Over at Kevin Drum's blog is a series of graphs and commentary showing that Trump has been dealt a very fine hand as far as the economy, trade. crime, and immigration go. Just like last time. What Trump promised has already been largely delivered. My bet is that he f**ks up, just like last time, but that will depend on how much he gets of what he says he wants.
As is so often the case, the Democrats didn't take their own side in a fight, trumpet their actual accomplishments in getting through the world-wide economic crisis and delivering a sound economy, promise to keep up the good work, and come up with a few new wrinkles. Whether any of that would have mattered to low-information voters is another question, but the likely futility is no reason not to try.
The post-mortems will be coming thick and fast, and at least three-quarters of them will involve either telling the Democrats to become Republicans, throwing some valuable and vulnerable constituency under the bus, telling the white working class lies, or recommending the adoption of, or more likely merely bloviating more loudly about, the coroner's pet policies. The insiders are surely mulling this over already, though they are unlikely to share their thinking with the general public. The unique features of the 2024 election will surely not be repeated on the Democratic side. Trump, being ineligible to run for re-election, will not present a Biden problem to the Republicans when Trump's age and imbecility catch up with him or become too obvious to the public.
There's no payoff to saying predictable stuff early. It's a long off-season.
Indeed it would be a bad plan, which is why it wasn't the plan. So tell people the truth about the economy and what needs to be done -- though they probably won't listen. Endorse a serious plan to deal with illegal immigration. See where that got us? And explain exactly what you plan to do about the actual levels of violent crime without lying about the scope of the problem. Of course, that will bore voters to tears unless the candidate froths at the mouth and makes tough-sounding noises.
But it's not going to be her turn -- unless they all look alike. There will be a wide-open scrum in 2028. Maybe she'll enter it, maybe she'll win, but she won't be the prohibitive favorite. Are there any other black women you see on the horizon who have a claim on the nomination?
When all is said and done, the likely bet is a candidate with white skin and a penis.
Pet issues, surely. Saying crime is up is not a policy, and ranting about American Carnage (TM) is a lie. The plain fact is that crime has been declining for decades and has largely come down to almost unimaginably low levels. Year over year it fluctuates in a narrow band around a low normal, but the trend has been steady for years. Reasonable people can disagree about what needs to be done about the crime we have, but (speaking of traditional media credibility problems) when the rule for local news is "if it bleeds it leads," people will get the wrong idea about the scope of the problem and fall for anyone who talks tough and has no actual idea what to do that might work. As for illegal immigration, there was a tough compromise bill that would have gone a long way to addressing that, but there are certain people who would rather have a problem to exploit than a solution. And we know who they are. And inflation, as it turns out, was transitory, the traditional media didn't report that Biden was in great shape, and Trump can speak for himself about Liz Cheney, and did.
And while I agree that there was little effort to communicate the truth about the economy and there should have been more, I can't say I share your confidence that better communicators would have succeeded in getting people to believe it.
Trump was handed a healthy economy and, after a while, things went bad -- not entirely his fault, but on his watch and, to some extent, because of what he did. Biden was handed a very unhealthy economy, and faced the same problems faced by most of the rest of the world. We hacked our way out of it, better than other countries did, and eventually broke the back of inflation without pitching ourselves into a recession. Now Trump will be handed, again, a healthy economy, which, I predict, he'll f**k up. And his fans won't care.
What people "like" is a false memory. Gas prices are down to Trump-era levels (I paid $2.99 a gallon this past week), egg prices are back close to normal after avian flu (I paid $2.99 a dozen last week), and things are humming. But "vibes" beat reality in the short run.
Probably a lot more than $600 if the suits came, as most of his do, from Brioni. The tailors probably want to wear bags on their heads. Making them fit right would be an easy fix for them.
That's true of many things. For example, most voters say they want to cut foreign aid. And yet when asked what percentage of the budget should go to foreign aid, they pick a number lower than what they imagine the current percentage to be but far in excess of what it really is.
Low information voters believe silly things, part 5932.
On “Trumped”
Over at Kevin Drum's blog is a series of graphs and commentary showing that Trump has been dealt a very fine hand as far as the economy, trade. crime, and immigration go. Just like last time. What Trump promised has already been largely delivered. My bet is that he f**ks up, just like last time, but that will depend on how much he gets of what he says he wants.
As is so often the case, the Democrats didn't take their own side in a fight, trumpet their actual accomplishments in getting through the world-wide economic crisis and delivering a sound economy, promise to keep up the good work, and come up with a few new wrinkles. Whether any of that would have mattered to low-information voters is another question, but the likely futility is no reason not to try.
