I think what's coalescing is confusion over the 11-yr blanket pardon.
That is, when I did a little research and found out that Pres. Carter(!) commuted G. Gordon Liddy's sentence to basically time-served plus the $40k fine; there seemed to be a pretty plausible defense for commuting Hunter's sentence and leaving the fines/tax re-payments intact.
Most everyone goes... yeah, the convictions stand, he pays the fines, and it's not like Hunter Biden is going to practice law anymore... and who among us hasn't wanted to avoid paying taxes? And of course everyone would prevent their son from going to prison, if he pays the fines and taxes. Aw, Biden is so cute.
The 11-yrs of crimes he 'may' have committed or been party to? That's just begging the question, besides not paying taxes on the $Ms he received, are we really confident those $M were legally gotten? Did he fill out all of his Foreign Lobbying forms? Seems a lot of folks forget to register as Foreign Lobbyists when funds start landing from abroad.
I think the 'news gathering' portion is also changing, and is ripe for more change.
While it always relied on contractors to a certain extent; I think it's now closer to 90% contractors and the bigger problem right now is that NYT and other news agencies are 'sourcing' the gathering to people with agendas that they either endorse, decode, or don't catch.
But once you're not actually putting Wolfe Blitzer's boots on the ground and are instead relying on NGO's to provide those boots, then it's a matter of screening and money.
We're already seeing close collaboration between the Parties and their Network(s) of choice... there's nothing to stop better 'vertical integration' of gathering, reporting, opining and direct political messaging as just another cost of running campaigns.
Might be slightly easier in an Internet based National news framework -- no need to run Decatur to Syracuse to Waco news desks.
I think we're just returning to broad form advocacy journalism that was the norm before the post-war consensus.
Every outlet will have it's faction; some will be artful and well crafted, others just plain yellow journalism.
It was the pretending that neutrality was still the norm that has been disabused entirely. The interesting question to me is the hour of it's death. It obviously starts with FOX, but when did the virus kill the host? 2012? 2020? Not sure, honestly. But I think it's dead.
I thought he might commute the sentence then issue a broad pardon...
It's complicated because it was the Biden DOJ that eventually secured the indictment and conviction of really egregious Tax Evasion -- like not even fudging, just not paying any taxes on $Ms in 2016, 17, 18 & 19.
I think it's pretty clear that the DOJ attempted to do something like that with their plea deal: almost commuting the sentence with a sort of 'pocket pardon' on the back-end. But that got upended by a judge who questioned the terms forcing the DOJ to say there *wasn't* immunity which HB then rejected.
It's not really a Trump thing.
I mean, I'm hearing rumblings that he's now open to questioning without access to the 5th -- but I'm not exactly sure how that would work. What it might could do is open him up to a *future* crime of lying under oath - assuming the FBI has just enough to catch him in some 'truths' that work at cross purposes.
TLDR: Probably should have commuted the specific convictions and stopped there ... the decade long blanket pardon may be a gift too far.
The situation now is the same as it was before the election. There's a body of work and an understanding by the electorate of what the Democratic party stands for.
Going silent on a few topics doesn't change perceptions nor signal a new direction.
Silence in this situation doesn't signal change; and that's fine if there no intention to change. But I'd not act surprised if silence continues to imply consent for folks who wonder if the silence should actually imply change.
Only surprised that he did it so early; was expecting it as one of the many that will be signed Jan 19th. I guess it had to do with the upcoming sentencings. And maybe Christmas.
It's not an everything-burger, but it's not a nothing-burger... it's a something-burger that just muddies the waters when Trump blanket pardons his family and then himself. That's the thing about a pardon: it's a gift wholly in the power of the President. There's no (necessary) pretext of justice or process or meaningful criteria; simply a gift of the Head of State. The only recourse is to impeach the President for applying his Presidential Powers thus. That's a check of sorts, but an ex post facto check. Which is why Jan 19 is such a busy day, ordinarily.
