From USPoliticsPoll:
BREAKING: We are projecting Eric Adams has won the #nycprimary for Mayor for the Democratic Party. With the nomination, he is certain to win the general election for Mayor in the fall to become the next Mayor of New York City. pic.twitter.com/brTGcIYMZX
— USPoliticsPoll (@PollPolitics) June 23, 2021
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An excellent point:
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This one seems both easily correct and possibly premature. New York election officials estimated that absentee ballots would make up 15-20 percent of the votes and those have ten days to come in. Likewise, there is still the issue of ranked choice voting. I suppose it is not implausible that there are Wiley and Garcia voters who placed Adams as second choice but it seems unlikely based on the general base of both.
That being said, there is certainly a disconnect between the “anyone but Adams” faction and the “Adams is our first choice” faction.Report
Ranked choice doesn’t invalidate statistics or demographics. If you’ve got a representative sample of ballots, ranked choice or not, you can project off of that.
I mean the devil is in “representative sample of ballots”, of course, but that’s the same issue in projecting any election from a partial count. In general, the statisticians are pretty good at placing it into “i’ve seen enough” and “too close to call” buckets.Report
I’m interested in how the organization handled accounting for rank choice voting in its prediction model.
There is a simple truth that abolish the police is not a popular message in many minority communities especially with older people of color. There is a some evidence that the phrase did hurt Biden among older minority voters in 2020. Of course, lots of activists are wedded to the phrase and seem to resent when you tell them that it shoots them in the foot.Report
Well then, this news from Buffalo should be very interesting to watch in that context, since its a flavor of defund the police without the slogan:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/23/india-walton-socialist-candidate-buffalo-mayor-primary-raceReport
Might be of interest.Report
I know Buffalo very well. My ex-wife lives west of there and my older daughters with her largely grew up there. Used to have custody hearings and the like in downtown buffalo at the Erie County Courthouse.
Its a mildly blue city in a very red part of the state. Which is why this will be an interesting turn, since she is likely to have a lot of city support and county opposition to her plans.Report
Wait wait wait wait!
Hold your horses!
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Jeez Louise.
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Aaaaaaand it’s official:
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You know how we have occasional conversations at OT about other (better) ways we could run elections? We should stop. We aren’t competent enough to run any of them.Report
And that’s why Dominion decided to let Germany handle it!Report
Okay. Here’s where we are now.
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Yeah… ranked choice voting didn’t get a scintillating debut with this mess. Ugh.Report
New York Times has called it, kinda. They’re leaving themselves an out, is what I’m saying.
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