And anyone who thinks this will “justify” Trump doing wild pardons, please remember this:
1. He has already did it at the end of his first term;
2. His cabinet nominees lets us all know exactly what is second term is going to be like;
3. He was going to do wild pardons anyway;
4. He just nominated Charles Kushner to be ambassador to Framce. Kushner is a man who tried to honeypot his own brother in law and send the tape to his sister.
4a. Guess who pardoned Charles Kushner?
5. “Just because Republicans are going to be bad, doesn’t mean Democrats need to stoop low” and 5 bucks gets you a cup of coffee the chance to hold your head high as the train takes you to Dachau
For the most part, it seemed to me that both campaigns were acting like Harris was going to win on November 5th or thought that such a thing was more likely than not. There was a fair bit of media that stated Harris was winning late-deciders were going for her and anecdotal evidence in the media that made it seem so. But it turns out they broke for Trump and a lot of it might have been relentless anti-trans propaganda and/or a bit of the leopards won't eat my face thinking.
Now I have no idea where the idea that late voters were breaking for Harris was coming from. I just saw it reported in the media and on the internet from various sources that should have been reputable. Maybe late breaking early voters broke for Harris but late breaking election day voters did not and that put Trump over the line
The Tories in the UK got thrased because of inflation in July of 2024. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party got thrashed in an election in October 2024. Canada's liberals are on the road to getting thrashed in elections next year. New Zealand's general election was in 2023 and they kicked out the Labour Party there. Germany's ruling coalition has been getting canned in its state elections and will likely get canned in the next Federal election.
People had long memories of the inflation. This is why politicians fear inflation. There are always some local issues involved but inflation is the big one. But again, it is unsatisfying to human urges so we discount it.
I take it that this means that their internal polling always had them within the margin of error and perhaps a point or two ahead and/or a point or two behind depending on the time and state.
I'm going to continue with my view that seems to make the professional and armchair pundits of the world deeply unhappy. It was inflation, stupid. Inflation kicked in world wide in 2021 and has felled the governments that were in charge in 2021 left and right. There are dozens of examples of throw the bums out election results since 2021. Liberal parties have been defeated and conservative parties have been defeated.
I will also propose that it is possible Harris did everything correctly or as correctly as possible and the result was a relatively narrow loss for the Democrats all things considered. Trump only received a plurality vote. I think the current percentage is 49.9 or 49.8 compared to Harris' 48.6. The Democrats managed to flip a three seats in New York and two seats in California. The GOP managed to flip some seats as well and this resulted in stasis basically, a narrow GOP majority in the House. The GOP flipped four Senate seats but only one of them was in a state one would consider purple/blue and that was Pennsylvania. No one ever seriously thought Harris was a contender in Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia and it is highly plausible that she could have won but Tester, Brown, and Manchin would be replaced by Republicans.
But all of this is not very fun and doesn't let people show how was and good their opinions views and advice are so it will be ignored. Let us stroke our chins pompously and wonder why the New York Times does not offer us an op-ed column.
He doesn't like vaccines but that doesn't mean he is against all injections. RFK Jr states heroin helped him get ahead in school: https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-rfk-jr-says-heroin-helped-him-reach-top-his-class-1991956
Not really. As was demonstrated by numerous posts and this one, parties in charge of government in 2021 were getting pounded in elections. This has been true regardless of the ideological lien of the government.
If anything, Harris/Democrats loss is a lot more narrow than that of other incumbent parties.
I don't think it is a wild overstatement to state that doing everything right does not necessarily mean victory. It might just mean coming in a close second instead of a distant second.
But people find this unsatisfying and will fire up every cognitive defense they can to not recognize it.
Hegseth: Multiple affairs and now information that he paid off a woman to dismiss a sexual assault charge.
Gaetz: Almost certainly paid a 17 year old for sex. We know he paid other young women for sex.
McMahon: Stood by her husband as he was credibly accused of sexual harassment and potentially rape.
Trump's first run and admin were basically revenge for Obama making fun of him.
