I said in the pre-debate thread that I do think the convention can make some sort of course correction -- as long as Joe bows out 'willingly' -- but the convention is equally likely to make a course mis-direction.
I get that party base wants a 'basey' candidate... but I'd find the nearest thing to Joe's non-baseyness as possible.
But then, my vote isn't really gettable for the Dems... so do what y'all want.
True. I was wondering if Trump was going to start 'bullying' Joe as the night went on. He made one quip (that I remember) about one incoherent answer Joe made; but then he just went back to his mix of counterfactuals and fantasy and straight-up attacks on Bidens administration (vs. Joe's personal decline).
If he'd started attacking Joe on the stage, I think the sentiment would have swung in favor of Joe. Instead the debate was mostly just this:
Biden: look, the fact is, we can’t… we don’t… look. Here’s the deal. And this is no foolin
Trump: there are ten billion guatemalans attacking the lincoln memorial right now
As I say, I don't follow Dem politics... but If I grab a list of popular Dems East of Rockies and West of Blue Ridge -- then here are some names that Biden would then hand select and present as the way forward.
Popular Govs (as of 2022, last list I could find)
Net Approval, State Lean, and PARG(?)
KY Andy Beshear D +24 R+27 +51
KS Laura Kelly D +20 R+21 +41
LA John Bel Edwards D +10 R+21 +31
CO Jared Polis D +22 D+6 +16
NV Steve Sisolak D +10 R+3 +13
MN Tim Walz D +11 D+2 +9
MI Gretchen Whitmer D +4 R+2 +6
Sounds like a Dem problem, not a 'Biden too old crowd' problem.
I don't know the Dem world of politicians... but surely there's someone East of the Rockies and West of the Blue Ridge that would be serviceable.
To the extent that Ezra (if he's the leader here) is talking about yeeting Biden (do we still yeet things?) -- then I think he's likely wrong.
The way it would 'work' in my baseless speculation is Biden 'wins' the nomination, then nominates a unity candidate... whoever that might be... Kamala remains VP (cause she's not the way out of this box) as part of the 'unity' play.
If there's not a single person who could be a better Biden-ish candidate then there are just an awful lot of eggs in a very fragile basket.
My baseless speculation that I've seen echoed a few places is that this debate at such an early time in the campaign (pre-convention) is a safety release valve for the Dems. In the event that Biden tanks (in realtime or in subesequent polls) he'll refuse the nomination at the convention.
To be fair, if/when Trump tanks on the debate ... well, nothing. Those folks are riding that nuke into the ground.
If I google 'Jamaal Bowman antics' I get the fire alarm episode and the recent rally where he calls his opponent a supporter of genocide.
I reckon there must be other antics that I'm just tracking not being from NY. But in a simple sense, did his district turn on him for the fire alarm or for being anti-genocide or some other antic.
It sounds snarkier that I mean it... but that's the essence of the question from someone who *isn't* obsessed with the squad and their antics.
Yeah, I'm not sure we know what a Biden Presidency might have been... in fact my contrarian pro-Biden position would be More Biden, less Administration and he'd be leading.
Of course, I honestly do think his age makes him unable to manage his Administration to be such that it reflects what his politics would want it to be.
People who claim they wash their duvets? Liars. Every last one of them.
Not much planned for the weekend; I slipped a tire on the tractor and bent the wheel frame... or I bent the wheel frame and cause the tire to slip. Either way I need a new wheel and tire then I'll figure out how to fix the old wheel. But, it turns out that getting something simple like a new wheel and tire is annoyingly complicated for reasons. So I'm without a tractor for weekend chores; therefore, not much planned for the weekend.
I'm bored and between games... next season of Path of Exile starts late July (expect it to either be lame or loot bonanza depending on their launch strategy for PoE2) ... Last Epoch's first season after launch starts in mid July (looks like they are going to lean into making more skills funnerer) ... [Seriously though, these idiots should stagger their releases by 2 months so they both maximize hype and players] ... and BG3 just announced that they will officially support Mods -- in September. I can't play BG3 unmodded, and, well, the current Modding framework really sucks.