The escalation, if there is one, is if Biden pardons a bunch of Govt. folks to 'protect' them from Trump; it's a challenging iteration problem. If you pre-emptively pardon Govt folks for fear of a event that hasn't happened for crimes they supposedly haven't committed, well, I think you've just ushed in a new norm. And that norm sort of immanentizes the thing you were afraid was going to happen: Govt employees acting with presumed future immunity.
Now, I suspect that Biden will *not* do this since most of these calls are from the irrational Left and Biden's instincts are usually stolid when it comes to institutions... but that's what I'd watch for. Else Hunter's pardon is just the new normal for family, a +1 to the Billy Carter precedent.
Sounds like fun; does the B&B have a fireplace? Is there snow in Iceland (one hopes)? It's good to have family, but better to have a few friends and extras at the table.
Brisket is a favorite of ours for Thanksgiving... we chuckle when we see recipes that say 2-3 hrs cooking time. We budget about 6 hrs... cooktime for braising recipes is like garlic ... they always understate the right number.
On Weds I got our first deer; on the plus side fresh venison tenderloin for Thanksgiving; on the negative side, had to breakdown and butcher an entire deer the Weds before thanksgiving. Got it done and even managed to make one of the three side dishes I was hoping to make on Weds. Priorities.
We had all the kids home for dinner, less the middle son who is abroad on a walkabout, but plus the fiance to eldest daughter... so 6 kids of one stripe or another. Ate the afore mentioned venison and dry brined Turkey. We don't usually do turkey, but got a small 10 pounder and treated it like chicken. Dry brining is much better (IMO) than wet brining... the meat was moist but firmer and had a slight 'ham cured' background note. Served with a Cotes de Nuit Burgundy and an Oregon Pinot so family could build-up their comparative palates.
Treating today like a Sunday knowing that I get a bonus Sunday in two days.
They even have small sizes for your girlie sized suburban needs. Lady Marchmaine mentioned that she wanted a dumpster for her last birthday (I have it in writing) and was surprised that we could get one in 2-days.
It's true that Trump only won by approx 1.5%, but the interesting thing to me is that Biden won by 4.5% so the *swing* is really significant ... plus winning the popular vote upended a growing narrative that the Dems were 'assured' 2%-3% popular vote win and needed at least that just to offset the EC 'bias'.
That's a genuinely big swing that wasn't anticipated.
Heh, yeah there have always been bespoke tailors that offer a full experience; I should have qualified that this was a store at a mall.
Like, you could just walk in with your cinnabon and buy a suit... but the experience would still be integrated with your advisor providing end-to-end service via the hand-held device.
The hybrid-online-in-person experience is what made it different from, say, Men's Warehouse.
It's more of an 'experience'. The old way was a sales-guy talking about the fabric/color/style and then you went back to the shabby (ethnic) tailor who took lots of measurements and asked how big of a break you wanted in the trouser.
Now imagine the Tailor is impeccably dressed, offers you coffee, and wants to understand your vibe before bringing you some options to consider. And, while you are trying on the suit *he* thinks is the right suit, he starts pinning it and making recommendations on the alterations. But your choice, of course... you could try on the *other* suits that don't look as good on you... up to you, really.
Basically I bought the Grey Suit he brought out after the vibe check -- theoretically to test the fitting/size he needed to see if the Green suit was available.
As a Tech Sales guy, I appreciated that he had mastered some important 'technical' aspects of design and tailoring/fit and still managed the relationship part as well. But that's why it was more of an 'experience' than a transaction.
But, if you are too self-conscious or didn't develop rapport with your advisor, it would be a much worse experience.
Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn't prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is self-binding, but breaking the convention does not prohibit other nations from acting.
But to your main point; Russia may *also* demonstrate that the nukes themselves work in some fashion. But honestly, it's much more important to demonstrate that the delivery mechanisms work than the nukes themselves.
Gambling that the nukes are all duds? That's just a bad gamble if the delivery systems work.
