On this day in 1883, Railroads began using “Time Zones”.
There’s a phenomenon where someone writes an essay about this or that but someone else wants to discuss something that has not yet made it to the front page.
This is unfair to everybody involved. It’s unfair to the guy who wrote the original essay because, presumably, he wants to talk about his original essay. It’s unfair to the guy who wants to talk about his link because it looks like he’s trying to change the subject. It’s unfair to the people who go to the comments to read up on the thoughts of the commentariat for the original essay and now we’re talking about some other guy’s links.
So!
The intention is to have a new one of these every week. If you want to talk about a link, post it here! Or, heck, use it as an open thread.
And, if it rolls off, we’ll make a new one. With a preamble just like this one.
Welp. Joe and Mika have announced that they went out to Mar-a-Lago to re-open communication lines with Trump.
There are a number of various theories behind this.
The one that makes sense to me is that ratings have cratered. I don’t know whether it was Joe/Mika’s idea or the higher-ups’ but “we get paid a lot and if we can’t bring in numbers, they’ll bring in someone who can” is a fairly straightforward calculus.Report
And the media wonders why no one trusts them.
Cowards.Report
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/17/haitian-immigrants-springfield-ohio-trump-election
Haitian Immigrants are fleeing Sprignfield.Report
Trump confirms plan to use state militias/military to oversee mass deportations: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-confirms-plan-declare-national-emergency-military-mass/story?id=115963448Report
Police State anyone?Report
Tracing Woodgrains has a pretty good take:
Personally, I think that the omnicause is a problem but it’s also held by the only folks in the coalition that know how to reward friends and punish enemies (at the cost of also punishing “enemies”).
But the downside is that punishing 80% friends will, at the margins, create 70% friends. And then 60% friends.
And then you’ve got to deal with the whole “swing voter thing” and if you haven’t picked up more friends in your tent, then all you’ve done is done a better job of rewarding friends by making the VIP part of the club even more exclusive (and, thus, “better”).Report
I’m sure what the Democrats need is more right wing takes from people who can’t stand them. “Why not just be the Republican Party-lite? I mean, it’s failed every time, but if you want swing voters, the key is to not distinguish yourself from the other party.”Report
You’re still looking at it from the vantage point of left vs right.
Trump didn’t win because he tacked right.
He tacked populist.
If going a bit more populist will betray the core lefties, then you might already be in a place where you’re better off moving away from.Report
In a way. The natural rejoinder to that though is to ask whether what Trump and the Republicans are likely to do to Medicaid, food stamps, etc. really constitutes ‘populism’ in any meaningful way.
The question for Democrats is how they’ve allowed themselves to become so obsessed with niche causes and groups so tiny and marginalized they might not even exist that they can no longer communicate with the people they’re supposed to be sticking up for.Report
“We’re going to stop giving EBT to illegals”.
Populist or not populist?Report
Definitely populist! The question I’m asking though is whether the material benefit to the marginal citizen of doing that outweighs the loss of them or some family member being kicked off their health insurance. The math to that I would think is pretty obvious given that the EBT is almost certainly being paid for by someone else (i.e. upper middle class and above). And to be clear I’m saying this as someone who thinks illegal aliens shouldn’t get EBT.Report
There are two types of “populist.” One type of populist seeks government help for the down and out. Another is more interested in working out resentments against folks not like themselves. Pick your poison and you have your answer.Report
I’m just amazed at how much every commentator thinks what “swing voters” actually want just happens to be what the commentator wants.Report
Can I use polls?
Because, seriously, I have *NOT* argued that The People want weed rescheduled and DST to end forever.
Though, quite honestly, I believe that they do.Report
I mean, I think they want medicare for all, too, based on polls, but I imagine I’m cherry picking polls, even if unconsciously.Report
Here’s Pew Research from September.
Health Care is at the top of the list for Harris Supporters (followed by the economy and abortion).
Does that mean “Medicare for All”? Off the top of my head, I’d guess that it doesn’t but is more of a “I want the iron triangle to not exist anymore” but I’m cynical like that.
But, sure, let’s turn that into “that’s what they want: Medicare for All”.
They also seem to have strong opinions on the economy and, given the election, a couple of other things that the Democratic Establishment did a good job of waving away.Report
“Personally, I think that the omnicause is a problem but it’s also held by the only folks in the coalition that know how to reward friends and punish enemies (at the cost of also punishing “enemies”).”
