President Biden’s Inauguration: Day One for Forty Six

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Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has since lived and traveled around the world several times over. Though frequently writing about politics out of a sense of duty and love of country, most of the time he would prefer discussions on history, culture, occasionally nerding on aviation, and his amateur foodie tendencies. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter @four4thefire and his writing website Yonderandhome.com

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  1. Avatar North
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    So it is done and yet on we go.

    I’m not an enormously seasons Presidential watcher: I started closely minding American politics around the turn of the millennium so really I’ve only closely seen W., Obama, Trump and now Biden though I had vague impressions of the Clinton admin.

    I’m looking forward to seeing how this new, not flashy, not exciting administration with its elderly executive and this national drama hangover turns out. The media is going to be thrashing like a heroine addict chained to a radiator now that Trump won’t be here to churn out grist for them.

    And I’ll be curious to see where the GOP goes. Their last administrations in the past two decades have been one of genial know-nothing incompetence followed by outright malevolent, corrupt incompetence. How long can they go on with this contrast?

    Oh and Chait sums up Obama’s own triumph in this outcome pretty well:
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/trump-wanted-to-erase-obamas-legacy-he-failed.htmlReport

    • Avatar Oscar Gordon in reply to North
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      The WA GOP seems to be all in for Trump and has censured the two GOP House members who voted to impeach. I mean, this is WA, the GOP is on life support here, and they are still raging about all those stupid anti-smoking activists will demanding another cigarette.Report

      • Avatar North in reply to Oscar Gordon
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        I hear the AZ GOP is following the same path and that is far more substantive since that could mean AZ follows the path of CA if the GOP there self immolates.
        It will also be massively interesting to see what happens in GA. GA is a huge fishing deal. If the right starts turning on each other in GA then we’re talking about the whole ballgame. Fish you FL and OH, the Dems won’t ever need you again.Report

  2. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    Biden looks like he can be one of the most transformative Democratic Presidents since FDR. Maybe since FDR though LBJ is close. It does not help that he inherited the Presidency from an oil barge ramming into a dumpster fire.Report

  3. Avatar Jaybird
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    Eh, I’m looking forward to the next 3 months or so. Biden has a real opportunity here.

    I’m curious if he’s going to replay 2009 or actually do some interesting stuff in the coming months. I know that the 2022 elections probably will be the most important elections of our lifetimes, given that they will decide if Biden gets more support in the House and Senate or less of it.

    (What’s the feeling on getting rid of the filibuster in the current year? I could understand wanting to get rid of it if Mitchler McConnell still was majority leader, but he’s a minority leader and it’s razor thin…)

    There’s alrealy good vibes coming in on the journalism front… it looks like the papers are going to give him a honeymoon period and there’s good news about covid around the corner and those first executive orders undid a lot of Trump’s executive orders… heck, I’m sure that by the end of the first 100 days, it’ll be like Trump was never even president. (Well, on an Executive level, anyway.)

    (Heck, I’m already seeing people saying that Biden is going to exceed even Barack Obama.)Report

    • Avatar Dark Matter in reply to Jaybird
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      I’m already seeing people saying that Biden is going to exceed even Barack Obama.

      Joe’s resume is a LOT stronger and longer. He seems to have sought out leadership/management positions. Think of him as Obama with 40 years of experience and leaving a paper trail.Report

      • Avatar North in reply to Dark Matter
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        He also was there when Obama made his run at Hope&Change. You can be certain that Biden won’t be making that mistake nor does his campaign require that he has to try particularly hard.Report

        • Avatar Oscar Gordon in reply to North
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          says:

          The one appeal Joe has for me (and we all know I loathe all politicians) is that no one, right or left, is calling him some kind of messiah.

          He’s just Joe.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Oscar Gordon
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            October is just around the corner. The Nobel Peace Prize is on the table!

            There’s a handful of things that I’m keeping my eye out for.

            I know that there’s going to be a handful of people stand up and say something to the effect of “what about the deficit? This isn’t a sustainable path!” or whatever.

            Whataboutism is appropriate here. WHAT THE HELL WHERE THE HELL WERE YOU IN THE LAST 4 YEARS WHY IN THE HELL IS THIS SUDDENLY SOMETHING WORTH TALKING ABOUT and so on. This strikes me as perfectly fair. Someone who clears their throat and asks about the deficit at this point is pretty stupid.

