Although, if I recall correctly, republicans were happy to join your efforts ending the filibuster for Judicial nominations when it was their turn. You can never be too careful about who will join your efforts and how much they will enjoy it.
There seems to be a lot of pent-up anger against free flights and upgrades. And we don't even have Ryan Air here.
The Matching Funds Fraud was safeguarded by *notarized* certification letter... which strikes me as Tammany shorthand for Give me My Matching funds -- at least when we compare it to 21st century electronic verification and work flow financial technology.
I'm further bemused by the FDNY/Turkish Consulate occupancy certificate scandal which genuinely seems like good 'Borough Presidenting'
Somebody hates Adams in NYC, I'm just curious who and why -- I couldn't care less whether he sinks or swims.
Certainly possible... but I'm talking about groups that I can travel between freely -- from Charismatics to OrthoCaths to TradCaths to RadTrads and most places between.
There's no consensus, not even a 'lesser of two evils' consensus -- which is doubly interesting because the Pope recently threw up his hands and said it's a lesser of two evils election, but darned if he could tell which evil to vote for (since he's not an American). Which isn't to bring the Pope into American politics (about which he is famously ill-informed) -- it's just to say that the 'lesser of two evils' framing used to mean something and now it doesn't mean what it used to mean from a consensus point of view.
In the end, people will vote as they've habitually voted ... so I don't see any meaningful electoral shifts coming, just a growing sense that there's no way out of the box.
It's different in my lifetime... maybe it was more the case in the 1850s when you were a kid :-) ... but the post-war consensus was real.
We had entire culturally affirming TV shows that were about Republicans and Democrats living together and marrying each other.
It's different; doesn't mean that what's happening today will get worse, it could get better! Or stay the same... but I'd disagree that the current Red/Blue tribalism is the same as it always has been.
There's an alternate reality somewhere where the Maronites, Sunni and Druze make common cause w/Israel to root out Hezbollah... but it isn't this one. Lebanon is a cautionary tale of a failed one-state solution for a multi-ethnic state where one part of the ethno-coalition defects so hard it creates an ungovernable enclave effectively ending the project.
After the people, I hope they spare the vineyards in the Bekaa Valley.
Yahoo News ran a story based on unpublished analysis by the Gender Equity Policy Institute claiming Texas' maternal mortality rates rose 56% after the heartbeat act went into force.
Most TradCaths I know are not MAGA, but similar to me they won't shut-up about whatever our bespoke political philosophy that we can't vote for but would if we could should be. So, yeah, getting an opinion of any sort is pretty easy with that crowd.
Catholics and Evangelicals are political allies only as long as neither knows the other supports the thing they're allied on. Suggesting anything closer is a bit of a category error springing from failed Bush II projects.
I wish I had a good read on how my local orthodox Catholic community intends to vote, but conversations about politics have gone somewhat underground. There's definitely a small contingent that is very Pro-Trump but I don't see them making in-roads, and in fact they've alienated quite a few folks who were reliable republicans. Mostly it feels like quiet despair in the political process; there's no enthusiasm, not even negative enthusiasm.
Resigned negative polarization is best I can fathom... if there are three types of voters, these voters are looking for a reason to stay home. More than last time will vote Solidarity in protest.
Forgot the link to a FL document:
https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2020/EO_20-89.pdf
(Note for JB: this link is to a .pdf... whatever you do, please be advised that a pdf will open in your browser... please take all necessary actions for this internet event)
Chat GPT is becoming useful for helping me sort near-recent memories. For example, when I ask about Covid Policies in VA and FL it serves up solid summaries and references to policy docs (I checked to make sure they weren't hallucinations!).
Basically, both states took dramatic public measures to curtail business and gatherings starting on or around April 1, 2020.
Florida's executive order was April 1, and takes as it's model the Miami-Dade order which starts:
1. All non-essential retail and commercial establishments are ordered closed. [Miami-Dade]
DeSantis then continues:
I hereby order Miami-Dade County, Broward County, Palm Beach County
and Monroe County to restrict public access to businesses and facilities deemed non-essential
pursuant to the guidelines established by Miami-Dade County pursuant to its March 19, 2020
Emergency Order 07-20... etc. etc.