Trump's third run and admin are going to be revenge at Biden and women especially E. Jean Carroll and anyone else who accused him of sexual assault. Apparently Hegseth interviewed three times in the first Trump term for Veteran's Affairs but was rejected because of his extramarital affairs.
The optimistic version is theoretically they will all squabble with each other, potentially be easily outsmarted, and not get much done or do much damage.
The pessimistic version is that incompetents and hacks can still do a hell of a lot of damage, they will demoralize enough long term civil servants, make them quit, and the positions will be filled with malicious actors and/or incompetents who will cause more damage, and if/when Democrats manage to regain control of the executive, it will be hard to rebuild it all.
Other pessimistic outlooks is that the Project 2025 staff wants these incompetents in charge because they are maximalist-bolsheviks.
So just like almost every other government in power in 2021, if anything Harris lost more narrowly than others. Trump is down to a plurality victory and the House barely budged.
Let's obey at the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/style/jon-jones-trump-dance-bowers-bosa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don't know how swayable he actually is. Again, it feels like everyone thinks they can be Bugs Bunny to his Daffy Duck and I am not sure that is the case.
So far he has made three normalish nominations: Burgum at Interior, Rubio at State, and Stefanik as U.N. rep. Burgum is horrible in the way most Republicans would be horrible at Interior. Rubio and Stefanik are not exactly known for their backbones but on a substantive level, they are normal picks.
Everyone else is not and there is either scrapping the bottom of the barrel because everyone normal said no thank you and/or some flexes going on and showing of maximalist damage.
Trump is capable of learning and he is showing he doesn't want anyone with a spine to tell him no this time.
And Project 2025 is basically run by ideologues who are going for a shock and awe approach. Could it backfire and be less damaging that I fear? Yeah. Could it cause massive amounts of social, economic, and other damage even if administered incompletely? Also yes.
Trump is also a someone who is bent on revenge. Yes there were plenty of unhinged rants during his first admin at 4:00 a.m. but I see no reason to be dismissive.
Markwayne Mullin apparently went from discussing how they have evidence of Gaetz bragging about crushing up ED pills and chasing it with energy drinks to now stating he is okay with Trump's pick.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play. I think that has been proven numerous times but it still seems like a lot of people with pet issues have overrides that make it impossible for them to accept this fact.
So far Newsom and Pritzker and some other Western Democrats seem to be the only ones that get this.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play, otherwise you just become a dignity wraith who will be thrown under the bus eventually.
I agree partially. I think Biden was trapped in a paradox of liberal democracy but it is hard to state "Trump is an existential threat to democracy" for months and then turn around and pretend he is Mitt Romney without causing disillusion so I understand why people are upset.
I also think it is mainly up to blue states to resist Trump at this point and time.
But still, Democrats don't have to help and they don't have to pretend Trump is a normal politician that can be worked with despite any overriding issues or passions.
His choices for cabinet positions are absurd or worse. At the very least, no one is going to share intelligence with us for 4 years. Who knows what damage Kennedy and others will do?
I'm not stating anyone should state "to arms citizens" but I am shocked by the number of people who think it is possible to work with Trump and co. somehow and not getting burned.
But there seems to be something about having a pet cause or passion project that thinks "Wait a minute, there is something I can work with here" instead of realizing that we are dealing with Bolshevik-maximalists and/or cranks.
I pointed out a version below of someone who doesn't quite seem to get Hegseth's unsavory past is a feature, not a bug. There was another op-ed last week in the Times on a similar theme but for RFK Jr.
I take Trump and Co. seriously and literally and I don't see why this is wrong except people think it is cringe and not cool because it is not savvy or something.
During the first Trump term, I recall someone, I can't remember who, maybe Kevin Drum, maybe Matt Y noting that Trump treats all problems as if they are Manhattan Real Estate. I.e., everything really is a zero-sum game and he who acquires most and first wins. He doesn't comprehend things like Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage.
