Sure, whatever notional 'plans' were being concocted were obviously pre-empted by Biden's immediate and unexpected endorsement.
But from a simple logistics point of view, it is highly unlikely a state-by-state re-do was going to happen. Maybe a cool 'dancing with the stars' online straw poll or something -- purely to inform the 'judges' at the convention. Or some such.
It's not the laptop. I'd worry about the 2019 New Yorker Magazine article attempting to inoculate us about Biden younger.
Plus the digging of the house oversight committee... plus the banking trails.
It's one thing to prove tit-for-tat bribery, but it's much easier to nail someone for banking $Ms from foreign entities and failing to fill out the proper forms. Ask Flynn, Manafort, etc. etc.
But, now that he's dispensed from filling out the forms, I guess people are free to ask probing questions under oath about his various LLC's 'laundering' money from CCCP, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, etc.
There's even a chance it's all legit. I mean, NYMag didn't really think so, but he was reforming his life and all that...
I don't think the plan was to re-do the primaries state by state, but to have a sort of speed-dating debate/rebuttal followed by the convention delegates exercising their pre-existing duties subject to the by-laws of the Democratic party.
Not exactly a smoke filled room, more like an airy convention scented room with bad coffee, spotty wifi, and snacks.
We may want to revisit the Insurrection Act(s). They offer pretty broad powers, so long as the President doth "by proclamation, immediately order the insurgents to disperse and retire peaceably to their abodes within a limited time."
Serious question, does anyone know how S. Korean government works with regards 'checks and balances'?
That is, declaring an 'Emergency' to invoke what I assume are constitutional powers should have some grounding in Emergency status that might be challenged... somewhere?
I think what's coalescing is confusion over the 11-yr blanket pardon.
That is, when I did a little research and found out that Pres. Carter(!) commuted G. Gordon Liddy's sentence to basically time-served plus the $40k fine; there seemed to be a pretty plausible defense for commuting Hunter's sentence and leaving the fines/tax re-payments intact.
Most everyone goes... yeah, the convictions stand, he pays the fines, and it's not like Hunter Biden is going to practice law anymore... and who among us hasn't wanted to avoid paying taxes? And of course everyone would prevent their son from going to prison, if he pays the fines and taxes. Aw, Biden is so cute.
The 11-yrs of crimes he 'may' have committed or been party to? That's just begging the question, besides not paying taxes on the $Ms he received, are we really confident those $M were legally gotten? Did he fill out all of his Foreign Lobbying forms? Seems a lot of folks forget to register as Foreign Lobbyists when funds start landing from abroad.
I think the 'news gathering' portion is also changing, and is ripe for more change.
While it always relied on contractors to a certain extent; I think it's now closer to 90% contractors and the bigger problem right now is that NYT and other news agencies are 'sourcing' the gathering to people with agendas that they either endorse, decode, or don't catch.
But once you're not actually putting Wolfe Blitzer's boots on the ground and are instead relying on NGO's to provide those boots, then it's a matter of screening and money.
We're already seeing close collaboration between the Parties and their Network(s) of choice... there's nothing to stop better 'vertical integration' of gathering, reporting, opining and direct political messaging as just another cost of running campaigns.
Might be slightly easier in an Internet based National news framework -- no need to run Decatur to Syracuse to Waco news desks.
I think we're just returning to broad form advocacy journalism that was the norm before the post-war consensus.
Every outlet will have it's faction; some will be artful and well crafted, others just plain yellow journalism.
It was the pretending that neutrality was still the norm that has been disabused entirely. The interesting question to me is the hour of it's death. It obviously starts with FOX, but when did the virus kill the host? 2012? 2020? Not sure, honestly. But I think it's dead.
I thought he might commute the sentence then issue a broad pardon...
It's complicated because it was the Biden DOJ that eventually secured the indictment and conviction of really egregious Tax Evasion -- like not even fudging, just not paying any taxes on $Ms in 2016, 17, 18 & 19.