Now, of course, the interesting thing are the list of 'exceptions' for what is considered essential, but that's a sociological commentary for another time.
But, the one thing none of us should argue is that nation-wide businesses, schools, livelihoods and social interactions were in fact curtailed by government orders, including fines. It's weird to contend otherwise.
What's also interesting is following the path of VA and FL for their re-opening policies...
Both states kicked-off their 'Re-Opening' processes in May 2020 (FL was more restrictive)
Phase 2 in VA *and* FL started in June. However, in FL Miami-Dade was not authorized to enter Phase 2 until SEPT.
Meanwhile, Phase 3 started in VA in JUL, but Phase 3 started in FL in SEPT (except in Miami-Dade, which entered Phase 2)... and Phase 3a (removal of fines) commenced NOV 24th in FL. Whereas VA pulled back in NOV with another surge.
Basically, the country did impose strict economic and social restrictions that were far more macro and significant than mico issues of masking... and those restrictions were very severe indeed for approx 6-weeks starting April 2020 ... thereafter Re-Opening policies more or less tracked a general trends - your state/locality mmv - with major outliers in Education.
After vaccines rolled out in MAR 2021, I'd say that's when the *real* stupidity and political polarization kicks in.
But 2020 -- when the Regulator Sex Parties(TM) were happening -- that was the time of collective sacrifice when people lost their jobs, their businesses, and social lives via regulations. In the UK it cost Boris his government; in the US it doesn't seem to have cost anyone anything.
Been busy and missed out on all the fun other threads. So, anticlimactically here are my grades:
Harris:
Undermining Trump: A/A+
Building Trust: C+
Main takeaway: the muted mics helped her; instead of playing prosecutor and fact-checker-in-chief, she seeded her responses with trigger phrases that sent him off on egomaniacal rants. I thought the comment about people walking out of his rallies was a little too obvious... but it turns out that obvious plays.
Trump:
Undermining Harris: D
Building Trust: F-
Main takeaway: Moron. Not only did he chase every delusion with which Harris taunted him; but in so doing he enabled her to dodge answering questions about her positions... AND... it so distracted him that he wasn't able to redirect or plant any landmines about her previous positions.
In some ways it was a mirror of Biden's debate: Trump came across as an old man yelling at clouds. Where Biden couldn't talk, Trump couldn't shut up.
Debates remind me of important Sales presentations... it isn't really about 'debating' it's about execution and giving your audience confidence that you understand what the problem(s) is and that you have a viable solution, and lastly they trust that you can execute that solution.
To the extent that people think Harris or Trump ought to 'destroy' the other candidate with their debating skills...those people a plain wrong and should be kicked out of the prep room. The proper preparation for the evening should be focused on Trust.
Both candidates have serious (and different) weaknesses in the Trust department. The 'winner' of the debate will be the person who undermines the other's Trust quotient while defending theirs.
Trump, I expect, will pull out (unpopular) position after position that Kamala has publicly held; we know she has changed her mind on those positions (or, we're told she has)... but that's her job -- show that she LOVES fracking; best thing ever... throw some environmentalists under the proverbial bus. Right now she has a 'checkbox' position on all of these items. She needs to make people Trust that she's really on the popular side of the issue and that they can trust her to deliver.
Trump's Trust issue, however, is not really the issue that Dems have been pushing... it isn't about Democracy (honestly, Dems have Trust issues on Democracy that y'all are kinda deaf to, but I digress). Harris will be successful if she undermines Trump's Trust issues on Abortion (which I expect she'll do), but if she's smart she doesn't trumpet her own extreme positions, instead she points out how he's UnTrustworthy to his own team -- he's willing to betray anyone for his own gain. Can you really Trust him on China? Where was he on the CHIPS act? What about his donor's interests in China? What about his family's interests? Can you really trust his economic policies when the only real thing he did as president was pass an unfunded Tax Cut that heavily benefited his own bottom line? Are you sure he's on your side? Is that really his MO?