And I think one problem is that for a lot of people, punishing enemies is the reward they’re looking for.Report
That’s not really how I read it. The omnicause adherents are a combination of 2 groups. The first is that small cadre of permanent activist true believers that are a normal part of any democracy (you know, the ones that ran the campus food co-op), some of whom might actually have some sort of harder Marxist or leftist commitments that are in tension with their fellow travelers and the Democratic party more generally. They’ll be enthusiastically languishing in some odd, ineffectual non-profit no one has ever heard of for the rest of their lives no matter what, and they’d be doing that no matter who is in charge among the Democrats.
You then have a much larger, more malleable group of over achievers chasing a zeitgeist. They were and remain the upwardly mobile enforcers. But the zeitgeist is changing and their principles were never that strong or coherent to begin with, to say nothing of the tension between their stated beliefs and their goals in life. They’re the Biden staffers that staged a walk out over Gaza but then walked back in a few hours later fully expecting to keep their prestigious jobs that they conspicuously did not resign from.
Which isnt to say they haven’t engaged in what is IMO the ugliest component of human nature, that being cruelty justified by self righteousness. But for them it’s a means to an end, that being their personal advancement in the meritocracy, not an end in itself.Report
Dr. Oz was nominated to run the Office of Medicaid and MedicareReport
Sean Duffy to be Secretary of Transportation. We are seeing an administration of cranks, hacks, thieves, and washed out celebrities develop.Report
Which, very ironically, is good news in these benighted times.Report
Linda McMahon is to be Secretary of Education.Report
“The 80’s called.”
“Well, then. I should call them back.”Report
In an administration that won campaigning on a myriad policies I think are awful, the appointment of cranks, hacks, thieves, and washed out celebrities is a positive thing. All I want for Christmas is the Trump admin flailing around ineffectually for two years until disgusted voters landslide the Dems into Congress in 2026.Report
A Project 2025 guy is going to head the FCC and use it to conduct witch hunts against Trump’s critics. These cranks, hacks, thieves, and washed out celebrities can cause wreckage beyond imagination.Report
Entirely possible but less likely than with an administration of no-nonsense dedicated and capable fanatics.Report
The optimistic version is theoretically they will all squabble with each other, potentially be easily outsmarted, and not get much done or do much damage.
The pessimistic version is that incompetents and hacks can still do a hell of a lot of damage, they will demoralize enough long term civil servants, make them quit, and the positions will be filled with malicious actors and/or incompetents who will cause more damage, and if/when Democrats manage to regain control of the executive, it will be hard to rebuild it all.
Other pessimistic outlooks is that the Project 2025 staff wants these incompetents in charge because they are maximalist-bolsheviks.
TL/DR, don’t assume clowns are harmless.Report
I’m not assuming they’re harmless; avoiding harm was not the option the electorate chose for us. The question is which group is likely to cause less harm: the grifters, cranks and hacks or the unphotogenic driven fanatics. I think the former group is the group more likely to ineptly cause less harm through sheer ineffectualness. If you want to lay out a brief for the latter group go for it.Report
Objection. Assumes facts not in evidence.Report
There is also the fact of this emergent pattern:
Hegseth: Multiple affairs and now information that he paid off a woman to dismiss a sexual assault charge.
Gaetz: Almost certainly paid a 17 year old for sex. We know he paid other young women for sex.
McMahon: Stood by her husband as he was credibly accused of sexual harassment and potentially rape.
Trump’s first run and admin were basically revenge for Obama making fun of him.
Trump’s third run and admin are going to be revenge at Biden and women especially E. Jean Carroll and anyone else who accused him of sexual assault. Apparently Hegseth interviewed three times in the first Trump term for Veteran’s Affairs but was rejected because of his extramarital affairs.Report
“Who’s the Vice President? Jerry Lewis?! And I suppose Jack Benny is the Secretary of the Treasury!”Report
I wonder how much overlap there is between people who think that the corporate income tax cut in the TCJA was a giveaway to the rich and people who think the stock market hitting record highs is proof that Bidenomics works.Report
two things can be true simultaneously and not maliciously.Report
Welp, an ICBM got used in Dnipro.
