Sure, we're living through a sort of congressional torpor that has multi-faceted causes. I don't think the H1B issue will break us out of that... it'll just be forgotten with the next thing.
But, Europe's nosedive isn't from populism, it is from the liberal apparatus that was unable to form a coherent position on immigration at all. Populism in Europe is a response to the nosedive; maybe not a good response, but a response nonetheless.
The US is cruising on the empire's global reserve currency... our challenge is not to blow it.
I went back to Last Epoch after giving POE 2 some serious play-time. It's just not fun.
My son who also pushed through stopped playing too. We talked about what they've lost from POE1 and our working theory is that the Dev team is playing the game 'backwards'. That is, they start with the assumption that we're at end-game maps and project backwards to a game that they didn't build. Another way to put it is this: if you make the *journey* to your endgame build a dick-punch... then there *has* to be fun pay-offs along the way. You have to *enjoy* playing a build that has no end-game synergy while fighting bosses that are overly tuned and don't drop rewarding loot. What made POE1 work is that the end-game progression became increasingly impossible so that people who like being punched in the nether regions could get that rush... while normal people could push a ceiling and see if the build they had was worth 'investing' in further... or just start another concept on an alt. The journey from concept to end-game was fun at each stage of power growth... and end-game provided a sort of endless ladder you could climb or just farm for materials for your next build. Win-Win.
What they are *really* missing is that all ARPGs are first Pimp My Build games which are augmented by Loot... and if you can't get to your build with an experience that makes you want to log-in to get to your end-game build... then you potentially have very serious issues that you won't see until after the initial adrenaline rush of new-game-itis.
Some of this is fixable with spreadsheet adjustments; but, some of the bigger issues require tossing parts of The Vision (TM) into the bin. I've started to develop a loathing for the lead Game Designer that I haven't felt in 25-yrs since back in the early MMO days.
Increase the floor, have companies bid on slots... and then let the H1B recipient change jobs/industries whenever they want.
Basically it changes the system/incentives from finding workers for fewer $ who have fewer options to companies/industries bidding on expanding the talent pool without any guaranty that they will directly benefit. The visa itself can have a ramping 1-, 2-, 3-year term contingent upon employment. It becomes a high-skilled worker immigration application process that employers fund. Heck, if the need is great enough, the auction for slots could fund job training programs!
The problem with laws that set-up systems is that the systems become the thing that governs what they do, not the laws which specified intent. Plus... add sclerotic oversite and updating, and pretty quickly you have a 'system' that has incentives that the constituents then lobby *not* to change so as to exploit the growing inefficiencies.
Sometime in January 2025... 'Yes Your Holiness, I was deeply moved by your teachings and my conscience moved me to act as far as my Interns would permit.'
Carefully calculated to apply no general principal nor satisfy any particular good nor mollify any constituency at all. The Biden Presidency in a nutshell.
This is my second Christmas with the new company... and the best thing ever is that our FY ends Jan 31.
So after 20+ years of trying to close EOY deals with CIO's in Switzerland and approvers approving between bumpers of eggnog at random times... I find that I have none of my bosses asking about that deal that I'm trying to close next month.
And I have absolutely no questions for Legal... So, Merry Christmas.
[somehow my boss still scheduled a 1:1 on Monday... but I refuse to believe it's real]
That's what's funny about the 'cite' dodge... the Election Loss is a cite. We're the audience and he didn't do this well is a cite. MattY and hundreds of people publicly commenting on Biden's diminished ability to drive his agenda is a cite.
You can link a White House 'rollup" of an OMB report to me and I'll read it!
But the question is whether there are things that the President does that can't be done by the OMB and Sr. Administration officials.
...and, making sure that the IRA is delivering and *everyone knows its delivering* is something the President does so that his party wins elections and keeps delivering.
... it also means handling scrutiny about whether the summary on a webpage is accurate and not just a thing put on a website by Sr. Administration officials.
Clearly this is how things work at the highest level.
However, the way that the Biden Administration lost control of the narrative and lost control of things like the Inflation Reduction Act Infrastructure Spending Bill had negative effects. First, it's not clear that we are getting a good ROI on the actual Infrastructure Investments and Second, if we are, or to whatever extent we are, the lack of oversight and ownership by Biden and his Admin is the sort of thing the President typically does.
