It isn't about the votes, entirely. It's about losing a fight in a way that sets you up to win the next one... or, even though the Dems don't have the votes, arguing that there are better Republican options is the way to get Republicans to get nervous about voting for lesser options and start to talk about better options.
Or... the Dems lose the vote on Hegseth having proposed a better approach to DoD and can bank that for future campaigns.
That's why I call it political malpractice... it isn't about always getting *your* guy or *your* way when you don't have the votes... it's about making the other team pay a prices for getting *their* way.
Look, we can't always nominate people with a perfect resume like Donald Rumsfeld, but we do what we can...
More seriously, I think there's more than enough 'ammunition' to challenge whether he has the experience and institutional savvy to navigate DoD.
A better approach to derailing the nomination is to have shadow candidates (as part of the 'advise' portion of the advise and consent) who expose Hegseth for the over extended nominee that he is. This is just another example of political malpractice -- it feels better, but isn't effective.
I'm currently working in the space and would say that the way to think about the LLM is as one component of a framework. In simple terms, it's doing the amazing semantic work of interpreting questions, search, and formatting answers.
Where I'm seeing the tech actually go, however, isn't in hoping that LLMS get smarter and less hallucinogenic (though that's happening too), it's using the LLM as a lego block to do the semantic thing, while carefully limiting what it needs to review, plus adding human led review of output to further fine-tune and train what 'good' looks like.
But as others have mentioned, that makes it a really good 'search' engine; but much more than *just* a search engine since it does semantics much better than key word SOE... BUT, it really is kinda dumb and has a really hard time figuring out what a 'good' response is in applications we'd like to use it for -- not without strict focus and curation. So, a really cool tool that we'll definitely see more of, but not (probably) as direct access to the LLM itself.
On the less Tech Optimist side, the LLMs themselves outside of the current agentic use of them could (I'd hypothesize) slip their boundaries with enough training and compute, if not careful.
Are you talking about 'undocumented citizens' ... I'd be curious what level of exposure that is... sure, I could imagine a 100yo fellow born at home in rural West Texas that might have some(?) challenges... probably not, but I could imagine a curious edge case.
Live birth recordings are generally available online on a state-by-state basis. Heck, you can get *anyone's* birth certificate after 75 yrs:
Protected records are:
Birth certificates from the last 75 years
https://ovra.txapps.texas.gov/ovra/order-vital-records?
Anyhow, would be interested in a cite where someone is making the case that Citizens are at risk.
Note, I'm not commenting specifically on the Laken Riley bill (which doesn't reference citizen deportations that I could tell from the article), but curious about this sort of claim that I'm starting to hear bubbling under the surface -- trying to get a bead on that.
Yes, it's a peace anthem for a certain liberal of a certain age and social stripe; the surprising thing to me, at least, wasn't that he was that sort of liberal, but that he was that sort of age and social stripe.
I'd have put him as more of a Woody Guthrie guy -- but how would I know?
Sure, I reckon there are more than only three options for most things; I'd prefer more vectors of pressure for policy discussions that merely us or them.
Seems to me it's now just part of the silly polarization cycle... Team Blue feels like Team Red is scoring points on Urban Blue Hubs... so Team Blue *must* defend the system as-is lest Team Red score a point somewhere. It's the weirdest thing.
I mean, both sides do it, but that's just exhibit #4,583,221 why we need out of this duopoly.
Heh, so at least we can agree that these systems need improvement that will cost money and are part of the mental health crisis. That's the common agreement that we should start from.
Fixing? Sure that's hard, but it's better to say we have all of these problems and we should begin to address them than to tell people they are being silly and participating in a Moral Panic (tm).
Yes to both. This is one of those weird things that should be a simple point of agreement: Public Transit Services should be better than they currently are. We don't need to defend the slow deterioration of the Metro - both materially and experientially - as some sort of hidden benefit that we just need to dig a little deeper to appreciate. It's worse, we all know it... if we're pro-Transit and/or pro-Services, then acknowledging the decline should be part of the story for making it better.
