Commenter Archive

AvatarComments by Jaybird

On “A Clusterfark in Wisconsin

That Biden is an exceptionally imperfect person for this moment and with every day that passes, I can more easily imagine Trump getting re-elected.

"

Good news! Biden supports the whole "voting in person" thing in Wisconsin!

On “Chill Out: The Story Behind the DC Universe’s Most Important, Anonymous Figure

Apparently, it's not an original alias. It's an alias Bruce Wayne adopted after the "real" Matches died (accidentally! by his own hand!) in an altercation with the Batman (like, back in the 70's).

"

In the television show, they had "Joe Chill" be an alias for Patrick "Matches" Malone. Matches was a hit man who got hired by Hugo Strange to kill this lady and this guy in an alley and he did. He had no idea who they were and didn't really care.

So I think we just get to yell "REMIX" really loudly as if it were '99.

On “Here Comes the Pain, Shared and Otherwise

I know that I am in an enviable situation. I am currently able to work from home and while I don't know what July will look like if we're still on lockdown, I am confident that the next month or two will be okay.

So if things turn around soon, we move away from a "stay at home" back to a "social distancing" framework, I'll be okay (and a huge number of my acquaintances will also be okay... they telecommute anyway or they do work that transitions really easily to telecommuting work). This will be a crazy thing that happened and rebuilding will consist of "okay, we're pretty much obliged to eat out at our favorite restaurants for the next month".

And this will be yet another example of privilege providing padding to upper middle class kinda people.

"

Given the number of people I've seen clamoring for the lockdown to be lifted, I'm not sure that the trust you're talking about has gone anywhere.

Maybe if things get bad, it'll get dinged up.

"

I've been to restaurants where you're practically on top of the people at the neighboring table. "Intimate", I think the term is. These places will have to go from having 2X tables to having X tables under a social distancing regime. Maybe less. That will change things.

The AirBNB situation strikes me as having popped a bubble. I imagine that rents will change for housing, at least. The rent situation for commercial is opaque to me. There are a handful of storefronts in downtown Colorado Springs that have been empty for *YEARS*. I can't comprehend that it would be cheaper to not rent these spaces than to lower the rent you'd want to charge a tenant. (I can see foregoing a month instead of changing rates. I cannot imagine foregoing YEARS.)

I'd guess that there are some seriously effed up incentives there.

As for trust... the question is "trust for whom?" I can see small communities gaining trust with each other. I can see them very much distrusting smooth-talking strangers who come into the community from outside of it.

"

For me, it all matters when we turn the corner. If we turn the corner on, oh, May 1st? Okay, that's a pipe dream. June 1st? and then "everything can get back to normal", then, for me, this was just a crazy few months. Hey, remember when we were on lockdown in 2020? Man, remember the toilet paper thing? Man, remember all the spaghetti sauce we made? That was crazy! Look at this little scar on my left arm! That vaccine scar is like my own personal moon landing!

And we'll be lucky to talk about how there were only plans for mass graves in Central Park and how we, seriously, dodged a bullet and how we need to move manufacturing back to the US of at least medical equipment, yes, even if it means tariffs.

But I also think about our J-I-T Supply Chain and what happens if June 1st isn't somewhere around where we know we've turned the corner. And, after that, things get dark.

On “Andrew Yang, Bringer of Pestilence

Well, Andrew Yang wrote the tweet that the original post is about.

Marianne Williamson wrote an amusing response to the tweet (that the original post is about).

HTH
HAND

"

Relevant:

On “Carnage: 6.6 Million in Initial Jobless Claims, 10 Million Two Week Total

(I kinda started my lockdown on the 12th. Maribou started hers a few days before that.)

"

Short-resilient networks have disparate impact and are worse than nationalist: they're localist.

Capital is now unbound by borders. And if they don't like the laws where they are, they will just move to Somalia.

"

In the real world, people are champing the bit to go back out to have gatherings and it's barely been a month of the lockdown.

I don't even know that we've internalized "if you die in the real world, you die in real life" yet.

On “Joykillers! The Sunburn

Justin Trudeau, 1928.

On “Carnage: 6.6 Million in Initial Jobless Claims, 10 Million Two Week Total

1% of deaths that hit cities harder than suburbia and results in 33% unemployment for 3-6 months is going to require a handful of changes (including new ways to think about employment gaps).

Plus there's the problem of "if your job can be done remotely, it's offshorable".

On “Chill Out: The Story Behind the DC Universe’s Most Important, Anonymous Figure

Kinda maybe?

I don't know of any that have done so with a modern (post 1986, I mean) sensibility.

On “Carnage: 6.6 Million in Initial Jobless Claims, 10 Million Two Week Total

In the absence of a vaccine/medication-that-works (and both of those have to be *AFFORDABLE*… like, somewhere around "free"), we're stuck with a disease that will make most cities in the US look like what's happening in NYC right now.