The post-mortems will be coming thick and fast, and at least three-quarters of them will involve either telling the Democrats to become Republicans, throwing some valuable and vulnerable constituency under the bus, telling the white working class lies, or recommending the adoption of, or more likely merely bloviating more loudly about, the coroner's pet policies. The insiders are surely mulling this over already, though they are unlikely to share their thinking with the general public. The unique features of the 2024 election will surely not be repeated on the Democratic side. Trump, being ineligible to run for re-election, will not present a Biden problem to the Republicans when Trump's age and imbecility catch up with him or become too obvious to the public.
There's no payoff to saying predictable stuff early. It's a long off-season.
On “History Was Made in 2024 Election, Now What?”
If you want to argue with the voices in your own head, don't let anyone stop you.
"
When you set the terms for both sides of the argument, you’re bound to win.
"
When you set the terms for both sides of the argument, you’re bound to win.
"
When you set the terms for both sides of the argument, you're bound to win.
"
Indeed it would be a bad plan, which is why it wasn't the plan. So tell people the truth about the economy and what needs to be done -- though they probably won't listen. Endorse a serious plan to deal with illegal immigration. See where that got us? And explain exactly what you plan to do about the actual levels of violent crime without lying about the scope of the problem. Of course, that will bore voters to tears unless the candidate froths at the mouth and makes tough-sounding noises.
"
But it's not going to be her turn -- unless they all look alike. There will be a wide-open scrum in 2028. Maybe she'll enter it, maybe she'll win, but she won't be the prohibitive favorite. Are there any other black women you see on the horizon who have a claim on the nomination?
When all is said and done, the likely bet is a candidate with white skin and a penis.
"
Let's go back to those confiscatory Clinton tax rates!
"
Pet issues, surely. Saying crime is up is not a policy, and ranting about American Carnage (TM) is a lie. The plain fact is that crime has been declining for decades and has largely come down to almost unimaginably low levels. Year over year it fluctuates in a narrow band around a low normal, but the trend has been steady for years. Reasonable people can disagree about what needs to be done about the crime we have, but (speaking of traditional media credibility problems) when the rule for local news is "if it bleeds it leads," people will get the wrong idea about the scope of the problem and fall for anyone who talks tough and has no actual idea what to do that might work. As for illegal immigration, there was a tough compromise bill that would have gone a long way to addressing that, but there are certain people who would rather have a problem to exploit than a solution. And we know who they are. And inflation, as it turns out, was transitory, the traditional media didn't report that Biden was in great shape, and Trump can speak for himself about Liz Cheney, and did.
"
I'm glad to see that we don't disagree.
And while I agree that there was little effort to communicate the truth about the economy and there should have been more, I can't say I share your confidence that better communicators would have succeeded in getting people to believe it.
"
Grover Cleveland beat him to it.
"
Trump was handed a healthy economy and, after a while, things went bad -- not entirely his fault, but on his watch and, to some extent, because of what he did. Biden was handed a very unhealthy economy, and faced the same problems faced by most of the rest of the world. We hacked our way out of it, better than other countries did, and eventually broke the back of inflation without pitching ourselves into a recession. Now Trump will be handed, again, a healthy economy, which, I predict, he'll f**k up. And his fans won't care.
What people "like" is a false memory. Gas prices are down to Trump-era levels (I paid $2.99 a gallon this past week), egg prices are back close to normal after avian flu (I paid $2.99 a dozen last week), and things are humming. But "vibes" beat reality in the short run.
On “2024 Election Day Live Stream, Reaction, Open Thread”
Oh my, someone won an election. How insufferable!
"
Yeah, we'll be bringing frivolous lawsuits and storming the Capitol any day now.
"
Class always shows.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The Night Before the 2024 Presidential Election”
To save everyone a lot of time:
https://www.cjr.org/covering_the_election/bad_media_takes_election.php
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
Well, yes, I saw. Hence the comment.
Eric sends his regards.
"
Probably a lot more than $600 if the suits came, as most of his do, from Brioni. The tailors probably want to wear bags on their heads. Making them fit right would be an easy fix for them.
"
Newsom
"
When they tell you who they are, believe them.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
That's true of many things. For example, most voters say they want to cut foreign aid. And yet when asked what percentage of the budget should go to foreign aid, they pick a number lower than what they imagine the current percentage to be but far in excess of what it really is.
Low information voters believe silly things, part 5932.
"
Thus proving my point.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/28/2024”
What did Dumbya have against Liz Cheney?
"
Two things can be true at once. Liz Cheney is generally loathsome and she is doing the right thing this time.
On “The Way Through is Donald Trump for President”
It may be simple, but it isn't serious -- or even legal.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.