From USPoliticsPoll: Eric Adams Projected to Win Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor’s Race

15 thoughts on “From USPoliticsPoll: Eric Adams Projected to Win Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor’s Race”

1. An excellent point:

   Betting against the voting choice of Black women 45+ in a Dem primary in NYC or the U.S. for that matter is a bad proposition.

   — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 23, 2021

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2. This one seems both easily correct and possibly premature. New York election officials estimated that absentee ballots would make up 15-20 percent of the votes and those have ten days to come in. Likewise, there is still the issue of ranked choice voting. I suppose it is not implausible that there are Wiley and Garcia voters who placed Adams as second choice but it seems unlikely based on the general base of both.

   That being said, there is certainly a disconnect between the “anyone but Adams” faction and the “Adams is our first choice” faction.Report

   1. Ranked choice doesn’t invalidate statistics or demographics. If you’ve got a representative sample of ballots, ranked choice or not, you can project off of that.

      I mean the devil is in “representative sample of ballots”, of course, but that’s the same issue in projecting any election from a partial count. In general, the statisticians are pretty good at placing it into “i’ve seen enough” and “too close to call” buckets.Report

3. I’m interested in how the organization handled accounting for rank choice voting in its prediction model.

   There is a simple truth that abolish the police is not a popular message in many minority communities especially with older people of color. There is a some evidence that the phrase did hurt Biden among older minority voters in 2020. Of course, lots of activists are wedded to the phrase and seem to resent when you tell them that it shoots them in the foot.Report

   1. There is a simple truth that abolish the police is not a popular message in many minority communities especially with older people of color. There is a some evidence that the phrase did hurt Biden among older minority voters in 2020. Of course, lots of activists are wedded to the phrase and seem to resent when you tell them that it shoots them in the foot.

      Well then, this news from Buffalo should be very interesting to watch in that context, since its a flavor of defund the police without the slogan:

      Walton’s platform outlines plans to tackle a local affordable housing crisis and declare Buffalo a sanctuary city for immigrants, which limits a local jurisdiction’s cooperation with federal enforcement o f immigration law. And also the intention to convert the city’s fleet of public vehicles to electric cars in an effort to address climate change.

      One of her key proposals foreshadows sweeping reforms to “public safety”, focusing on harm prevention, restorative justice and the root causes of crime instead of punitive action, according to her campaign platform.

      Under her watch, police will no longer respond to most mental health calls and will stop enforcing low-level drug possession offenses. She also intends to require unpaid leave for officers under investigation for police brutality, among other measures.

      https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/23/india-walton-socialist-candidate-buffalo-mayor-primary-raceReport

      1. Might be of interest.Report

         1. I know Buffalo very well. My ex-wife lives west of there and my older daughters with her largely grew up there. Used to have custody hearings and the like in downtown buffalo at the Erie County Courthouse.

            Its a mildly blue city in a very red part of the state. Which is why this will be an interesting turn, since she is likely to have a lot of city support and county opposition to her plans.Report

4. Wait wait wait wait!

   Hold your horses!

   NYC MAYOR RANKED CHOICE RESULTS ARE UP! (only early + in-person votes, no absentees yet)

   Final Round:
   Eric Adams 51.9%
   Kathryn Garcia 48.9%

   This is a real race folks. The uncounted absentee ballots have the potential to put Garcia over the top.

   — Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) June 29, 2021

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5. Jeez Louise.

   Elections 2.0: Sources tell me the Board of Elections is going back to the drawing board and running corrected ranked-choice numbers tomorrow. About 130,000 “votes” were part of a test-run that were never cleared from a computer.

   — Bob Hardt (@bobhardt) June 30, 2021

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   1. Aaaaaaand it’s official:

      pic.twitter.com/y70z7ZYYgK

      — NYC Board of Elections (@BOENYC) June 30, 2021

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6. You know how we have occasional conversations at OT about other (better) ways we could run elections? We should stop. We aren’t competent enough to run any of them.Report

   1. And that’s why Dominion decided to let Germany handle it!Report

7. Okay. Here’s where we are now.

   BREAKING: Eric Adams leads Kathryn Garcia by more than 8K votes in latest mayoral primary tally https://t.co/Xi1RmTdTKs pic.twitter.com/q0EOjYGhY9

   — 1010 WINS (@1010WINS) July 6, 2021

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8. Yeah… ranked choice voting didn’t get a scintillating debut with this mess. Ugh.Report

9. New York Times has called it, kinda. They’re leaving themselves an out, is what I’m saying.

   Breaking News: Eric Adams won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City, according to The Associated Press, putting him on track to become the second Black mayor in the history of the nation’s largest city. https://t.co/GNbrxPjPn6

   — The New York Times (@nytimes) July 6, 2021

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