            I mean, even if the deficit is something that we will (eventually) need to tackle lest the Yuan becomes the world’s default currency, bringing it up as a reason to oppose any given suggestion given by Biden is bullshit.

            Maybe it can be a good thing to talk about in 2022. Sure. But someone who brings it up *NOW*? Ugh.

            There are other whatabouts though that are probably fair game. Whatabout ICE? What’s going on with that? Whatabout the caravan? Is there going to be a policy about that? Is the AUMF still considered good? I mean, if we start going after Syria or something in the next year, is the AUMF going to be a sufficient justification? (Hey, it’ll be like Trump was never president in more ways than one!)

            There’s also going to be tension between the relief that Biden is a return to normalcy and the feeling that maybe the press is being a little too… nice?

            Like, it’s one thing to say “hey, Biden is having his press secretary go out there every day and answer questions for a half hour AND ISN’T THAT NICE OH MY GOSH” and quite another to have the questions in the half hour be about whether or not Biden intends to keep Donald Trump’s Air Force One color scheme change or whether he’ll return to an Obama-era one.

            You know what? It *IS* nice to have a real press secretary answering questions. It’d also be nice for them to be real questions. If the golden age of journalism is over and we’re going to go back to in-depth stories involving the different color choices made for the upcoming White House Correspondents’ Dinner, that would be bad.

            I’m hoping that Biden will turn things around and am somewhat okay with an artificial lowering of expectations that turns into hitting the original expected target and that being cheered as “exceeding expectations”. That’s fine. The last 4 years were rough.

            But if we start pretending that it’s 2009 again, it’ll be 2010 again soon.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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              Biden doesn’t control the media, and never has. So what can one say about that except to shrug?

              Having grown up in Canada in the 90’s I have seen, first hand, what an actual deficit concern is in a first world country. The bad news for conservatives (and republitarians) is that it doesn’t turn out well for their priorities. Spending gets cut, yes, but the military gets taken to the woodshed and taxes will go up. Like, a lot.
              And, it bears noting, the US is doesn’t appear to actually be particularly close to a deficit crisis yet.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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                Biden doesn’t control the media but the media is on this weird trip currently…

                If we, as a country, are in an epistemic divorce, that will be bad.

                I am not saying that it will be Biden’s Fault. Biden, after all, does not control the media (and the body language of the press secretary with the reporter who asked about Air Force One’s color scheme spoke volumes).

                My concern isn’t “BIDEN BAD!”

                I don’t think he’s bad. (Well, at least not yet.) Any quibbles I might have on him not being good enough are, at this point, silly quibbles in the vein of “what about the deficit?”

                The media, however, is part of why 2008 turned into 2010 and why 2014 turned into 2016.

                Given that I hope that it not be 2016 again for a good long while, I’m keeping my eye out for the news media pretending it is.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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                Sure, but again this is utterly outside the political realm.

                I mean we’re talking about the entire news media ecosystem which is skittering around like rats trying to pretend that the planet they live on isn’t a hollowed out shell like the planet they found Nibbler on in Futurama.
                The entire media economic model is exploded, like, kablooey. Ok, we’ll build an ark to go to a new media economic model. The new ark went kablooey.

                Okay well lets skitter around, shriek about intersectionality and unionize writers.

                That won’t fix that our entire economic model is defunct and the replacement one imploded.

                Do YOU have a solution?

                *Skittering around, shrieking about intersectionality and unionizing ensues.*Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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                No, I don’t. I think everything is tied into Elite Overproduction which means that there are too many journalism majors and the fresh-faced kid who wanted to work at the NYT is treating all sorts of big city newspapers like 2nd choices and then small city newspapers like 3rd choices and the next thing you know, you’re at the Des Moines Register scouring the social media history of a guy who donated a million bucks to a Children’s Hospital.

                And I have no idea how to fix the whole issue of a race to the bottom in a declining market where the good it provides is 100% divorced from the way it makes its money.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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                Even Politico has noticed! (Or maybe this is one of those things where I’m confusing contrarianism with insight. Again.)

                Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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                Mm hmm.
                Mainstream media outlets like Fox, OAN, Sinclair and the Hill are not to be trusted and should tone down the Biden adulation.

                Mmmhmm. Got it.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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                Yeah, the article (which I don’t blame you for not reading!) was mostly talking about the Wal-Mart brands CNN, MSNBC, and the Warshington Post.

                Who in the hell is Jack Shafer? Does he even have a resume?Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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                Did the article explain what makes CNN mainstream while Fox is not?Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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                It most certainly did not.

                I mean, CNN isn’t even being shown at airports anymore.

                (To be perfectly honest, I think that it lost every single drop of its mainstream credibility with Eason Jordan’s “The News We Kept To Ourselves” essay. Have they done anything since to gain some back? I haven’t seen evidence of anything.)Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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                says:

                Opinion:
                At a time when large portions of the country think that mainstream media is a tool of the corporate right, its time to tone down the criticism of Biden.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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                An additional positive indicator?

                (I honestly thought that the NYT Editorial was not in a place where it would do this, given the aftermath of Cotton’s editorial.)Report

              • Avatar Brandon Berg in reply to Jaybird
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                This is a real head-scratcher. The NYT firing her over this in order to preserve the appearance of objectivity is like closing the barn door after the walls have burned down.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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                This isn’t just about supply. Yes we’re producing mountains of journalism majors but the media institutions are imploding. The demand is not… collapsing… exactly but the internet has made it so everyone can be an ameteur journalist (and everyone can be pretty much as good if not better than a professional opinion writer) and it turns out there are mountains of people who’ll do it for free.

                Also there’s no add revenue anymore.Report

              • Avatar Michael Cain in reply to North
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                Tell Facebook and Twitter and Google that there’s no ad revenue any more. Parler’s business model was to sell ad placement to underserved businesses.Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Michael Cain
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                says:

                In a sense this is a repeat of the last major disruptive change in media.
                Hearst became fabulously rich selling ads over what was essentially Twitter-level clickbait stories.

                But this whole handwringing over “mainstream media is unreliable” is absurd.

                First, why the adjective? If someone claims that “mainstream” media like NYT and CNN are unreliable, does that mean “non-mainstream” media like the NY Post and Fox are reliable?

                Aside from the Trump dead enders, no one is foolish enough to make that claim.

                So what are we left with? The Cretan Daily News telling us that all Cretans are liars?
                Well, no they really don’t want to say that either.

                Instead, in almost every case, the claim that “mainstream media is unreliable” really just boils down to “They aren’t telling me what I want to hear.”Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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                Supply + Crab Bucket.

                When Trumpler was in office, it was useful to be partisan to sell papers and get clicks.

                The serious (or “serious”) journalism outlets are now seeming to realize that a return to normalcy involves more than just bombing Libya. It involves them changing too.Report

          • Avatar Kazzy in reply to Oscar Gordon
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            says:

            This. Whether it is personality or age or what, I don’t think Biden has massive ambitions, at least relative to other recent Presidents.Report

          • Avatar North in reply to Oscar Gordon
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            Yeah that is a selling point for him for me too. Obama was fine, but with Bush lesser, Obama and Trump we have a whole freight train of messianic Presidents in a row.Report

          • Avatar Pinky in reply to Oscar Gordon
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            “no one, right or left, is calling him some kind of messiah”

            MSNBC’s Eddie Glaude: “Thinking about all of those folks who just for the moment, the nation shared their grief. Oh, what a first st – what a beautiful step. So, I’m I’m gonna, you know – I’m reminded of the Psalmist, you know, ‘he heals the broken-hearted and binds up their wounds’. Um, maybe the death will speak to us now, maybe they can rest now.”Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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      The filibuster is going nowhere, everyone knows it; Democratic Leadership knows it; Joe Manchin knows it. There will be zero effort to run at it and anyone who suggests they should is an idiot.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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        Well, here’s Ezra Klein.

        The entire essay is pretty good (and though I don’t share some of the premises and, as such, don’t reach anywhere NEAR the same conclusions that he does, people who share his premises should familiarize themselves with the current narrative that has just entered the fray).

        Report

        • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird
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          Joe Manchin doesn’t want it to go because it makes Manchin king… the interesting play is whether you can find an R or two who will gamble that D overreach will deliver them a filibuster free Senate and congress for 2022 and 2024.