So... I bought Wartales from steam (30% off). It has a decent idea -- gritty Might of Magic (no base building) with some Party RPG and a turn based combat system. As mercenaries the primary driver is, well, having enough money and food to make payroll. Which, to be fair, is a reasonable game and thematic constraint... but in my first play through I find it more like cheating death and doom than becoming a Warlord Princeling. Quite possibly I'm not doing it right or far enough along. I could see some of you nerds liking it though.
p.s. I'm purposely bracketing the kinda weird disclaimer that kept popping in to all the answers until it completely disappeared with answer #4 (which is quoted in entirety).
I was curious myself on how much if any info came from the laptop. So I asked ChatGPT 4 simple questions (no prompt engineering, just normie questions).
1. In the Hunter Biden gun possession case, was any evidence presented that had been garnered from the laptop he had abandoned?
2. were there any pictures of hunter biden holding a gun on the laptop?
3. were there pictures of a gun while hunter biden was also doing drugs?
4. in what year were those pictures taken?
Answers:
1. No, with a disclaimer: "these photographs were part of the broader public discourse and media coverage surrounding Hunter Biden, they were not directly cited or used as evidence in the gun possession charges brought against him."
2. Yes, with the [same] disclaimer
3. Yes, with the [same] disclaimer
4. "The photographs of Hunter Biden holding a firearm that were reportedly found on the laptop were taken in October 2018. This timing is significant because it coincides with the period when Hunter Biden is alleged to have purchased a firearm and completed a federal background check form denying drug use, which is central to the charges in the gun possession case."
Granted, I haven't fact checked the AI to see if it's hallucinating; but I think we could say that Philip is correct *and* that JB is correct in this way:
Hunter Biden was charged with a 'checkbox' crime -- that is he self-reported that he was eligible to purchase the pistol... which, absent the very public pictures of his various episodes likely would not have been prosecuted. But the very public nature of his drug use and firearm possession gave prosecutors an easy path to check the purchase contract and line it up with public utterances about treatment etc. -- which would be a much more likely path for prosecution.
I mean, it's a very good thing for Hunter that his laptop didn't also contain photos of someone other than himself packing his bags before travelling on an airplane.
Yeah, as I noted above, check the dealer site to see if they offer 'concierge' buying experience. Since you live near civilization, they might even deliver the car to your house.
While I don't think the buying experience is 'good' yet... I do think technology and buying patterns have caught up to the market so you don't *have* to go to the dealer to buy a car -- depending on the dealer.
I don't mind the negotiating so much... but I've switched to never going to the dealer to negotiate because once I'm there it's harder to introduce other dealers. So now I do all the negotiating at my house. The 'hardest' part is getting the first nut to crack -- their go-to counter is to ask you to come in -- but once you have an 'ok' offer you can start probing the floor with other dealers. To get the first discount I tell my least favorite dealer that I'd like a 9% discount and I'm ready to buy today (which I am). Invariably they play amateur split the difference and that's fine because now you have a bona fide 5% discount to try to work to 10%+ with other dealers (or whatever price you want to pay for the vehicle - depending on make/model of course).
In the Covid years, you would just hit a really really high floor really really fast.
What I really hate is waiting for the finance guy... which at times has felt punitive depending on the dealership; have waited 3 hrs after the deal was struck. So the *big* win here was the internet finance signatures... that's something I'll do every time now. Won't leave my home until it's picking up the car itself.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/24/2024”
Hey! Trump can still lose this.
Might be the only rational response.
I said in the pre-debate thread that I do think the convention can make some sort of course correction -- as long as Joe bows out 'willingly' -- but the convention is equally likely to make a course mis-direction.
I get that party base wants a 'basey' candidate... but I'd find the nearest thing to Joe's non-baseyness as possible.
But then, my vote isn't really gettable for the Dems... so do what y'all want.
"
True. I was wondering if Trump was going to start 'bullying' Joe as the night went on. He made one quip (that I remember) about one incoherent answer Joe made; but then he just went back to his mix of counterfactuals and fantasy and straight-up attacks on Bidens administration (vs. Joe's personal decline).