See, the trick is you have to exploit the Trust issues that Normies have about the other guy... not the Trust issues your team has about the other guy. Similarly, you know your trust is going to be attacked... can you defend it in such a way that Normies think you're reliable?
The thing about presentations is that it isn't the content, exactly, it's command of the material and the ability to answer objections with clarity and simplicity. That's all a debate really is... it's not about rhetorical flourishes or gotcha moments. If, however, a gotcha moment arises... it's command of the material that let's you capitalize on it!
That's a great dish... we have it all the time with grilled foods. We make it as a Greek country salad substitute: Tomatoes, cucumbers, red onions and feta, but tossed with red wine vinegar and olive oil... heavier on the vinegar side -- helps cut through the grilled meat flavors.
I recognize that legal use of words like 'Involuntary Manslaughter' have special meanings and not plain meaning... but shouldn't the 'limiting' factor be something like an accessory and/or aiding/abetting?
Seems you could make incremental gains on secure storage of arms with minors in the house if you reliably convicted people of aiding and negligence crimes rather than going all-in on Murder charges. Taking their house with fines and exposing adults to civil liability for negligence is probably a step might gain traction.
Heh, those are good off-the-cuff jokes for the technician. I tend to treat medical techs like the soup n*zi... yes or no with no extraneous observations lest I break some unknown convention.
My youngest turned 10 yesterday, so today we're going to the Cubs/Nationals game. And, it just so happens that my folks are in town, so taking my dad as well. When I went to order the tickets a month ago, the seats we wanted would have left a singleton -- and to my surprise the wouldn't let me buy those seats. Seemed like a 'them' problem and not a 'me' problem... but them made it a me problem, so I bought the singleton so now my daughter and her fiance are coming too.
My dad has been a Cubs fan since the 50s, I since the 70s, Son #1 since the 00s and the birthday boy since the 20s. That's a lot of baseball suffering right there.
Obviously some sort of colossal marketing failure; people like to try the new shiny to see if its better than the old stand-by. Whether the numbers hold-up is a different issue. But 256 players at launch is an anti-pattern. I'd never heard of it (but not surprising, as not my type of game) and I haven't heard any controversy about it... so somehow a $100M game launched into the void? Weird.
I'm of two minds learning that it seems to be Harris that wants the mics ON.
On the one hand, I take your point that maybe Team Harris is playing for a Colonel Jessup moment.
On the other, I wonder if they want to set-up Harris doing her [hand up] 'I'm speaking' line, which I think they think will be super effective.
If it's the former, sure... why not gamble?
If it's the latter? I don't think that plays as well outside of Dem Circles and Academic sensibilities as they think it does. And, honestly, if Trump's gonna bulldoze something it's gonna be that.
Heh, not my type of game, but I did play overwatch to see what it was all about... and this looks like knock-off brand overwatch. Post Raisin bran, not the good Kellogg's Raisin bran.
On the needless controversy side, I'd suggest at least one dude who looks cool for your generic shooter.
Besides, didn't Fortnite kinda redefine the genre years ago?
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/23/2024”
Heh, when John Roberts is the Fash we've all been warned about you have to step back and realize your message isn't going to land.
"
Although, if I recall correctly, republicans were happy to join your efforts ending the filibuster for Judicial nominations when it was their turn. You can never be too careful about who will join your efforts and how much they will enjoy it.
"
You should do it. I double dog dare you.
On “New York City Mayor Eric Adams Indictment: Read It For Yourself”
There seems to be a lot of pent-up anger against free flights and upgrades. And we don't even have Ryan Air here.
The Matching Funds Fraud was safeguarded by *notarized* certification letter... which strikes me as Tammany shorthand for Give me My Matching funds -- at least when we compare it to 21st century electronic verification and work flow financial technology.