          I would be a weird pitch but it would look like this:

          Schumer: Remember how we nuked the filibuster for Judicial appointments and y’all got the greenlight to keep nuking and then you got all those judges you wanted? Well, if you support us now we’ll nuke the filibuster for good… and who knows, maybe you’ll get to do the whole judges thing again, but this time with legislation.

          Hawley: You make an interesting point, sir.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Marchmaine
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            If I had to bet anything about the 2022 elections (JEEZ LOUISE, JAYBIRD! IT’S NOT EVEN LUNCHTIME FOR BIDEN’S FIRST FULL DAY), it’d be that the same thing that happened to Trump, Obama, Bush, and Clinton over the last 28 years will happen to Biden.

            I mean, I’d be willing to entertain arguments for why this time will be different but I think that the burden of proof for that argument is on the “this time will be different” team rather than the “this time will be the same as the last 4 times” team.

            As such, I’d see that deal as worth making *ONLY* if the Whip is confident and the legislation will start delivering quickly.

            Hrm. We’re also going to have to get used to the idea of news cycles taking longer than they used to.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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              Assuming the Dems loose ground in 2022 is the default assumption and probably the safe one but there is hope. The dynamic on the right is very… different… this time than it was in 2008 and Biden doesn’t have Obama’s idealism. Also Biden and his party don’t have the Liberman et all folks in their ranks that Obama had to deal with in 2008 and ALSO Biden and his party lived through the 2008-2010 era.

              I remember in 09 when Megan Mcardle was cackling about how the GOP would play footsie with the Dems on healthcare reform, then yank the rug out from under their feet at the last minute and nothing would be passed. I recall, with a warm glow, her screeching outrage when Pelosi and Reid declined to play the game by those rules. It turned out the Dems ALSO remembered what had happened in the 90’s.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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                Also Biden and his party don’t have the Liberman et all folks in their ranks that Obama had to deal with in 2008 and ALSO Biden and his party lived through the 2008-2010 era.

                Hrm. As well as the 2020 election. Pelosi had a great line a million years ago: “We came here to do a job. Not keep a job.”

                That said, Biden probably has three really big bullets in his gun, a bunch of medium bullets in his gun, and damn near infinite small bullets in his gun.

                He probably knows that he will only get to fire one or two of his big bullets and he’ll only get to fire the third if he picks the right two first ones. So he has to pick those carefully.

                Keystone/Energy/Environment is going to be the really troublesome one when it comes to distributed costs and police reform proved a point of contention in the days after the election (luckily, Trump did a great job of saying “why aren’t they talking about *ME* and turning the topic back to him).

                What would be the third thing? Guns?

                Because if the environment thing is one of the things that goes through, the message for 2022 and 2024 is going to be Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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                Covid first, stimulus second, voting rights third would be my bet. Energy is a much lower tier category. Police reform is sticky primarily in that it’s not, generally, a federal issue. Barring yet another gun attack I doubt gun regulation is even top ten.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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                I don’t see the Covid thing as a thing that will expend any political capital whatsoever. If he just stays on target with the numbers so far, we’ll hit 100,000,000 vaccinated in April and that will be worth celebrating in its own right.

                The current stimulus fight might be interesting but I think he can get to a $1400 check by only firing a medium bullet and that’s good enough.

                The police reform thing may not even be an issue in a week or two. The Portland Enthusiastic Mass Gathering was broken up by Our Brave Boys In Blue last night using approved riot control methods. AS WELL IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN. They may not even need to triangulate.

                From what I understand, all of the violence at the so-called “antifa” riots was done by right-wing plants. Just treat future “antifa” riots as such and the problem disappears.

                My guess is: Environment and Cost of Pharma. And that’s it. Those are his two.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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                Ya left out voting rights, which I think he can, should and must tackle early and which we both know the GOP will fight to the death to try and block.Report

          • Avatar North in reply to Marchmaine
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            They could try that pitch but I don’t think it’ll work. The filibuster is hated by the voters but it’s extraordinarily useful for Senators and Congresscritters; it lets them vote for bills while being confident the bill will fail. Republicans and Democrats alike have used it on all kinds of things their base loves but that the overall voters will hate. Abortion, for instance.