Maybe the best plan is to power through and get the herd immunity and, yes, people will die and not just the elderly and not just the otherwise infirm. But, let's face it, staying home is unsustainable too (especially taking into account the fact that only the upper and upper-middle classes can stay home and, from there, they have to rely on the lower middle classes and lower to act as hired help).

And so I'm back to my old question.

What kind of problem do we think we're in?

I'm hoping it's A. If it can't be A, I'm hoping it's between A and B. If it can't be between A and B, I'm hoping it's B.

But I'm worried it's C.

And if it's C, we're going to learn that a lot of our socially constructed concepts have durability problems.

On “Hammers and Hangnails

The debate is on how long we can realistically keep people shelter in place or social distancing without resorting to high levels of authoritarian force.

One of the things I've noticed is that doctors and nurses have started getting it.

There is a point at which doctors and nurses stop doing the job. Either because: They're sick/dead or they don't want to become sick/dead.

If we are okay with this thing just going through the population, taking out somewhere around Italian numbers of people, then we just need to prepare the country for 3.3 million dead. How hard could it be?

The problem is that there are a number of people who are not okay with 3.3 million dead. A shocking amount of them happen to be politicians.

But if we're okay with making San Francisco's numbers look like New York's numbers, then I guess we're okay with that.

Have at it, guys. Post pictures!

"

This isn't a political belief.

This is one of those sciencey ones.

If you encounter the Corona, you’ve got an X% chance to get it and, if you get it, a Y% chance to die. And, before you die, you have a good chance of spreading it to others.

I don't know what X is. I don't know what Y is. But I do know that X has this "exponential growth" thing going on and Y might be high enough to start with a whole number.

Let's assume that it's "low". One out of a hundred.

You're using 330 million people? That's 3.3 million dead.

And, as you say, we're only dealing with the United States here.

Is that too high of a price to pay?

Depends on the 3.3 million, I guess.

But, to veer back into the political, you wouldn't believe the policies I've heard advanced for death numbers much, much, much, much, much lower than 3.3 million.

"

How many people are going to stand for this? How much force will be necessary to get social distancing for a year or more?

Lee. I'm not the one making the rule that "if you encounter the Corona, you've got an X% chance to get it and, if you get it, a Y% chance to die. And, before you die, you have a good chance of spreading it to others."

I think it's the "good chance of spreading it to others" that has everybody pissed off. If you just wanted to get out on the floor and shake your ass and maybe die, I'm pretty sure that nobody would really mind that much. It's the getting out on the floor, shaking your ass, going home, and then giving it to three other people as you pass them in the cereal aisle picking up your Wheaties and then one of them dying while the other two give it to three other people that people are having a moral issue with.

And pointing out that you really, really, really want to get out and shake your ass on the dance floor is only going to change the minds of the most enthusiastic dance fans.

It's not going to change the mind of people who think "Hey... my cereal supplies are getting dangerously low!"

"

What the comments were basically about were how long can this situation continue for before people get antsy and say fuck it. There are lots of people on the net who seem to think that this can last for another 18 months if it must. I am highly skeptical. Is it just hardcore introverts who love shelter in place making this comments? Have these people met other people? The weather is about to get nice and this is going to make people want to go outside.

The virus is patient, Saul.

That's why these rules exist. Not because people want you to not go out and have fun with others, but because the virus might kill you. And even if it doesn't kill you, it might kill someone else through you.

And it sucks to stay inside.

But the virus is patient.

And pointing out that it's not fair and that it's kinda problematic and that it has disparate impact on certain parts of town will not change the fact that the virus is patient.

On “Chill Out: The Story Behind the DC Universe’s Most Important, Anonymous Figure

Awesome post.

In the original Death Wish, Charles Bronson's wife and daughter is assaulted by a group of thugs. The wife is killed, the daughter put into a coma.

What makes Death Wish such a grim movie is that we never see those thugs again. Charles Bronson goes out and he kills people like those who attacked his family, but never the ones who actually did.

I think Joe Chill works best when he's similar. The guy who kicked it off. But we never see him again.

We demand that justice be done and we find out what happened to him (even that he died! Inevitably given his lifestyle!), but, thematically, I think Joe Chill works best when he's merely gone.

On “Carnage: 6.6 Million in Initial Jobless Claims, 10 Million Two Week Total

Because too many people are too interested in not changing things. You know. "If we let them do this, they might sell raw milk and if they sell raw milk, children will die, so we can't change the regulations out of an abundance of caution".

You know what it's like talking to Chip about how the FDA needs to be more like Europe's FDA if we want our American Medical System to be more European?

That.