Oh I understand it too. But if you think the Palestinians hate Israel and want it destroyed then the logical thing for them to do would be to refuse to make the symbolic gestures the Israeli's say they need to withdraw. Because any clear sighted student of real politic can see that continuing the occupation is the only plausible was of destroying the Jewish state.
You know what would get Israel unentangled from the west bank with absolutely no hope of a right of return? Withdrawal. And you can't pretend, Lee, that the ascendant political coalition in Israel doesn't, nakedly, want to keep the West Bank territories.
Except Israel already has terror camps set up around it and they survive just fine. What they aren't surviving, just fine, is the occupation in the West Bank which is steadily and relentlessly undermining their long-term standing. The occupation is basically a government subsidy subsidizing the most right-wing loons in their society to turn Israel into South Africa (but without all the primary resources).
As for the Palestinians? The occupation is functionally a responsibility subsidy for them too keeping them completely without agency. If Israel withdraws and the West Bank Palestinians attack them, they'll be responsible for what happens in response and, contra LeeEsq's wailing, the world won't stop a single damn missile or artillery shell no matter how much intersectional whining they may do. Any Palestinian who, after Gaza, has any delusions that attacks won’t be met with absolute walls of explosives and shells is deranged.
A withdrawal, however it turns out, is something Israel can survive assuredly. But continued occupation? I look at how badly the Israeli’s polity has degraded and how badly their standing has eroded in the past couple decades and I can’t say with any confidence they can take another couple decades of it. Likud is working -hard- to make the Israel question into a partisan one and once that happens then all that’ll have to go wrong to fish Israel is for the timing to not line up.
Wonder what the odds are Trump pardons her if he gets back in the White House? Oddly I have a feeling he wouldn't- it'd only enflame things and not benefit him and Trump is pretty up front about only being in this business for himself.
So, refuse the right of return. You have this contradiction in your talk about the Palestinians in that you have stated that all Palestinians in Gaza are responsible for and can be assigned responsibility for Hamas' attacks because they endured Hamas' governing them and didn't overthrow Hamas. I think that's reductive but fair enough. By that exact same reasoning the far larger masses of Palestinians in the West Bank must be given credit for generally peacefully living along side Israel for the last decade or so and for not overthrowing the Palestinian Authority which maintains peaceful relations with Israel and operates security services to suppress other attacks from the West bank despite enormous provocations from the Israeli's revanchist government.
Compared to that the talk about rights of return is just that- talk. It's useful only as an excuse to not resolve the West Bank. The Israeli's could set their border and drag their settlers out and tell the Palestinians "you can right of return as many Palestinians as you want into Palestine but we're not letting any into Israel" and that would be that.
That's an assumption not supported by events on the ground. How many major attacks have originated against Israel from within the West Bank in the last decade?
I didn't say I find them amusing, I take them quite seriously- more seriously, I suspect, than most Israel rightists and Israel supporting conservatives do.
Hmm does anyone recall how fast NC counts their votes? They're very eastern and if they count fast it could be a good bellwether state.
Hmm 538 in 2020 said:
"Timing of results
Initial results will come very fast, but the rest will take time. Election officials estimate that up to 80 percent of the total vote could be announced right after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including in-person early votes and all mail ballots received by Nov. 2. Election Day returns will then trickle out over the course of the next several hours (those results are expected to take longer than usual because equipment must be sanitized after polling places close). However, North Carolina counts absentee ballots that arrive as late as Nov. 12, so there will definitely be some counting for at least nine days after Election Day. The question is whether there will be enough late-arriving ballots to keep any races uncalled."
Yeah in a lot of these cases it often seems to be the administration figures or third party mobs on social media who go way overboard out of a combination of risk/conflict aversion, stupidity and derp.
Encouraging, but the Dems erosion among other population groups offers a countervailing cause for alarm since men without college degrees are thick on the ground in the swing states, always have been, and seem to be swinging to the GOP in ever greater numbers.
Abortion is the question that should have the right up at night. Not just because of women (though they're a big deal) but also due to barstool conservatives who worry that Dobbs will impact their all important ability to get laid. The Dems have been overperforming since Dobbs and, guess what, this is a post Dobbs election.