            More specifically, though, I don’t think this pitch to the right will work. The things the filibuster blocks mostly involve ideas, actions and policies. The GOP, in its current incarnation, is the anti-action, anti-policy party. Anything that makes it easier for the Dems to govern is gonna be an anathema to the GOP because it would enable the Dems to put policies into place that’d be popular and then the GOP- when they got power, would be too afraid to roll them back.Report

            • Avatar Marchmaine in reply to North
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              I didn’t say it *would* work, I just pointed out how going through Manchin which everyone thinks is the way to go is, in fact, not the way to go.

              But then, I’m not convinced the DEMs really want it to go… but if Ezra’s right and maybe they do? Then that’s the sort of pitch you’re making to back-benchers.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Marchmaine
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                Man, I see your point, I think you could try but I just don’t see it happening. Convincing Manchin is hard but at least he’s on your fishing team and if your team does well he also is likely to do well. Republican Senators face serious repercussions if they sign on to anything the Dems do -even if it’s good for the country and well liked by the voters-. That is just where the GOP and the right is right now- the threat to GOP senators is being primaried from the right and it’s a serious threat.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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          Ezra says the Dems should eliminate the filibuster because they have a 50/50 Senate. Conveniently missing from his analysis is how the Dems would go about actually getting the fifty votes to eliminate the filibuster.

          “Put the screws to Manchin! Tell him who’s boss!!” Howl the internet liberals.

          So the Dems have a 49-51 minority and Republican Senator Manchin is reelected in a landslide in his state. Joe Biden has spent the last 2 years fighting cocaine Mitch to get his cabinet approved and hasn’t gotten a single judge onto the bench but at least he has Ezra Kleins’ vote.

          Oh wait.. Joe didn’t get anything done because he lost the Senate. So he doesn’t have Ezra Kleins’ vote in 2022 either.

          Yeah I think Schumer and Biden are right to be cautious on this. Leave having your party run by the media bobbleheads to the Republicans.Report

        • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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          Every American is by default, a Republican.
          Can Democrats overcome this?
          Installment 3,297 in a continuing series.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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            Yeah, what are Ezra Klein’s bona fides anyway?Report

            • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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              This part made me chuckle:

              The Trumpist Republican Party needs to be politically discredited through repeated losses;

              “Needs to be discredited”…NEEDS TO BE, future tense!

              4 years of raging corruption and graft- Not discredited!
              400,000 Americans dead through staggering incompetence and depraved indifference- Not discredited!

              A violent attack on Congress intended to assassinate the heads of Congress and overthrow a legitimate election? Not discredited!

              No, at present, according to Ezra, the Republican Party has credit, and is considered every bit as worthy and respectable as the Democrats .

              But a single misstep by the Biden administration?
              DISCREDITED! Unworthy of governance!
              And they deserve it!

              Oh, and don’t bother to ask, “Discredited in whose eyes, exactly?” Who is Ezra speaking for, who will make this judgement? Does Ezra have his finger on the pulse of Real Americans somewhere, who have offered this insight?Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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                I imagine that Ezra is speaking for, to some extent, the New York Times and its target audience.

                He’s also speaking on behalf of what his original vision of Vox was.

                And, at his core, there’s a nut of “the wonky progressive policy guy”.

                If I had to guess.Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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                Ezra is speaking for the target audience of the New York Times, really?
                Do you think the target audience of the New York Times is going to surge to Trump in 2024 if Biden fails to follow Ezra’s advice?Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
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                Oh, I’m not thinking about 2024, Chip.

                I’m just thinking about 2022 and what might be done to prevent the House and/or Senate from flipping to the Republicans.

                Maybe nothing could be done. That’s certainly true.

                But if there *WERE* a path to keeping both, I’d like to know what that path would be.

                And, unfortunately, figuring out what that path might be involves thinking about it.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Chip Daniels
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                I don’t think much of the article but I think you’re reading incorrectly and uncharitably.

                Read plainly Ezra’s point is concrete. The GOP needs to be discredited by multiple losses in consecutive cycles. The people it would be discredited with are activists and politicians in and associated with the GOP. People who view the GOP and what it is now as an avenue to political success, policy movement and victory.