So, I think it's fair to say that the American Public isn't really sure (i'm not sure the Govt. is sure) whether the IRA is spending it's $1T remit to any particular benefit other than contractors. That's a big Biden failure that I think is likely directly attributable to his decline and inability to own, manage and communicate his signature legislation. Presidents are still important to make sure that things get done and people are held (somewhat) accountable for consuming contracting $$$$$$ without delivering. The more $ the more important it is to own and manage.
Eh, I think the lessons learned from post-modernism is that owning the language is actually part of the political power game.
I think you know that, but we know that too... what's newish is that what used to be an academic power move (successfully) transitioned into politics and now is being challenged in ways it wasn't before.
The Left successfully stole a march for about two decades on the language/power axis... but I don't think it will be as uncontested moving forward.
We might not enjoy how it plays out ... but I don't think anyone will believe the 'nothing is happening here' story going forward.
We shouldn't have cried Gorilla as early as we did.
Trump's lost a step, is too old for office and shouldn't be President... but my hunch is that slipping as much as Biden will be more noticable for the 1) absence of Trump from the big stage, or 2) Trump won't GAF and it'll be like the Biden Debate every day until, 3) He gets knifed in the back Pardoned and feted as the best President Ever as he Golfs his way to Valhalla.
Yeah, well, that's my supposition anyway... not that Biden had completely lost it, but that he [Obama] knew he'd passed from aging to aged. I think the steeper decline happened post election.
The 2020 election was sooo weird with Covid and the organized Tuesday consolidation where the young folk all dropped out... not out of conviction, but, well, not sure really.
Not in a conspiratorial way, but in the back of my mind I always kinda wondered if Obama knew Joe was past peak as VP and why he would never get behind him before he was president.
Yes, you'd think. Both parties have plausible paths.
My counterpoint for consideration would be that the Dems still have quite a few orthodoxies that would need dismantling while Trump has already dismantled quite a few Republican orthodoxies. The post-Trump party is already deconstructed...
That doesn't mean R's will come up with a winning coalition/policy mix... but their iterations have fewer constraints (good or bad).
The coalition should include people who aren't anti-Trump but people for whom you could make a case that your presidency would be good for them.
She never really made a case, she tried to not make a case that she would be as Liberal as she was in 2019 by *not* saying anything that might imply that. But, she never made the affirmative case of what she'd do differently from 2019 Harris.
As a result the only person who beat Harris convincingly was 2019 Harris being broadcast relentlessly across the airwaves.
I heard some talk of concerns about The Left not voting for her... I think it's instructive that Trump took the concerns about the SoCons dropping him over his abortion stances and said f*uck it, who are they going to vote for instead? He wanted his coalition to include Biden/Harris voters.... and sonuvabidge if it doesn't.
Yes, it is extremely unsatisfying to realize that the proper alignment of ideas to party does not lead to electoral success but fitfully. Especially in a two party system.
The good news of not changing is that it may very well work in the next cycle. The bad news is that it will continue to remain an unreliable prediction until the next politician who carves up the previous assumptions into a better winning coalition.
I wouldn't say that the Left has 'lost control' of the culture making apparatus. It hasn't. I suspect, however, that the culture making apparatus was never as Left as the Left hoped. That said; the culture making apparatus mostly wants to make money more than it wants to re-make culture.
I try to restrain myself from saying 'the reason your party lost is...'
But I don't think it's necessarily wrong to say, 'you might want to consider additional reasons to the only one you're bringing up.' Like, in the spirit of fraternal help.
We have a Gala charity event on Saturday... not exactly the Met Gala, more of a local school gym Gala. But a Gala nonetheless. Or so we're told. Anyhow, one of those local events where all the adults in the community dress-up and catch-up on all the goings on since the last semi-annual time we got together.
We're sitting with old friends one of whom is an actual professional Portrait artist and former F-14 fighter pilot; he has friends who like to chat about art, and others who like to chat about military history, but I'm on the short list who likes to talk about both. Someday when that Nigerian Prince calls me back, I have big ideas to commission a religious work about Mary from the perspective of Eve. We like to talk about how we'd stage that -- and plan research trips to Sepphoris (birthplace) and elsewhere.