If he'd started attacking Joe on the stage, I think the sentiment would have swung in favor of Joe. Instead the debate was mostly just this:
"
Joe is out of gas. The only thing that Trump can do to lose this, is keep talking.
"
Oh Dear.
On “Has The Election Turned A Corner?”
As I say, I don't follow Dem politics... but If I grab a list of popular Dems East of Rockies and West of Blue Ridge -- then here are some names that Biden would then hand select and present as the way forward.
Popular Govs (as of 2022, last list I could find)
Net Approval, State Lean, and PARG(?)
KY Andy Beshear D +24 R+27 +51
KS Laura Kelly D +20 R+21 +41
LA John Bel Edwards D +10 R+21 +31
CO Jared Polis D +22 D+6 +16
NV Steve Sisolak D +10 R+3 +13
MN Tim Walz D +11 D+2 +9
MI Gretchen Whitmer D +4 R+2 +6
If one must simply present names...
"
Heh. I know *I* wouldn't trade post-Presidential life and all its perqs for a second go on the merry-go-round... but hey, who knows?
"
Sounds like a Dem problem, not a 'Biden too old crowd' problem.
I don't know the Dem world of politicians... but surely there's someone East of the Rockies and West of the Blue Ridge that would be serviceable.
To the extent that Ezra (if he's the leader here) is talking about yeeting Biden (do we still yeet things?) -- then I think he's likely wrong.
The way it would 'work' in my baseless speculation is Biden 'wins' the nomination, then nominates a unity candidate... whoever that might be... Kamala remains VP (cause she's not the way out of this box) as part of the 'unity' play.
If there's not a single person who could be a better Biden-ish candidate then there are just an awful lot of eggs in a very fragile basket.
"
My baseless speculation that I've seen echoed a few places is that this debate at such an early time in the campaign (pre-convention) is a safety release valve for the Dems. In the event that Biden tanks (in realtime or in subesequent polls) he'll refuse the nomination at the convention.
To be fair, if/when Trump tanks on the debate ... well, nothing. Those folks are riding that nuke into the ground.
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/24/2024”
Heh.
"
This is what I'm wondering too.
If I google 'Jamaal Bowman antics' I get the fire alarm episode and the recent rally where he calls his opponent a supporter of genocide.
I reckon there must be other antics that I'm just tracking not being from NY. But in a simple sense, did his district turn on him for the fire alarm or for being anti-genocide or some other antic.
It sounds snarkier that I mean it... but that's the essence of the question from someone who *isn't* obsessed with the squad and their antics.
"
Yeah, I'm not sure we know what a Biden Presidency might have been... in fact my contrarian pro-Biden position would be More Biden, less Administration and he'd be leading.
Of course, I honestly do think his age makes him unable to manage his Administration to be such that it reflects what his politics would want it to be.
...And that's why he's not leading.
"
Pesky, erm, billionaires getting in the way of democracy is what seems to be the emerging narrative.
"
I'm mildly curious as to what defines the contours of the 'precipice' in general and in this case specifically.
"
Probably some sound commentary on this, let me go read up on it...
On “Weekend Plans Post: GenX is, apparently, the last generation to use a top sheet”
People who claim they wash their duvets? Liars. Every last one of them.
Not much planned for the weekend; I slipped a tire on the tractor and bent the wheel frame... or I bent the wheel frame and cause the tire to slip. Either way I need a new wheel and tire then I'll figure out how to fix the old wheel. But, it turns out that getting something simple like a new wheel and tire is annoyingly complicated for reasons. So I'm without a tractor for weekend chores; therefore, not much planned for the weekend.
On “Saturday Morning Gaming: Kingdom Hearts is Finally on Steam!”
I'm bored and between games... next season of Path of Exile starts late July (expect it to either be lame or loot bonanza depending on their launch strategy for PoE2) ... Last Epoch's first season after launch starts in mid July (looks like they are going to lean into making more skills funnerer) ... [Seriously though, these idiots should stagger their releases by 2 months so they both maximize hype and players] ... and BG3 just announced that they will officially support Mods -- in September. I can't play BG3 unmodded, and, well, the current Modding framework really sucks.