I think it's pretty clear that the DOJ attempted to do something like that with their plea deal: almost commuting the sentence with a sort of 'pocket pardon' on the back-end. But that got upended by a judge who questioned the terms forcing the DOJ to say there *wasn't* immunity which HB then rejected.
It's not really a Trump thing.
I mean, I'm hearing rumblings that he's now open to questioning without access to the 5th -- but I'm not exactly sure how that would work. What it might could do is open him up to a *future* crime of lying under oath - assuming the FBI has just enough to catch him in some 'truths' that work at cross purposes.
TLDR: Probably should have commuted the specific convictions and stopped there ... the decade long blanket pardon may be a gift too far.
The situation now is the same as it was before the election. There's a body of work and an understanding by the electorate of what the Democratic party stands for.
Going silent on a few topics doesn't change perceptions nor signal a new direction.
Silence in this situation doesn't signal change; and that's fine if there no intention to change. But I'd not act surprised if silence continues to imply consent for folks who wonder if the silence should actually imply change.
Only surprised that he did it so early; was expecting it as one of the many that will be signed Jan 19th. I guess it had to do with the upcoming sentencings. And maybe Christmas.
It's not an everything-burger, but it's not a nothing-burger... it's a something-burger that just muddies the waters when Trump blanket pardons his family and then himself. That's the thing about a pardon: it's a gift wholly in the power of the President. There's no (necessary) pretext of justice or process or meaningful criteria; simply a gift of the Head of State. The only recourse is to impeach the President for applying his Presidential Powers thus. That's a check of sorts, but an ex post facto check. Which is why Jan 19 is such a busy day, ordinarily.
The escalation, if there is one, is if Biden pardons a bunch of Govt. folks to 'protect' them from Trump; it's a challenging iteration problem. If you pre-emptively pardon Govt folks for fear of a event that hasn't happened for crimes they supposedly haven't committed, well, I think you've just ushed in a new norm. And that norm sort of immanentizes the thing you were afraid was going to happen: Govt employees acting with presumed future immunity.
Now, I suspect that Biden will *not* do this since most of these calls are from the irrational Left and Biden's instincts are usually stolid when it comes to institutions... but that's what I'd watch for. Else Hunter's pardon is just the new normal for family, a +1 to the Billy Carter precedent.
Sounds like fun; does the B&B have a fireplace? Is there snow in Iceland (one hopes)? It's good to have family, but better to have a few friends and extras at the table.
Brisket is a favorite of ours for Thanksgiving... we chuckle when we see recipes that say 2-3 hrs cooking time. We budget about 6 hrs... cooktime for braising recipes is like garlic ... they always understate the right number.
On Weds I got our first deer; on the plus side fresh venison tenderloin for Thanksgiving; on the negative side, had to breakdown and butcher an entire deer the Weds before thanksgiving. Got it done and even managed to make one of the three side dishes I was hoping to make on Weds. Priorities.
We had all the kids home for dinner, less the middle son who is abroad on a walkabout, but plus the fiance to eldest daughter... so 6 kids of one stripe or another. Ate the afore mentioned venison and dry brined Turkey. We don't usually do turkey, but got a small 10 pounder and treated it like chicken. Dry brining is much better (IMO) than wet brining... the meat was moist but firmer and had a slight 'ham cured' background note. Served with a Cotes de Nuit Burgundy and an Oregon Pinot so family could build-up their comparative palates.
Treating today like a Sunday knowing that I get a bonus Sunday in two days.
They even have small sizes for your girlie sized suburban needs. Lady Marchmaine mentioned that she wanted a dumpster for her last birthday (I have it in writing) and was surprised that we could get one in 2-days.
It's true that Trump only won by approx 1.5%, but the interesting thing to me is that Biden won by 4.5% so the *swing* is really significant ... plus winning the popular vote upended a growing narrative that the Dems were 'assured' 2%-3% popular vote win and needed at least that just to offset the EC 'bias'.