It's not Thunderdome down below, but that's not the bar that good services and public safety needs to stay under to be considered well run.
Hoping to reset my work circadian rhythm after two consecutive weeks of a Weds holiday obliterating any meaningful activity.
Also, Halleluah is kinda lewd and get's played in really inappropriate settings. It's a classic overwrought boomer song that has a good melody if you ignore the lyrics. Sorry.
As a reminder... this is the NDA case where his misdemeanors for improperly recording the (legal) business transaction routed through Cohen were 'elevated' to felonies on the theory that they were done with the intent to commit a felony. That felony (Fed Election finance laws? Tax Fraud? NY Election laws? ) was never proved, nor was it even charged... and the last time it (FECA) was prosecuted against John Edwards who literally had campaign donors stroke $1M in checks while his Campaign manager claimed the child was his -- no one bought that it was a campaign finance violation and he was acquitted.
So, rather than prove a felony that isn't (likely) a felony, Bragg used the idea of a *possible* felony to elevate the charges. I understand that the law is not linear with it's logical requirements; but in an ordinary state of affairs, the improper recording of the transaction would be a misdemeanor that could be elevated to a felony upon conviction of the felony.
Further 'complicating' matters, Bragg didn't assert any specific felony *had* been committed:
"If you’re looking for the clearest statement of Bragg’s legal theory, you can find it in a November 2023 court filing opposing Trump’s motion to dismiss the case, along with Merchan’s ruling on that motion. Notably, in that ruling, Merchan clarified that § 175.10 “does not require that the ‘other crime’ actually be committed”—“all that is required is that defendant … acted with a conscious aim and objective to commit another crime.”
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/charting-the-legal-theory-behind-people-v.-trump
Lastly, IMO the 'proof' that this was a show trial purely for election consumption was the constant use of 34 felonies; why? Because in ordinary public discourse people are concerned about the illegal act itself: we don't say a murderer was convicted of the 10 other things that went along with the murder conviction. It's the murder that people make the judgement on, not illegal firearm possession or transporting violations. And, in this case it literally wasn't 'Hush Money' but improper recording of payments through Cohen -- through 34 paper trail infractions. Here's a good NPR summary of the '34 felonies':
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/g-s1-1848/trump-hush-money-trial-34-counts
Pretending to 'revisit' the judgement in light of SCOTUS ruling was actually a fig-leaf for Merchan/Bragg to bail on the the project with a semblance of dignity by preserving the conviction and hoping it goes away.
I've chronicled my travails trying to get Comcast to bridge the last 1/4 mile from my house (TLDR: they won't)... so I got a 'grey market' Tmobile unlimited wifi service... then Tmob wen't legit and I got that for 50% less... then I finally got Starlink and I must say that Starlink is really fast with low latency: 30ms / 200 mbs.
for rural folks, wifi/starlink is the way to go... invest there.
(Plus, close all Broadband loophole that allows them to self-report 'full coverage' and refuse to connect people like me).
On “No Fighting In the War Room: Pete Hegseth Confirmation Hearing Livestream Edition”
Heh, there are quite a few ways to lose the DoD argument available to the Dems.
"
It isn't about the votes, entirely. It's about losing a fight in a way that sets you up to win the next one... or, even though the Dems don't have the votes, arguing that there are better Republican options is the way to get Republicans to get nervous about voting for lesser options and start to talk about better options.
Or... the Dems lose the vote on Hegseth having proposed a better approach to DoD and can bank that for future campaigns.
That's why I call it political malpractice... it isn't about always getting *your* guy or *your* way when you don't have the votes... it's about making the other team pay a prices for getting *their* way.
"
Look, we can't always nominate people with a perfect resume like Donald Rumsfeld, but we do what we can...
More seriously, I think there's more than enough 'ammunition' to challenge whether he has the experience and institutional savvy to navigate DoD.