I'm further bemused by the FDNY/Turkish Consulate occupancy certificate scandal which genuinely seems like good 'Borough Presidenting'
Somebody hates Adams in NYC, I'm just curious who and why -- I couldn't care less whether he sinks or swims.
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
Pshaw, Team Red and Team Blue? pikers.
We've brought empires to a halt with the Greens and Blues...
We've taken sides between Pope and Emperor with Guelphs and Ghibellines...
If there's one thing we know, it's how to split the vote.
"
Certainly possible... but I'm talking about groups that I can travel between freely -- from Charismatics to OrthoCaths to TradCaths to RadTrads and most places between.
There's no consensus, not even a 'lesser of two evils' consensus -- which is doubly interesting because the Pope recently threw up his hands and said it's a lesser of two evils election, but darned if he could tell which evil to vote for (since he's not an American). Which isn't to bring the Pope into American politics (about which he is famously ill-informed) -- it's just to say that the 'lesser of two evils' framing used to mean something and now it doesn't mean what it used to mean from a consensus point of view.
In the end, people will vote as they've habitually voted ... so I don't see any meaningful electoral shifts coming, just a growing sense that there's no way out of the box.
"
It's different in my lifetime... maybe it was more the case in the 1850s when you were a kid :-) ... but the post-war consensus was real.
We had entire culturally affirming TV shows that were about Republicans and Democrats living together and marrying each other.
It's different; doesn't mean that what's happening today will get worse, it could get better! Or stay the same... but I'd disagree that the current Red/Blue tribalism is the same as it always has been.
"
I already have my prediction ready to go.
If we wait too long the prognosticator juice will turn into the heady wine of postmortem analysis.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/23/2024”
There's an alternate reality somewhere where the Maronites, Sunni and Druze make common cause w/Israel to root out Hezbollah... but it isn't this one. Lebanon is a cautionary tale of a failed one-state solution for a multi-ethnic state where one part of the ethno-coalition defects so hard it creates an ungovernable enclave effectively ending the project.
After the people, I hope they spare the vineyards in the Bekaa Valley.
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
p.s. When is the quadrennial OT Presidential Prediction Thread going up? Oct 1?
At this point I think we have as much prognosticator juice as we're going to get this cycle.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/16/2024”
On “History Will Be Made: Harris VS Trump”
Most TradCaths I know are not MAGA, but similar to me they won't shut-up about whatever our bespoke political philosophy that we can't vote for but would if we could should be. So, yeah, getting an opinion of any sort is pretty easy with that crowd.
Catholics and Evangelicals are political allies only as long as neither knows the other supports the thing they're allied on. Suggesting anything closer is a bit of a category error springing from failed Bush II projects.
"
I wish I had a good read on how my local orthodox Catholic community intends to vote, but conversations about politics have gone somewhat underground. There's definitely a small contingent that is very Pro-Trump but I don't see them making in-roads, and in fact they've alienated quite a few folks who were reliable republicans. Mostly it feels like quiet despair in the political process; there's no enthusiasm, not even negative enthusiasm.
Resigned negative polarization is best I can fathom... if there are three types of voters, these voters are looking for a reason to stay home. More than last time will vote Solidarity in protest.
On “Open Mic for the week of 9/16/2024”
Forgot the link to a FL document:
https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2020/EO_20-89.pdf
(Note for JB: this link is to a .pdf... whatever you do, please be advised that a pdf will open in your browser... please take all necessary actions for this internet event)
"
If Kraftwerk and Joy Division had a baby.
"
Chat GPT is becoming useful for helping me sort near-recent memories. For example, when I ask about Covid Policies in VA and FL it serves up solid summaries and references to policy docs (I checked to make sure they weren't hallucinations!).
Basically, both states took dramatic public measures to curtail business and gatherings starting on or around April 1, 2020.