That's a genuinely big swing that wasn't anticipated.
Heh, yeah there have always been bespoke tailors that offer a full experience; I should have qualified that this was a store at a mall.
Like, you could just walk in with your cinnabon and buy a suit... but the experience would still be integrated with your advisor providing end-to-end service via the hand-held device.
The hybrid-online-in-person experience is what made it different from, say, Men's Warehouse.
It's more of an 'experience'. The old way was a sales-guy talking about the fabric/color/style and then you went back to the shabby (ethnic) tailor who took lots of measurements and asked how big of a break you wanted in the trouser.
Now imagine the Tailor is impeccably dressed, offers you coffee, and wants to understand your vibe before bringing you some options to consider. And, while you are trying on the suit *he* thinks is the right suit, he starts pinning it and making recommendations on the alterations. But your choice, of course... you could try on the *other* suits that don't look as good on you... up to you, really.
Basically I bought the Grey Suit he brought out after the vibe check -- theoretically to test the fitting/size he needed to see if the Green suit was available.
As a Tech Sales guy, I appreciated that he had mastered some important 'technical' aspects of design and tailoring/fit and still managed the relationship part as well. But that's why it was more of an 'experience' than a transaction.
But, if you are too self-conscious or didn't develop rapport with your advisor, it would be a much worse experience.
Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn't prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is self-binding, but breaking the convention does not prohibit other nations from acting.
But to your main point; Russia may *also* demonstrate that the nukes themselves work in some fashion. But honestly, it's much more important to demonstrate that the delivery mechanisms work than the nukes themselves.
Gambling that the nukes are all duds? That's just a bad gamble if the delivery systems work.
Yeah, it turns out that the dark green suit I was interested in was 'last year's' style and all they had left were starving dickensian waif sizes. But, I'm pleased to note that Lady Marchmaine relented and agreed that the color, fabric and styling would've been more than acceptable.
I refrained from commenting to my very stylish suit advisor that he had no idea how many 'style seasons' my other suits usually last.
So, in fact, I did end up with a Grey suit... but it's got a little 'zip' to it and isn't *just* a grey suit if you know what I mean. It's also cut and stitched in the Italian fashion. And, after a little tailoring to account for my...erm...age and wisdom, it should actually hang well. Added a custom waistcoat of the same fabric to push it over the top.
The shopping experience was very millenial/zoomer ... hybrid online handheld device to search fabric, inventory, options and to build the suit; with sizing/tailoring on-the-spot by the advisor; and finally the sale was completed by the advisor on the device. No tailors, managers, or checkout process... just you and your advisor. Though, every once in a while an 'expert advisor' would swing by to review the fit and make tailoring recommendations... but that's probably because I was an edge case from their usual (fit) 25-45 demographic.
Sounds awesome (again) ... going to the thermal electric site? That sounded cool.
I have to go to the Big Suburbs to get a new suit for Oldest Daughter's wedding; I have my eye on a Dark Dark Green (practically charcoal) Italian suit with a double breasted waistcoat. But I'm being shadowed by Lady Marchmaine under orders (I suspect) of the bride. So I'll probably end up with a boring Grey suit.
We have to make an appointment, so I'm sure the experience will be awkward for everyone involved; my personal Suit guy (dude?) has already texted me asking what I'm looking for. I don't know the words I'm supposed to use, other than, 'A new suit' -- so I'm just going to let my silence heighten the experience.
On “From The Los Angeles Times: Schiff calls on Biden to drop out, citing ‘serious concerns’ he can’t win”
Heh, since we're revisiting (12/3/24)... Harris tallied : 74,772,514 votes.
It was not enough.
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
That's like only 80 'Call her Daddy' offsite interviews.
"
Sure, whatever notional 'plans' were being concocted were obviously pre-empted by Biden's immediate and unexpected endorsement.