But, before the Gala, as is customary for Gaudete Sunday, we go to the tree farm to pick-up our 'Advent Tree' and then adorn it with lights and purple ribbon. The Sonos Evening Playlist is updated from the 'Pop Holiday Winter Mix' music to 'Christmas Crooner mix'. Eggnog is licit and no longer sneaked. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
Seems serviceable; but I'm not a fan of that style... way too much background noise and far too detailed (esp. background) -- creates a distraction to the subject.
Wife and I went to the National Portrait Gallery last year and looked at all the presidential portraits... my now settled opinion is that the Rembrandt school re-interpreted through Singer Sargent is the best(TM) style for portraits.
The distinction is painting the eyes... that's what we look at and that's how we make initial judgements about people... the further from the eye, the less detailed the stylings. The background is notional or just a solid color. But, it's hard to really capture the eyes and the person -- that's where genius resides.
I agree. There's a lot of room for revisiting policy with huge upsides to both growth and security; but I don't think there's a party (yet) that can navigate all the oxen that will be gored.
I say all policy should err towards mangnamity rather than pettiness.
When we begin indexing our social programs as we inevitably shall, let us instead *add* to the benefit output according to the number of children you've contributed to the commonwealth.
Now, if you want to ruin magnanimity with TechBro EA nonsense, you can base future benefits on the actual output of your children... i.e. your social security isn't based on your contributions but on your children's contributions (plus yours once your parents have passed). But that's just mathy elitism.
I mean, I don't think you should get less... just that I should get more.
On “Joe Biden Agrees that Some People *DO* Deserve the Death Penalty”
The tension comes from the fact that 'Intersectionality' is a power theory and not a justice theory.
You keep thinking it's the other, and it's not.
On “The Immigration Thing”
Sure, we're living through a sort of congressional torpor that has multi-faceted causes. I don't think the H1B issue will break us out of that... it'll just be forgotten with the next thing.
But, Europe's nosedive isn't from populism, it is from the liberal apparatus that was unable to form a coherent position on immigration at all. Populism in Europe is a response to the nosedive; maybe not a good response, but a response nonetheless.
The US is cruising on the empire's global reserve currency... our challenge is not to blow it.
On “Saturday Morning Gaming: Hades II First Impressions”
I went back to Last Epoch after giving POE 2 some serious play-time. It's just not fun.
My son who also pushed through stopped playing too. We talked about what they've lost from POE1 and our working theory is that the Dev team is playing the game 'backwards'. That is, they start with the assumption that we're at end-game maps and project backwards to a game that they didn't build. Another way to put it is this: if you make the *journey* to your endgame build a dick-punch... then there *has* to be fun pay-offs along the way. You have to *enjoy* playing a build that has no end-game synergy while fighting bosses that are overly tuned and don't drop rewarding loot. What made POE1 work is that the end-game progression became increasingly impossible so that people who like being punched in the nether regions could get that rush... while normal people could push a ceiling and see if the build they had was worth 'investing' in further... or just start another concept on an alt. The journey from concept to end-game was fun at each stage of power growth... and end-game provided a sort of endless ladder you could climb or just farm for materials for your next build. Win-Win.
What they are *really* missing is that all ARPGs are first Pimp My Build games which are augmented by Loot... and if you can't get to your build with an experience that makes you want to log-in to get to your end-game build... then you potentially have very serious issues that you won't see until after the initial adrenaline rush of new-game-itis.
Some of this is fixable with spreadsheet adjustments; but, some of the bigger issues require tossing parts of The Vision (TM) into the bin. I've started to develop a loathing for the lead Game Designer that I haven't felt in 25-yrs since back in the early MMO days.
On “The Immigration Thing”
Increase the floor, have companies bid on slots... and then let the H1B recipient change jobs/industries whenever they want.
Basically it changes the system/incentives from finding workers for fewer $ who have fewer options to companies/industries bidding on expanding the talent pool without any guaranty that they will directly benefit. The visa itself can have a ramping 1-, 2-, 3-year term contingent upon employment. It becomes a high-skilled worker immigration application process that employers fund. Heck, if the need is great enough, the auction for slots could fund job training programs!