Don’t worry, it had a conventional (non-nuclear) warhead.Report
Now *there’s* a demonstration. Think Vlad’s crazy enough to do it?Report
I think we are probably in the final posturing phase before Trump takes over the presidency.Report
Over in 1 day!Report
Heh all deals can be done in a day if one side is willing to completely roll over.Report
I hope that there was a “by the way, this isn’t a nuke” call on the red phone first.Report
It was an IRBM. Still nuclear capable, but not quite as scary if you’re not in Eastern Europe.Report
Yeah that was sort of like using an armored presidential limo to deliver a pizza (but only if the limo is blown up upon delivery). I dunno wtf Putin is thinking on this except maybe it’s some kind of posturing tactic for Trump?Report
I could see it as a statement: “In case you’re wondering if our intermediate and long-range Nuclear deterrent still functions in post-Soviet Russia…”Report
That’s actually pretty plausible. Lots of our stuff may be broke but the one thing that really matters isn’t.Report
Then show me the mushroom cloud. Russia has lots of open space. They’ve pulled out of the test-ban treaty. They have lots of reasons to saber rattle.
All they’d have to do is have one test and every earth quake sensor in the world would confirm that they still have nukes and aren’t bluffing.
They have no reason to not test and every reason to test…
…unless they can’t.Report
Maybe. But that’s a hell of a thing for us to gamble on. Even a nuclear missile that fails to detonate properly could be a huge mess. Or if they know some may be faulty it could cause them to fire multiple in hopes that at least one works.Report
Every day that goes past without a mushroom cloud showing they’re serious makes the gamble less of a gamble.
They would lose nothing by a test and gain a lot. Far as I can tell, the only reason to not test is if they can’t.Report
There are also risks in giving in to Russia’s demands. There are well established international norms about what counts as a valid reason to nuke someone and providing arms to your enemy isn’t on that list. If we let people have whatever they want just because they threaten to use nukes, we’re encouraging nuclear brinkmanship and handing geopolitical power to people who already have far too much of it.
Refusing to take the threat seriously may be the less risky course.Report
I am relatively hawkish on Ukraine since they proved their willingness to fight for their independence. Just also clear eyed about the risks.Report
Seems plausible to me.Report
If they really wanted to prove they still had nukes they should test one.
They could test as many as they wanted until one of them worked and then they could claim they only tested one.
That they haven’t done so STRONGLY suggests they don’t have them anymore. The budget for their maintenance was stolen and they’ve gone bad.
Nuke maintenance is very expensive, they’re never tested, and no one would notice if it’s not done. They can’t even do maintenance on things that are very high profile.Report
There’s also a Test Ban Treaty, and violating that would probably have significant consequences (as in “China might stop selling them US electronics parts” level of consequences)Report
Russia Withdraws Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
In an unprecedented move, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially rescinded Russia’s ratification of the treaty banning nuclear test explosions anywhere in the world Nov. 2.
https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2023-11/nuclear-disarmament-monitor
That was Nov 2, 2023. That was saber rattling because we’re backing Ukraine. So there’s no reason to not test a nuke and every reason to do so.
Unless of course, he can’t test a nuke because all of his went stale a few years after they stole the maintenance needed to keep them functional.
We spend $10B a year keeping ours functional.
They don’t have the ability to upgrade their flagship aircraft carrier which has been openly sitting in dry dock for years. They don’t have the ability to get military grade tires for their military trucks. They don’t have the ability to do basic maintenance on anything.
On a system that broken and corrupt, they really spent Billions on nukes they’d never use and never test? Someone pocketed the money and lied about how functional their nukes are.Report
Withdrawing from the treaty wouldn’t prohibit other countries from taking actions; the treaty is self-binding, but breaking the convention does not prohibit other nations from acting.
But to your main point; Russia may *also* demonstrate that the nukes themselves work in some fashion. But honestly, it’s much more important to demonstrate that the delivery mechanisms work than the nukes themselves.
Gambling that the nukes are all duds? That’s just a bad gamble if the delivery systems work.Report
That ethics report on Gaetz must have been really nasty.Report
Yep. Paying for sex with escorts probably only scratches the surface.Report
Gaetz dropped out of the running for AG on his own accord.Report
There may be hope for the younger generations.
https://www.thefp.com/p/yale-students-jealous-of-conservative-peers?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=emailReport
That’s much healthier than an attitude that sees it as unfair that people who work out and jog are more physically fit.Report