But from a simple logistics point of view, it is highly unlikely a state-by-state re-do was going to happen. Maybe a cool 'dancing with the stars' online straw poll or something -- purely to inform the 'judges' at the convention. Or some such.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
It's not the laptop. I'd worry about the 2019 New Yorker Magazine article attempting to inoculate us about Biden younger.
Plus the digging of the house oversight committee... plus the banking trails.
It's one thing to prove tit-for-tat bribery, but it's much easier to nail someone for banking $Ms from foreign entities and failing to fill out the proper forms. Ask Flynn, Manafort, etc. etc.
But, now that he's dispensed from filling out the forms, I guess people are free to ask probing questions under oath about his various LLC's 'laundering' money from CCCP, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, etc.
There's even a chance it's all legit. I mean, NYMag didn't really think so, but he was reforming his life and all that...
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
I don't think the plan was to re-do the primaries state by state, but to have a sort of speed-dating debate/rebuttal followed by the convention delegates exercising their pre-existing duties subject to the by-laws of the Democratic party.
Not exactly a smoke filled room, more like an airy convention scented room with bad coffee, spotty wifi, and snacks.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/2/2024”
We may want to revisit the Insurrection Act(s). They offer pretty broad powers, so long as the President doth "by proclamation, immediately order the insurgents to disperse and retire peaceably to their abodes within a limited time."
"
Serious question, does anyone know how S. Korean government works with regards 'checks and balances'?
That is, declaring an 'Emergency' to invoke what I assume are constitutional powers should have some grounding in Emergency status that might be challenged... somewhere?
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
I think what's coalescing is confusion over the 11-yr blanket pardon.
That is, when I did a little research and found out that Pres. Carter(!) commuted G. Gordon Liddy's sentence to basically time-served plus the $40k fine; there seemed to be a pretty plausible defense for commuting Hunter's sentence and leaving the fines/tax re-payments intact.
Most everyone goes... yeah, the convictions stand, he pays the fines, and it's not like Hunter Biden is going to practice law anymore... and who among us hasn't wanted to avoid paying taxes? And of course everyone would prevent their son from going to prison, if he pays the fines and taxes. Aw, Biden is so cute.
The 11-yrs of crimes he 'may' have committed or been party to? That's just begging the question, besides not paying taxes on the $Ms he received, are we really confident those $M were legally gotten? Did he fill out all of his Foreign Lobbying forms? Seems a lot of folks forget to register as Foreign Lobbyists when funds start landing from abroad.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/2/2024”
Presumably to make their youngs marry and make babies. Or corruption. Or both.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
I think the 'news gathering' portion is also changing, and is ripe for more change.
While it always relied on contractors to a certain extent; I think it's now closer to 90% contractors and the bigger problem right now is that NYT and other news agencies are 'sourcing' the gathering to people with agendas that they either endorse, decode, or don't catch.
But once you're not actually putting Wolfe Blitzer's boots on the ground and are instead relying on NGO's to provide those boots, then it's a matter of screening and money.
We're already seeing close collaboration between the Parties and their Network(s) of choice... there's nothing to stop better 'vertical integration' of gathering, reporting, opining and direct political messaging as just another cost of running campaigns.
Might be slightly easier in an Internet based National news framework -- no need to run Decatur to Syracuse to Waco news desks.
"
I think we're just returning to broad form advocacy journalism that was the norm before the post-war consensus.
Every outlet will have it's faction; some will be artful and well crafted, others just plain yellow journalism.
It was the pretending that neutrality was still the norm that has been disabused entirely. The interesting question to me is the hour of it's death. It obviously starts with FOX, but when did the virus kill the host? 2012? 2020? Not sure, honestly. But I think it's dead.
"
I thought he might commute the sentence then issue a broad pardon...
It's complicated because it was the Biden DOJ that eventually secured the indictment and conviction of really egregious Tax Evasion -- like not even fudging, just not paying any taxes on $Ms in 2016, 17, 18 & 19.