The problem with laws that set-up systems is that the systems become the thing that governs what they do, not the laws which specified intent. Plus... add sclerotic oversite and updating, and pretty quickly you have a 'system' that has incentives that the constituents then lobby *not* to change so as to exploit the growing inefficiencies.
On “Joe Biden Agrees that Some People *DO* Deserve the Death Penalty”
Sometime in January 2025... 'Yes Your Holiness, I was deeply moved by your teachings and my conscience moved me to act as far as my Interns would permit.'
Carefully calculated to apply no general principal nor satisfy any particular good nor mollify any constituency at all. The Biden Presidency in a nutshell.
On “Weekend Plans Post: The Ghost Town”
This is my second Christmas with the new company... and the best thing ever is that our FY ends Jan 31.
So after 20+ years of trying to close EOY deals with CIO's in Switzerland and approvers approving between bumpers of eggnog at random times... I find that I have none of my bosses asking about that deal that I'm trying to close next month.
And I have absolutely no questions for Legal... So, Merry Christmas.
[somehow my boss still scheduled a 1:1 on Monday... but I refuse to believe it's real]
On “From The Wall Street Journal: How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge”
Is Biden an effective communicator anymore?
That's what's funny about the 'cite' dodge... the Election Loss is a cite. We're the audience and he didn't do this well is a cite. MattY and hundreds of people publicly commenting on Biden's diminished ability to drive his agenda is a cite.
C'mon man.
"
I think it's a good example.
You can link a White House 'rollup" of an OMB report to me and I'll read it!
But the question is whether there are things that the President does that can't be done by the OMB and Sr. Administration officials.
...and, making sure that the IRA is delivering and *everyone knows its delivering* is something the President does so that his party wins elections and keeps delivering.
... it also means handling scrutiny about whether the summary on a webpage is accurate and not just a thing put on a website by Sr. Administration officials.
"
Clearly this is how things work at the highest level.
However, the way that the Biden Administration lost control of the narrative and lost control of things like the
Inflation Reduction ActInfrastructure Spending Bill had negative effects. First, it's not clear that we are getting a good ROI on the actual Infrastructure Investments and Second, if we are, or to whatever extent we are, the lack of oversight and ownership by Biden and his Admin is the sort of thing the President typically does.So, I think it's fair to say that the American Public isn't really sure (i'm not sure the Govt. is sure) whether the IRA is spending it's $1T remit to any particular benefit other than contractors. That's a big Biden failure that I think is likely directly attributable to his decline and inability to own, manage and communicate his signature legislation. Presidents are still important to make sure that things get done and people are held (somewhat) accountable for consuming contracting $$$$$$ without delivering. The more $ the more important it is to own and manage.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/16/2024”
Eh, I think the lessons learned from post-modernism is that owning the language is actually part of the political power game.
I think you know that, but we know that too... what's newish is that what used to be an academic power move (successfully) transitioned into politics and now is being challenged in ways it wasn't before.
The Left successfully stole a march for about two decades on the language/power axis... but I don't think it will be as uncontested moving forward.
We might not enjoy how it plays out ... but I don't think anyone will believe the 'nothing is happening here' story going forward.
On “From The Wall Street Journal: How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge”
We shouldn't have cried Gorilla as early as we did.
Trump's lost a step, is too old for office and shouldn't be President... but my hunch is that slipping as much as Biden will be more noticable for the 1) absence of Trump from the big stage, or 2) Trump won't GAF and it'll be like the Biden Debate every day until, 3)
He gets knifed in the backPardoned and feted as the best President Ever as he Golfs his way to Valhalla."
Yeah, well, that's my supposition anyway... not that Biden had completely lost it, but that he [Obama] knew he'd passed from aging to aged. I think the steeper decline happened post election.
The 2020 election was sooo weird with Covid and the organized Tuesday consolidation where the young folk all dropped out... not out of conviction, but, well, not sure really.
"
Not in a conspiratorial way, but in the back of my mind I always kinda wondered if Obama knew Joe was past peak as VP and why he would never get behind him before he was president.
On “From Semafor: Kamala Harris’ digital chief on Democrats ‘losing hold of culture’”
I think the problem might be that you're in the same trench.
"
Yes, you'd think. Both parties have plausible paths.
My counterpoint for consideration would be that the Dems still have quite a few orthodoxies that would need dismantling while Trump has already dismantled quite a few Republican orthodoxies. The post-Trump party is already deconstructed...
