From USPoliticsPoll: Eric Adams Projected to Win Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor’s Race

by · June 22, 2021

Jaybird

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15 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:
    June 22, 2021 at 11:03 pm

    An excellent point:

    Report

  2. Saul Degraw says:
    June 23, 2021 at 9:58 am

    This one seems both easily correct and possibly premature. New York election officials estimated that absentee ballots would make up 15-20 percent of the votes and those have ten days to come in. Likewise, there is still the issue of ranked choice voting. I suppose it is not implausible that there are Wiley and Garcia voters who placed Adams as second choice but it seems unlikely based on the general base of both.

    That being said, there is certainly a disconnect between the “anyone but Adams” faction and the “Adams is our first choice” faction.Report

    • JS in reply to Saul Degraw says:
      June 23, 2021 at 5:49 pm

      Ranked choice doesn’t invalidate statistics or demographics. If you’ve got a representative sample of ballots, ranked choice or not, you can project off of that.

      I mean the devil is in “representative sample of ballots”, of course, but that’s the same issue in projecting any election from a partial count. In general, the statisticians are pretty good at placing it into “i’ve seen enough” and “too close to call” buckets.Report

  3. Saul Degraw says:
    June 23, 2021 at 12:07 pm

    I’m interested in how the organization handled accounting for rank choice voting in its prediction model.

    There is a simple truth that abolish the police is not a popular message in many minority communities especially with older people of color. There is a some evidence that the phrase did hurt Biden among older minority voters in 2020. Of course, lots of activists are wedded to the phrase and seem to resent when you tell them that it shoots them in the foot.Report

    • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:
      June 23, 2021 at 5:34 pm

      There is a simple truth that abolish the police is not a popular message in many minority communities especially with older people of color. There is a some evidence that the phrase did hurt Biden among older minority voters in 2020. Of course, lots of activists are wedded to the phrase and seem to resent when you tell them that it shoots them in the foot.

      Well then, this news from Buffalo should be very interesting to watch in that context, since its a flavor of defund the police without the slogan:

      Walton’s platform outlines plans to tackle a local affordable housing crisis and declare Buffalo a sanctuary city for immigrants, which limits a local jurisdiction’s cooperation with federal enforcement o f immigration law. And also the intention to convert the city’s fleet of public vehicles to electric cars in an effort to address climate change.

      One of her key proposals foreshadows sweeping reforms to “public safety”, focusing on harm prevention, restorative justice and the root causes of crime instead of punitive action, according to her campaign platform.

      Under her watch, police will no longer respond to most mental health calls and will stop enforcing low-level drug possession offenses. She also intends to require unpaid leave for officers under investigation for police brutality, among other measures.

      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/23/india-walton-socialist-candidate-buffalo-mayor-primary-raceReport

      • Jaybird in reply to Philip H says:
        June 23, 2021 at 5:41 pm

        Might be of interest.Report

        • Philip H in reply to Jaybird says:
          June 23, 2021 at 6:26 pm

          I know Buffalo very well. My ex-wife lives west of there and my older daughters with her largely grew up there. Used to have custody hearings and the like in downtown buffalo at the Erie County Courthouse.

          Its a mildly blue city in a very red part of the state. Which is why this will be an interesting turn, since she is likely to have a lot of city support and county opposition to her plans.Report

  4. Jaybird says:
    June 29, 2021 at 8:58 pm

    Wait wait wait wait!

    Hold your horses!

    Report

  5. Jaybird says:
    June 29, 2021 at 10:08 pm

    Jeez Louise.

    Report

  6. InMD says:
    June 30, 2021 at 5:55 am

    You know how we have occasional conversations at OT about other (better) ways we could run elections? We should stop. We aren’t competent enough to run any of them.Report

  7. Jaybird says:
    July 6, 2021 at 7:18 pm

    Okay. Here’s where we are now.

    Report

  8. North says:
    July 6, 2021 at 8:29 pm

    Yeah… ranked choice voting didn’t get a scintillating debut with this mess. Ugh.Report

  9. Jaybird says:
    July 6, 2021 at 8:50 pm

    New York Times has called it, kinda. They’re leaving themselves an out, is what I’m saying.

    Report

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