedly supporting Trump* for years now. That's really weak tea.
*Which, I'd also point out, is ludicrously and insanely against Israel's own long term interests and beneficial only to one Bibi Netanyahu's welfare.
Which leaves us back with my original complaint- that characterizing the Dems, or even liberals generally as "Picking Palestine over Israel" in the culture war is unmoored from reality.
I don't have any particular quibble with your analysis at all. I just object to Jays original assertion that put Dems and liberals in the "Picking Palestine as an ally in culture war matters" bucket which, I still insist, is nakedly and ludicrously inaccurate. I
OKay fine, point at the occupations on the quad. I will note two things: first that they were -opposed- to "Genocide Joe" the Democratic President. And then, secondly, I will ask if you recall the folks chanting "The Jews will not replace us" as they demonstrated in Charlottesville and I'll remind you they were demonstrating in favor of the Republican President at the time.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
from your lips to God(ess?)'s ear Saul me lad. what is your prediction?
"
Well right now, polling wise, it looks like PA would be the most likely to flip red which also makes intuitive sense since Wallz is popular in MN and a lot of people in WI commute into MN to work so that support may well bleed over. I still think the blue wall states will hold though.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Sorry Lee, the internet is not going away. If it's any help, though, odds are that people are going to increasingly ignore the winger loons even though they're more visible. Though, first, the right will need to dislodge their own wingers from, ya know, their actual institutional cores.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
I’ll start us off!
Harris/Walz win with the blue wall: MI, PA and WI. I’m not confident about the new purple AZ or GA to be able to even to predict anything but red for them. https://www.270towin.com/maps/KmypG
I’d say the big surprises are that there aren’t any big surprises.
Dems take the House but the GOP seems very likely to take the Senate 50-49. Tester needs a miracle to win and we don’t have a replacement pickup for his seat.
No further assassination attempts- the SS has been tightening up and the two moronic loons who made the attempts didn’t get the kind of media attention or adulation that might encourage more moronic loons to try.
On “Of Conspiracy Theories and Helene”
Question: this article seems to assume that aid provision and preparation has somehow been lacking, inept or insufficient as a matter of fact; why is this and why have both Democratic and Republican Governors of the various afflicted states been saying the opposite?
On “Port Strikes and Tariff Wars”
This is a huge relief.
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
I so hope you're right.
"
Yes, I managed to get in before the second one so, in hindsight, my comment looks silly.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
I think you're succumbing to romance yourself. A parent who's going to be pushing for school choice is going to have successful kids virtually no matter what school said kiddo is put in because that kid has parents who care about how they do in school.
Consider, if you will, one of the biggest and widest spread beefs parents had during the Covid years- it was that the schools were remote and they were remote for a long time. I will tap the sign again "Schools first order purpose is to safely warehouse kids while their parents work".
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
What the heck? Did this publish a month early? I need to go knock on wood and collect some rabbits feet or something!
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Of course not. The primary, and unromantic, purpose of public schools is to warehouse kiddos safely while their parents work. Educating them, socializing them and such other delightful goods are desirable but second order purposes. Is she alive and unharmed? Seems so. No case.
On “Vice Presidential Candidate Debate: Sen JD Vance vs Gov Tim Walz”
I agree and I haven't seen any dick stepping being shouted from the rooftops. Walz was nervous but affable; Vance was smooth but peddled flat out knee slapping lies; only us junkies will pick up on that and all us junkies already know who we're voting for. The undecideds and low infos won't be moved. A push then.
"
Sounds like a push from all I've picked up. Vance may have won on points but in terms of moving voters I am guessing it's a "no effect" result.
On “Why a Trump Loss is Best for Conservatives”
Or arguably Green or something else I suppose.
"
Or... and consider this carefully.. that noisy visible left wing minority you keep saying is "the Democrats" aren't actually the Democrats and might be... stay with me here... a small noisy visible left wing minority?
Because the Democrats, as in the party, its politicians, etc... have been pro-Israel for quite some time and the Democrats, as in the actual voters who nominate and elect and fund the Democratic Party sure seem to be okay with that.
On “The Race to Control the Senate”
Sure, but that still means a GOP Senate.
"
The Senate is a bleak landscape. If we win it this year it'll be a miracle. But if Trump and when Cocaine Mitch retires loses it'll be interesting to see what new form the GOP senate takes.
On “Why a Trump Loss is Best for Conservatives”
To which Question? Certainly the GOP is slightly more totally and unconditionally supportive in this polling than the Dems are which brings us back to the question of what friend is the better friend- the intervening "dude you're going to kill yourself" friend or the "go ahead and do all the coke you want" friend? The GOP, of course, sympathizes with Netanyahu more that the Dems do, of course, since Netanyahu has been trying to turn Israel into a partisan question in the US; an act of colossal political stupidity.
"
In answering the question of "Does a given party pick Israel or Palestine to favor" the poll question "Which side do you favor, Israel and Palestine?" strikes me as a LOT more germaine than "Who do you sympathize with more in the current situation?"
"
Well I will grant that the two sides have very different opinions on Netanyahu and if you'd worded it that way we wouldn't have a problem. But you, instead, said Israel vs the Palestinians and, as I pointed out, your poll actually specifically asks about opinions on Israel vs Palestinians and those numbers don't support what you're saying. So even on your own poll terms the assertion is incorrect.
"
So, firstly, by pointing at this polling you're saying "It doesn't matter what actual liberals or Democratic Party members do or say under their own names- these anonymous poll respondents are more representative. That strikes me as ludicrous.
But even if we stick to the fig leaf of this poll, you're skipping past the polling question that directly checks attitudes towards the Israeli's and Palestinians (Changes in Favorable Ratings of Israel and the Palestinian Authority, by Party ID) which shows the Dems overwhelmingly supporting Israel over the Palestinians (but having a reduced opinion of both vis a vis 2023) and, thus, contradicts your assertion. Instead, you're skipping down to the poll question (Sympathies in the Middle East Situation by Party ID and Age) which is both far more ambiguously worded and also is specifically about present matters and basically acts as a question of whether Dems approve of Bibi fishin' Netanyahu who, I would like to remind you, has been pissing on Dems and nakedly supporting Trump* for years now. That's really weak tea.
*Which, I'd also point out, is ludicrously and insanely against Israel's own long term interests and beneficial only to one Bibi Netanyahu's welfare.
"
That is an interesting point I hadn't even considered. That's
"
Which leaves us back with my original complaint- that characterizing the Dems, or even liberals generally as "Picking Palestine over Israel" in the culture war is unmoored from reality.
"
I don't have any particular quibble with your analysis at all. I just object to Jays original assertion that put Dems and liberals in the "Picking Palestine as an ally in culture war matters" bucket which, I still insist, is nakedly and ludicrously inaccurate. I
"
OKay fine, point at the occupations on the quad. I will note two things: first that they were -opposed- to "Genocide Joe" the Democratic President. And then, secondly, I will ask if you recall the folks chanting "The Jews will not replace us" as they demonstrated in Charlottesville and I'll remind you they were demonstrating in favor of the Republican President at the time.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.