This seems to be true for everything but there is something about having a passion or pet issue that causes people to think "Wait a minute, maybe I can work with something here" instead of realizing that the only way to win with Trump is not to play."
Plus I think people think they can outsmart him like Bugs Bunny outsmarted Daffy Duck.
"Mr. Hegseth, the former Fox News host and veteran Mr. Trump nominated to lead the Department of Defense, lacks the necessary leadership experience. His antediluvian views on women in the armed forces, his advocacy for soldiers accused of war crimes and his past remarks on racial issues alone should be disqualifying in a confirmation process. (The news last week that he was investigated in 2017 after being accused of sexual assault won’t help his cause.) But his apparent disenchantment with American military engagement abroad and his skepticism of nation-building by armed forces and endless wars should not.
Mr. Hegseth, despite his heavy baggage, represents something that needs to be acknowledged: the deep bipartisan dissatisfaction with a military leadership that has presided over 20 years of failed wars and incalculable costs to America’s veterans and their families. If Mr. Trump could find a nominee for secretary of defense who holds similar views, but without his obvious shortcomings, his choice would be justified."
The heavy baggage is the point!!! It is the only point!! How hard is it for people to understand this?
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
Polis is extremely wrong but maybe he is angling for a folding chair on the train to Dachau
"
Good.
And anyone who thinks this will “justify” Trump doing wild pardons, please remember this:
1. He has already did it at the end of his first term;
2. His cabinet nominees lets us all know exactly what is second term is going to be like;
3. He was going to do wild pardons anyway;
4. He just nominated Charles Kushner to be ambassador to Framce. Kushner is a man who tried to honeypot his own brother in law and send the tape to his sister.
4a. Guess who pardoned Charles Kushner?
5. “Just because Republicans are going to be bad, doesn’t mean Democrats need to stoop low” and 5 bucks gets you a cup of coffee the chance to hold your head high as the train takes you to Dachau
On “Group Activity: Are You Smarter Than an Eighth-grade Civics Test”
10 out 10.
On “Trump Wants FBI Director Wray Out, To Nominate Kash Patel”
The hits just keep on coming....and all because of butt hurt over the price of eggs.
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
For the most part, it seemed to me that both campaigns were acting like Harris was going to win on November 5th or thought that such a thing was more likely than not. There was a fair bit of media that stated Harris was winning late-deciders were going for her and anecdotal evidence in the media that made it seem so. But it turns out they broke for Trump and a lot of it might have been relentless anti-trans propaganda and/or a bit of the leopards won't eat my face thinking.
Now I have no idea where the idea that late voters were breaking for Harris was coming from. I just saw it reported in the media and on the internet from various sources that should have been reputable. Maybe late breaking early voters broke for Harris but late breaking election day voters did not and that put Trump over the line
So I can see this being depressingly true.
"
The Tories in the UK got thrased because of inflation in July of 2024. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party got thrashed in an election in October 2024. Canada's liberals are on the road to getting thrashed in elections next year. New Zealand's general election was in 2023 and they kicked out the Labour Party there. Germany's ruling coalition has been getting canned in its state elections and will likely get canned in the next Federal election.
People had long memories of the inflation. This is why politicians fear inflation. There are always some local issues involved but inflation is the big one. But again, it is unsatisfying to human urges so we discount it.
"
I take it that this means that their internal polling always had them within the margin of error and perhaps a point or two ahead and/or a point or two behind depending on the time and state.
I'm going to continue with my view that seems to make the professional and armchair pundits of the world deeply unhappy. It was inflation, stupid. Inflation kicked in world wide in 2021 and has felled the governments that were in charge in 2021 left and right. There are dozens of examples of throw the bums out election results since 2021. Liberal parties have been defeated and conservative parties have been defeated.