All this begs a foundational question: Does skewing the polling/media reporting on the polling have an effect? Even more importantly: what is that effect? Presumably the theory is that making it look like one side is winning emboldens that sides supporters and dispirits the opposing sides supporters but it could just as easily keep the "losing" sides supporters energized and motivated while encouraging complacency for the "winning" sides supporters.
OTOH there is literature IIRC that a non-marginal number of low info voters bandwagon onto the side they perceive as winning at the last second.
Biden resonated more with certain groups of people that Harris doesn't- no denying it. Harris, however, also resonates more with other groups of people than Biden did/does and that can't be denied either. The question is if the boost is the same or more and if the respective supporters are geographically located in an electorally efficient manner which we do not know.
But, that being said, I think it's a moot question because the Biden we have now isn't the Biden we elected in 2020, he's clearly slower and there were so many concerns about his age that he had to drop out. I'm dubious we'd be in a better place if he'd stayed in.
Yes, polling has just been thumped around the last couple electoral cycles- it gets close in hindsight but is always close enough that the margin of error of the aggregate predicts either outcome without hindsight.
So, the polls say, to the educated reader, "it could go either way" and the educated reader says "we already knew that!"
The question is, is it 2020, in which case Harris is in trouble, or is it 2022 in which case Trump unambiguously fished. Or is 2024 new?
I'm good for a Return to Normalcy personally. It'd be fascinating to watch when the GOP/right does if Trump loses. They obviously wouldn't "want" to go Trump again but how the getting there happens would be very interesting to see.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Oh I understand it too. But if you think the Palestinians hate Israel and want it destroyed then the logical thing for them to do would be to refuse to make the symbolic gestures the Israeli's say they need to withdraw. Because any clear sighted student of real politic can see that continuing the occupation is the only plausible was of destroying the Jewish state.
"
If by punishing you mean saying bad things about them? Then yes. It's all talk and always has been when you're talking about that crew.
"
You know what would get Israel unentangled from the west bank with absolutely no hope of a right of return? Withdrawal. And you can't pretend, Lee, that the ascendant political coalition in Israel doesn't, nakedly, want to keep the West Bank territories.
"
Except Israel already has terror camps set up around it and they survive just fine. What they aren't surviving, just fine, is the occupation in the West Bank which is steadily and relentlessly undermining their long-term standing. The occupation is basically a government subsidy subsidizing the most right-wing loons in their society to turn Israel into South Africa (but without all the primary resources).
As for the Palestinians? The occupation is functionally a responsibility subsidy for them too keeping them completely without agency. If Israel withdraws and the West Bank Palestinians attack them, they'll be responsible for what happens in response and, contra LeeEsq's wailing, the world won't stop a single damn missile or artillery shell no matter how much intersectional whining they may do. Any Palestinian who, after Gaza, has any delusions that attacks won’t be met with absolute walls of explosives and shells is deranged.
A withdrawal, however it turns out, is something Israel can survive assuredly. But continued occupation? I look at how badly the Israeli’s polity has degraded and how badly their standing has eroded in the past couple decades and I can’t say with any confidence they can take another couple decades of it. Likud is working -hard- to make the Israel question into a partisan one and once that happens then all that’ll have to go wrong to fish Israel is for the timing to not line up.
"
You're completely right, total miss on my part. I'd say that guarantees he won't.
"
Wonder what the odds are Trump pardons her if he gets back in the White House? Oddly I have a feeling he wouldn't- it'd only enflame things and not benefit him and Trump is pretty up front about only being in this business for himself.
"
So, refuse the right of return. You have this contradiction in your talk about the Palestinians in that you have stated that all Palestinians in Gaza are responsible for and can be assigned responsibility for Hamas' attacks because they endured Hamas' governing them and didn't overthrow Hamas. I think that's reductive but fair enough. By that exact same reasoning the far larger masses of Palestinians in the West Bank must be given credit for generally peacefully living along side Israel for the last decade or so and for not overthrowing the Palestinian Authority which maintains peaceful relations with Israel and operates security services to suppress other attacks from the West bank despite enormous provocations from the Israeli's revanchist government.