Yeah, it turns out that the dark green suit I was interested in was 'last year's' style and all they had left were starving dickensian waif sizes. But, I'm pleased to note that Lady Marchmaine relented and agreed that the color, fabric and styling would've been more than acceptable.
I refrained from commenting to my very stylish suit advisor that he had no idea how many 'style seasons' my other suits usually last.
So, in fact, I did end up with a Grey suit... but it's got a little 'zip' to it and isn't *just* a grey suit if you know what I mean. It's also cut and stitched in the Italian fashion. And, after a little tailoring to account for my...erm...age and wisdom, it should actually hang well. Added a custom waistcoat of the same fabric to push it over the top.
The shopping experience was very millenial/zoomer ... hybrid online handheld device to search fabric, inventory, options and to build the suit; with sizing/tailoring on-the-spot by the advisor; and finally the sale was completed by the advisor on the device. No tailors, managers, or checkout process... just you and your advisor. Though, every once in a while an 'expert advisor' would swing by to review the fit and make tailoring recommendations... but that's probably because I was an edge case from their usual (fit) 25-45 demographic.
Sounds awesome (again) ... going to the thermal electric site? That sounded cool.
I have to go to the Big Suburbs to get a new suit for Oldest Daughter's wedding; I have my eye on a Dark Dark Green (practically charcoal) Italian suit with a double breasted waistcoat. But I'm being shadowed by Lady Marchmaine under orders (I suspect) of the bride. So I'll probably end up with a boring Grey suit.
We have to make an appointment, so I'm sure the experience will be awkward for everyone involved; my personal Suit guy (dude?) has already texted me asking what I'm looking for. I don't know the words I'm supposed to use, other than, 'A new suit' -- so I'm just going to let my silence heighten the experience.
I could see it as a statement: "In case you're wondering if our intermediate and long-range Nuclear deterrent still functions in post-Soviet Russia..."
I'm curious to see if he takes his seat in the next congress... I'd assume yes, but seeing some armchair House Rules mongering that he resigned from both current and future congresses.
Maybe he figured he was going to get Santos'ed so he's indifferent... but if not, would be the first of many who's careers Trump will end.
"Hey, Vincent, don't you see? That sh*t don't matter. You're judging this sh*t the wrong way. I mean, it could be that God stopped the bullets, or He changed Coke to Pepsi, He found my f***ing car keys. You don't judge sh*t like this based on merit. Now, whether or not what we experienced was an "according to Hoyle" miracle is insignificant. What is significant is that I felt the touch of God. God got involved."
[Joke aside, I think the unprepared kid on the roof missed. Missed close, but missed all the same]
Yeah, but as I said on Twitter... I'm not sure Trump is qualified to exploit a Trump victory at the polls.
He might buckle down and focus on shepherding legacy defining legislation through congress; or he might appoint Matt Gaetz and just f*ck around with the DOJ for two years. Hard to say, really.
The modern Federal machine has 1-yr to execute whatever their mandate heart desires... and which can muster 60-votes in the Senate.
...or can be maneuvered through a reconciliation bill on straight party-line votes.
...or is no longer subject to the filibuster.
...or nukes the filibuster.
...or -- and this is the real meaning of a mandate -- voting against the proposed 'Mandate Legislation' will cause you to lose your next election because the Mandate Party will take their mandate for this legislation and use it for that.
Clearly the Republicans have a reconciliation bill level of mandate.
It could, however, attempt to leverage an 'Immigration Mandate' because many Dems campaigned on Immigration and the Dems are concerned about Immigration at the polls ... so Trump could position a Trump inflected Migration Bill that needs the support of 7 senators to pass. It all depends on whether there are 7 Senators who are vulnerable to the *Immigration Mandate*... or Dem leadership that is worried about campaigning against Immigration Reform and pressures for a general consensus bill. But make no mistake, it will be a general consensus bill of Trump's influence, not the weak tea that was served prior to the election.