I think it's pretty clear that the DOJ attempted to do something like that with their plea deal: almost commuting the sentence with a sort of 'pocket pardon' on the back-end. But that got upended by a judge who questioned the terms forcing the DOJ to say there *wasn't* immunity which HB then rejected.
It's not really a Trump thing.
I mean, I'm hearing rumblings that he's now open to questioning without access to the 5th -- but I'm not exactly sure how that would work. What it might could do is open him up to a *future* crime of lying under oath - assuming the FBI has just enough to catch him in some 'truths' that work at cross purposes.
TLDR: Probably should have commuted the specific convictions and stopped there ... the decade long blanket pardon may be a gift too far.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/25/2024”
The situation now is the same as it was before the election. There's a body of work and an understanding by the electorate of what the Democratic party stands for.
Going silent on a few topics doesn't change perceptions nor signal a new direction.
Silence in this situation doesn't signal change; and that's fine if there no intention to change. But I'd not act surprised if silence continues to imply consent for folks who wonder if the silence should actually imply change.
On “Joe Biden Pardons Local Man”
Only surprised that he did it so early; was expecting it as one of the many that will be signed Jan 19th. I guess it had to do with the upcoming sentencings. And maybe Christmas.
It's not an everything-burger, but it's not a nothing-burger... it's a something-burger that just muddies the waters when Trump blanket pardons his family and then himself. That's the thing about a pardon: it's a gift wholly in the power of the President. There's no (necessary) pretext of justice or process or meaningful criteria; simply a gift of the Head of State. The only recourse is to impeach the President for applying his Presidential Powers thus. That's a check of sorts, but an ex post facto check. Which is why Jan 19 is such a busy day, ordinarily.
The escalation, if there is one, is if Biden pardons a bunch of Govt. folks to 'protect' them from Trump; it's a challenging iteration problem. If you pre-emptively pardon Govt folks for fear of a event that hasn't happened for crimes they supposedly haven't committed, well, I think you've just ushed in a new norm. And that norm sort of immanentizes the thing you were afraid was going to happen: Govt employees acting with presumed future immunity.
Now, I suspect that Biden will *not* do this since most of these calls are from the irrational Left and Biden's instincts are usually stolid when it comes to institutions... but that's what I'd watch for. Else Hunter's pardon is just the new normal for family, a +1 to the Billy Carter precedent.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Thanksgiving in Iceland”
Sounds like fun; does the B&B have a fireplace? Is there snow in Iceland (one hopes)? It's good to have family, but better to have a few friends and extras at the table.
"
Brisket is a favorite of ours for Thanksgiving... we chuckle when we see recipes that say 2-3 hrs cooking time. We budget about 6 hrs... cooktime for braising recipes is like garlic ... they always understate the right number.
"
On Weds I got our first deer; on the plus side fresh venison tenderloin for Thanksgiving; on the negative side, had to breakdown and butcher an entire deer the Weds before thanksgiving. Got it done and even managed to make one of the three side dishes I was hoping to make on Weds. Priorities.
We had all the kids home for dinner, less the middle son who is abroad on a walkabout, but plus the fiance to eldest daughter... so 6 kids of one stripe or another. Ate the afore mentioned venison and dry brined Turkey. We don't usually do turkey, but got a small 10 pounder and treated it like chicken. Dry brining is much better (IMO) than wet brining... the meat was moist but firmer and had a slight 'ham cured' background note. Served with a Cotes de Nuit Burgundy and an Oregon Pinot so family could build-up their comparative palates.
Treating today like a Sunday knowing that I get a bonus Sunday in two days.
"
It is our Secular Religious Holiday. But for Black Friday we almost have a universal multi-day feast.
"
Bring the Dumpster to you!
https://dumpsterdudez.com/
They even have small sizes for your girlie sized suburban needs. Lady Marchmaine mentioned that she wanted a dumpster for her last birthday (I have it in writing) and was surprised that we could get one in 2-days.