                It’s a cynical assertion really- morality, patriotism, set that aside- what will really make a political party change course and change tune? Losing. Losing repeatedly. Losing over and over until they adjust tactics, ideologies and behaviors to stop losing.

                And he’s right.Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to North
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                Well yes of course in that reading “discredited” doesn’t actually mean anything other than “Crap, this corruption, incompetence and race-bating doesn’t work anymore!”

                And yes, he’s right that nothing but electoral failure will teach them that lesson.

                But as ever with Murc’s Law, it ignores the massive elephant in the room, which is why does America always have its voting finger hovering over the Raging Incompetence Staggering Corruption Racist Party button?

                According to Ezra’s own analysis, the Republican Party doesn’t need to do anything to earn votes.

                Taken literally the entire Republican party can just go on a 2 year holiday and go radio silent, and it would have absolutely no impact on the 2022 election results.

                If they cooperate and compromise?
                Makes no difference!
                If they obstruct and confront?
                Doesn’t matter!
                If they offer wonderful proposals?
                Nah, won’t change a thing!
                If they promise to rape and torture puppies on air?
                Nope!

                Nothing, absolutely nothing whatsoever will have any effect on the 2022 election except…what Democrats do.

                Turn this around:
                “Ron Desantis is governor of Florida; Unless he makes immediate and visible improvement in the lives of Floridians, the Florida Republican Party will lose control of the Legislature in 2022!”

                Is this claim believable?Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Chip Daniels
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                Perhaps it is outrageous that the electorate expects the Democratic Party to have administrative experience, accomplish policy changes and make their lives better while they expect the GOP to accomplish little beyond gibbering and signaling unintelligibly to their elderly angry base. That appears to be the reputation the two parties are assuming now days. I can’t muster much outrage over it. If the pattern becomes advancement and improvement under Democrats paired by incoherent gibbering pauses that fail to turn the clock back under GOP interregnums that’s a pattern, I can’t find it in myself to hate.

                All that being said… this subject is somewhat beyond the scope of what Ezra said in his, in my opinion rather mendacious, article.Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to North
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                says:

                Hong Kong Protestors, Here’s How To Lose Your Democracy in 2021; And Deserve It

                Alexander Navalny, Here’s How To Lose Your Struggle For Human Rights in 2021; And Deserve ItReport

              • Avatar North in reply to Chip Daniels
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                Happily we’re starting much further ahead than their situations.Report

        • Avatar Brandon Berg in reply to Jaybird
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          Huh. Turns out that the solution for the unusual set of circumstances in which we now find ourselves is to do exactly what Ezra Klein has wanted to do all along. What an amazing and fortuitous coincidence!Report

      • Avatar JS in reply to North
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        Interestingly enough, it appears Schumer wants the threat of removing the filibuster. Per reporting today, Mitch wanted the nuclear option “off the table” as part of the Senate Rules, and Schumer wasn’t having it — pretty openly saying the GOP would throttle everything if he did that.

        So while I think it’d take something pretty drastic to get Manchin’s vote (which would be the deciding vote, most likely), both Mitch and Schumer think Manchin’s vote is gettable under the right circumstances.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to JS
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          Oh sure, I agree. You don’t unilaterally say filibuster elimination is off the table- that’s flat out inviting Cocaine Mitch to go back to snorting his cocaine.

          But as a practical matter you aren’t going to get rid of it- because those moderate Senators who’s votes you’d need to get to the 50% threshold are the Senators who the filibuster empowers and protects. Hell, I’d be surprised if Schumer could whip up 45 votes to eliminate the filibuster for normal business or normal proposals.

          Now, maybe, if there’s some absolutely unambiguous policy that the voters are absolutely massively in favor of and there’s a burning need for it and Mitch is filibustering it, shoots a baby on the Senate floor, says “whatcha gonna do punk” and puts a cigarette out in Manchins’ eye, then yeah Manchin might vote to abolish the filibuster. Short of that? Let’s be real.Report

          • Avatar JS in reply to North
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            says:

            Well right now, Mitch holding onto his leadership post despite not being the majority leader by outright threatening to filibuster the Senate Rules is…..a real high risk play.

            Give it a few more days, and I suspect Schumer will have 50 votes to nuke the filibuster for Senate Rules at least.