Florida's executive order was April 1, and takes as it's model the Miami-Dade order which starts:
1. All non-essential retail and commercial establishments are ordered closed. [Miami-Dade]
DeSantis then continues:
I hereby order Miami-Dade County, Broward County, Palm Beach County
and Monroe County to restrict public access to businesses and facilities deemed non-essential
pursuant to the guidelines established by Miami-Dade County pursuant to its March 19, 2020
Emergency Order 07-20... etc. etc.
Now, of course, the interesting thing are the list of 'exceptions' for what is considered essential, but that's a sociological commentary for another time.
But, the one thing none of us should argue is that nation-wide businesses, schools, livelihoods and social interactions were in fact curtailed by government orders, including fines. It's weird to contend otherwise.
What's also interesting is following the path of VA and FL for their re-opening policies...
Both states kicked-off their 'Re-Opening' processes in May 2020 (FL was more restrictive)
Phase 2 in VA *and* FL started in June. However, in FL Miami-Dade was not authorized to enter Phase 2 until SEPT.
Meanwhile, Phase 3 started in VA in JUL, but Phase 3 started in FL in SEPT (except in Miami-Dade, which entered Phase 2)... and Phase 3a (removal of fines) commenced NOV 24th in FL. Whereas VA pulled back in NOV with another surge.
Basically, the country did impose strict economic and social restrictions that were far more macro and significant than mico issues of masking... and those restrictions were very severe indeed for approx 6-weeks starting April 2020 ... thereafter Re-Opening policies more or less tracked a general trends - your state/locality mmv - with major outliers in Education.
After vaccines rolled out in MAR 2021, I'd say that's when the *real* stupidity and political polarization kicks in.
But 2020 -- when the Regulator Sex Parties(TM) were happening -- that was the time of collective sacrifice when people lost their jobs, their businesses, and social lives via regulations. In the UK it cost Boris his government; in the US it doesn't seem to have cost anyone anything.
On “Brace Yourselves: The Debate is Coming”
Been busy and missed out on all the fun other threads. So, anticlimactically here are my grades:
Harris:
Undermining Trump: A/A+
Building Trust: C+
Main takeaway: the muted mics helped her; instead of playing prosecutor and fact-checker-in-chief, she seeded her responses with trigger phrases that sent him off on egomaniacal rants. I thought the comment about people walking out of his rallies was a little too obvious... but it turns out that obvious plays.
Trump:
Undermining Harris: D
Building Trust: F-
Main takeaway: Moron. Not only did he chase every delusion with which Harris taunted him; but in so doing he enabled her to dodge answering questions about her positions... AND... it so distracted him that he wasn't able to redirect or plant any landmines about her previous positions.
In some ways it was a mirror of Biden's debate: Trump came across as an old man yelling at clouds. Where Biden couldn't talk, Trump couldn't shut up.
"
Debates remind me of important Sales presentations... it isn't really about 'debating' it's about execution and giving your audience confidence that you understand what the problem(s) is and that you have a viable solution, and lastly they trust that you can execute that solution.
To the extent that people think Harris or Trump ought to 'destroy' the other candidate with their debating skills...those people a plain wrong and should be kicked out of the prep room. The proper preparation for the evening should be focused on Trust.
Both candidates have serious (and different) weaknesses in the Trust department. The 'winner' of the debate will be the person who undermines the other's Trust quotient while defending theirs.
Trump, I expect, will pull out (unpopular) position after position that Kamala has publicly held; we know she has changed her mind on those positions (or, we're told she has)... but that's her job -- show that she LOVES fracking; best thing ever... throw some environmentalists under the proverbial bus. Right now she has a 'checkbox' position on all of these items. She needs to make people Trust that she's really on the popular side of the issue and that they can trust her to deliver.
Trump's Trust issue, however, is not really the issue that Dems have been pushing... it isn't about Democracy (honestly, Dems have Trust issues on Democracy that y'all are kinda deaf to, but I digress). Harris will be successful if she undermines Trump's Trust issues on Abortion (which I expect she'll do), but if she's smart she doesn't trumpet her own extreme positions, instead she points out how he's UnTrustworthy to his own team -- he's willing to betray anyone for his own gain. Can you really Trust him on China? Where was he on the CHIPS act? What about his donor's interests in China? What about his family's interests? Can you really trust his economic policies when the only real thing he did as president was pass an unfunded Tax Cut that heavily benefited his own bottom line? Are you sure he's on your side? Is that really his MO?