That doesn't mean R's will come up with a winning coalition/policy mix... but their iterations have fewer constraints (good or bad).
"
A broad anti-Trump coalition is self limiting.
The coalition should include people who aren't anti-Trump but people for whom you could make a case that your presidency would be good for them.
She never really made a case, she tried to not make a case that she would be as Liberal as she was in 2019 by *not* saying anything that might imply that. But, she never made the affirmative case of what she'd do differently from 2019 Harris.
As a result the only person who beat Harris convincingly was 2019 Harris being broadcast relentlessly across the airwaves.
I heard some talk of concerns about The Left not voting for her... I think it's instructive that Trump took the concerns about the SoCons dropping him over his abortion stances and said f*uck it, who are they going to vote for instead? He wanted his coalition to include Biden/Harris voters.... and sonuvabidge if it doesn't.
"
Yes, it is extremely unsatisfying to realize that the proper alignment of ideas to party does not lead to electoral success but fitfully. Especially in a two party system.
The good news of not changing is that it may very well work in the next cycle. The bad news is that it will continue to remain an unreliable prediction until the next politician who carves up the previous assumptions into a better winning coalition.
First party to the Upper Left quadrant wins.
"
I wouldn't say that the Left has 'lost control' of the culture making apparatus. It hasn't. I suspect, however, that the culture making apparatus was never as Left as the Left hoped. That said; the culture making apparatus mostly wants to make money more than it wants to re-make culture.
"
I try to restrain myself from saying 'the reason your party lost is...'
But I don't think it's necessarily wrong to say, 'you might want to consider additional reasons to the only one you're bringing up.' Like, in the spirit of fraternal help.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Back Into the Swing of Things”
We have a Gala charity event on Saturday... not exactly the Met Gala, more of a local school gym Gala. But a Gala nonetheless. Or so we're told. Anyhow, one of those local events where all the adults in the community dress-up and catch-up on all the goings on since the last semi-annual time we got together.
We're sitting with old friends one of whom is an actual professional Portrait artist and former F-14 fighter pilot; he has friends who like to chat about art, and others who like to chat about military history, but I'm on the short list who likes to talk about both. Someday when that Nigerian Prince calls me back, I have big ideas to commission a religious work about Mary from the perspective of Eve. We like to talk about how we'd stage that -- and plan research trips to Sepphoris (birthplace) and elsewhere.
But, before the Gala, as is customary for Gaudete Sunday, we go to the tree farm to pick-up our 'Advent Tree' and then adorn it with lights and purple ribbon. The Sonos Evening Playlist is updated from the 'Pop Holiday Winter Mix' music to 'Christmas Crooner mix'. Eggnog is licit and no longer sneaked. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/9/2024”
Seems serviceable; but I'm not a fan of that style... way too much background noise and far too detailed (esp. background) -- creates a distraction to the subject.
Wife and I went to the National Portrait Gallery last year and looked at all the presidential portraits... my now settled opinion is that the Rembrandt school re-interpreted through Singer Sargent is the best(TM) style for portraits.
The distinction is painting the eyes... that's what we look at and that's how we make initial judgements about people... the further from the eye, the less detailed the stylings. The background is notional or just a solid color. But, it's hard to really capture the eyes and the person -- that's where genius resides.
On “From the New York Post: UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson fatally shot outside Hilton hotel in Midtown in targeted attack: cops”
I agree. There's a lot of room for revisiting policy with huge upsides to both growth and security; but I don't think there's a party (yet) that can navigate all the oxen that will be gored.
"
Sales manager: how can I make a game that will determine how much he will over-promise and just how much he will under-deliver?
"
Yes, well, keep an alert eye open for Werewolf games. ... there's no walking back from that.
"
I say all policy should err towards mangnamity rather than pettiness.
When we begin indexing our social programs as we inevitably shall, let us instead *add* to the benefit output according to the number of children you've contributed to the commonwealth.
Now, if you want to ruin magnanimity with TechBro EA nonsense, you can base future benefits on the actual output of your children... i.e. your social security isn't based on your contributions but on your children's contributions (plus yours once your parents have passed). But that's just mathy elitism.
I mean, I don't think you should get less... just that I should get more.