I will also propose that it is possible Harris did everything correctly or as correctly as possible and the result was a relatively narrow loss for the Democrats all things considered. Trump only received a plurality vote. I think the current percentage is 49.9 or 49.8 compared to Harris' 48.6. The Democrats managed to flip a three seats in New York and two seats in California. The GOP managed to flip some seats as well and this resulted in stasis basically, a narrow GOP majority in the House. The GOP flipped four Senate seats but only one of them was in a state one would consider purple/blue and that was Pennsylvania. No one ever seriously thought Harris was a contender in Montana, Ohio, or West Virginia and it is highly plausible that she could have won but Tester, Brown, and Manchin would be replaced by Republicans.
But all of this is not very fun and doesn't let people show how was and good their opinions views and advice are so it will be ignored. Let us stroke our chins pompously and wonder why the New York Times does not offer us an op-ed column.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/25/2024”
He doesn't like vaccines but that doesn't mean he is against all injections. RFK Jr states heroin helped him get ahead in school: https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-rfk-jr-says-heroin-helped-him-reach-top-his-class-1991956
"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/26/trump-transition-team-fbi-security-clearances-background-checks
How to plan a coup in the open
"
The age of in your face oligarchs
https://www.vox.com/money/387348/elon-musk-trump-president-billionaire-oligarchy
"
Trump announces his intention to spark a recession by imposing 25 percent across the board tariffs on our biggest trading partners
On “Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election”
Not really. As was demonstrated by numerous posts and this one, parties in charge of government in 2021 were getting pounded in elections. This has been true regardless of the ideological lien of the government.
If anything, Harris/Democrats loss is a lot more narrow than that of other incumbent parties.
I don't think it is a wild overstatement to state that doing everything right does not necessarily mean victory. It might just mean coming in a close second instead of a distant second.
But people find this unsatisfying and will fire up every cognitive defense they can to not recognize it.
"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better."-Samuel Beckett
"
Those Green Lanterns won't light themselves!!
On “The Mandate That Wasn’t”
Gaetz withdraws his nomination: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/11/21/us/trump-gaetz-news
"
If Republicans win, it is an overwhelming mandate. These are the rules of the media and the media is hardwired for Republicans
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
There is also the fact of this emergent pattern:
Hegseth: Multiple affairs and now information that he paid off a woman to dismiss a sexual assault charge.
Gaetz: Almost certainly paid a 17 year old for sex. We know he paid other young women for sex.
McMahon: Stood by her husband as he was credibly accused of sexual harassment and potentially rape.
Trump's first run and admin were basically revenge for Obama making fun of him.
Trump's third run and admin are going to be revenge at Biden and women especially E. Jean Carroll and anyone else who accused him of sexual assault. Apparently Hegseth interviewed three times in the first Trump term for Veteran's Affairs but was rejected because of his extramarital affairs.
"
The optimistic version is theoretically they will all squabble with each other, potentially be easily outsmarted, and not get much done or do much damage.
The pessimistic version is that incompetents and hacks can still do a hell of a lot of damage, they will demoralize enough long term civil servants, make them quit, and the positions will be filled with malicious actors and/or incompetents who will cause more damage, and if/when Democrats manage to regain control of the executive, it will be hard to rebuild it all.
Other pessimistic outlooks is that the Project 2025 staff wants these incompetents in charge because they are maximalist-bolsheviks.
TL/DR, don't assume clowns are harmless.
"
Dr. Oz was nominated to run the Office of Medicaid and Medicare
On “Paper: Inflation and the 2024 US Presidential Election”
So just like almost every other government in power in 2021, if anything Harris lost more narrowly than others. Trump is down to a plurality victory and the House barely budged.
On “How Republicans Can Save Trump’s Presidency”
Let's obey at the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/style/jon-jones-trump-dance-bowers-bosa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
"
I don't know how swayable he actually is. Again, it feels like everyone thinks they can be Bugs Bunny to his Daffy Duck and I am not sure that is the case.
So far he has made three normalish nominations: Burgum at Interior, Rubio at State, and Stefanik as U.N. rep. Burgum is horrible in the way most Republicans would be horrible at Interior. Rubio and Stefanik are not exactly known for their backbones but on a substantive level, they are normal picks.