A better approach to derailing the nomination is to have shadow candidates (as part of the 'advise' portion of the advise and consent) who expose Hegseth for the over extended nominee that he is. This is just another example of political malpractice -- it feels better, but isn't effective.
On “Short Status Report on the Abilities of AI”
I'm currently working in the space and would say that the way to think about the LLM is as one component of a framework. In simple terms, it's doing the amazing semantic work of interpreting questions, search, and formatting answers.
Where I'm seeing the tech actually go, however, isn't in hoping that LLMS get smarter and less hallucinogenic (though that's happening too), it's using the LLM as a lego block to do the semantic thing, while carefully limiting what it needs to review, plus adding human led review of output to further fine-tune and train what 'good' looks like.
But as others have mentioned, that makes it a really good 'search' engine; but much more than *just* a search engine since it does semantics much better than key word SOE... BUT, it really is kinda dumb and has a really hard time figuring out what a 'good' response is in applications we'd like to use it for -- not without strict focus and curation. So, a really cool tool that we'll definitely see more of, but not (probably) as direct access to the LLM itself.
On the less Tech Optimist side, the LLMs themselves outside of the current agentic use of them could (I'd hypothesize) slip their boundaries with enough training and compute, if not careful.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/13/2025”
From the Canal to the Yukon Territory...
"
Heh, constitutional bake-off 1776 vs 1917.
edit: erm, I guess it's 1788... but 1776 is more dramatic.
"
They aren't illegal if the border moves south.
Trade open borders for expanding borders!
"
Then we annex Canada and BOOM! right back here again.
"
Thanks for clarifying; strikes me a rhetorical escalation to call that Citizen Deportation, but it helps to know where that's coming from.
On slippery slopes in matters social, I have it on good authority from years of leftist criticisms that Slippery Slopes do not exist.
"
Where's the claim that citizens will be deported?
Are you talking about 'undocumented citizens' ... I'd be curious what level of exposure that is... sure, I could imagine a 100yo fellow born at home in rural West Texas that might have some(?) challenges... probably not, but I could imagine a curious edge case.
Live birth recordings are generally available online on a state-by-state basis. Heck, you can get *anyone's* birth certificate after 75 yrs:
Protected records are:
Birth certificates from the last 75 years
https://ovra.txapps.texas.gov/ovra/order-vital-records?
Anyhow, would be interested in a cite where someone is making the case that Citizens are at risk.
Note, I'm not commenting specifically on the Laken Riley bill (which doesn't reference citizen deportations that I could tell from the article), but curious about this sort of claim that I'm starting to hear bubbling under the surface -- trying to get a bead on that.
On “Open Mic for the week of 1/6/2025”
Ok, hear me out, what if we think of them as a feeder band for the Travelling Wilburys?
"
Dang, the Left (tm) is mean.
"
Awww, the poppy mop-top boys were ok.
[sorry, best I can do, Mike]
"
Yes, it's a peace anthem for a certain liberal of a certain age and social stripe; the surprising thing to me, at least, wasn't that he was that sort of liberal, but that he was that sort of age and social stripe.
I'd have put him as more of a Woody Guthrie guy -- but how would I know?
"
Take that victory lap...
"
Yes, it's impressive calling 230 for Harris. It's the 308 you called for JEB! that we're less impressed with.
"
If Kamala had only had the courage... oh, never mind, we changed the 1887 ECA with the ECRA in 2022. Good for us anyway.
On “Re-Open the Asylums: A New Take”
Sure, I reckon there are more than only three options for most things; I'd prefer more vectors of pressure for policy discussions that merely us or them.
On “Justin Trudeau Resigns As Liberal Leader and Prime Minster of Canada”
The US should make a cash offer to the Board: Two States, Two Territories, and one Free City.
On “Re-Open the Asylums: A New Take”
Seems to me it's now just part of the silly polarization cycle... Team Blue feels like Team Red is scoring points on Urban Blue Hubs... so Team Blue *must* defend the system as-is lest Team Red score a point somewhere. It's the weirdest thing.