I never have any confidence that Trump and his team can execute on these sorts of things... but if he does, that's what he can accomplish before 2026 as part of a 'Mandate' strategy.
That, and I assume they can just extend the TCJA for 4 (8?) years via reconciliation? In some ways it's ironic that Trump wanted the TCJA to expire on his successor's watch, but now that he's the successor, he can probably just extend it 4 or 8 more years (depending on the limits of Reconciliation).
Biden was CiC during the Evacuation; he's the one who had primary responsibility for oversight for that specific operation. He ordered it, the Generals and their Staffs planned and executed it. It is his role to see to it that operational failures are reviewed and accountability maintained.
The outcome is accountability in the US Military; it's genuinely an important outcome that Sr. Officers in charge of Military operations are held accountable for the success or failure of missions. It's also a bedrock principle of the Officer Corps itself.
One could, perhaps, make a broader argument that the Flag Officers in all branches have increasingly been exempted from this level of accountability; and that this represents a sort of regulatory capture of DoD, and I'd certainly be sympathetic to that... but that just means that Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump should acknowledge this 'problem' and take more and more timely corrective actions.
Afghanistan was particularly egregious; and, Biden didn't do his duty. Ironically, he ended up taking all the heat for it, and that moment was the start of the precipitous decline in his approvals.
I'd even go so far as to say, it would have been to his advantage to own the decision to withdraw, but acknowledge that the operation was botched, and hold the Sr. Staff accountable. It would have demonstrated his own competence and leadership, plus make sure that the Civilian Commander in Chief takes responsibility for the order, but the military takes responsibility for the execution.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
I think what's coalescing is confusion over the 11-yr blanket pardon.
That is, when I did a little research and found out that Pres. Carter(!) commuted G. Gordon Liddy's sentence to basically time-served plus the $40k fine; there seemed to be a pretty plausible defense for commuting Hunter's sentence and leaving the fines/tax re-payments intact.
Most everyone goes... yeah, the convictions stand, he pays the fines, and it's not like Hunter Biden is going to practice law anymore... and who among us hasn't wanted to avoid paying taxes? And of course everyone would prevent their son from going to prison, if he pays the fines and taxes. Aw, Biden is so cute.
The 11-yrs of crimes he 'may' have committed or been party to? That's just begging the question, besides not paying taxes on the $Ms he received, are we really confident those $M were legally gotten? Did he fill out all of his Foreign Lobbying forms? Seems a lot of folks forget to register as Foreign Lobbyists when funds start landing from abroad.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/2/2024”
Presumably to make their youngs marry and make babies. Or corruption. Or both.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
I think the 'news gathering' portion is also changing, and is ripe for more change.
While it always relied on contractors to a certain extent; I think it's now closer to 90% contractors and the bigger problem right now is that NYT and other news agencies are 'sourcing' the gathering to people with agendas that they either endorse, decode, or don't catch.
But once you're not actually putting Wolfe Blitzer's boots on the ground and are instead relying on NGO's to provide those boots, then it's a matter of screening and money.
We're already seeing close collaboration between the Parties and their Network(s) of choice... there's nothing to stop better 'vertical integration' of gathering, reporting, opining and direct political messaging as just another cost of running campaigns.
Might be slightly easier in an Internet based National news framework -- no need to run Decatur to Syracuse to Waco news desks.
"
I think we're just returning to broad form advocacy journalism that was the norm before the post-war consensus.
Every outlet will have it's faction; some will be artful and well crafted, others just plain yellow journalism.
It was the pretending that neutrality was still the norm that has been disabused entirely. The interesting question to me is the hour of it's death. It obviously starts with FOX, but when did the virus kill the host? 2012? 2020? Not sure, honestly. But I think it's dead.
"
I thought he might commute the sentence then issue a broad pardon...
