Oh I understand it too. But if you think the Palestinians hate Israel and want it destroyed then the logical thing for them to do would be to refuse to make the symbolic gestures the Israeli's say they need to withdraw. Because any clear sighted student of real politic can see that continuing the occupation is the only plausible was of destroying the Jewish state.
You know what would get Israel unentangled from the west bank with absolutely no hope of a right of return? Withdrawal. And you can't pretend, Lee, that the ascendant political coalition in Israel doesn't, nakedly, want to keep the West Bank territories.
Except Israel already has terror camps set up around it and they survive just fine. What they aren't surviving, just fine, is the occupation in the West Bank which is steadily and relentlessly undermining their long-term standing. The occupation is basically a government subsidy subsidizing the most right-wing loons in their society to turn Israel into South Africa (but without all the primary resources).
As for the Palestinians? The occupation is functionally a responsibility subsidy for them too keeping them completely without agency. If Israel withdraws and the West Bank Palestinians attack them, they'll be responsible for what happens in response and, contra LeeEsq's wailing, the world won't stop a single damn missile or artillery shell no matter how much intersectional whining they may do. Any Palestinian who, after Gaza, has any delusions that attacks won’t be met with absolute walls of explosives and shells is deranged.
A withdrawal, however it turns out, is something Israel can survive assuredly. But continued occupation? I look at how badly the Israeli’s polity has degraded and how badly their standing has eroded in the past couple decades and I can’t say with any confidence they can take another couple decades of it. Likud is working -hard- to make the Israel question into a partisan one and once that happens then all that’ll have to go wrong to fish Israel is for the timing to not line up.
Hmm does anyone recall how fast NC counts their votes? They're very eastern and if they count fast it could be a good bellwether state.
Hmm 538 in 2020 said:
"Timing of results
Initial results will come very fast, but the rest will take time. Election officials estimate that up to 80 percent of the total vote could be announced right after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including in-person early votes and all mail ballots received by Nov. 2. Election Day returns will then trickle out over the course of the next several hours (those results are expected to take longer than usual because equipment must be sanitized after polling places close). However, North Carolina counts absentee ballots that arrive as late as Nov. 12, so there will definitely be some counting for at least nine days after Election Day. The question is whether there will be enough late-arriving ballots to keep any races uncalled."
Yeah in a lot of these cases it often seems to be the administration figures or third party mobs on social media who go way overboard out of a combination of risk/conflict aversion, stupidity and derp.
Encouraging, but the Dems erosion among other population groups offers a countervailing cause for alarm since men without college degrees are thick on the ground in the swing states, always have been, and seem to be swinging to the GOP in ever greater numbers.
Well right now, polling wise, it looks like PA would be the most likely to flip red which also makes intuitive sense since Wallz is popular in MN and a lot of people in WI commute into MN to work so that support may well bleed over. I still think the blue wall states will hold though.
Sorry Lee, the internet is not going away. If it's any help, though, odds are that people are going to increasingly ignore the winger loons even though they're more visible. Though, first, the right will need to dislodge their own wingers from, ya know, their actual institutional cores.
Harris/Walz win with the blue wall: MI, PA and WI. I’m not confident about the new purple AZ or GA to be able to even to predict anything but red for them. https://www.270towin.com/maps/KmypG
I’d say the big surprises are that there aren’t any big surprises.
Dems take the House but the GOP seems very likely to take the Senate 50-49. Tester needs a miracle to win and we don’t have a replacement pickup for his seat.
No further assassination attempts- the SS has been tightening up and the two moronic loons who made the attempts didn’t get the kind of media attention or adulation that might encourage more moronic loons to try.
Question: this article seems to assume that aid provision and preparation has somehow been lacking, inept or insufficient as a matter of fact; why is this and why have both Democratic and Republican Governors of the various afflicted states been saying the opposite?
I think you're succumbing to romance yourself. A parent who's going to be pushing for school choice is going to have successful kids virtually no matter what school said kiddo is put in because that kid has parents who care about how they do in school.
Consider, if you will, one of the biggest and widest spread beefs parents had during the Covid years- it was that the schools were remote and they were remote for a long time. I will tap the sign again "Schools first order purpose is to safely warehouse kids while their parents work".
I agree and I haven't seen any dick stepping being shouted from the rooftops. Walz was nervous but affable; Vance was smooth but peddled flat out knee slapping lies; only us junkies will pick up on that and all us junkies already know who we're voting for. The undecideds and low infos won't be moved. A push then.
Or... and consider this carefully.. that noisy visible left wing minority you keep saying is "the Democrats" aren't actually the Democrats and might be... stay with me here... a small noisy visible left wing minority?
Because the Democrats, as in the party, its politicians, etc... have been pro-Israel for quite some time and the Democrats, as in the actual voters who nominate and elect and fund the Democratic Party sure seem to be okay with that.
The Senate is a bleak landscape. If we win it this year it'll be a miracle. But if Trump and when Cocaine Mitch retires loses it'll be interesting to see what new form the GOP senate takes.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Oh I understand it too. But if you think the Palestinians hate Israel and want it destroyed then the logical thing for them to do would be to refuse to make the symbolic gestures the Israeli's say they need to withdraw. Because any clear sighted student of real politic can see that continuing the occupation is the only plausible was of destroying the Jewish state.
"
If by punishing you mean saying bad things about them? Then yes. It's all talk and always has been when you're talking about that crew.
"
You know what would get Israel unentangled from the west bank with absolutely no hope of a right of return? Withdrawal. And you can't pretend, Lee, that the ascendant political coalition in Israel doesn't, nakedly, want to keep the West Bank territories.