So... I bought Wartales from steam (30% off). It has a decent idea -- gritty Might of Magic (no base building) with some Party RPG and a turn based combat system. As mercenaries the primary driver is, well, having enough money and food to make payroll. Which, to be fair, is a reasonable game and thematic constraint... but in my first play through I find it more like cheating death and doom than becoming a Warlord Princeling. Quite possibly I'm not doing it right or far enough along. I could see some of you nerds liking it though.
https://store.steampowered.com/app/1527950/Wartales/
On “Open Mic for the week of 6/10/2024”
Yep; the visuals are what got everyone hyped and hooked.
"
As a former kid of the era... it was all about special effects.
And the simple King Arthur/Hero's journey meta that made have an original story unnecessary.
"
He had a wife?
"
I suppose I didn't specifically ask if the laptop itself had been presented to the jury... so it technically wasn't lying.
Makes me go to one of my original thoughts about AI: 'What if we haven't invented artificial intelligence, but Djin.'
"
Dang, if you can't trust ChatGPT to give you the straight skinny, who can you trust?
"
p.s. I'm purposely bracketing the kinda weird disclaimer that kept popping in to all the answers until it completely disappeared with answer #4 (which is quoted in entirety).
"
Fun with Chat GPT...
I was curious myself on how much if any info came from the laptop. So I asked ChatGPT 4 simple questions (no prompt engineering, just normie questions).
1. In the Hunter Biden gun possession case, was any evidence presented that had been garnered from the laptop he had abandoned?
2. were there any pictures of hunter biden holding a gun on the laptop?
3. were there pictures of a gun while hunter biden was also doing drugs?
4. in what year were those pictures taken?
Answers:
1. No, with a disclaimer: "these photographs were part of the broader public discourse and media coverage surrounding Hunter Biden, they were not directly cited or used as evidence in the gun possession charges brought against him."
2. Yes, with the [same] disclaimer
3. Yes, with the [same] disclaimer
4. "The photographs of Hunter Biden holding a firearm that were reportedly found on the laptop were taken in October 2018. This timing is significant because it coincides with the period when Hunter Biden is alleged to have purchased a firearm and completed a federal background check form denying drug use, which is central to the charges in the gun possession case."
Granted, I haven't fact checked the AI to see if it's hallucinating; but I think we could say that Philip is correct *and* that JB is correct in this way:
Hunter Biden was charged with a 'checkbox' crime -- that is he self-reported that he was eligible to purchase the pistol... which, absent the very public pictures of his various episodes likely would not have been prosecuted. But the very public nature of his drug use and firearm possession gave prosecutors an easy path to check the purchase contract and line it up with public utterances about treatment etc. -- which would be a much more likely path for prosecution.
I mean, it's a very good thing for Hunter that his laptop didn't also contain photos of someone other than himself packing his bags before travelling on an airplane.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Settling into the Summer”
Yeah, as I noted above, check the dealer site to see if they offer 'concierge' buying experience. Since you live near civilization, they might even deliver the car to your house.
While I don't think the buying experience is 'good' yet... I do think technology and buying patterns have caught up to the market so you don't *have* to go to the dealer to buy a car -- depending on the dealer.
"
I don't mind the negotiating so much... but I've switched to never going to the dealer to negotiate because once I'm there it's harder to introduce other dealers. So now I do all the negotiating at my house. The 'hardest' part is getting the first nut to crack -- their go-to counter is to ask you to come in -- but once you have an 'ok' offer you can start probing the floor with other dealers. To get the first discount I tell my least favorite dealer that I'd like a 9% discount and I'm ready to buy today (which I am). Invariably they play amateur split the difference and that's fine because now you have a bona fide 5% discount to try to work to 10%+ with other dealers (or whatever price you want to pay for the vehicle - depending on make/model of course).
In the Covid years, you would just hit a really really high floor really really fast.
What I really hate is waiting for the finance guy... which at times has felt punitive depending on the dealership; have waited 3 hrs after the deal was struck. So the *big* win here was the internet finance signatures... that's something I'll do every time now. Won't leave my home until it's picking up the car itself.