See, the trick is you have to exploit the Trust issues that Normies have about the other guy... not the Trust issues your team has about the other guy. Similarly, you know your trust is going to be attacked... can you defend it in such a way that Normies think you're reliable?
The thing about presentations is that it isn't the content, exactly, it's command of the material and the ability to answer objections with clarity and simplicity. That's all a debate really is... it's not about rhetorical flourishes or gotcha moments. If, however, a gotcha moment arises... it's command of the material that let's you capitalize on it!
On “The Minecraft Trailer Needs to be Fed To a Creeper”
Lego movie and Lego Batman ... with a hint of Jumanji?
Half the discontinuity (IMO) is using a (dated) Beatles track repeating a seemingly irrelevant catch-phrase: Magical Mystery Tour?
On “Weekend Plans Post: Greek Couscous Salad”
That's a great dish... we have it all the time with grilled foods. We make it as a Greek country salad substitute: Tomatoes, cucumbers, red onions and feta, but tossed with red wine vinegar and olive oil... heavier on the vinegar side -- helps cut through the grilled meat flavors.
On “Apalachee Killer’s Father Now Charged”
I recognize that legal use of words like 'Involuntary Manslaughter' have special meanings and not plain meaning... but shouldn't the 'limiting' factor be something like an accessory and/or aiding/abetting?
Seems you could make incremental gains on secure storage of arms with minors in the house if you reliably convicted people of aiding and negligence crimes rather than going all-in on Murder charges. Taking their house with fines and exposing adults to civil liability for negligence is probably a step might gain traction.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The MRI”
Heh, those are good off-the-cuff jokes for the technician. I tend to treat medical techs like the soup n*zi... yes or no with no extraneous observations lest I break some unknown convention.
My youngest turned 10 yesterday, so today we're going to the Cubs/Nationals game. And, it just so happens that my folks are in town, so taking my dad as well. When I went to order the tickets a month ago, the seats we wanted would have left a singleton -- and to my surprise the wouldn't let me buy those seats. Seemed like a 'them' problem and not a 'me' problem... but them made it a me problem, so I bought the singleton so now my daughter and her fiance are coming too.
My dad has been a Cubs fan since the 50s, I since the 70s, Son #1 since the 00s and the birthday boy since the 20s. That's a lot of baseball suffering right there.
On “Mindless Diversions Extra: The Audience That Wasn’t There”
Obviously some sort of colossal marketing failure; people like to try the new shiny to see if its better than the old stand-by. Whether the numbers hold-up is a different issue. But 256 players at launch is an anti-pattern. I'd never heard of it (but not surprising, as not my type of game) and I haven't heard any controversy about it... so somehow a $100M game launched into the void? Weird.
On “Open Mic for the week of 8/26/2024”
I'm of two minds learning that it seems to be Harris that wants the mics ON.
On the one hand, I take your point that maybe Team Harris is playing for a Colonel Jessup moment.
On the other, I wonder if they want to set-up Harris doing her [hand up] 'I'm speaking' line, which I think they think will be super effective.
If it's the former, sure... why not gamble?
If it's the latter? I don't think that plays as well outside of Dem Circles and Academic sensibilities as they think it does. And, honestly, if Trump's gonna bulldoze something it's gonna be that.
On “Mindless Diversions Extra: The Audience That Wasn’t There”
Heh, not my type of game, but I did play overwatch to see what it was all about... and this looks like knock-off brand overwatch. Post Raisin bran, not the good Kellogg's Raisin bran.
On the needless controversy side, I'd suggest at least one dude who looks cool for your generic shooter.
Besides, didn't Fortnite kinda redefine the genre years ago?