            It’s either that, or allow Mitch to dictate terms that mean everyone might as well go home for two years.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to JS
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              says:

              Schumer isn’t going to let Mitch dictate rules and, alas, Mitch is not going to hold out long enough to unite Schumers caucus in favor of abolishing the filibuster. If Mitch held out long enough Schumer assuredly would abolish the filibuster (Manchin wants his gavel damnit) but I have no doubt that the evil canny son of a *cough* isn’t going to push it that far.

              This is classic Mitch 2009 behavior. He’s already started falling back to his old program. It’s all about delay, delay delay. He just wants to slow, hobble, paralyze proceedings and try and run out the clock. He’s testing to see what temperature the waters are.

              I hope to God(ess?) that he overreaches. I certainly hope no one will fall for his tricks this time. Certainly no one will spend a year chasing votes he’ll never give.Report

      • Avatar Michael Cain in reply to North
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        says:

        There at least reports that McConnell is telling Schumer, “Equal number of Republicans and Democrats on all committees, and a guarantee that Republicans can bring a bill to the floor in the case of a tie, or we’ll filibuster the procedural votes.” Manchin has finally got his committee chairmanship after waiting six years. I think he can be sold on dumping the filibuster on procedural votes. And eventually go along on other specific things like pandemic relief.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to Michael Cain
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          says:

          If Mitch filibusters the procedural votes with the Dems in the mood they’re in and with Trump freshly out of office then he’s finally OD’d on cocaine and has lost his mind. He could loose in that scenario! God(ess?) let him be dumb enough to try!Report

        • Avatar Andrew Donaldson in reply to Michael Cain
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          says:

          It is always going to be the answer here, equal number on committees with D chairs. It’s just a matter on whatever concession Mitch gets from Schumer to get it in writing.Report

          • Avatar JS in reply to Andrew Donaldson
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            says:

            “It is always going to be the answer here, equal number on committees with D chairs. It’s just a matter on whatever concession Mitch gets from Schumer to get it in writing.”

            He already got that concession. The sticking point is Mitch wants the nuclear option completely banned, or he’ll filibuster the whole rules. He’s already GOT the same power-sharing arrangement as last time. He wants to make sure the filibuster can’t be killed.

            Even Manchin can see exactly why Mitch wants that hammer removed from the toolbox.Report

        • Avatar JS in reply to Michael Cain
          Ignored
          says:

          “Equal number of Republicans and Democrats on all committees, and a guarantee that Republicans can bring a bill to the floor in the case of a tie, or we’ll filibuster the procedural votes”

          That’s not quite correct. Those are the terms Schumer and Mitch have already agreed on.

          Mitch is threatening to filibuster the rules change if it doesn’t ALSO include removing the nuclear option totally.

          Which even Manchin sees as “So if we do it your way, we might as well recess for two years?”Report

  4. Avatar Marchmaine
    Ignored
    says:

    “This administration, staffed up with plenty of Obama and Clinton-era veterans, knows how to wield power and aren’t going to waste a second in doing so.”

    Personnel is policy.

    Biden is Hope and Change without the Hope and Change.

    But I agree with both your negative assessment of Trump (you can’t do anything without building the supporting policy infrastructure of people, institutions and stakeholders) and positive assessment of Biden (He has the well worn infrastructure to work with).

    I’m agnostic on whether he will ‘accomplish’ anything of significance … other than not being Trump… and maybe a little pessimistic given your observation quoted first that what ever he does accomplish is pre-written and only sets the stage for disaffection from the left and right alike.

    Surprise me Joe Biden.Report

    • Avatar Kazzy in reply to Marchmaine
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      says:

      This is my (likely poorly informed) sense as well. I was going to quote that same line. I’m not an expert on Biden by any means but he strikes me as a “professional politician”… for better and for worse. He’s been around the block so many times and he knows how it all works. I imagine he’s going to be a President closer to the mold of Clinton or one of the Bushes. I think he’ll probably be pretty boring. I don’t really know what he is going to do policy wise, but I imagine he’ll quickly become less of a figure than Obama and certainly less than Trump. Which is probably a good thing. Rolling back the Presidency would be a good thing. By design or by accident, I imagine there is a decent chance of that happening with Biden.Report

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