commenter-thread

I don't think a President Bernie could mess with the economy much more than Trump has. What would he do? Start a trade war? Been there. What can he do beyond that? Not a ton. Nationalizing the means of production or whatever would require congress. Sure Trump has tried to end run around Congress but so far he hasn't really accomplished anything beyond a bog standard slate of Republican judges and a bog standard Republican deficit financed tax cut on the wealthy.

They didn't take control of the Senate though, so no wave.

As for the 2018 seats being lost? That remains to be seen.

So ya think Trumps gonna flip Colorado then? It is a purple state. Senator Gardner will be awfully relieved.

Hey I'll happily defend that line! I wouldn't say they're hand in glove close but they're a lot closer than the GOP elite vs their voting masses. The GOP base is pretty luke warm on tax cuts and pretty bullish on tax hikes on the rich- their elites and politicians cut taxes no matter what and weight it overwhelmingly in favor of the wealthy. Until Trump the Elites were pretty squishy on immigration, basically the opposite of what their base wanted. I could go on but why bother?

I am not thinking of many issues where the Democratic Party and its elites want the exact opposite of what their voters want. Maybe a given small subgroup on a small subject (Like the arch liberal fringe wants to abolish capitalism but the party doesn't for example) but the majority of their base? I don't see that same rift. That's why the Democratic base doesn't hate their party leaders the way the GOP base hates/hated theirs. Look at Pelosi vs Boehner or Ryan. There's disagreement at times but the vitriol ain't there.

I think if Uncle Bern is running it'll severely test that theory because he has a good number of positions that are both very shabbily rationalized (beyond revolution!) and will really get the attention of certain historically rather swingy constituencies of voters.

And the supposed Bernie turnout sure hasn't shown up in the primaries so far. He's running based on the assumption that youngsters will turn out en masse- historically that's been a good way to lose a national election handily.

I don't agree with his positions and I don't agree with how he argues and campaigns. I think he's way to risky and I think he could cost us the House too. I'll vote for him if I have to but there're a lot better candidates.

By that definition the GOP takeover in 2010 was no wave either and that was the second largest change of seats since Watergate. It's nonsensical, but you do you.

Lack of a wave? It was a huge wave, way past regression to the mean. It was the third largest change of seats since the Watergate era and the 9 million vote spread between the two parties was the largest in history. Yes they lost two senate seats, which is pretty good considering it was the most unfavorable to the Dems Senate map in history as well. The GOP enormously under-performed by getting only 2 seats.

As for Biden, he's my #3 choice but I think it's ludicrous to assert he's simply a default choice. He's got a lot of supporters, especially minorities, who affirmatively support him though I'm not one of them personally.

Yes, both parties have become considerably weaker over the years as they've reformed their processes to include a lot more voter decision making in their nomination process. The GOP basically imploded before Trump in 2016. It remains to be seen if the Dems will do the same before Bernie this year. There are a few differences in degree though:
-The Dems don't have quite the same gap between their party apparatus and their rank and file as the GOP suffers. Democratic leadership and elites generally want the same things as their various voting constituencies; they just disagree on how to get them and to what degree of extremism they want it.
-Also the Dems have a very popular former President who could really swing the races, though it remains to be seen if Obama is willing to actually involve himself in politics. He may elect to simply remain aloof and uninvolved- it’s his very favorite posture. If the GOP’s former President had involved himself in the race it would have been the kiss of death for whomever he supported.

Uh huh. But if the Dems were/are as progressive as you claim they’d never have nominated those forty candidates in the first place.

You can hand wave furiously at Joe Biden all you like but you can’t just assign his supporters to the progressive wing because you have a need to exaggerate how far left the party has moved.

Progressives support Bernie and to a lesser degree Warren. So that puts the progressive contingent of the Democratic Party at somewhere between 27-40% (I personally think it clocks in around 30% which is also around the support the Warren/Bernie candidates have pulled in with actual voting).

I do agree, however, that if Bernie is the nominee it’ll present a major problem for the moderate candidates in their races (and I also think Bernie will lose). Which is why I don’t want Bernie to get the nod.

I'd assume they'll all vote libertarian again. Trumps not going anywhere and that contingent all has deep and probably unchanging reasons not to support the Dems.

That's over complicating it. Sanders and Warren are (mostly) the progressive wing though Warren does have some more centrist and feminist support. But lets throw you a bone and give the progressive wing all their supporters even though Warren is probably 50% centrist. That puts the progressive wing (generously) at 40.1% of the party and the non-progressive wing at 59.9%. If all but one of the moderates and Warren vanished into thin air then Bernie would get crushed. There's plenty of room in the Democratic Party for moderates. In case you forgot they nominated and elected forty some moderates and a big whopping three progressives in 2018.

Piss off online liberals maybe, but real liberals? And enough to pass on voting against Trump? I have serious doubts.
Meanwhile Sanders is promising to take away everyone's health plans and has even less justification about it than Warren did. Somehow I think he loses more centrist votes than the centrists lose Liberals.

All that said, I think you have a point on polarization. But we don't need a wipe out to lose large. RGB is not getting any younger and the conservative wing of the Supreme court is broadcasting pretty clearly that they're hankering to judicially nullify the ACA and Roe vs Wade if the voters put Trump back in office again.

Yeah Bernie's like, last place for peoples' #2 choices. If a bunch of the other candidates dropped out Bernie would get creamed.

I have a sister who is pre-menopause living in the 'States and I'm a gay man, married to a black gay man. Throwing my vote to some entertaining purity candidate is not in my interests.
And while I don't particularily like Bernie nor do I think he'll win I don't feel any need for an iodine bath to vote for him. A President Bernie would accomplish pretty much none of his crazy socialist schemes in the event he somehow won. He'd need Congress and the Senate which those schemes simply wouldn't be able to get through.

Yep, which is why I think that if he somehow "revolutions" himself to a nomination win that (even though I'll vote for him) he'll lose and quite possibly take down the House Majority with him. His entire candidacy is premised on turning out hordes of energized young voters who have, so far, not materialized to support his nomination fight. Why the fish should we expect they'll materialize in the general?

Right now it looks like changing the rules to let Bloomberg into the debate was the cruelest thing the DNC could do to him.

Well a Warren rebound is the best I can hope for since she'd most likely eat into Bernie's campaign if she accomplished it. If the moderate lane is gonna remain fractured a Warren resurgence would be salutary.

Me too. I want to throttle Bloomberg and whatever parasites are urging him into the race so they can enrich themselves off his ego. Fishing idiots; do they WANT Bernie* to be nominated?

*Obligatory note: I will crawl over broken glass to vote Democratic even if Bernie is the nominee.

I'll sit moodily in the corner with you. Biden is doddering and elderly and Pete&Amy spent the whole debate at each others throats. The two of them are literally destroying each other even though, between the three of them, they pretty much are the majority of the party but there's a genuine danger that they're going to cancel each other out and let Bernie slowly walker his way over the finish line with, not a revolution but a fishing plurality. Whereupon he'll probably make Corbyn's performance look like a first place finish at Le Mans.

I sort of expected he'd explode on the launch pad and wish I'd predicted it here for exactly the reason you lay out- he's been surrounded by yes men(and women) almost all his life now. Thank goodness for debates.