It's complicated because it was the Biden DOJ that eventually secured the indictment and conviction of really egregious Tax Evasion -- like not even fudging, just not paying any taxes on $Ms in 2016, 17, 18 & 19.
I think it's pretty clear that the DOJ attempted to do something like that with their plea deal: almost commuting the sentence with a sort of 'pocket pardon' on the back-end. But that got upended by a judge who questioned the terms forcing the DOJ to say there *wasn't* immunity which HB then rejected.
It's not really a Trump thing.
I mean, I'm hearing rumblings that he's now open to questioning without access to the 5th -- but I'm not exactly sure how that would work. What it might could do is open him up to a *future* crime of lying under oath - assuming the FBI has just enough to catch him in some 'truths' that work at cross purposes.
TLDR: Probably should have commuted the specific convictions and stopped there ... the decade long blanket pardon may be a gift too far.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/25/2024”
The situation now is the same as it was before the election. There's a body of work and an understanding by the electorate of what the Democratic party stands for.
Going silent on a few topics doesn't change perceptions nor signal a new direction.
Silence in this situation doesn't signal change; and that's fine if there no intention to change. But I'd not act surprised if silence continues to imply consent for folks who wonder if the silence should actually imply change.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
Only surprised that he did it so early; was expecting it as one of the many that will be signed Jan 19th. I guess it had to do with the upcoming sentencings. And maybe Christmas.
It's not an everything-burger, but it's not a nothing-burger... it's a something-burger that just muddies the waters when Trump blanket pardons his family and then himself. That's the thing about a pardon: it's a gift wholly in the power of the President. There's no (necessary) pretext of justice or process or meaningful criteria; simply a gift of the Head of State. The only recourse is to impeach the President for applying his Presidential Powers thus. That's a check of sorts, but an ex post facto check. Which is why Jan 19 is such a busy day, ordinarily.
The escalation, if there is one, is if Biden pardons a bunch of Govt. folks to 'protect' them from Trump; it's a challenging iteration problem. If you pre-emptively pardon Govt folks for fear of a event that hasn't happened for crimes they supposedly haven't committed, well, I think you've just ushed in a new norm. And that norm sort of immanentizes the thing you were afraid was going to happen: Govt employees acting with presumed future immunity.
Now, I suspect that Biden will *not* do this since most of these calls are from the irrational Left and Biden's instincts are usually stolid when it comes to institutions... but that's what I'd watch for. Else Hunter's pardon is just the new normal for family, a +1 to the Billy Carter precedent.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Thanksgiving in Iceland”
Sounds like fun; does the B&B have a fireplace? Is there snow in Iceland (one hopes)? It's good to have family, but better to have a few friends and extras at the table.
"
Brisket is a favorite of ours for Thanksgiving... we chuckle when we see recipes that say 2-3 hrs cooking time. We budget about 6 hrs... cooktime for braising recipes is like garlic ... they always understate the right number.
"
On Weds I got our first deer; on the plus side fresh venison tenderloin for Thanksgiving; on the negative side, had to breakdown and butcher an entire deer the Weds before thanksgiving. Got it done and even managed to make one of the three side dishes I was hoping to make on Weds. Priorities.
We had all the kids home for dinner, less the middle son who is abroad on a walkabout, but plus the fiance to eldest daughter... so 6 kids of one stripe or another. Ate the afore mentioned venison and dry brined Turkey. We don't usually do turkey, but got a small 10 pounder and treated it like chicken. Dry brining is much better (IMO) than wet brining... the meat was moist but firmer and had a slight 'ham cured' background note. Served with a Cotes de Nuit Burgundy and an Oregon Pinot so family could build-up their comparative palates.
Treating today like a Sunday knowing that I get a bonus Sunday in two days.
"
It is our Secular Religious Holiday. But for Black Friday we almost have a universal multi-day feast.
"
Bring the Dumpster to you!
https://dumpsterdudez.com/
They even have small sizes for your girlie sized suburban needs. Lady Marchmaine mentioned that she wanted a dumpster for her last birthday (I have it in writing) and was surprised that we could get one in 2-days.
