In response to your 8:06 comment...

Oscar, you are really "monologuing" here.

I wrote out a response on incentives and instead of addressing what I actually said you create an imaginary discussion with someone ?? who is defending cops who "are not doing their damn jobs because their feelings are hurt". Please reread what I wrote and how incentives matter. Better yet read the original article and how they explained changes in procedures lead to increases in some kinds of crime.

You then go on to state you have "zero patience for men and women who want the power and authority of the badge, but don’t want the responsibility and accountability that goes with it." Any cursory review of my position is that I strongly endorse more accountability. So who are you replying to? Are you just ignoring what I wrote?

And then you really jump the shark, offering that "don’t give me any BS about cops being in a war zone,". Umm. OK. I didn’t and I wasn’t going to give you any such "BS." But thanks for sharing.

Banning chokeholds (Something we all agree on) and holding people accountable (another thing we agree on) is not synonymous with emasculation, SW. Cops have a tough job to do, working with the worst parts of humanity, and we do not want to make them ineffective. Our goal should be to make them more effective and more accountable, agreed?

The original article DM linked to presented various arguments of why certain violent and gun related crimes would go up. I would add that emphasis on not making waves, especially where black suspects are involved is going to lead to fewer stops, fewer confrontations, and more emphasis on other parts of their jobs. It would change how I policed, and not just in ways which society would deem as beneficial.

I would expect mayors, police chiefs and such are changing what they emphasize right now. Less emphasis on arrests and convictions and more emphasis on being a good cop (a good thing) and more emphasis on not getting involved in a confrontation with anyone black (reverse racism on enforcing the law is not a good thing).

And finally, yes, I am sure the criminals and gangs are very well aware of how active and confrontational (vigorous?) the police are in their territories.

On the margin, even if there are no spiteful cops (and there are of course), I would anticipate a less effective police force based upon the current wave of media gotcha that is going on.

I hope that this is a temporary blip until we see real police reform. Reform which will hold cops more accountable and better trained and still hold them accountable for keeping crime to a minimum, especially in those neighborhoods where it is the biggest problem

I agree in general with your recommendations. Seems like the right course of action.

Again, what I disagree with is "emasculating" which means "eliminating their capacity for effective action". I assume when you use the term you are inserting a definition around the lines of "making them less brutal jerks" or something. If that is what the term meant I would even agree with you.

Well said. I agree completely DM.

We started talking about Unintended negative side effects of emasculating cops. My point is that this is a very, very bad thing. It is clearly leading to large spikes in crime, violence, and the additional deaths of black kids. Several orders of magnitude more deaths than ever caused at the hands of cops. After Ferguson, this surge was 100% predictable on the first day of the riots.

Tertiary effects will be further flight of businesses and middle class from said areas and economic ramifications. Again, predictable. Again, bad for these communities.

The trial by video concept wasn’t about riots per say, it was about cops, police chiefs, and mayors etc being tried in public opinion based upon snippets. This will lead to changes in the incentive structure along with the emphasis of not making waves, keeping heads down, and less emphasis on arrests and convictions of sociopathic thugs.

To understand a complex system, we need to follow the incentives. I certainly would offer that incentive structures have been messed up with police for a while, but this is making them worse but in a different way.

We want our cops to be effective at keeping down crime, especially in those areas most prone to out of control crime and violence (many of which are In black neighborhoods). The current emasculation process is the last thing these neighborhoods need.

Sometimes we want to strike out against something which is wrong. That is human nature. But doing so, even when the wallop would have been well deserved, isn’t always best.

And what happens if Chauvin is acquitted or just gets convicted of involuntary manslaughter?

And isn’t this quite likely? Better than 50%?

Rioting needs to be stopped by all responsible institutions ASAP

Emasculation is defined as "to deprive of strength or vigor and the capacity for effective action."

When someone’s job involves dealing with drunken, drug crazed, violent criminals, anarchists, looters and sociopaths, I would suggest that emasculation — taking away their capacity for effective action — is going way too far.

Somewhere between emasculation and business as usual (Coddling?)is a place of effective action. It will require the intellectual honesty to recognize that a huge proportion of the violent encounters will statistically be with that subcategory of Americans who are committing an order of magnitude higher rates of violent crime. It will hold cops accountable for acting professional with repercussions against abuse, dishonesty and covering up malfeasance. No coddling is necessary, nor was it implied in my comments.

Perhaps it involves many of the great ideas you suggested last month. What it doesn’t involve is trial by video news snippet biased by the color or political leanings of the victim/assailant. This way leads to a total mess. And we are currently moving head first into said mess.

This means it is OK to destroy cities and civic health and black lives to teach cops a lesson or something. Can we add a "nana nana poo poo"?

It is easy to do something. It is even easy to do things with good intentions. The art is doing something which leads to good results. Seems like you gave up on this weeks ago.

We need accountability and improved policing, not childish spite.

I don’t care how this works out for Trump. My concern if I lived or worked or employed people in these circus cities, is in law and order. I would demand that my local government assume control of the situation. Absent this I would demand that higher orders step in and fill the vacuum. Calling them stormtroopers is just rhetoric in search of an argument.

Yes, the man is the most incompetent human cancer of modern times. But I demand my property and person be protected by our government institutions. If it was my neighborhood, I would demand he step in. If he fails to do so, I will step in, and that way leads to anarchy, which is probably what the rioters have wanted all along.

Oscar, I think you are grossly oversimplifying how human nature works and ignoring the effects of incentives on behavior.

Even if the police were angels, the incentives have radically changed. They almost certainly feel that nobody has their back. Thus they are exposed, risking criminal prosecution based upon video snippets in the hands of a biased media and political actors who can benefit by sacrificing cops for personal gain. I am amazed that any cop anywhere would feel comfortable even interacting On a confrontational way with a minority. News at 5!

As a manager of very large groups of people, I have found it is essential to understand how incentives work. In the case of cops in these media circus cities, the incentives are to avoid confrontation, and this is going to greatly emasculate their effectiveness (not just limit their abuse).

I (along with many others) predicted an unprecedented crime spike and Increase in black male death rates from the first riot. That is why I oppose this path. It is cancerous to everyone, and most of all to black lives.

And the root cause isn’t cop spite, it is police emasculation (a bad thing) being clothed as police reform (a necessary thing).