Compared to that the talk about rights of return is just that- talk. It's useful only as an excuse to not resolve the West Bank. The Israeli's could set their border and drag their settlers out and tell the Palestinians "you can right of return as many Palestinians as you want into Palestine but we're not letting any into Israel" and that would be that.
"
That's an assumption not supported by events on the ground. How many major attacks have originated against Israel from within the West Bank in the last decade?
"
I didn't say I find them amusing, I take them quite seriously- more seriously, I suspect, than most Israel rightists and Israel supporting conservatives do.
"
Sure, but you're still talking about a generally powerless fringe- albeit one not quite as fringy and small as it used to be.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Ahh so it may be slower. Drat.
"
Hmm does anyone recall how fast NC counts their votes? They're very eastern and if they count fast it could be a good bellwether state.
Hmm 538 in 2020 said:
"Timing of results
Initial results will come very fast, but the rest will take time. Election officials estimate that up to 80 percent of the total vote could be announced right after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including in-person early votes and all mail ballots received by Nov. 2. Election Day returns will then trickle out over the course of the next several hours (those results are expected to take longer than usual because equipment must be sanitized after polling places close). However, North Carolina counts absentee ballots that arrive as late as Nov. 12, so there will definitely be some counting for at least nine days after Election Day. The question is whether there will be enough late-arriving ballots to keep any races uncalled."
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Yeah in a lot of these cases it often seems to be the administration figures or third party mobs on social media who go way overboard out of a combination of risk/conflict aversion, stupidity and derp.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Encouraging, but the Dems erosion among other population groups offers a countervailing cause for alarm since men without college degrees are thick on the ground in the swing states, always have been, and seem to be swinging to the GOP in ever greater numbers.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
A pity, I enjoyed reading him in the glory days of the blogosphere when he blogged at the Atlantic.So... so... long ago. Ugh I need a drink.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Abortion is the question that should have the right up at night. Not just because of women (though they're a big deal) but also due to barstool conservatives who worry that Dobbs will impact their all important ability to get laid. The Dems have been overperforming since Dobbs and, guess what, this is a post Dobbs election.
"
I like it, but it's still bold.
"
All this begs a foundational question: Does skewing the polling/media reporting on the polling have an effect? Even more importantly: what is that effect? Presumably the theory is that making it look like one side is winning emboldens that sides supporters and dispirits the opposing sides supporters but it could just as easily keep the "losing" sides supporters energized and motivated while encouraging complacency for the "winning" sides supporters.
OTOH there is literature IIRC that a non-marginal number of low info voters bandwagon onto the side they perceive as winning at the last second.
"
But do enough of them live in the swing states or will they just pad out margins in safe blue ones?
"
If he loses but even in prison he'd be one heck of an 800 lb gorilla in the room for the right.
"
Biden resonated more with certain groups of people that Harris doesn't- no denying it. Harris, however, also resonates more with other groups of people than Biden did/does and that can't be denied either. The question is if the boost is the same or more and if the respective supporters are geographically located in an electorally efficient manner which we do not know.
But, that being said, I think it's a moot question because the Biden we have now isn't the Biden we elected in 2020, he's clearly slower and there were so many concerns about his age that he had to drop out. I'm dubious we'd be in a better place if he'd stayed in.
"
So you're predicting we keep the Senate? Bold!
"
Yes, polling has just been thumped around the last couple electoral cycles- it gets close in hindsight but is always close enough that the margin of error of the aggregate predicts either outcome without hindsight.
So, the polls say, to the educated reader, "it could go either way" and the educated reader says "we already knew that!"
The question is, is it 2020, in which case Harris is in trouble, or is it 2022 in which case Trump unambiguously fished. Or is 2024 new?
"
Thanks, I hate it! Also, it's basically next door to my own prediction, just one tick to the right.
"
I'm good for a Return to Normalcy personally. It'd be fascinating to watch when the GOP/right does if Trump loses. They obviously wouldn't "want" to go Trump again but how the getting there happens would be very interesting to see.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.