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
It's true that Trump only won by approx 1.5%, but the interesting thing to me is that Biden won by 4.5% so the *swing* is really significant ... plus winning the popular vote upended a growing narrative that the Dems were 'assured' 2%-3% popular vote win and needed at least that just to offset the EC 'bias'.
That's a genuinely big swing that wasn't anticipated.
On “Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland”
Heh, yeah there have always been bespoke tailors that offer a full experience; I should have qualified that this was a store at a mall.
Like, you could just walk in with your cinnabon and buy a suit... but the experience would still be integrated with your advisor providing end-to-end service via the hand-held device.
The hybrid-online-in-person experience is what made it different from, say, Men's Warehouse.
"
It's more of an 'experience'. The old way was a sales-guy talking about the fabric/color/style and then you went back to the shabby (ethnic) tailor who took lots of measurements and asked how big of a break you wanted in the trouser.
Now imagine the Tailor is impeccably dressed, offers you coffee, and wants to understand your vibe before bringing you some options to consider. And, while you are trying on the suit *he* thinks is the right suit, he starts pinning it and making recommendations on the alterations. But your choice, of course... you could try on the *other* suits that don't look as good on you... up to you, really.
Basically I bought the Grey Suit he brought out after the vibe check -- theoretically to test the fitting/size he needed to see if the Green suit was available.
As a Tech Sales guy, I appreciated that he had mastered some important 'technical' aspects of design and tailoring/fit and still managed the relationship part as well. But that's why it was more of an 'experience' than a transaction.
But, if you are too self-conscious or didn't develop rapport with your advisor, it would be a much worse experience.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn't prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is self-binding, but breaking the convention does not prohibit other nations from acting.
But to your main point; Russia may *also* demonstrate that the nukes themselves work in some fashion. But honestly, it's much more important to demonstrate that the delivery mechanisms work than the nukes themselves.
Gambling that the nukes are all duds? That's just a bad gamble if the delivery systems work.
On “Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland”
Yeah, it turns out that the dark green suit I was interested in was 'last year's' style and all they had left were starving dickensian waif sizes. But, I'm pleased to note that Lady Marchmaine relented and agreed that the color, fabric and styling would've been more than acceptable.
I refrained from commenting to my very stylish suit advisor that he had no idea how many 'style seasons' my other suits usually last.
So, in fact, I did end up with a Grey suit... but it's got a little 'zip' to it and isn't *just* a grey suit if you know what I mean. It's also cut and stitched in the Italian fashion. And, after a little tailoring to account for my...erm...age and wisdom, it should actually hang well. Added a custom waistcoat of the same fabric to push it over the top.
The shopping experience was very millenial/zoomer ... hybrid online handheld device to search fabric, inventory, options and to build the suit; with sizing/tailoring on-the-spot by the advisor; and finally the sale was completed by the advisor on the device. No tailors, managers, or checkout process... just you and your advisor. Though, every once in a while an 'expert advisor' would swing by to review the fit and make tailoring recommendations... but that's probably because I was an edge case from their usual (fit) 25-45 demographic.
"
Sounds awesome (again) ... going to the thermal electric site? That sounded cool.
I have to go to the Big Suburbs to get a new suit for Oldest Daughter's wedding; I have my eye on a Dark Dark Green (practically charcoal) Italian suit with a double breasted waistcoat. But I'm being shadowed by Lady Marchmaine under orders (I suspect) of the bride. So I'll probably end up with a boring Grey suit.
We have to make an appointment, so I'm sure the experience will be awkward for everyone involved; my personal Suit guy (dude?) has already texted me asking what I'm looking for. I don't know the words I'm supposed to use, other than, 'A new suit' -- so I'm just going to let my silence heighten the experience.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
I could see it as a statement: "In case you're wondering if our intermediate and long-range Nuclear deterrent still functions in post-Soviet Russia..."