I mean, both sides do it, but that's just exhibit #4,583,221 why we need out of this duopoly.
"
Heh, so at least we can agree that these systems need improvement that will cost money and are part of the mental health crisis. That's the common agreement that we should start from.
Fixing? Sure that's hard, but it's better to say we have all of these problems and we should begin to address them than to tell people they are being silly and participating in a Moral Panic (tm).
"
Yes to both. This is one of those weird things that should be a simple point of agreement: Public Transit Services should be better than they currently are. We don't need to defend the slow deterioration of the Metro - both materially and experientially - as some sort of hidden benefit that we just need to dig a little deeper to appreciate. It's worse, we all know it... if we're pro-Transit and/or pro-Services, then acknowledging the decline should be part of the story for making it better.
It's not Thunderdome down below, but that's not the bar that good services and public safety needs to stay under to be considered well run.
On “Weekend Plans Post: Leonard Cohen”
Hoping to reset my work circadian rhythm after two consecutive weeks of a Weds holiday obliterating any meaningful activity.
Also, Halleluah is kinda lewd and get's played in really inappropriate settings. It's a classic overwrought boomer song that has a good melody if you ignore the lyrics. Sorry.
On “Open Mic for the week of 12/30/2024”
As a reminder... this is the NDA case where his misdemeanors for improperly recording the (legal) business transaction routed through Cohen were 'elevated' to felonies on the theory that they were done with the intent to commit a felony. That felony (Fed Election finance laws? Tax Fraud? NY Election laws? ) was never proved, nor was it even charged... and the last time it (FECA) was prosecuted against John Edwards who literally had campaign donors stroke $1M in checks while his Campaign manager claimed the child was his -- no one bought that it was a campaign finance violation and he was acquitted.
So, rather than prove a felony that isn't (likely) a felony, Bragg used the idea of a *possible* felony to elevate the charges. I understand that the law is not linear with it's logical requirements; but in an ordinary state of affairs, the improper recording of the transaction would be a misdemeanor that could be elevated to a felony upon conviction of the felony.
Further 'complicating' matters, Bragg didn't assert any specific felony *had* been committed:
"If you’re looking for the clearest statement of Bragg’s legal theory, you can find it in a November 2023 court filing opposing Trump’s motion to dismiss the case, along with Merchan’s ruling on that motion. Notably, in that ruling, Merchan clarified that § 175.10 “does not require that the ‘other crime’ actually be committed”—“all that is required is that defendant … acted with a conscious aim and objective to commit another crime.”
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/charting-the-legal-theory-behind-people-v.-trump
Lastly, IMO the 'proof' that this was a show trial purely for election consumption was the constant use of 34 felonies; why? Because in ordinary public discourse people are concerned about the illegal act itself: we don't say a murderer was convicted of the 10 other things that went along with the murder conviction. It's the murder that people make the judgement on, not illegal firearm possession or transporting violations. And, in this case it literally wasn't 'Hush Money' but improper recording of payments through Cohen -- through 34 paper trail infractions. Here's a good NPR summary of the '34 felonies':
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/g-s1-1848/trump-hush-money-trial-34-counts
Pretending to 'revisit' the judgement in light of SCOTUS ruling was actually a fig-leaf for Merchan/Bragg to bail on the the project with a semblance of dignity by preserving the conviction and hoping it goes away.
This is not a hill to die on.
"
I've chronicled my travails trying to get Comcast to bridge the last 1/4 mile from my house (TLDR: they won't)... so I got a 'grey market' Tmobile unlimited wifi service... then Tmob wen't legit and I got that for 50% less... then I finally got Starlink and I must say that Starlink is really fast with low latency: 30ms / 200 mbs.
for rural folks, wifi/starlink is the way to go... invest there.
(Plus, close all Broadband loophole that allows them to self-report 'full coverage' and refuse to connect people like me).