The PKK Puzzle

The overthrow of the psychotic Syrian dictator, Bashar Al-Assad, seems to have garnered little notice from the American public outside legacy media outlets. The left is crushed to see President Barack Obama’s vision of an Iranian dominated Levant has failed spectacularly. They want to forget they spent 16 years defending and supporting a stupid and destructive plan.

The right doesn’t know what to think because they’ve been fed a steady diet of Russian misinformation for 5 years and only seem to care that the revolution, that struggled for 14 years and took Damascus in 12 days, is led by a self-proclaimed Al-Qaeda militant, Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani. They don’t know what to make of the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) or that Jolani has relinquished control and promised to disband his group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra. For now the group goes by the name Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.

Simply put, America doesn’t actually care.

The Problem

A [Syrian National Army] capture of Kurdish areas like Kobani risks triggering ethnically motivated violence and upsetting Syria’s current relative stability.

Both political sides in America are resolved to believe this was some kind CIA/neocon regime-change coup.

The reality is the CIA was caught off guard by the toppling of Assad and likely got their asses chewed by Washington DC. They didn’t know how to react to the fact that Jolani kept this quiet while being so disciplined and wise. He went from Aleppo to Damascus in 12 days with minimal skirmishes. He was even smarter by allowing the American-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) to enter Damascus first.

That reconciliation set in motion actions by the US military based in Eastern Syria. Once contact had been established via the FSA, America “helped” stabilize the situation by eliminating the Islamic State elements that would look to collect the $10 million bounty on the supposedly reformed jihadist, Jolani. Also, neutralizing those who would see Jolani as “not Islamic enough”. Now, the US is scrambling to come up with a strategy to mitigate the other destabilizing factors in Syria.

The biggest cloud looming involves the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A Kurdish communist terror group, the PKK and their Syrian partners the People’s Protection Unit (YPG) have been warring with Ankara for decades. Their extremist past with Turkey and particular brand of keeping order complicates the fragile peace. This group has been around since the Cold War. The PKK worked with Russia, Iran and both Assad regimes. The middle eastern Maoist themselves were once on the Designated Terror Organization list. The Kurdish communists are Turkey’s number one security concern. When Obama decided to utilize the PKK to establish the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), he was warned about the complex baggage that would come with it. In short, Obama pissed Turkish President Recep Erdogan off to no end. That’s another post, though.

The Play

Now we are tasked with cleaning up Obama’s mistakes. That’s the job in Syria now. Find a way to maintain stability, satisfy Ankara’s concerns, and retain our posture towards the Global War on Terror and Iran’s maligned regional behavior.

That is easier said than done. The option to complete those 3 objectives is complicated and limited. The play in front of the US is to negotiate through the FSA with the SIG. They can convince the new transitional government to issue a legal warrant for the PKK/YPG leaders. Do it by the law and like a real government. It’s a perfect opportunity for the new government to demonstrate they can, in fact, govern.

Even when the elements, both Kurdish and Arab, of the SDF who want national reconciliation remove themselves from the PKK orbit, the PKK will likely revert to insurgency mode. This is the justification for Ankara to use the Syrian National Army (SNA) mercenaries and amass their troops along the Syrian border. It is possible the mixture of former FSA elements in the SNA could be convinced to defect and recognize SIG as the governing authority in their held territories. While an option with a high upside at little cost, the efforts would be too interpersonal, unreliable and would take too long for a time-sensitive issue.

The presence and aggression of the SNA is at odds with America’s ultimate goal of treating Syria like a state-actor. Those mercenaries are not under a recognized military flag. They’re a hired mix of old FSA elements, thugs, drug dealers and Islamists. They will cause a bloodbath if Ankara does not keep them on a leash. Analysts are correct in laughing at the fears of the United States bombing Turkey. It’s true, the U.S. won’t. But at the same time, the U.S. doesn’t recognize the SNA as a state-actor under a Turkish flag. The US sees them no differently than Wagner Mercenaries the American forces slaughtered in Deir Ezzor, Syria in 2017.

The U.S. would rather not engage the SNA but everyone is acutely aware the Americans are more than capable. But more importantly are they willing to do so if the occasion arises? It appears they are. with chatter of increasing U.S. troops in Syria. Which is not what the American people want.

It would be much better to allow SDF elements committed to reconciliation to be the one to disarm the PKK/YPG. This makes it less likely to turn into a bloody siege and the United States always reserves the right to change its position on a non-state actor, which means America could be willing to aid in the pacification of the PKK/YPG.

This process allows the SIG to demonstrate to all Syrians that Damascus can work with the government east of the Euphrates river. Having the SIG issue warrants and letting the SDF disarm them is the most stable way to resolve this situation. It will take creativity and compromise to achieve it but it stops Ankara from sprinting across the border and punishing civilians and children forced to become soldiers.

The global indictment of the PKK is justified. Collective punishment for an entire ethnic community is not. It is a bad decision that Obama made in a difficult time. “Abandoning the Kurds” is not an option as they continue to be valiant and reliable partners in the mission to destroy the Islamic State. Helping them demonstrate to their fellow Syrians that they also want reconciliation and good governance should now be the American mission. Believe.