On “Huffpo reports that Harris internals *NEVER* had her ahead.”
It's true that Trump only won by approx 1.5%, but the interesting thing to me is that Biden won by 4.5% so the *swing* is really significant ... plus winning the popular vote upended a growing narrative that the Dems were 'assured' 2%-3% popular vote win and needed at least that just to offset the EC 'bias'.
That's a genuinely big swing that wasn't anticipated.
On “Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland”
Heh, yeah there have always been bespoke tailors that offer a full experience; I should have qualified that this was a store at a mall.
Like, you could just walk in with your cinnabon and buy a suit... but the experience would still be integrated with your advisor providing end-to-end service via the hand-held device.
The hybrid-online-in-person experience is what made it different from, say, Men's Warehouse.
"
It's more of an 'experience'. The old way was a sales-guy talking about the fabric/color/style and then you went back to the shabby (ethnic) tailor who took lots of measurements and asked how big of a break you wanted in the trouser.
Now imagine the Tailor is impeccably dressed, offers you coffee, and wants to understand your vibe before bringing you some options to consider. And, while you are trying on the suit *he* thinks is the right suit, he starts pinning it and making recommendations on the alterations. But your choice, of course... you could try on the *other* suits that don't look as good on you... up to you, really.
Basically I bought the Grey Suit he brought out after the vibe check -- theoretically to test the fitting/size he needed to see if the Green suit was available.
As a Tech Sales guy, I appreciated that he had mastered some important 'technical' aspects of design and tailoring/fit and still managed the relationship part as well. But that's why it was more of an 'experience' than a transaction.
But, if you are too self-conscious or didn't develop rapport with your advisor, it would be a much worse experience.
On “Open Mic for the week of 11/18/2024”
Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn't prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is self-binding, but breaking the convention does not prohibit other nations from acting.
But to your main point; Russia may *also* demonstrate that the nukes themselves work in some fashion. But honestly, it's much more important to demonstrate that the delivery mechanisms work than the nukes themselves.
Gambling that the nukes are all duds? That's just a bad gamble if the delivery systems work.
On “Weekend Plans Post: On a Plane to Iceland”
Yeah, it turns out that the dark green suit I was interested in was 'last year's' style and all they had left were starving dickensian waif sizes. But, I'm pleased to note that Lady Marchmaine relented and agreed that the color, fabric and styling would've been more than acceptable.
I refrained from commenting to my very stylish suit advisor that he had no idea how many 'style seasons' my other suits usually last.
So, in fact, I did end up with a Grey suit... but it's got a little 'zip' to it and isn't *just* a grey suit if you know what I mean. It's also cut and stitched in the Italian fashion. And, after a little tailoring to account for my...erm...age and wisdom, it should actually hang well. Added a custom waistcoat of the same fabric to push it over the top.
The shopping experience was very millenial/zoomer ... hybrid online handheld device to search fabric, inventory, options and to build the suit; with sizing/tailoring on-the-spot by the advisor; and finally the sale was completed by the advisor on the device. No tailors, managers, or checkout process... just you and your advisor. Though, every once in a while an 'expert advisor' would swing by to review the fit and make tailoring recommendations... but that's probably because I was an edge case from their usual (fit) 25-45 demographic.
"
Sounds awesome (again) ... going to the thermal electric site? That sounded cool.
I have to go to the Big Suburbs to get a new suit for Oldest Daughter's wedding; I have my eye on a Dark Dark Green (practically charcoal) Italian suit with a double breasted waistcoat. But I'm being shadowed by Lady Marchmaine under orders (I suspect) of the bride. So I'll probably end up with a boring Grey suit.
We have to make an appointment, so I'm sure the experience will be awkward for everyone involved; my personal Suit guy (dude?) has already texted me asking what I'm looking for. I don't know the words I'm supposed to use, other than, 'A new suit' -- so I'm just going to let my silence heighten the experience.