"
Except Israel already has terror camps set up around it and they survive just fine. What they aren't surviving, just fine, is the occupation in the West Bank which is steadily and relentlessly undermining their long-term standing. The occupation is basically a government subsidy subsidizing the most right-wing loons in their society to turn Israel into South Africa (but without all the primary resources).
As for the Palestinians? The occupation is functionally a responsibility subsidy for them too keeping them completely without agency. If Israel withdraws and the West Bank Palestinians attack them, they'll be responsible for what happens in response and, contra LeeEsq's wailing, the world won't stop a single damn missile or artillery shell no matter how much intersectional whining they may do. Any Palestinian who, after Gaza, has any delusions that attacks won’t be met with absolute walls of explosives and shells is deranged.
A withdrawal, however it turns out, is something Israel can survive assuredly. But continued occupation? I look at how badly the Israeli’s polity has degraded and how badly their standing has eroded in the past couple decades and I can’t say with any confidence they can take another couple decades of it. Likud is working -hard- to make the Israel question into a partisan one and once that happens then all that’ll have to go wrong to fish Israel is for the timing to not line up.
"
Sure, but you're still talking about a generally powerless fringe- albeit one not quite as fringy and small as it used to be.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Ahh so it may be slower. Drat.
"
Hmm does anyone recall how fast NC counts their votes? They're very eastern and if they count fast it could be a good bellwether state.
Hmm 538 in 2020 said:
"Timing of results
Initial results will come very fast, but the rest will take time. Election officials estimate that up to 80 percent of the total vote could be announced right after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including in-person early votes and all mail ballots received by Nov. 2. Election Day returns will then trickle out over the course of the next several hours (those results are expected to take longer than usual because equipment must be sanitized after polling places close). However, North Carolina counts absentee ballots that arrive as late as Nov. 12, so there will definitely be some counting for at least nine days after Election Day. The question is whether there will be enough late-arriving ballots to keep any races uncalled."
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
Yeah in a lot of these cases it often seems to be the administration figures or third party mobs on social media who go way overboard out of a combination of risk/conflict aversion, stupidity and derp.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Encouraging, but the Dems erosion among other population groups offers a countervailing cause for alarm since men without college degrees are thick on the ground in the swing states, always have been, and seem to be swinging to the GOP in ever greater numbers.
On “Open Mic for the week of 10/7/2024”
A pity, I enjoyed reading him in the glory days of the blogosphere when he blogged at the Atlantic.So... so... long ago. Ugh I need a drink.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
Well right now, polling wise, it looks like PA would be the most likely to flip red which also makes intuitive sense since Wallz is popular in MN and a lot of people in WI commute into MN to work so that support may well bleed over. I still think the blue wall states will hold though.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
Sorry Lee, the internet is not going away. If it's any help, though, odds are that people are going to increasingly ignore the winger loons even though they're more visible. Though, first, the right will need to dislodge their own wingers from, ya know, their actual institutional cores.
On “The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: The 2024 Presidential Election”
I’ll start us off!
Harris/Walz win with the blue wall: MI, PA and WI. I’m not confident about the new purple AZ or GA to be able to even to predict anything but red for them. https://www.270towin.com/maps/KmypG
I’d say the big surprises are that there aren’t any big surprises.
Dems take the House but the GOP seems very likely to take the Senate 50-49. Tester needs a miracle to win and we don’t have a replacement pickup for his seat.
No further assassination attempts- the SS has been tightening up and the two moronic loons who made the attempts didn’t get the kind of media attention or adulation that might encourage more moronic loons to try.
On “Of Conspiracy Theories and Helene”
Question: this article seems to assume that aid provision and preparation has somehow been lacking, inept or insufficient as a matter of fact; why is this and why have both Democratic and Republican Governors of the various afflicted states been saying the opposite?
On “Port Strikes and Tariff Wars”
This is a huge relief.
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
I so hope you're right.
"
Yes, I managed to get in before the second one so, in hindsight, my comment looks silly.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/30/2024”
I think you're succumbing to romance yourself. A parent who's going to be pushing for school choice is going to have successful kids virtually no matter what school said kiddo is put in because that kid has parents who care about how they do in school.
Consider, if you will, one of the biggest and widest spread beefs parents had during the Covid years- it was that the schools were remote and they were remote for a long time. I will tap the sign again "Schools first order purpose is to safely warehouse kids while their parents work".
On “Let’s face it: We knew that Harris would win back in August”
What the heck? Did this publish a month early? I need to go knock on wood and collect some rabbits feet or something!
On “Vice Presidential Candidate Debate: Sen JD Vance vs Gov Tim Walz”
I agree and I haven't seen any dick stepping being shouted from the rooftops. Walz was nervous but affable; Vance was smooth but peddled flat out knee slapping lies; only us junkies will pick up on that and all us junkies already know who we're voting for. The undecideds and low infos won't be moved. A push then.
"
Sounds like a push from all I've picked up. Vance may have won on points but in terms of moving voters I am guessing it's a "no effect" result.
On “Why a Trump Loss is Best for Conservatives”
Or arguably Green or something else I suppose.
"
Or... and consider this carefully.. that noisy visible left wing minority you keep saying is "the Democrats" aren't actually the Democrats and might be... stay with me here... a small noisy visible left wing minority?
Because the Democrats, as in the party, its politicians, etc... have been pro-Israel for quite some time and the Democrats, as in the actual voters who nominate and elect and fund the Democratic Party sure seem to be okay with that.
On “The Race to Control the Senate”
Sure, but that still means a GOP Senate.
"
The Senate is a bleak landscape. If we win it this year it'll be a miracle. But if Trump and when Cocaine Mitch retires loses it'll be interesting to see what new form the GOP senate takes.