On “The Mandate That Wasn’t”
I'm curious to see if he takes his seat in the next congress... I'd assume yes, but seeing some armchair House Rules mongering that he resigned from both current and future congresses.
Maybe he figured he was going to get Santos'ed so he's indifferent... but if not, would be the first of many who's careers Trump will end.
Rubio up next.
"
"Hey, Vincent, don't you see? That sh*t don't matter. You're judging this sh*t the wrong way. I mean, it could be that God stopped the bullets, or He changed Coke to Pepsi, He found my f***ing car keys. You don't judge sh*t like this based on merit. Now, whether or not what we experienced was an "according to Hoyle" miracle is insignificant. What is significant is that I felt the touch of God. God got involved."
[Joke aside, I think the unprepared kid on the roof missed. Missed close, but missed all the same]
"
I should just stick to 280 characters, nay 140.
But all this whitespace with and expandable box? Too tempting.
"
Yeah, but as I said on Twitter... I'm not sure Trump is qualified to exploit a Trump victory at the polls.
He might buckle down and focus on shepherding legacy defining legislation through congress; or he might appoint Matt Gaetz and just f*ck around with the DOJ for two years. Hard to say, really.
"
Mandate is as mandate does.
The modern Federal machine has 1-yr to execute whatever their mandate heart desires... and which can muster 60-votes in the Senate.
...or can be maneuvered through a reconciliation bill on straight party-line votes.
...or is no longer subject to the filibuster.
...or nukes the filibuster.
...or -- and this is the real meaning of a mandate -- voting against the proposed 'Mandate Legislation' will cause you to lose your next election because the Mandate Party will take their mandate for this legislation and use it for that.
Clearly the Republicans have a reconciliation bill level of mandate.
It could, however, attempt to leverage an 'Immigration Mandate' because many Dems campaigned on Immigration and the Dems are concerned about Immigration at the polls ... so Trump could position a Trump inflected Migration Bill that needs the support of 7 senators to pass. It all depends on whether there are 7 Senators who are vulnerable to the *Immigration Mandate*... or Dem leadership that is worried about campaigning against Immigration Reform and pressures for a general consensus bill. But make no mistake, it will be a general consensus bill of Trump's influence, not the weak tea that was served prior to the election.
I never have any confidence that Trump and his team can execute on these sorts of things... but if he does, that's what he can accomplish before 2026 as part of a 'Mandate' strategy.
That, and I assume they can just extend the TCJA for 4 (8?) years via reconciliation? In some ways it's ironic that Trump wanted the TCJA to expire on his successor's watch, but now that he's the successor, he can probably just extend it 4 or 8 more years (depending on the limits of Reconciliation).
On “How Republicans Can Save Trump’s Presidency”
What?
Biden was CiC during the Evacuation; he's the one who had primary responsibility for oversight for that specific operation. He ordered it, the Generals and their Staffs planned and executed it. It is his role to see to it that operational failures are reviewed and accountability maintained.
The outcome is accountability in the US Military; it's genuinely an important outcome that Sr. Officers in charge of Military operations are held accountable for the success or failure of missions. It's also a bedrock principle of the Officer Corps itself.
One could, perhaps, make a broader argument that the Flag Officers in all branches have increasingly been exempted from this level of accountability; and that this represents a sort of regulatory capture of DoD, and I'd certainly be sympathetic to that... but that just means that Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump should acknowledge this 'problem' and take more and more timely corrective actions.
Afghanistan was particularly egregious; and, Biden didn't do his duty. Ironically, he ended up taking all the heat for it, and that moment was the start of the precipitous decline in his approvals.
I'd even go so far as to say, it would have been to his advantage to own the decision to withdraw, but acknowledge that the operation was botched, and hold the Sr. Staff accountable. It would have demonstrated his own competence and leadership, plus make sure that the Civilian Commander in Chief takes responsibility for the order, but the military takes responsibility for the execution.