Everyone else is not and there is either scrapping the bottom of the barrel because everyone normal said no thank you and/or some flexes going on and showing of maximalist damage.
Trump is capable of learning and he is showing he doesn't want anyone with a spine to tell him no this time.
And Project 2025 is basically run by ideologues who are going for a shock and awe approach. Could it backfire and be less damaging that I fear? Yeah. Could it cause massive amounts of social, economic, and other damage even if administered incompletely? Also yes.
Trump is also a someone who is bent on revenge. Yes there were plenty of unhinged rants during his first admin at 4:00 a.m. but I see no reason to be dismissive.
Markwayne Mullin apparently went from discussing how they have evidence of Gaetz bragging about crushing up ED pills and chasing it with energy drinks to now stating he is okay with Trump's pick.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play. I think that has been proven numerous times but it still seems like a lot of people with pet issues have overrides that make it impossible for them to accept this fact.
So far Newsom and Pritzker and some other Western Democrats seem to be the only ones that get this.
The only way to win with Trump is not to play, otherwise you just become a dignity wraith who will be thrown under the bus eventually.
"
I agree partially. I think Biden was trapped in a paradox of liberal democracy but it is hard to state "Trump is an existential threat to democracy" for months and then turn around and pretend he is Mitt Romney without causing disillusion so I understand why people are upset.
I also think it is mainly up to blue states to resist Trump at this point and time.
But still, Democrats don't have to help and they don't have to pretend Trump is a normal politician that can be worked with despite any overriding issues or passions.
His choices for cabinet positions are absurd or worse. At the very least, no one is going to share intelligence with us for 4 years. Who knows what damage Kennedy and others will do?
I'm not stating anyone should state "to arms citizens" but I am shocked by the number of people who think it is possible to work with Trump and co. somehow and not getting burned.
But there seems to be something about having a pet cause or passion project that thinks "Wait a minute, there is something I can work with here" instead of realizing that we are dealing with Bolshevik-maximalists and/or cranks.
I pointed out a version below of someone who doesn't quite seem to get Hegseth's unsavory past is a feature, not a bug. There was another op-ed last week in the Times on a similar theme but for RFK Jr.
I take Trump and Co. seriously and literally and I don't see why this is wrong except people think it is cringe and not cool because it is not savvy or something.
"
During the first Trump term, I recall someone, I can't remember who, maybe Kevin Drum, maybe Matt Y noting that Trump treats all problems as if they are Manhattan Real Estate. I.e., everything really is a zero-sum game and he who acquires most and first wins. He doesn't comprehend things like Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage.
This seems to be true for everything but there is something about having a passion or pet issue that causes people to think "Wait a minute, maybe I can work with something here" instead of realizing that the only way to win with Trump is not to play."
Plus I think people think they can outsmart him like Bugs Bunny outsmarted Daffy Duck.
"
Not being blase about the craziness or thinking that there are ways to work with Trump would be a start. Not having wishful thinking either.
"
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/opinion/trump-cabinet-hegseth-defense-secretary.html
"Mr. Hegseth, the former Fox News host and veteran Mr. Trump nominated to lead the Department of Defense, lacks the necessary leadership experience. His antediluvian views on women in the armed forces, his advocacy for soldiers accused of war crimes and his past remarks on racial issues alone should be disqualifying in a confirmation process. (The news last week that he was investigated in 2017 after being accused of sexual assault won’t help his cause.) But his apparent disenchantment with American military engagement abroad and his skepticism of nation-building by armed forces and endless wars should not.
Mr. Hegseth, despite his heavy baggage, represents something that needs to be acknowledged: the deep bipartisan dissatisfaction with a military leadership that has presided over 20 years of failed wars and incalculable costs to America’s veterans and their families. If Mr. Trump could find a nominee for secretary of defense who holds similar views, but without his obvious shortcomings, his choice would be justified."
The heavy baggage is the point!!! It is the only point!! How hard is it for people to understand this?
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.